Labour appears to be in something of an electoral death spiral. The four-point drop in last night’s 1News Verian poll to just 29 per cent – together with National’s bump up to 37 per cent – suggests that the gulf between the left and right blocs is now opening up, and will be difficult to reverse. |
Polls and the media affect — you could even say, determine— the way we vote, or if we vote at all. Their influence is so strong that an argument could be to not allow political polls within two or more months of an election.
How come that the Labour-National gap has widened is recent weeks? It's not, as Toby Manhire says, "as if Luxon or National are setting the electorate alight" Indeed, in the latest 1News poll, the combined party vote of National (37%) and Labour (29%) totals only 66%, the lowest for 21 years, and only 21% preferred Hipkins over Luxton (20%) which leaves 60% preferring neither. "I'm guessing," says Manhire, that the reaction of the remainder "is to curl up and hibernate until this is all over."
Poll results tip the balance, and start the slide, leaving voters feeling there is little that can be done about it. Headlines read "Is it now too late for Labour?" "Labour might need to capture the moon to turn this tide" and terms like "inevitable", "dissatisfaction skyrocketing" "bloodbath" and "death spiral" abound.
National party supporters do more and donate more, while Labour supporters do less, adding further to the "inevitability." It shapes the whole mood of the campaign, sapping momentum and motivation for those on the Government side. What’s more, when a party is losing, the despair can cause infighting and panic, which just makes everything much worse" (Manhire again). A low voter turnout would be a Labour nightmare.
It's not all the result of polls and unfriendly journalists, of course. Factors largely outside government control such as the economic recession and the high cost of living have played a part but the polls say that Labour is partly to blame, and the media has done little to address these underlying factors.
Labour has also been trying hard to represent "middle New Zealand" and avoiding anything too "left" such as a capital gains or a wealth tax. The result has been not enough money to fix the problems of doctor and teacher shortage and youth crime. It's policies are too close to National's and it's support has drifted to the Greens, National and the undecided.
Some of its past policies have been unrealized and much of what it now promises is piecemeal or targeted far into the future. Whether some radical new policy, such as free dental care, would make any difference is hard to say but one thing is certain: polls and the media have played a large part in shaping public opinion. Is this as it should be in a democracy?
-- ACW
Footnote: Email from Chis Hipkins:
You might have seen that a new poll has landed and it’s showing we’re the underdog in the upcoming election.
Polls go up and down, but what will make or break this election is ensuring people get out to vote – and for that we need your support.
I will be campaigning hard for a shot at a full term as Prime Minister so we can keep driving New Zealand forward for everyone.
We have a positive plan for the future. It’s focused on giving cost of living relief, protecting superannuation and the winter energy payment, and guarding against cuts to hospitals and schools.
Your vote this election will have real consequences
New Zealand has a choice. A National-Act coalition that’s more focused on cutting jobs than creating them – or Labour with our record of low-unemployment and wages rising faster than inflation.
A choice between National’s unaffordable tax cuts for millionaires that are paid for by big cuts to schools and hospitals or Labour’s real and ongoing cost of living support for hard working New Zealanders.
We know that National and ACT’s tax cuts don’t add up unless they make deep cuts to public services and gut cost of living support. National will increase the cost of medicine, early child education and childcare, public transport and fruit and vegetables. And ACT are determined to sell state assets if they get their hands on power.
Now is not the time to put jobs, public services, and cost of living support for New Zealanders at risk.
We are going to give it everything we’ve got this election, there’s too much on the line.
Kiwis love to back an underdog, and they love a comeback even more.
Thanks,
Chris
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