pn 889.Who's telling us how we should vote?

 

Political Roundup: Is it now all over for the Labour Government? BRYCE EDWARDS AUG 21   READ IN APP   Labour appears to be in something of an electoral death spiral. The four-point drop in last night’s 1News Verian poll to just 29 per cent – together with National’s bump up to 37 per cent – suggests that the gulf between the left and right blocs is now opening up, and will be difficult to reverse.

Polls and the media affect — you could even say, determine— the way we vote, or if we vote at all. Their influence is so strong that an argument could be to not allow political polls within two or more  months of an election.

How come that the Labour-National gap has widened is recent weeks? It's not, as Toby Manhire says, "as if Luxon or National are setting the electorate alight" Indeed, in the latest 1News poll, the combined party vote of National (37%) and Labour (29%) totals only 66%, the lowest for 21 years, and only 21% preferred Hipkins over Luxton (20%) which leaves 60% preferring neither. "I'm guessing," says Manhire, that the reaction of the remainder "is to curl up and hibernate until this is all over."

Poll results tip the balance, and start the slide, leaving voters feeling there is little that can be done about it. Headlines read "Is it now too late for Labour?" "Labour might need to capture the moon to turn this tide" and terms like "inevitable", "dissatisfaction skyrocketing" "bloodbath" and "death spiral" abound.

National party supporters do more and donate more, while Labour supporters do less, adding further to the "inevitability." It shapes the whole mood of the campaign, sapping momentum and motivation for those on the Government side. What’s more, when a party is losing, the despair can cause infighting and panic, which just makes everything much worse" (Manhire again). A low voter turnout would be a Labour nightmare.

It's not all the result of polls and unfriendly journalists, of course. Factors largely outside government control such as the economic recession and the high cost of living have played a part but the polls say that Labour is partly to blame, and the media has done little to address these underlying factors. 

Labour has also been trying hard to represent "middle New Zealand" and avoiding anything too "left" such as a capital gains or a wealth tax. The result has been not enough money to fix the problems of doctor and teacher shortage and youth crime. It's policies are too close to National's and it's support has drifted to the Greens, National and the undecided. 

Some of its past policies have been unrealized and much of what it now promises is piecemeal or targeted far into the future. Whether some radical new policy, such as free dental care, would make any difference is hard to say but one thing is certain: polls and the media have played a large part in shaping public opinion.   Is this as it should be in a democracy?

-- ACW

Footnote: Email from Chis Hipkins:

You might have seen that a new poll has landed and it’s showing we’re the underdog in the upcoming election.

Polls go up and down, but what will make or break this election is ensuring people get out to vote – and for that we need your support.

I will be campaigning hard for a shot at a full term as Prime Minister so we can keep driving New Zealand forward for everyone.

We have a positive plan for the future. It’s focused on giving cost of living relief, protecting superannuation and the winter energy payment, and guarding against cuts to hospitals and schools.

Your vote this election will have real consequences

New Zealand has a choice. A National-Act coalition that’s more focused on cutting jobs than creating them – or Labour with our record of low-unemployment and wages rising faster than inflation.

A choice between National’s unaffordable tax cuts for millionaires that are paid for by big cuts to schools and hospitals or Labour’s real and ongoing cost of living support for hard working New Zealanders.

We know that National and ACT’s tax cuts don’t add up unless they make deep cuts to public services and gut cost of living support. National will increase the cost of medicine, early child education and childcare, public transport and fruit and vegetables. And ACT are determined to sell state assets if they get their hands on power.

Now is not the time to put jobs, public services, and cost of living support for New Zealanders at risk.

We are going to give it everything we’ve got this election, there’s too much on the line.

Kiwis love to back an underdog, and they love a comeback even more.  

Thanks,
Chris

pn942. Comments: The Latest Roy Morgan Poll and the Political Power Game

Six polling companies keep us informed, amused,  amazed or sometimes bewildered (usually depending on how we feel about their findings) on the prospects of political parties to form a government at the next election, however distant, often with further questions on whether the country is "heading in the right (or wrong) direction" and preferred prime minister.

Two of them, 1News Kantar and Newshub Reid Research poll quarterly.  Three, Labour-leaning Talbot Mills, National-ACT-leaning Curia-Taxpayers' Union, and the independent ANZ Roy Morgan NZ Poll, conduct polls monthly. And Horizson  Polls occasionally conducts political polls.  

A lot can happen between now and the next election which must be held no later than 13 January 2024,  and will probably be held in December, twelve months away, but trends, measured month by month, are indicative.  (See below on how the media helps shape trends.)

