The Doomsayers' Lament: the State of the NZ Economy

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A number of commentators would have us believe our economy is heading for the rocks. We're told we have a government that promises more than it can fulfil, a bunch of dreamy-eyed idealists, who are dragging us further into debt. 

Yet this is not the picture shown in IMF projections where our growth exceeds that of most countries or in the World Bank naming us "Number 1 in the world" for our business friendly environment.  "Congratulations,New Zealand!" writes Taylor Kee in Money Morning, "You’re the number one country in the world for exemplifying a business-friendly environment."

If you still have doubts, read Finance Minister Grant Robinson's pre-budget speech  at yesterday's Craigs Investors Conference.  

The Big Loan Company, IMF Recommendations

N227. THE BIG LOAN, ITS CRITICS, AND STOKING THE FIRE. Critics were never going to let Fiji's huge US$250m loan pass without comment. It provided much too good an opportunity to put the needle in.

Foremost among the more qualified critics is USP Economics professor Wadan Narsey whose primary criticism is not so much with the need for a loan (some US$150m will be used to pay off the pre-coup government's 2005 loan, made that much more expensive due to Fiji's dollar devaluation) but with its 9% interest rate and the amount being borrowed. He thinks a cheaper loan could have been obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) if Fiji had agreed to certain budgetary conditions.

Wadan said, “There is very strong conditionality attached to it [the IMF loan] and I suspect that the Banimarama government did not want to abide by the conditionality rules, I presume they would have had to cut back on their budget deficit which means they would have had to cut government expenditure, recurrent expenditure and especially I suspect on the military budget.”

Wadan's one presumption and two suspicions could be correct, but even without IMF prompting government has been taking steps to reduce spending and downsize government. No one outside Government and the IMF knows what the conditions were but the IMF team that visited Fiji in February last year when a $1 billion loan was being talked about, noted with approval the improved foreign exchange position, greater bank liquidity, and they seemed to approve Fiji's monetary and fiscal policies.

In April Government was waiting for a decision from the IMF on a US$459m loan that obviously did not eventuate, but it was nearly double the loan whose size is now criticized by Prof. Narsey.

Fiji's ability to repay its loans (much of which is for capital developments although Wadan claims it is for recurrent expenditure), generate employment and improve living standards rests heavily on growing its economy, and this in large part depends on business confidence and foreign and domestic investment. The 9% interest rate criticized by Wadan (and bewailed by the anti-government blogs that claim future generations will be left to pay for today's debts) is higher than may be expected because there is some risk in investing in Fiji, and the higher the perceived risk, the higher the interest rate.

Fiji is considered risky because of the coup, the military government and the delayed elections, but it is also considered risky because people like Wadan,  former politicians and others in Fiji, and  the overseas anti-government bloggers have , to a greater or lesser degree, done their level best to discredit all Government policies and actions and to obstruct those they can.  They are  part-owners of "the Big Loan Company."

They have spread biased, misleading, alarmist and untrue reports, urged Fiji citizens not to cooperate with Government in taking the country forward, and urged the international community not to change its stance on Fiji.

They have stoked the fires that makes loans, reforms and economic recovery more difficult, and in doing so they have played their part in making the loans their children will repay just that much more costly.

Australia and New Zealand must also, of course, share the responsibility. Their policies aimed at Fiji's "return to democracy" must by now be seen to have failed, but they have had a detrimental effect on Fiji's economy and the cost of its loans. 

No one would expect those opposing the Bainimarama government to change their fundamental position but reasonable people would expect other reasonable people to support some of the things it is doing, and to refrain from activities that harm the living of the people they claim they wish to support. -- Crosbie Walsh.


N228.  IMF SAYS STRUCTURAL REFORMS NECESSARY. The IMF's Executive Board  said structural reforms are necessary in Fiji to spur growth and help protect macroeconomic stability.

Following its latest consultations  the Board said:
(1) Fiji needed well designed land reform and the removal of price controls should support investment and the diversification of economic activity;
(2) Civil service reform and adjusting tariffs for public services will help contain contingent liabilities and should increase efficiency;
(3) Retraining programmes and additional targeted social assistance to soften the social impact of redundancies and higher tariffs; and
(4) Help Fiji  from development partners, including technical and expert advice, to help design and implement these important structural reforms which are critical to improving the overall business environment. [This is where Australia and New Zealand really could help.]

The IMF noted that fiscal deficit (government expenditure exceeds revenue) is estimated to have fallen to 3.6% of GDP in 2010 from 3.9% in 2009. The improvement is due to Government's  freeze in hiring in the public service, lower-than-budgeted capital spending and stronger-than-projected VAT receipts but losses and mismanagement of the Fiji Sugar Corporation  have to led to pressures on the budget.

The deficit was financed mostly by the Fiji National Provident Fund as commercial banks remained near their sovereign lending limits. Central government debt at the end of 2010 is estimated at close to 56%  of GDP. Contingent fiscal liabilities are estimated at 17.6 percent of GDP at the end of 2010 and includeguarantees on bonds issued by the Fiji Development Bank.

N229. SUGAR:  THE IMF HAS ADVISED GOVERNMENT to quickly finalise the restructuring of the Sugar Corporation and then divest the troubled Fiji Sugar Corporation within three years,to bolster the economy The FSC was delisted from the South Pacific Stock Exchange last month after a profit loss of $US175 million last financial year. The IMF statement also suggested reforms to the Fiji National Provident Fund to increase economic sustainability.

Tonga is Okay, Lowry Panel Mixed bag, IMF Welcome FSC Reforms, Welfare Goes Electronic

TONGA IS OKAY. On Monday I published a short piece based on a Sunday Star-Times article (republished in Stuff) in which I drew parallels between Tonga's laws prohibiting street marches, the King's power to dismiss parliament and similar legislation and the situation in Fiji.My purpose was to show that many Pacific nations cannot be compared with NZ, and that our government needs to recognize this. I now wish to distance myself from the original article and what I wrote about it.  I do not agree with Dr Sitiveni Halapua that Tonga is "still technically under military rule." Serious riots broke out in Nuku'alofa in 2006 and the emergency regulations  passed then are still in place but they refer only to a defined part of Nuku'alofa. This is hardly "military rule." Street marches do require prior permission but this is normal practice everywhere and is not the equivalent of PER or the prevention of the Methodists politicised conferences. Similarly, Clive Edward’s suggestion that the augmented military might step in if the politicians don’t do the right thing after the election is pure speculation and some could say mischievous.  I thank Prof Ian Campbell for these corrections.  Fakamolemole 'aupito.

The map.  Click to enlarge. This is a good map of Tonga because it shows the whole group from Niuafo'ou in the north to 'Ata in the south, and Tonga's overlapping proximity to the Lau Group where Tongan chief Ma'afu ruled at the time of Cakobau and Cession.

THE KERR-DOBELL-FRAENKEL-MEO PANEL.  "On 8 November, the Lowy Institute for International Policy co-hosted the Fiji and Vanuatu Update 2010 with the Crawford School of Economics and Governance, Australian National University. As part of the 2010 Update a distinguished panel was assembled to discuss these very challenges and to discuss Fiji’s international relations, politics and governance, in relation to Australia."

Panelist were the Hon Duncan Kerr (former Permanent Secretary of Pacific Afairs in the Kerr Labor Government) who advocated "Strategic Re-engagement", Graeme Dobell, (journalist and Lowry Interpreter) who spoke of his concerns about the "New Order" before and after 2014;  Dr Jon Fraenkel (ANU and formerly USP) who  said engagement has been tried before, and Rev Dr Jovili Meo *formerly Principal of the Pacific Theoloogical College in Suva and now Chairman of the the Fijian National Conference, Uniting Church Australia) who thought the military was the cause of all the coups and that the military way was not the Fijian way which was change by consensus. The moderator was Jenny Hayward-Jones, Program Director, Myer Foundation Melanesia Program, who provided a useful summary of events from 2006.   The link to the panel discussion is provided in tomorrow's Weekend Readings together with other interesting items (see bottom of post.)


