pn942. Comments: The Latest Roy Morgan Poll and the Political Power Game

Six polling companies keep us informed, amused,  amazed or sometimes bewildered (usually depending on how we feel about their findings) on the prospects of political parties to form a government at the next election, however distant, often with further questions on whether the country is "heading in the right (or wrong) direction" and preferred prime minister.

Two of them, 1News Kantar and Newshub Reid Research poll quarterly.  Three, Labour-leaning Talbot Mills, National-ACT-leaning Curia-Taxpayers' Union, and the independent ANZ Roy Morgan NZ Poll, conduct polls monthly. And Horizson  Polls occasionally conducts political polls.  

A lot can happen between now and the next election which must be held no later than 13 January 2024,  and will probably be held in December, twelve months away, but trends, measured month by month, are indicative.  (See below on how the media helps shape trends.)

The Roy Morgan poll

The Roy Morgan poll reported on 6 December and conducted in late November is bad news for Labour-Greens.  For the first time,  both men and women in each age group said they would vote National or ACT.  Previous polls generally showed women and younger voters favoured Labour-Greens over National-ACT.  More people (55%) thought the country was heading in the  "wrong" direction and Christopher Luxon was catching up a little on Jacinda Ardern.   Support for Labour was the lowest since June 2017.

It's not unusual for an incumbent party to become less popular over time.  The longer it's in power, the longer it can get some things wrong.  It is doing­—or not doing—things while all the Opposition has to do is sit and criticize. Or, if you're ACT's David Seymour, stand in parliament's question time and demand multiple answers from the PM to a slurry of questions. As she sat down having answered his questions the mike picked her up saying he was an "arrogant prick" — and so he proved he was when ungentlemanly he accepted her apologies to launch another burst of accusations.  

Another giant in the game

There is one other player in the game that we often neglect.  The media's comments on the polls  make their own news.  It rarely takes an independent stance and even more rarely analyses poll results.  It goes for the dramatised and often exaggerated headline which shows the government in a poor light.  I am not talking about the Mike Hosking broadcasters. We know their politics and how they attract advertisers to make money.  I'm talking 1News, Stuff, the NZ Herald and the mainstream media.  How they report poll results influences how people think, which in turn influences the next poll results.  They influence the "trends".  Do not underestimate the role of the media in shaping the political power game.

Here's the Roy Morgan poll results in full.  Digest, even if you can't enjoy.

-- ACW