The Roy Morgan poll

The Roy Morgan poll reported on 6 December and conducted in late November is bad news for Labour-Greens.  For the first time,  both men and women in each age group said they would vote National or ACT.  Previous polls generally showed women and younger voters favoured Labour-Greens over National-ACT.  More people (55%) thought the country was heading in the  "wrong" direction and Christopher Luxon was catching up a little on Jacinda Ardern.   Support for Labour was the lowest since June 2017.

It's not unusual for an incumbent party to become less popular over time.  The longer it's in power, the longer it can get some things wrong.  It is doing­—or not doing—things while all the Opposition has to do is sit and criticize. Or, if you're ACT's David Seymour, stand in parliament's question time and demand multiple answers from the PM to a slurry of questions. As she sat down having answered his questions the mike picked her up saying he was an "arrogant prick" — and so he proved he was when ungentlemanly he accepted her apologies to launch another burst of accusations.  

Another giant in the game

There is one other player in the game that we often neglect.  The media's comments on the polls  make their own news.  It rarely takes an independent stance and even more rarely analyses poll results.  It goes for the dramatised and often exaggerated headline which shows the government in a poor light.  I am not talking about the Mike Hosking broadcasters. We know their politics and how they attract advertisers to make money.  I'm talking 1News, Stuff, the NZ Herald and the mainstream media.  How they report poll results influences how people think, which in turn influences the next poll results.  They influence the "trends".  Do not underestimate the role of the media in shaping the political power game.

Here's the Roy Morgan poll results in full.  Digest, even if you can't enjoy.

-- ACW

pn941. Here's Another Poll that Means Absolutely Nothing (Updated).

 

Well that's not quite true. It does show the bias of the pollsters in their selection of headline and comment, both negative to Labour, when they could have chosen positive result. The report opened with:

"A new poll shows more people are "disappointed" and "angry" with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern than in 2020, though the Labour leader makes more people feel “comfortable” and less "nervous" than National Party leader Christopher Luxon.

"A Horizon Research survey of feelings about the two party leaders, provided exclusively to Stuff, showed that of more than 1000 people polled 35% felt “disappointed” and 28% “angry” about Ardern.

"The poll indicated public sentiment about Ardern had shifted since September 2020, when in the lead up to an election 14% felt “disappointed” and 11% “angry”. While Ardern also made fewer people feel “hopeful” in the latest poll, dropping from 46% to 20%, she made more people feel “proud”, “comfortable” and “pleased” than her opponent."

Click here to see the graphics and read the full article but before doing so, consider these other comments:

It is also not clear what the answers actually reveal. In one or two instances they compare how those polled  now feel about Ardern compared with those polled a year ago, but the graphs are used to compare Ardern with Luxton. The question should therefore have been "Do you feel more angry (etc.) with Ardern than with Luxton?".  An example of the actual questions asked would also have helped.

Why do pollsters ask such questions? To make moeny, of course, it's their job, but they also become part of the news and help to sway public opinion the way they choose. Not all are as bad as the other, and some polls are useful,  but this one is a shocker. 

It is true that people are influenced by their emotions when they vote, but they are also influenced by the policies and actions of the parties and how they affect them and others they care about such as relatives and the poor.  Teasing out emotions for special consideration seems rather vulgar. There are more worthwhile questions to ask.

-- ACW

pn939. Is Media Exaggeration Media Bias?

NZ Local Elections. Let's get this straight.   Less than 40% of eligible voters voted in our recent local elections, the worst in recent years. Ten per cent had not even registered to vote, turnout in poor suburbs like Ōtara was exceptionally poor and the general turnout was over-weighted by white, wealthy and ageing males.Auckland and Christchurch lurched right but some 27 mayoralties were returned unchanged.  Yet the media saw this as a harbinger of Labour's defeat in next year's general election thanks to inflation, the cost of living, the proposed three water legislation, Pākeha-Māori co-governance and the  cost of housing.   What you can see in a crystal ball if you shake it hard enough! Who now says the media is impartial?

The War in the Ukraine. On another front, the world media hailed the damage to the 19 km  Kerch Bridge linking mainland Russia to the Crimean peninsula and the recent advances by the Ukrainian army, while paying little heed to the fact that the damage to the 4-lane road and 2-track rail bridge is now partly repaired (completed by Friday), and the recent Ukrainian advances total a land area only a little greater than that of Auckland city, a minuscular fraction of the Donbas. 