IN CASE YOU MISSED IT. New quotes are published every weekend, usually on Sunday, in the right sidebar. Quote for the Week November 14 "Justice and power must be brought together, so that whatever is just may be powerful, and whatever is powerful may be just." -- Blaise Pascal (1623-1662).

IMF WELCOMES FSC REFORMS. The International Monetary Fund supports Fiji's efforts to improve and develop its ailing sugar industry with reform framework.In a release, the IMF encouraged government to seek international and professional opinion to help in the development of the reform plan.

“The mission welcomed the efforts of the Sugar Task Force to develop a sugar industry reform framework and encourages the government to seek best professional advice available globally to help develop and implement a detailed reform plan.”

Meanwhile, the sugar task force recently enlisted the help of a consulting firm in New Zealand to undertake an independent review of its performance and capital structure.The firm will also identify an appropriate capital structure for the Fiji Sugar Corporation and reforms needed for the industry.

WELFARE GOES ELECTRONIC. Some 24,000 people receiving Family Assistance will soon be able to draw their allowance at Westpac ATM machines. PS for Social Welfare Govind Sami said Westpac Bank had won the tender and would make no transfer charges. Westpac's Senior Manager Government Business Bena Ralogaivau said the recipients will have no bank fees and the accounts would earn interest.“It’s an opportunity for them to join the banking environment and it’s also an opportunity for them to make use of the electronic banking that’s going to be spread out across Fiji and we hope that they take on this and use the functionality in it in the future because it will actually help them create savings and help them spend their dollar further and we welcome them.”

WEEKEND READING. ♦ Allen Lockington Column ♦ Fiji Waters Run Deep: the Bottled Water Affair ♦  Why Did Qarase Send Ridgway Packing? ♦ Dallas Swinstead talks about the Fiji Times and Government. ♦ The Kerr-Dobell-Fraenkel-Meo Panel.

Fiji Not a Lousy Place to Live, EU Mission Report, Economic Update, IMF Wants VAT Increase, Two Chiefly Forked Paths

VISIT THE RECORD 37 COMMENTS TO YESTERDAY'S POSTING. 

SEE NEW QUOTE OF THE WEEK IN THE RIGHT SIDEBAR.

FIJI HIGHER ON HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX. With the deluge of recently reported world indices, each of which has shown Fiji to be a lousy place to live, it is pleasing to see the recently released 2010 UNDP Human Development Index report shows Fiji has improved its ranking from 108th out of 169 countries to 86th. The composite index is widely regarded as the most meaningful measure of the quality of life because it takes into account factors such as life expectancy, education, gender equality, income and income equality.  The HDI has been used since 1990 as an alternative or supplementary measure of national development, until then measured solely by economic criteria such as Gross National Product (GNP), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and rates of economic growth.

Norway ranks number one in the world as the best country to live followed by Australia and New Zealand. Countries more comparable to Fiji, and their 2010 ranking, include Jamaica 80, Tonga 85, Maldives 110, Fed.States Micronesia 103, Indonesia 108, South Africa 110, Timor Leste 120, Solomon Is 123, PNG 137. Download the 2010 Report by clicking here.

EU MISSION ENDS VISIT. Last year Fiji lost its status as a fish exporter to the EU after their officials found deficiencies in Fiji's quality inspection authority. The situation is now thought to be rectified and Fiji hopes to again export fish to EU countries. Fiji's Solander Fishing Company has spent heavily on fixing its ships and five have now been classified as A-grade. In 2007, Fiji's total canned and frozen fish exports were worth around $100million, $3m more than the year before. For their overall report click here.

OVERALL ECONOMIC UPDATE. The Reserve Bank has announced that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection of 1.8% for 2010 is expected to be revised downwards due largely to declines in the agriculture sector, especially sugar. Weak performances were also experienced in transport, storage & communications, health and social work, real estate and business services and the community, social and the personal services sectors. The only industries that contributed positively through higher export values to this year’s growth so far were tourism, gold, timber and fish. Inflation fell to 1.1 percent in September, a marginal decline from 1.2 percent in August.The 2010 inflation forecast has been revised down to 4.0 percent.

IMF WANTS VAT INCREASE.The International Monetary Fund has recommended that VAT rates be increased in order to contain fiscal deficits and ensure a sustainable level of public debt which, at about 73% of GDP, constrains government's ability to cushion the economy against future shocks. So far Government has refused to increase VAT because it places a disproportionately heavy  burden on the poor who, unlike the better-ff,  have little to no discretionary expenditure.

TUI NAMOSI AND RO TEIMUMU. Former SDL Minister and Namosi high chief Ratu Suliano Matanitobua  says the December 2006 Coup has happened and it is time to move on. He said he has left the events of the past in the past and he knows his people will suffer if  he continues to work against government. He says he has made the decision for the sake of his people. He is calling on his people to support government and help move the country forward.

Ratu Suli's comment, made at last week's Provincial Council meeting, is ambiguous. He is calling for his people to support Government but seems to be doing so only because he thinks that if they don't, they'll miss out on development money. As far as I know there is no instance of this having happened to any province. If accurately reported, one wonders whether his approach is the same as that of Ro Teimumu who also last week welcomed Government's development work in Rewa province but continued to oppose the government in every other way.

Several government initiatives, including the Land Use Decree and the equal distribution of land lease money, will see chiefs, who used to take a bigger share, more than somewhat out of pocket. I wonder how many chiefs are playing liu muri.

Rumour-Mongers Got One Right, Tonga Okay, MSG Special Meeting, Sect Children Start School, Sugar Production Update, IMF Report, Price Anomalies

See new QUOTE FOR THE WEEK in the right sidebar, and scroll down to the Weekend Readings you may have missed.  Notice also the new blog description above and the new countdown to election facility in the lift sidebar. 

Big fleas have little fleas upon their backs to bite 'em, 

And little fleas have lesser fleas, and so ad infinitum.

COMING BACK TO BITE THEM. Remember the Michael Field story a few weeks back? Unrest brewing in Fiji. Esala Teleni and Pita Driti "dumped" and "sent on indefinite leave." Tevita Mara "removed" as commander of the 3rd Fiji Infantry Regiment "amid wild rumours of further action." Well, Driti and Mara are back from leave and Teleni has been appointed Fiji's next amabassador to China. The latest is from Victor Lal on CoupFourPointFive. Reserve Bank Governor Sada Reddy has been stood down.

"According to highly reliable sources inside the Reserve Bank of Fiji, Reddy had allegedly transferred thousands of dollars to his private bank account in New Zealand last year, shortly before he devalued the valueless Fijian dollar ... More information as we get it." I don't know about the transfer allegation but he's presently on holiday in New Zealand where he has permanent residence and obligations to meet. So I'd expect him to be transferring money on a regular basis." Over to you Victor and Michael.  I hope you will confirm or correct the information as you get it. If you accept bets, I'd be happy to be paid in "valueless Fijian dollars."  Oh, and Teleni, don't do a Falun Gong in China.

THE LATEST FROM C4.5. Their reporting could be improving. In a recent posting their unsubstantiated rumours are no longer stated as facts from usually reliable sources.  Now they have "tips." They surprised themselves with the last one — "One of the tips given to Coupfourpointfive in the past two days has eventuated... " Teleni has been made Ambassador to China. But they sought "confirmation" before publishing it. "We were unable to run it then but its confirmation today, suggests other information given to us is also credible." And the other credible information? Lands Minister Netani Sukanaivalu is "gone"; Brigadier Mohammed Aziz is to be sent on leave, and Neumi Leweni will be put in charge of RFMF Nabua."  But still no correction of previous false tips, and no further mention of Sada Reddy's "absence from office."

 TONGA OKAY BUT NOT FIJI. Concern is apparently growing that Tonga could be headed towards violence as a fragile balance of power is threatened by the country's first democratic elections. Cited are the "emergency powers ..still in place ...after riots in 2006; the King's control and build up of his defence service to use if the 17 candidates elected fail to form a government."

Tongan MP and former police minister Clive Edwards says the new MPs needed to exercise caution. If they [the politicians] don't go along as expected, the army may be used.  Election candidate and Hawaii-based Pacific Islands Development Programme director Dr Sitiveni Halapua said the country was still technically under military rule. Groups had to get permission for any political gathering and a group of church leaders was not allowed to march to pray for the election, which showed, Halapua said, "the power play and the restrictions". -- Based on a Stuff article.

While one may be surprised that Australia and NZ did not impose travel bans years ago, it is to be hoped they will not repeat their Fiji mistake if the present situation does not unravel as they wish. 

SOLOMONS TO HOST MSG MEETING. Solomon Islands PM Danny Philip will host a special Melanesian Spearhead Group meeting on December 15 which will see the transfer of the chairmanship from Vanuatu to Fiji in a traditional reconciliation ceremony.This is likely to involve traditional chiefs from both countries.Mr Philip  said his government is honoured to host the event upon request from the current MSG Chair, Vanuatu PM Edward Natapei.He said engagement with Fiji is one of his government’s policies and the MSG meeting is in line with his views on approaching the Fiji issue.

SECT CHILDREN START SCHOOL. Forty years ago a sect leader in Vatukacevaceva village to the north of the Nakauvadra mountains, the legendary habitat of ancient Fijian gods, founded the Kadrala Church which did not allow children to go to school. This must have been known to the education authorities. The village is only ten kilometres down the road from Rakiraki but it was not until a few weeks ago that government stepped in and banned the church from operating because members' children were not allowed to attend school.The village Turaga ni Koro said, "The church disbanded after talks with Government officials and it is now no longer in existence. All the children are now in school and the members are actively involved in village work." This also is part of the Roadmap.

CANE PRODUCTION DOWN. In the first four months of the crushing season (June — September) cane production fell 9.1% and sugar production 13.9% compared with the same period last year. Crushing for the 2010 season ends at Penang (Rakiraki) Mull on the 19th and the Lautoka Mill on the 25th of this month. The date for Labasa has not yet been determined.

IMF SHOWS CONFIDENCE IN GOVERNMENT REFORM PLANS.The International Monetary Fund has shown confidence in Fiji’s ability to meet most of its reform programs without the Stand By Arrangement Loan.The IMF team led by Jonathan Dunn  applauded the initiative of the government to implement certain changes but urged Government to remove price controls, saying that while the idea "is notable, it is not an effective means of reaching those that really need the assistance." He also thought they would drive investors away.

Minimum interference by government in the economy is part of the IMF ideology, and if the controls were universally applied they could deter investors. But the controls are limited to basic needs items and they are arrived at after extensive discussions with importers, wholesalers and retailers. I would see this as healthy government-private sector interaction. Mr Dunn would have been more helpful had he pointed to more effective strategies to assist the poor and low paid working people.

PRICE CONTROL ANOMALIES which handicap some local manufacturers will be addressed  soon. Flour Mills of Fiji representative Ram Bajeet told a recent forum that the price controls resulted in the manufacturer getting a negative margin whereas the retail trade get a positive margin. "There are those who import and sell here, and they would get a high margin whereas those that bring unprocessed products, process them here and sell them here would receive a negative margin.” Commerce Minister Sayed-Khaiyum agreed and said the matter would be referred to the Commerce Commission.

Robin Hood Casino, Adding Up the Roadmap, Namosi Supports Govt, IMF Thanked, Internet Prices, School Theft

SEE NEW QUOTE FOR THE WEEK in the right sidebar.

SEE the many thoughtful and helpful COMMENTS in the WEEKEND READINGS. 

CASINO FUNDS FOR POVERTY ALLEVIATION. All funds government will earn from the operation of Fiji’s first casino that will only be used by tourists will go towards poverty alleviation,  says PM Bainimarama. It is expected the casino will boost tourism, especiallt from China. The Methodist church has told FBC News they will comment once they have studied the proposal.

A Tenders Board  will be appointed soon to scrutinise tenders for the proposed casino. Government has invited expressions of  interest for the development and operation of its first Casino from internationally successful and reputable full-casino developers/operators. The EOI submissions close on 30th November.

THE PIECES ADD UP. The opening of the new Tukavesi dental clinic in Vanua Levu is not exactly earth-shattering news. It will only serve 15 villages, 55 settlements and five estates located some way between Labasa and Savusavu, and it only cost government $30,000.

But it's part of a bigger scheme to improve primary health care and deliver better health services, and a bigger scheme to develop rural areas in Fiji.  Look at the list below of other recent and ongoing developments.

They are part of the overall scheme laid out in the Roadmap: concentration on infrastructural developments to 2012, and constitutional and electoral reform processes from then until the 2014 Elections.  Hopefully, by that time Fijians will have a clearer idea of what to expect from a government and will cast their votes accordingly.

• $150m invested into Nadarivatu Hydro project greatly reducing the dependency of fossil fuel. Estimated decrease of 20%. The project is expected to open in August 2011. 
• Opening of 9kms of  new road on Taveuni $900,000. The road is due to open mid November and will greatly improve the lives of dalo farmers in Vuna and Waimaqera
• The Lagi to Nakusere road which opens soon,  at a cost of $850,000 giving access  to villages in Cakaudrove and Macuata. The road also gives access to 12 other coastal villages.  The road has huge benefits in reduction of travel costs, and the ease access to transport.
• Road upgrading from Korovou Town to Waito is valued at $19m. 
• $3m invested in additional water pumps in Labasa, allowing greater access to clean drinking water. 
• Nuknuk settlement at Tabia outside Labasa gets electricity. The cost of the project was approximately $250,000 
• More that $6m currently being spent on electrification projects in 52 rural communities. $29.3m has currently being spent this year on these projects. 
• Naikawaqa village get electricity at a cost of more than $170,000.  In all 48 households and 259 residence get light for the first time. 
• Villages in Deladamanu and Natoaika in Naitasiri celebrate the commissioning of power to villages and schools.
• New sewerage treatment plant to be constructed at a cost of $23m this will greatly enhance investment in Savusavu. 
• $3m to build 200 homes approved in the first phase of rehabilitation works in the North after cyclone Thomas
• Launch of chicken farm at Drue on Kadavu.

And these are just the developments mentioned in last Saturday's Fiji papers!

NAMOSI SUPPORTS GOVERNMENT. Namosi, one of Viti Levu's less accessible provinces, will "continue to support the Government and whatever initiatives it will bring about to steer them forward in terms of development. This will benefit the people for better living standards,” said the Tui Namosi, Ratu Suliano Matanitobua, at the opening of the Namosi Provincial Council meeting last week. He also thanked the Roko Tui Namosi and his officers for their work assisting the people of Namosi in line with government’s intention in terms of development in the province.

The Tui Namosi said that if Namosi wants to prosper then parents and vanua elders need to make  education a top priority. He urged his people to consume kava wisely and utilise resources like idle land for better returns to be able to send children to school.-- Based on 2010 No:1799/MOI

FRB GOVERNOR THANKS IMF. Sada Reddy has thanked the International Monetary Fund for its advice and assistance in improving the country's macroeconomic situation.The IMF gave Fiji US$93 million in the second half of 2009 and Reddy says without the assistance the pressure on Fiji’s balance of payments would have been far more serious.He says the injection boosted foreign reserves and greatly helped restore confidence to Fiji’s economy and financial system. Current foreign reserve levels are now at US$630 million, equivalent to over 3.8 months of imports.