It noted, however, in exended vivid detail that Russian shelling, in retailiation for the Kerch Bridge attack,  unhoused and killed a number of civilians, including women and children, thereby leaving readers to think civilians and not infrastructure were the primary targets.

If you want a more balanced world picture, add Al Jazeera and Russian TV to your reading list.

https://www.aljazeera.com/      

https://www.rt.com/

-- ACW

pn898. Polls, Media Bias and the Lack of Indepth News: What the media has not said

The tools of indepth journalism

POSTSCRIPT. See new "Quote of the Week" in  side bar on right.

Three recent polls show National has caught up and overtaken Labour. With support from  ACT National could become the next government.

Among the reasons given for the decline in Labour's popularity are concerns about the ever rising cost of living and law and order, in particular gangs and violent crimes (see links below). Labour has, and is, doing a lot about both but the public seems uninformed. 

There is also, apparently —and Chris Luxon agrees. Indeed, this might have been his argument repeated in the media— a feeling that Labour's good at talking but not at doing.

What the media has not said is that the drop in Labour's fortunes is also due the obvious bias in much reporting (witness Mike Hosking Newstalk ZB and the NZ Herald), and perhaps, even more important, the lack of any indepth news without which the public has difficulty forming any real opinions based in fact. 

pn845. Up the Pole. Ardern and Luxon Approval Ratings Meaningles, Misleading and Deceitful. UPDATED

Up the pole has various meanings including the literal, climbing on a pole, crazy and in difficulty.  

Up the poll (Updates highlighted)

There's something amiss in the reporting of the latest Kantar Political Poll.  1News  cites a statistic that does not appear in the Kantar report:  How well or how poorly those polled thought the PM and Christopher Luxon did their joh.  Where did 1News get its information?  I wonder why is it not in Kantar's full report?   Here are the results:

A useful guide to general and particular philosophies of those on the left and right of the political spectrum (pn713)

 

I found this analysis a most useful summary on the way left- and right-wing people think on a variety of issues. The analysis comes from Media Bias/Fact Check (MBFS), a U.S. independent online media outlet dedicated to educating the public on media bias and deceptive practices. It is a far more refined tool than MediaBias, our NZ attempt at the same thing that, to me surprisingly, found all media tested excepted two blogs, but including the NZ Herald and NewstalkZB, were left-leaning!  Even Mike Hosking would be surprised at this result.   For the Media Bias/Fact Check principles,  methodology and more click here.

According to MBFS, the general philosophy of the left is marked by collectivism: community over the individual. equality, environmental protection, expanded educational opportunities, social safety nets for those who need them, while those on the right espouse  individualism: individual over the community. limited Government with individual freedom and personal property rights. Competition.

On particular issues, their views also differed:

Hosking: Who does he think he is, dictating to the Prime Minister? (pn712)

I just can't believe this.  Hosking tells the PM to do what and when he tells her, or sod off. Be interviewed when he wants her, or not at all.   Not his exact words, but near enough.  

The PM did not ask to be interviewed. She was invited by the Newtalk ZB producers, but employee Hosking said if she isn't willing to do his regular slot, he doesn't want her at all. 

She "doesn't add anything" to the progamme.  Putting words into his listeners' mouths (and assuming they agree), he asks: 

Hosking's worst week (pn709)

So very, very close

 I'm not sure whether Mike Hosking is looking for a place in the Guinness Book of Records for the most abuses in one article or whether  he wants to try his luck before the Media Council, but he must have come close to both  this week with Mike's Minute: Could this be the worst week for the Government? 

A Warning about the Concentration of Media Ownership in NZ (pn708)

First, the author, then his writing.*

Bryan Gould  was born in Hawera and has Law degrees from Victoria University (B.A. Ll.B.) and Auckland University (Ll.M. first-class honours). A Rhodes scholarship in 1962  led him to Balliol College at Oxford, a futher degree in Law (the B.C.L., with first-class honours)  and careers  as an academic, a  diplomat,  a television journalist, and a Labour Party MP (1974-79; 1983-93).

Returning from the UK in 1994 he was Vice-Chancellor at the University of Waikato until his retirement in 2004, and has continued to be active in a number of tertiary education and research bodies.  He was made a Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit (CNZM) and in 2006 was awarded an Honorary Doctorate by the University of Waikato. He has written a number of books including  The Democracy Sham: How Globalisation Devalues Your Vote (2006), Rescuing the New Zealand Economy (2007), Myths, Politicians and Money: the Truth behind the Free Market (2013) and publishes a blog Bryan Gould.  He is currently working on a book on moral philosophy. 