Reddy said Fiji is making progress on the IMF recommendations following on-going consultations for a possible Stand-By Arrangement funding support by the Fund. These include the removal of interest rate caps on commercial banks interest rates, relaxation of capital controls, consolidation of government finances and the review of the Reserve Bank of Fiji Act to enhance the autonomy and independence of the Central Bank.

INTERNET PRICES COULD PLUMMET 50%. This is the prediction of Commerce commission Chairman, Dr Mahendra Reddy speaking at the launch of TFL's (Telecommunication Fiji Ltd) direct line access to the Southern Cross Cable Network. He said Internet Service Providers will now have to compete with each other by offering more reasonable internet charges to its customers. Communications Minister, Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum said Government recognized that Fiji has very low internet penetration and expects the direct connection and lower prices will bring the rate up.

ALLEGED THEFT BY FORMER MARIST PRINCIPAL. Police are investigating this alleged theft of over $100,000. Many Old Boys raised questions about the alleged theft at their recent Reunion, including the Prime Minister who wanted to ensure proper action was taken to recover the missing money.

Obama's Best Wishes, Qarase Government's Loan, Netani's Fate, RadioNZInternational

OBAMA CONGRATULATES FIJI on 40 years of Independence.  Click here.

MASSIVE LOAN MUST BE REPAID; EVEN BIGGER LOAN SOUGHT. International Monetary Fund (IMF) resident representative Yongzheng Yang confirmed yesterday  that Government has by September next year to repay the US$150m (F$300m) plus 7% interest (F$21m) on the loan  taken out in September 2006 by the Qarase-led government. Government is reported to be seeking a standby arrangement with the IMF for F$1billion to support Fiji’s reforms and debt obligations. “The repayment of the bond loan increases Fiji’s financing needs next year and this is one consideration behind Government’s request for a standby arrangement (SBA) with the IMF,” Mr Yang said. “The IMF would factor in this financing need should an SBA eventuate.”

WHAT SEALED NETANI'S FATE.  "Elementary, my dear Rika" left this comment on your post "Chaudhry Breaks PER: So What? Rika a Goner...

"One statement above all explains Netani Rika's untenable position, not just in recent months but for the last couple of years. It came at the time of the expulsion of his then boss, Evan Hannah, and provides a clear insight into the Napoleonic scale of his ego. He told ABC Australia that the Fiji Times had effectively "become the opposition" in Fiji and despite Hannah's expulsion, was "determined to continue its struggle" against the regime. Not to report the struggle - its legitimate role - but lead it on behalf of the people.

"This is when this guy crossed the line and sealed not just his own fate but the fate of his proprietor, the biggest media mogul the world has ever seen. In the eyes of the dictator, the Fiji Times was no longer just a routine nuisance but had declared itself an active political player. How Rika thought he could ever prevail under the circumstances is astonishing. The only possible explanation is that his heroic ego is matched by something that must have come from his religious upbringing - a persecution complex and tendency to regard martyrdom as a friend. A sad but ultimately inevitable demise. And a lesson for both News Limited and Mac Patel of the dangers of placing any newspaper in the hands of an ideologue pursuing a destructive personal crusade."

RadioNZInternational: NEVER MISSES A THING. The  big new from Fiji for Tuesday was that a Fiji Bureau of Statistics survey had found the estimated value of construction work was just over US$30 million, a decrease of 3% over the previous quarter. This was quite a scoop for our publicly owned radio station. The story pushed aside other news: the possible lifting of PER, the country being declared free of typhoid, the upcoming Fiji Day celebrations, and even the story of the Toowoomba woman who arrived in Nadi with 20 of the $20 stolen bank notes. A scoop indeed! RNZI is to be applauded for its tenacious pursuit of such valuable information and for contuing balanced reporting on Fiji.   Excuse the sarcasm but sometimes one has to comment on such things.

Sugary Mess, IMF Money, Itaukei Empowerment, CSO Electricity, More Termites

ANONY-MOUSES, PLEASE!  "Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "Military Spies in Oz; Media and Blogs. "Please re-post with a pseudonym. Anonymous comments will not be published.

JOKE OF THE WEEK. "Commodore Frank is closely guarded by an elite group of armed body guards [and] travels in an armoured vehicle convoy." -- Dr Mark Hayes, Australian journalism tutor. [Seeing this, a reader wrote: "Why don't you ask when he was last in Fiji?]

MOST "BACKFIRING" HEADING. "Recalcitrant Oink is a Truly Ignorant Cretin."-- anti-Government blog Solivakasama. A not untypical heading that says much about its composer.
                                            
SUGARY MESS: GOVERNMENT PROPS UP SUGAR INDUSTRY. Government is a major shareholder in the sugar industry but instead of reaping dividends, it's been propping up the industry though direct loans and guarantees that enable the FSC to raise other loans that, hopefully, will result in successful restructuring, mill upgrading, and a return to profitability. During the 2010 financial year, ending in May, total losses amounted to $173.4 million, the industry's highest ever.

The loans include a $US50.4m borrowing contract from the EXIM Bank of India, signed in 2005; $22.5m from the Reserve Bank, $44m from FNPF, $19.1m from the Bank of Baroda, $1.4m from the Bank of South Pacific, and a $1.4m bank overdraft from Westpac.

The Corporation made a $8.4m supplementary cane payment during the year funded by term finance from the Sugar Cane Grower’s Fund,the interest costs to be met by Government. Government has also approved a guarantee up to $120 million, valid until 31st May 2012, to enable the Corporation to raise short term loan finance to meet its working capital requirements. Total funding requirements for the 2010 and 2011 financial years ending  in May 2012 are projected to be around $170 million. In the next 12 months the FSC needs to repay debts of over $60 million. -- Based on The Fiji Sugar Corporation Limited  Annual Report for the year ending in May 2010 as reported in Fiji Village.

SUGAR WOES CONTINUE. Harvesting in Ba and Tavua intended for Baa's Rawawi Mill has been suspended until further notice.Truck drivers are being urged to take the leftover cane to the Penang Mill in Rakiraki or the Lautoka Mill before the cane deteriorates further.

IMF MONEY. International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank representatives were in Fiji this week to discuss economic reforms and a possible $1billion IMF loan to boost its economy.

A previous obstacle in accessing the funding was that Fiji was listed as a Tier Three country in human trafficking. Its  rating has now improved to tier two. The IMF has previously noted the improved turnaround in the foreign reserves position and the return of liquidity into the banking system. They also expressed support for the policies put in place and were complimentary on the alignment of monetary and fiscal policy directions. The PM said that "working with IMF and the World Bank would help Fiji tap into a significant pool of global expertise, technical assistance and funding at concessionary rates to undertake the much needed reforms."

ITAUKEI MINISTRY DEVOLUTION AND EMPOWERMENT. The Itaukei Ministry will soon appoint 14 new senior assistant Roko Tui, one for each province, in order to decentralize its work, give Provincial Councils more independence, and improve services. 

Provincial Services Manager, Timoci Namotu, says this will increase staff satisfaction and empowerment, and with more decisions at provincial level, the quicker the response to requests. “HQ will do the corporate plans and the provinces will do their own business and ongoing individual work plans, he said. This will also make Provincial Council offices more responsible and accountable.

He said, “It started in 2007 but it didn’t work out as we expected.  We now get them accustomed to much more empowerment activities and lectures as well so decisions they make are educated ones, not based on emotion but concrete data.” -- Based on 2010 No:1523/MOI.