In this posting he warns against the concentration and biases of media ownership, issues I've referred to in several posts, for example, pn576 and pn696.

Read, enjoy and heed by  clicking here.

* Note my practise of  saying something about authors. I think this puts their qualifications, experience, personal opinions and biases up front, leaving readers to decide the worth of what they write. So often, with the mainstream media, the former are ignored and the biases are hidden. -- ACW 

PM gives up NewstalkZB slot; rescheduling and not reducing her time with the media but that's not how some media see it (pn700)

UPDATE. Chris Trotter compares the old interviewer style of examiner with today's style of prosecutor, and thinks Jacinda correct in giving Hosking the metaphorical finger.

I really have more important things to do than criticise the media but if it continues as it has been, I have little  choice.  It must be challenged when its selection and comments on the news are so unbalanced and politically motivated. 

Today's NZ Politics Daily, presented by Bryce Edwards, is another example. It has 14 items on Jacinda no longer appearing weekly on Mike Hosking's early morning NewstalkZB programme. Almost all criticise her for doing so. 

• Hoskings says

Kioa te aroha: Nga Pāpā Māori/Just Love: Māori Dads (pn698)

Media giant Stuff had a Damascus revelation recently when it publicly apologized for its historic lack of objectivity and  sensitivity in reporting on Māori (see pn631).  Some thought it apologized too much, and blamed Pākehā for everything.  

You may well think the same about this  latest Stuff article from which I've quoted parts, with comments.  But if you pay close attention to what the early missionaries said about Māori fathers, consider the effects of colonisation and the nonsense about "warrior genes," and heed the stories of the fathers interviewed, you could well have your own Damascus moment.  Click here to read the full article.

pn631. Is apologising for racial wrongs really the point? UPDATED NOTE.

 

Media giant Stuff, after a protracted study of its own history, has announced that much that it has published on Maori has been racist.  It has apologised for this and introduced guidelines (a Treaty of Waitangi-based charter) to improve its record.

  Surprisingly, left-leaning journalist Chris Trotter has condemned these initiatives, saying apologising for your history is to admit you don't understand it (with which I disagree) and that the apology is likely to result in a White backlash, with which, unfortunately,  I cannot disagree.

pn573. John Armstrong struggles to make Jacinda look like a witch. (Updated P.P.S.by Bryce Edwards)

Semi-retired conservative columnist John Armstrong —usually noted for more robust argument—  strains at his breeches trying to turn Jacinda from a tooth fairy into a witch.  (See update P.P.S., below).

In her talks with the Greens, he says,  she is not magnanimous or motivated by familial loyalty but by "one thing and one thing only - Labour's self-interest, pure and simple." 

His evidence?  She "did not lift a finger ... to help her Government's support partner retain a presence in Parliament by withdrawing the Labour candidate in Auckland Central" (and) by ignored James Shaw's pleas that she do some "messaging" ... to urge Labour supporters to cast their party vote for the Greens."

Why? The wicked witch wanted to keep the Greens "firmly under her thumb" while falsely giving "the impression she is sharing power". Why?  Because "opinion polls show we don't like one-party governments." 

The witch will tell the Greens "in the nicest possible way that they can take it or leave it." James Shaw may be offered his pre-election job as Minister for Climate Change  because  "it would be a means of keeping the Greens inside the tent, rather than them being trouble outside." Nothing more for the Greens. She needs to fill Cabinet seats with her own.

Jacinda Ardern's Trial by Media. And Me Too Labour Blames Haworth, not Ardern

The PM and Nigel Haworth pn489

UPDATE. HAWORTH RESIGNS, ADERN APOLOGISES.

While still reeling from the punches and counter-punches that have recently rocked the Fiji political stage, I turned to NZ media pages hoping for some relief.  But no.

First up, was Simon Bridges after his recent five-day visit to China.  He apparently "set a new standard of cringeworthiness by  ... buttered up the Chinese Communist Party" (more kindly, some might say he was naive and diplomatic).

And then,  Jacinda Ardern who is a hundred times guilty by association in the Labour Party sex scandals.

As expected, the media dropped the Bridges' story for the far juicier, and more politically damaging, sex scandals.

The Alleged Bainimarama Assault on TVNZ1 News

pn479

This item about Voqere Bainimarama's alleged assault on  Pio Tikoduadua was a topic on last night's TVNZ 1 News, and has since spread to the social media.  This is what I wrote on Facebook in reply:

"This is not News. TVNZ took two weeks to report the incident that was reported in Fiji, on the social media and on my blog, www.crosbiew.blogspot.com, on 9th August, two weeks ago. 