ELECTRICITY AND CSOs.  The Fiji Electricity Authority will soon increase its charges but FCOSS's (Fiji Council of Social Services) Hassan Khan has recommended to the Commerce Commission that CSO (civil service organization) and school charges should all have a special,lower rate.  Why? Because “Civil society organisations are making huge contribution to the social and economic development of Fiji, particularly in the areas of education and community, welfare through schools and other services [and they generally do so] at a lesser cost in relation to Government and the private sector and often times from voluntary fundraising and from international donor agencies." Less money spent on electricity and telephone bills, he said, and "a lot more poor people could be helped" by the CSOs. He has a point! -- Based on 2010 No:1525/MOI.

TERMITES NOW IN LABASA. The Asian Subterranean termite that has caused tremendous damage in Lautoka have now also been found in Labasa. So far the infestation seems confined to only eight houses in one settlement. A team from the Kadivuka Operation is to being sent to the North to carry out the eradication and awareness programme.

WEEKEND READING. Allen Lockington's column, Micro-Finance Pitfalls, Resolving Resource-Based Conflicts, Saving or Cremating the Sugar Industry, Bloggers Unhelpful, and more. Why not also read the many comments to this week's postings? One post had 27 comments, a record.

Forum MCG Meeting, Text 01, FNPF Loss, Typhoid, Charter, Church-State and Chiefs

FLOP OR NOT? The Auckland Forum meeting yesterday closed with little obvious change in the Forum's stance on Fiji, but channels are to be kept open and the Ministerial Contact Group will visit Fiji within the next five weeks to "see things on the ground." I shall have a substantial opinion piece on what messages can be taken from the meeting today or tomorrow.

(G) PM'S 01 TEXT SERVICE a HIT.So far 237 queries have been received from the public on the Prime Minister's 01 text service. Most queries and complaints were about water supply, the time police took to process cases. and road conditions. Agencies are given 24 hours to responde or take action, and if they don't a message is sent to the respective permanent secretary.  Condensed from Ministry of Information release. photo:mediabistro.com

"It's the PM's eyes and ears on the ground,"says Personal Staff Officer PMO, Capt Rokoura, adding that the 01 unit "is essentially a command, monitoring, coordinating unit. We monitor, we coordinate, and we direct, that's why it's effective." The public can also email the PM at pmsoffice@rocketmail.com

WHY THE FNPF LOSS? The Fiji National Provident Fund has announced a net loss of $181.15 million for the 2009 financial year http://www.fijilive.com/news_new/index.php/news/show_news/26033 saying it would have recorded a net surplus of $146.49 million if it had not been for the fund’s recently announced $320 million write off.

TOURISM AND TYPHOID. Tourism Fiji chairman Patrick Wong said there is "no cause for alarm [for tourists] at this stage as the typhoid outbreak is confined to Navosa only and the Ministry is closely monitoring the situation." No new cases have been reported in the area but there are previously unreported cases in Wainunu, Bua province, in Fiji's other "big" island, Vanua Levu.

EMPLOYERS SAY FNPF UNREASONABLE. The Fiji National Provident Fund is going too far in trying to recover $7.65million in contributions owed by employers says the Fiji Employers Federation.[I'd be interested to know if readers agree.]

OFF-SHORE DEBT THREAT TO ECONOMY.The IMF thinks the US$150m debt taken out by the Qarase government will be difficult to repay next year unless GDP and export growth improve, and this needs economic reforms that may not go down well with the public.

CAKAUDROVE, REWA AND THE CHARTER. Cakaudrove Provincial Council reports that it will decide soon on whether to support the People's Charter. Rewa has yet to decide whether to discuss the matter. Many provinces now support the Charter. Government says it respects their deicision but the PM previously warned those who do not support the work of government to step aside and not try to stand in its way.

STATE-CHURCH RELATIONS AND THE GREAT COUNCIL OF CHIEFS. Scroll down to new Na Sala Cava questions on these topics. For earlier topics, click on the link to our companion blog in the left column.

Ticks for Key, Sevele, Bainimarama; AI & IMF Reports; Import Substitution; Corruption - Again

(o) A TICK FOR JOHN KEY. NZ has relaxed its ban on Fiji government personnel by allowing Foreign Minister Ratu Inoke Kubuabola to attend a meeting today with the PI Forum Ministerial Contact Group (MCG) comprising the prime ministers of Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea. The group will prepare a report on progress towards democracy in Fiji to be put to the 15-nation Pacific Islands Forum meeting in Port Vila, Vanuatu, in August.  Fiji is attending thanks to an invitation, agreed to by other Ministers, from meeting chairman and Tongan PM Feleti Sevele.

(+) ... AND ONE FOR BAINIMARAMA. The PM gave villagers in Lau his mobile phone number and told them to contact him if they are not getting service from any government department. This must be a first for any PM anywhere.

(-)THE AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL REPORT 2010 uses the present continuous verb tense (-ing) to describe Fiji's transgressions when the past tense(-ed) would generally have been more appropriate.  You can't continuously suspend a constitution or dismiss a judiciary?

Fiji, it reported, is  "witnessing ongoing human rights violations and impunity; with the military-led Government suspending the constitution; dismissing the judiciary; imposing emergency regulations to stifle media dissent; and implementing a policing policy that granted impunity to those who perpetrated domestic violence." What policing policy?

The report, however, did broaden its usual definition of justice to include "being able to go to school, to have access to clean water and to obtain decent health care... the rights that we need to live our lives in dignity.” These shortcomings are apparently evident in other Melanesian countries.

New Zealand also came in for some criticism about "discrimination of Maori by the Foreshore and Seabed Act, risks posed to asylum-seekers due to the new Immigration Act, and the privatisation of prisons." I didn't know we had yet privatised our prisons. AI does a lot of good worldwide, but the latest report shows a lack of balance towards Fiji. It under-estimates the task of providing basic services in PNG, Solomon and Vanuatu. All of which suggests that for its Pacific investigations, it is overly reliant on some urban, Western-funded NGOs for  information.

(o-) IMF "SUGGESTIONS" FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY  include reducing the Government's wage bill; trimming subsidies to vulnerable groups by increasing transparency and accountability and better targetting assistance; eliminating tax holidays, streamlining tax incentives and improving tax administration; and by raising taxes on luxury goods and petroleum. Similar measures have been adopted in many countries since the onset of the Global recession. How they are implemented is as important as the measures themselves.

(o) RESERVE BANK AND IMPORT SUBSTITION. A Reserve Bank five-year and 6% loan facility aimed at encouring domestic agricultural production and reducing the country's imports payments will see $20m lent to commercial growers of produce in which Fiji is not self-sufficient, namely, fruit, vegetables, root crops, dairy produce and beef production. Pork, canned meat and chicken producers,items in which Fiji is self-sufficient, will not be able to access the funds.

(+) LAUTOKA City Council chief executive officer Pusp Raj is on leave pending investigations by the Fiji Independent Commission Against Corruption.

(+) FICAC. The Fiji Independent Commission Against Corruption has been given permission to adjourn the trial of one of its former officers Marica Rokotavaga who is charged with 37 counts of Forgery, Uttering Forged Document and Obtaining Money by False Pretence for allegedly using more than $15,000. The adjournment was granted pending possible charges against other officers.

STATE-CHURCH RELATIONS AND THE GREAT COUNCIL OF CHIEFS. Scroll down to new Na Sala Cava questions on these topics. For earlier topics, click on the link to our companion blog in the side bar.

A National Pledge? PM's Lau Tour, IMF & Public Spending, FNPF Owed $8m, Suspect Hardware Pricing

MY PJR PAPER ON FIJI BLOGS.  For those of you unable to access the link supplied, click on the Pacific Journalism Review front page in the left column, and then scroll down to the hyperlink for the article.  While you're there, look at the other articles in this and other issues and consider taking out  a subscription.
(+) PM'S PROVINCIAL TOURS CONTINUE: LAU.  The PM visited Moala on Tuesday and has travelled on to Totoya and Ono islands. His message is familiar. Peace and stability is dependent on the removal of racism in politics. Fiji's land and other resources must be released to grow the economy and speed development. He mentioned the potential for tourism in the island.  His traditional welcome was also familiar. Chiefs and yavusa heads admitted they hadn't support the People’s Charter in the past but pledged their support to the PM's leadership and direction he is now taking the country.

(+) FOLLOW UP ON GAU VISIT. Following the PM's visit to Gau, Government has supplied the islanders with water tanks and chainsaws, as promised.

(o) THE IMF AND PUBLIC SERVICE SPENDING.  This was found to be high relative to comparator countries due to higher wages and the numbers employed. The central government wage bill exceeds 10% of GDP but the share total of spending on wages and salaries is nearly 40%. But Government's corporatisation plan to reduce these numbers merely shifts the figures into another category. What has changed? The Pacific Islands have always had large public sectors relative to "developed" countries but this is not necessary a "bad" thing.

(+) THE FIJI NATIONAL PROVIDENT FUND IS OWED $7.65million by over one hundred employers for outstanding contributions. If they have not paid up in ten days time, they will be prevented from leaving the country until they have done so.  Defaulting employers have broken the law, as the contribitions have already been deducted from workers' wages and income, but have yet to be handed over.

HARDWARE PRICES ROCKET. A Consumer Council survey has found hardware price increases of up to 57% in the first quarter of this year and has called on consumers to assist the Commerce Commission’s investigation.

(-) FIJI LIVE'S LATEST 'POLITICAL'POLL asks "Can Fiji achieve a 4.2 percent unemployment rate by 2012?" Votes so far: Yes 33%; No 67%.

Qarase's Pension Restored, Cybernet Terrorism, Women's Centres, Govt Borrowing, Govt & Media: PINA Says Keep Door Open

(+) ONE STEP BACK, THREE STEPS FORWARD. The PM's announcement that pension payments will resume for former parliamentary leaders and other outspoken critics is the sort of forward-looking conciliatory acts we need to see more of. Among those affected by the December Pensions Decree were former prime minister, Laisenia Qarase, and the leader of the 1987 coups, former Prime Minister Sitiiveni Rabuka.

The pension stopped was not the  FNPF pension to which all members contribute, but pension entitlements under the Parliamentary Retirement Allowances Decree 1989, the Prime Minister's Pensions Act 1994, the Judges Remuneration and Emoluments Act and the Pensions Act. This important distinction has never made clear by the international media who left the public thinking that Fiji's "John and Jane Citizen" had been reprived of pensions to which they had contributed for the whole of theire working lives.  So much, once again, for the impartiality of the media!

CYBER TERRORISM WRITES: "Croz, I think it's terrific that you've finally done what other blog owners routinely do and that is to approve every comment before it's posted. I used to admire you for upholding the principle of freedom of speech in giving people direct and unfettered access. But this freedom has been totally abused by a small minority and the recent cyber attacks make it impossible to continue with your previous practice. Sad that it's come to this but that's life on the internet - an information highway dotted with intellectual thugs and technical vandals."

Another reader, Cyber Bores,  said "Maybe we can have cyber floggings in which adolescent minded cyber vandals receive fatal doses of radiation from their screens." [To make the fullest use of this blogsite, read Comments by clicking on "comment" at the the end of each post. They add information, argument and sometimes humour.]

(+) WOMEN'S FEDERATION CENTRES. Ministry of Women, Social Welfare and Poverty Alleviation head, Dr Jiko Luveni,  says government will set up six centres, two in each Division, to help "pull women out of poverty and enable them to realize their potential in national and economic development." The centres will be run by the Fiji Womens' Federation to ensure all Government resources directed towards women empowerment are well coordinated without any duplication. The first centre at Tacirua outside Suva will open soon.

(o-) WARNINGS ON FSC AND GOVERNMENT BORROWING. The Fiji Sugar Corporation  has borrowed $86.9m locally in the last nine months, over half from the Fiji National Provident Fund at 9-10%, $22.5m from the Reserve Bank at 7-8%, and $19m from the Bank of Baroda at 8-9%, $1.4m from the Bank of South Pacific at 8.3%.Offshore borrowings was $4.2m million from the EXIM Bank of India. Total borrowings stood at $91.1 million. FSC lost $8.3m in the three months ending in February.

The Asia Development Bank and the IMF are looking for ways to assist but futher loans will depend on the success of Government's structural reforms to improve the economy. Fiji's current total debt is about 53% of GDP, which is above theshold of sustainability that international agencies prefer to loan against. The ADB has adopted a"wait and see" approach while talks continue.

GOVERNMENT AND THE MEDIA. Newly appointed Acting Secretary for Information Sharon Smith-Johns says her job is to improve communication between the interim regime and the media. She says she wants to open up the channels of communication, by making ministers and civil servants more available to the media.

“It has been difficult. The government is always willing to talk to the media. There has been some irresponsible reporting in the past, and we all know that, we recognise that, both sides. But I think moving forward, we can’t spend too much time looking at the past, what is past is past, it is moving forward, it is forming relationships, it is understanding from both sides.” She says government does not want to gag the media, and the media decree, when it is implemented, will ensure balanced reporting.

(+) MEDIA DECREE AND PINA. Pacific Islands New Association President Moses Stevens  says he has received assurances that changes were being made to the decree in areas such as the proposed penalties for for journalists deemed to have breeched the legislation.

He said it was important dialogue with the government was kept open: “If we had a closed door between us and the government, then we would be left out of the process and I think that door should be open, the government must understand where we are coming from and we will understand them and maybe we will work together at getting the people ready for 2014.” PINA says it would like to help train members of the interim government in Fiji on understanding the role of the media.

(+) When What's Not Good May Be Not So Bad: Some Thoughts for Minister McCully

When National became Government in NZ many hoped to see a more realistic and helpful policy towards Fiji, and or a while things looked promising. But now, having restored minimal functionality at the Suva High Commission, the relationship looks substantially unchanged.

Speaking recently  to RadioNZ International  Foreign Minister Murray McCully  said there was a lack of "good news out of Fiji" since its suspension from the Pacific Islands Forum a year ago.  He added that "the [Pacific Islands] Forum leaders  unprecedented step of suspending Fiji's membership was more about punishing Fiji for failing to comply with the organization’s democratic ideals." He hadn't expected the suspension "to prompt changes by the interim regime" but it was needed to uphold principles. [It could also have been used to warn other Pacific nations not to support or follow Fiji's example.  What was not said was that, in international politics, stability is often more prized than principle.] 

I have commented elsewhere about how the "punishment" (that had no expected outcome!) has unintentionally heartened government opponents, strengthened the hold of the military in civil government, and adversely affected the livelihood of ordinary Fiji citizens, and I'll say no more on this, or comment on what the choice of a word like "punishment" tells us about NZ's attitude to Fiji. Instead, I'll focus on the word "good" that means different things to different people.

The Word "Good"
For the Minister, it probably means no restrictions on the Fiji Times, no Public Emergency Regulations, no detentions for their breach, engagement with the old political parties, "freedom" for the Methodist Church hierarchy,  and, most of all, "democratic" elections yesterday. I doubt he would extend "good" to include a flash assassination or a quick mutiny but many of those whose company he keeps would think these drastic measures "good."