"On TVNZ Barbara Dreaver said the Fiji Government refused to comment, but failed to mention that it would be improper for it to do so as the matter is before the Court, as the Attorney-General made clear at the time. 

 "Irrespective of whether Bainimarama is found guilty or not, this is either lazy or irresponsible journalism."

Recent Examples of Media Anti-Labour Coalition Bias

It is vital for a healthy democracy that the media keep the public properly informed. If you wonder whether this is the case in New Zealand, you may also care to ponder the political bias of our media which seems to be telling us this government is getting everything wrong.  Not once or twice, but over and over again.  Just look at the online print media headings over the past few days:

From the NZ Herald, one of NZME's media stable that reaches 3.2 million readers and viewers daily. NZME is largely Australian owned. Here's a list of its news, sports and entertainment profile.

Walking Backwards into Our Future: Prudence, Principle and "Foresight, Insight and Oversight"

A piece of string. Fixing the long neglected unfixed things.

pn452 

Q. How long into the future do we need to look and why do we avoid looking?  A. How long is a piece of string?

I was reminded of this riddle when I read in our local Whitby Newsbrief what candidates had to say while courting votes for the forthcoming local election.

Most candidates could be divided into pragmatists or idealists.

The former, the pragmatists, mostly older males in business, emphasising prudence.  Current Council policies are extending state care, hindering investment that leads to job creation, and bringing about the separation of racial groups.  Don't  spend money we don't have. Don't pay our civic employees a living wage because it will put up rates, making Maori and Pasifika especially vulnerable due to their lower disposable incomes.(a curious argument when most do not own a house, and some are on less than a living wage.)

And the latter, the idealists, generally younger people and women who placed more emphasis on principle than prudence. Pay the living wage and look for other ways to cut costs. Face up to the local challenges of climate change. Show genuine recognition and support for multiculturalism, Build key partnerships with civic groups.

Two Very Differing Polls, and TV1's Possible Biasses

pn410

When two polls taken within a week of each other come up with quite different results it's understandable that many people will question the value of polls, especially when the pollsters were wrong about the recent Australian election results.

Some said the difference was due to the (slightly) different poll dates when political interest was high due to National's budget leaks. Others said this would make no difference.

My Letter from the Labour Party

Preface
Am I the only one to note the irony of the Rich List being published on the same day as primary teachers strike for better pay and conditions, and a report delivers statistics on gender income inequality in the workplace? Pn31

I voted Labour-Greens in the last election, so last Friday's letter and the left-leaning in the blog should come as no surprise. 

 I wish media commentators would come clean and declare their political allegiances instead of pretending to be unbiased, leaving listeners and readers to think they are always impartial. I hope to publish a list of left and right-leaning and  "straight up" journalists and bloggers in the near future.

Hi Crosbie,

This is my last day as General Secretary – and what can I say other than thank you.

I have been humbled and honoured to serve the Labour Party as General Secretary for the last two and a half years. I have always tried my best to serve the Party, its members and our shared values and I thank all of you, our supporters and members, for allowing me this great privilege.

For me, the highlight of my time in this role has to be the 2017 General Election. It will go down as one of the most exciting (albeit extremely challenging!) we have faced as a Party in our 100-year history.

I’m proud to have played a small part in making our Party a stronger, more strategic and professional organisation.

Last year, we raised over a million dollars online towards our election campaign, from everyday New Zealanders – including you, Crosbie. Together with our governing partners, we were able to change the government.  

But we can’t be complacent for a single minute. We know we will have a fight on our hands in 2020.

Right now, our government is creating a better future for all New Zealanders. If we want this to continue, we must win the election in two years’ time and it’s crucial we start building for our 2020 General Election campaign now.

I know first hand how invaluable regular income is - it allows our Party to plan for the future based on what we know is coming in.

Today, on my last day as General Secretary, I’m starting a regular contribution of $40 a month to build our 2020 campaign fund.

As my final request for a donation, will you join me in starting a regular contribution too?

YES - I’ll join you

Thank you for being part of this incredible people-powered movement. I know our success in 2017 came down to you and the many thousands of Kiwis who generously gave their time and chipped in. So, for the last time, thank you.

Regards,

Andrew Kirton

General Secretary of the Labour Party

PS: Thank you for putting up with my many, many emails over the past couple of years!