Unfortunately, the Minister's apparently worthy democratic aims are not quite what they seem in the Fiji context (hence the need to place so many terms in speech marks), and none will be realized anytime soon because what the Minister sees as "good," Bainimarama sees as "bad." For Bainimarama their adoption would mean jettisoning the Roadmap and the People's Charter. He would have allowed the coup to fail, dozens of policies and schemes would be left up in the air, and  nothing "good"  would have been achieved after nearly four years of sacrifice and effort.

Many people sympathetic to what Bainimarama says he seeks to achieve share Minister McCully's concerns about a number of actions by the Fiji Government. Many have been spelt out on this blog, most recently in the ten serious concerns I expressed about the draft Media Decree. We have also frequently noted that the Fiji Government too often reacts excessively to situations, and seems quite unconcerned with its poor PR.

But we have also noted the many good things government is doing, or is trying to do, and noted that none of them (not one) is ever mentioned in the so-called independent mainstream media, or acknowledged by the Minister's government.

Here is a short list of some of the things they could have reported and acknowledged:

• The Corruption Clean-Up Campaign, a major reason given for the Coup, continues. The Fiji Independent Commission Against Corruption (FICAC)  investigated and laid 161 charges against 47 individuals in 2009.Some 4,365 complaints were received, of which 44 percent were resolved without going to court. Government audits and accountability reports continue to reveal irregularities. Department and Ministry annual auditing is now enforced. The huge backlog of complaints against lawyers is being addressed as are accusations of transfer pricing.

• Structural Reform and a more efficient Civil Service. The IMF recently complimented Government on  these measures, and many citizens have noted a more polite and helpful civil service.

• The Economy.  IMF also commended Govt on its fiscal and monetary policies that have done much to counteract the severe effects of the global financial crisis and the massive destruction to infrastructure after the January 2009 floods. Low interest loans have been obtained from new sources -- China, India, Malaysia -- to fund development. Micro-credit is being advanced to encourage small local businesses.

• Development initiatives. An improved and social physical infrastructure is another of Government's Roadmap goals. This includes work on roads and bridges, rural and outer island development (Rotuma now exports food to Tuvalu; nursing stations and small business initiatives in several areas), more emphasis in food security, and agriculture (rice, dairying, vegetables, copra use for biodiesel), and land reform. Some two-thirds of the 6,406 cane farms where leases expired between 1997 and 2010 are back in use. Most leases have been renewed with existing tenants, others with new tenants, a few leases have been subdivided for subsistence and cane farming, 1,670 have reverted to the landowners, and 374 leases were still in the process. Land leases are no longer a political weapon and lease money is being paid to the actual owners, not to chiefs and others in the former gravy train.

• Race and racism are not longer political weapons. Government has started the long uphill road to create a common "Fijian" indentify for all citizens. All citizens will be treated equally while respecting their ethnic differences. Race-based parties will not be allowed to stand in the 2014 elections. This situation must not be confused with NZ where the Maori ethnic minority has its own party. Some critics have questioned Bainimarama's sincerity because of continuing dominance of ethnic Fijians in the Military. I think this will continue in the short-term for strategic reasons. 

• Government measures to tackle poverty in a hostile economic environment include retaining VAT (GST) at 12.5% and excluding basic food items; food vouchers for the most needy; introducing minumum wages levels; assistance with school tranport, school fees and textbooks; help for squatters and more low-income housing, and many rural development measures, some of which are noted above.

• Social justice. Elections that do not bring social justice are not truly democracy. The one-man one-vote elections planned for 2014 will prevent repeats of the legislated racial discrimination practices under the Qarase Government.

• Meanwhile, Government has taken a number of steps to produce social justice, in addition to those noted concerning the poor and rural dwellers. The New Women's Plan of Action (WPA) 2010-2019 will see women enjoy equal participation at decision-making levels that are especialy important to women. The five areas include: employment; decision-making;violence against women and chldren; reproductive health issues; basic services such as housing, water, sanitation and transport; and women and the Law. 

• A Decree has been passed to prevent children abuse and child trafficking; the UN has commended another Decree on HIV/Aids; the backlog of legal cases and complaints against lawyers is being cleared; an estimated 1,200 public servants injured  during working hours will be paid all outstandingcompensation claims backdated to 2001. That's right, 2001, five years of the Qarase Government! The latest compensation to be paid is to a widow of a Fijian soldier killed in Fiji's UN engagement in Lebanon 31 years ago. And our Government has complained about cuts to Qarase and Rabuka's parliamentary pensions!

• The People's Charter. I doubt Minister McCully would disagree with any one of the Charter's stated aims or with Bainimarama's Roadmap other, of course, than with the timing of elections in 2014. Public dialogue is occurring and progress is being made on the Charter, but not as much and as fast as many would like.

• Meanwhile, grassroots (if not elite) support for Bainimarama is clearly growing,  most especially among ethnic Fijians. He is being judged by deeds that affect ordinary citizens, and he continues to receive matanigasau (traditional apologies) from villages and tikina all over Fiji  that had previously opposed the Charter, on the advice of their chiefs and Methodist church ministers.  This is not the usual route to democracy and things could still go wrong, but success would be more assured with the Mininter's understanding,  if not actual support. 

•  Finally, although cut off from its traditional friends, Fiji continues to receive international recognition, soft and low interest loans and technical assistance from non-traditional sources. NZ and Australia's influence in the Pacific could be eroding. The Minister should not underestimate the possible erosion of New Zealand influence.

Disclaimer:  This material is not covered by copyright and may be used without acknowledgement by the media.          -- Crosbie Walsh

Short Briefs: More Apologies, Charter Progress, Somare, Poverty, IMF Visit

(+) Nadroga/Navosa Apologizes. Noting that the province was the first to oppose the People's Charter, Chairman of the Provincial Council Ratu Sakiusa Makutu, speaking in Sigatoka  yesterday, asked  forgiveness from the Government. Ratu Makutu said he has changed his stance with his people behind him and he will now support the People's Charter. Meanwhile, the Turaga Na Kalevu said they are now awaiting word from the government on the proposal to separate the two provinces.

(+) Gau Apologizes. The villagers of Lovu, Gau Island, presented a traditional apology to the Prime Minister as he started his tour to the Lomaiviti Group  yesterday.The villagers said they now support the government’s initiatives and the People’s Charter.

(+) People’s Charter Meeting Underway. The third National People’s Charter Advisory Council (NPCAC) meeting, delayed because of Hurricane Tomas,  is currently underway in Suva. It will be reviewing reports submitted by various ministries into their operations.

NPCAC Chairman Josefa Serulagilagi said  “What we will now do is go down and do physical checks based on the reports to ensure that whatever has been given in paper is really happening on the ground.” He said these are all part of Government reforms.

(o)  Somare and Bainimarama. PNG PM Sir Michael Somare  offered PM Bainimarama some support as he continued his New Zealand tour. Asked about the media “crackdown” in Fiji, he said it could be taken in two different ways. The media must  "try to really interpret what the real thinking in the minds of Island people are and ... look at things in a different way than you in the West look at it ... you’ve got to understand the Pacific people ... and try and translate and report on what they believe.”

Asked about elections, Sir Michael said: “He's made up his mind, he’s going on 2014 ... I’m hoping that the time will come when he’ll come good and tell us when the elections are going to be held.”

Speaking of the Melanesian Spearhead Group that refused to follow the Forum initiative to expel Fiji, he said people said the  MSG had failed, but "we kept the dialogue going. I mean I can pick up a phone, talk to Bainimarama tonight if I want to, he can talk to me on the phone."

(o) How Many Live in Poverty? Hassan Khan, CEO of the FCOSS NGO,  says the notional poverty figure of 45% (360,000 people)  mentioned at a Poverty Eradication Unit-World Bank workshop last week is dated. It was based on a still to be published Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES)  held in 2008-2009.  Since then Hurricane Tomas and rising prices have made the situation worse. Khan's guestimate is that 500,000 live below the Poverty Line. 

Ideally, HIES are held every ten years. The last survey to  be published was held in 2002-03 (urban) and 2003-4 (rural), analyzed by Wadan Narsey  and published in 2006. The survey was based on a geographic and stratified sample of about 5,000 households, and  dollar values were imputed for subsistence produce. The basic needs poverty line (BNPL) differs between rural and urban communities, and in the past was set by an government-NGO advisory committee. I will write more on the new survey when (and if) I can sight a copy. If you can't wait and would like some more wild guesses, and accusations of government complicity, you know where to look.

(o+) The IMF Mission Team in Suva from 7-21 April discussed Fiji's economic reforms (and possible IMF financial support under a stand-by arrangement) with Government, donors, private sector and public enterprise representatives. The Mission "greatly appreciated the authorities' openness and the frank discussions of the economic challenges faced by Fiji."

The mission, that included World Bank and the Asian Development Bank representatives, commended Government for the manner in which fiscal and monetary policy was conducted to counteract the severe effects of the global financial crisis and the massive destruction to infrastructure after the January 2009 floods. They noted that despite a 7 percent reduction in revenue, Government maintained its deficit within the targeted level. They also commended the timely action to protect foreign reserves through devaluation.

The IMF will continue to discuss policy measures required to ensure fiscal sustainability and specific structural reforms to underpin Fiji's medium-term growth while protecting the vulnerable.  It looks for  further progress toward these ends to ensure external stability and help catalyze donor support for Fiji's reform efforts.

Women, Economy, If Frank Ruled the Waves, Why Provincial Tours, Corruption Report, Media Freedom

 Short Briefs

The New Women's Plan of Action (WPA) 2010-2019 will see women enjoy "equal participation at decision-making levels" that are especialy important to women. The five areasinclude: employment; decision-making;violence against women and chldren; reproductive health issues; basic services such as housing, water, sanitation and transport; and women and the Law. Minister for Women Dr Jiko Luveni (Photo FijiVillage)said the WPA will help identify directions for Government action. The initiative is is part of Government’s Roadmap for Democracy and Sustainable Socio-Economic Development (RDSSED) 2009-2014. Read more.

Valuable Up-to-Date Summary of Fiji's Economic Situation. Concise, balanced and revealing this World Bank report spells out Fiji's vulnerability to internal and external shocks, government reactions to them, and the "very difficult economic challenges" in the year ahead. Foremost among them is the need for
major structural reforms to improve the performance of the agricultural sector, most especially in the sugar industry.

If Frank Ruled the Waves. There's one obvious error in the World Bank  report.The population is not 834 million. If it were, the South Pacific geopolitical scene would be vastly different. Fiji would be the leading Pacific Forum country, it would dictate Pacer Plus terms; it would win a Sevens rugby gold at the Delhi Commonwealth Games, and Australia and NZ would not be acting the way they have to towards their much smaller neighbour. The World Bank has added three noughts to Fiji's population and Australia and NZ have added three crosses for Fiji to carry.

Reserve Bank Governor Sada Reddy Reserve Bank of Fiji (RBF)  says the country’s road to recovery will be slow and uncertain even though there are positive signs that the worst may be over.

Why the PM is Touring the Provinces. Some say it's to campaign for the 2014 elections. Bainimarama says it's to help build a better Fiji. He told people in Lovoni village on Ovalau that "the 1987 and 2000 upheavals took place because church ministers, chiefs and dirty politicians poisoned peoples’ minds to strengthen racism in the country" and urged the people to support the People's Charter.  He was told he was the first PM to ever visit the chiefly village. Also today, the district of Bureta presented a whales tooth to ask for forgiveness for opposing the Government when they came into power in 2006. The Prime Minister accepted the apology and urged the people to accept all the reforms his government is undertaking.

The New Biodiesel factory at Lami will soon be an important market for the coconut industry and have many benefits for the country. Some 300 vehicles are already using the product, produced by Hari Punja's Blue Gas Fiji Limited.

The Critical IMF Loan. Government is awaiting a decision by the International Monetary Fund on whether it can borrow about US$459 million to pay for necessary but costly reforms in the Civil Service, Public Enterprises, Fiji National Provident Fund, Land and Agriculture sectors. The reforms will continue using Fiji's own resources but the IMF loan, and IMF technical expertise, would accelerate the reform programmes, and protect foreign reserves and balance of payments.

What Media "Freedom" Too Often Means.  If any reader remains unconvinced that media coverage on Fiji is deeply biased,  read this report from The Australian in Business with the Wall Street Journal.  Then click on "Related Coverage" and the ten pages of "More Related Coverage" and count the number of balanced reports. Note: The Australian, Wall Street Journal and The Fiji Times are all owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Ltd.

Former Fiji Daily Post Publisher asks when did Fiji last have media freedom.

The Fiji Independent Commission Against Corruption (FICAC) investigated and laid 161 charges against 47 individuals in 2009.Some 4,365 complaints were received, of which 44 percent were resolved without going to Court. FICAC Deputy Commissioner George Langman says a major challenge was maintaining a pool of Senior Prosecutors. IICAC presently employes five Sri Lankan prosecutors.

Clever Satirical Blog. The Namuamua Journal is back again with its first post since 2008. But it's worth waiting for. With so much dreary news about Fiji, "Frank Bainimara Weds Samoan Prime Minister, Tuitaepa Sailele" provides some light relief.

Scroll down to post with links to Walsh and Robie radio interviews.

IMF, the Fiji Economy, and Other Stories

Brief Shorts 25.2. 10 

Support our visitor drive. See left column.

 Accolades. "The best blogger on Fiji matter is Crosbie Walsh’s".  The blog entered the stratosphere yesterday by passing the 50,000 visitor mark. Click on the Flag feature to see daily totals.

Fourfourpointfive continues its credibility slide.  For several months after it was launched in April last year, the "moderate" anti-government blog was an important source of information on Fiji. Now a pale shadow of its former self, it merely pastes items copied from other sources. In uncritically copying Suliasi Daunitutu's response to Bainimarama's "toilet paper" remarks on his 600,000 petition, it does itself a further disservice because, in the absence of comment -- or reference to others who have questioned Daunitutu's petition "methodology" and the numbers claimed -- publishing the story can only mean the blog has accepted the petition on face value, just as RadioNZ foolishly did before dropping "petition" in favour of  "letters."

Radio Fiji's photo. I find it strange that the RadioFiji web page invariably chooses a photo of PM Bainimarama in military uniform, just like the overseas media that seeks to stress his military role. Bainimaramana  said the lifting of sanctions was the main issue discussed between Ratu Inoke Kubuabola and Murray McCully when they met last week, "Ratu Inoke was doing the talking on Fiji’s behalf." Good. One spokesman. One voice.

The ANZ's Chief Economic Asia Pacific  said Fiji has to look for a long term solution for economic recovery.

IMF Commends and Recommends

The International Monetary Fund is urging Fiji to take more decisive actions to restore macro-economic stability because the economic situation is challenging and downside risks remain high.

On the negative side:

• increased budget pressures, inflation, high level of debt 

On the positive side:

• "commendable efforts" to restrain current spending
• Devaluation has helped reverse the sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves
• The tight monetary policy has helped immediate economic stability.

Recommendations:

• Faster pace of changes
• Further decisive actions on macroeconomic stability and structural reforms to lift growth and ensure debt sustainability over the medium term
• Infrastructure rebuilding needs to be offset by expenditure measures, including civil service reform
• Revenue strengthened by rationalizing tax incentives, improving tax administration and raising excise taxes. 

The Directors urged adherence to the target of reducing central government debt to 45 percent of GDP by 2014.  Fiji this month applied for a $1b loan from the IMF.