Australian and NZ Pacific Policies: Similarities and Differences

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Increased concerns about the growing influence of China in the Pacific seem to be the main reason why Australia, and to a lesser extent NZ, have "reset" their Pacific aid programmes. Their combined yearly aid now totals A$1B and both have increased their diplomatic presence. 

Fiji's New Diplomacy

Time to Rethink When 'Bad Guy' is King of Pacific
By Graham Davis*

Source: The Australian/PacNews

Australia’s impotence in influencing events in its own back yard is being demonstrated in dramatic fashion this week as Fijian leader Commodore Frank Bainimarama fulfils his long-held ambition to assume the chairmanship of the Melanesian Spearhead Group.

All the other Melanesian leaders - from Papua New Guinea, the Solomons, Vanuatu plus the Kanak FLNKS from New Caledonia - are joining him for the group's summit in Suva tomorrow. It's also being attended by representatives from Indonesia, East Timor and - strangely - the European Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.

The humiliation for Australia and New Zealand comes with the authority Bainimarama will now wield as the leader of a virile regional grouping - backed by the Chinese - that's increasingly regarded as more important than the long-established Pacific Islands Forum.

Australia's Policy Not Working; Rule of Law, McCully's Carrot; MSG Leaders Endorse Fiji's Plans, Oppose Exclusion; McCully Leads Rudd

N0287. CALLS FOR POLICY CHANGE MOUNTING.  In the last few days we've had Australian Foreign Minister Rudd saying that Australia will not change its approach to Fiji; NZ Foreign Minister McCully wave the carrot of Rugby World Cup attendance if Fiji showed it was serious about elections in 2014; and three Melanesian countries accept Fiji's Roadmap and call for  its re-entry into the Pacific Forum and PACER discussions (see N0290, below).

Now we have Julie Bishop, the Australian Opposition spokesperson on foreign affairs, saying Australia's policy of exclusion is not working, and that it should follow the example of the United States and other European countries and review its policies.

'I believe it's time, she said, 'for the Australian government to review its stance on Fiji, particularly time to assess  whether the sanctions imposed on Fiji are working or whether they are potentially counter-productive. We must  consider the impact of the sanctions on the Fijian people. I am urging Foreign Minister Rudd to refocus his  efforts in the Pacific, particularly on Fiji, to see if there's a better way to restore democracy and the rule of law in Fiji.'

Last week's NSW election routing of Labour and its slender one-seat majority in the Federal parliament seem to indicate that Rudd's Labour is as much out of touch with realities in Australia as it is in the Pacific.

N0288. THE RULE OF LAW. These snippets from a reader's email: "The new Commissioner of Police is very pro-active ...

"We are seeing a great improvement in the courts now ... the Sri Lankan judges and magistrates are helpful and professional.

"I am told we now have five High Courtrooms. Before there were only two and BOTH leaked.  We have six judges  there now. There was a time when there were only two. Imagine: two judges to serve the entire Western Division of Fiji. No wonder we were in trouble."

The reader pointed to the sort of assistance needed from overseas: "We need targeted assistance – especially with the Police Force, violent crime, serious organized crime and transnational crime.  Also with the operation of the Fiji Courts and Judicial System, such as Court recording and remote TV to allow women and children separation from their attackers in courts.

N0289. MCCULLY'S CARROT.  Another reader left this comment: "The fact that McCully even considered dangling the World Cup as a carrot indicates the low regard with which he and his government consider Fiji and the depth of their ignorance of indigenous Fijian history, values and psyche. Is NZ offering to buy the Fiji Government's integrity with the World Cup? What is the World Cup but a piece of silver? Of much greater value is that Fiji does not sell its soul."

N0290. MSG MEETING ROUNDUP.   A TV first marked the Melanesian Spearhead Group  Leaders Summit on Thursday with two hours of live coverage beamed to thousands of viewers from around the region in English, Fijian,  Hindi, French, Pidgin and sign language.

The highlight of the meeting from Fiji's perspective was the unanimous support received from the Melanesian governments. All the leaders recognised the proposed People’s Charter for Change, the Roadmap and the Sustainable Socio-Economic Development and the accompanying reform agendas as credible for Fiji’s development. All the leaders also called for the end of Fiji's exclusion by the international community.  

Solomon Islands Foreign Minister Peter Shanel  called on the Melanesian countries to lobby the Pacific Islands Leaders Forum and the Commonwealth Heads of Governments to support Fiji in its efforts to hold elections in 2014. These institutions, he said, must now recognise Fiji’s sovereign right to decide its own destiny.

PNG Foreign Minister Don Poyle called for Fiji's inclusion in the Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations (PACER) Plus negotiations, and said,  "What Fiji does internally is Fiji's business."

Vanuatu PM Sato Kilman supported PM Bainimarama's call for solidarity to complement efforts at the national level in individual member states. He had earlier said "the Vanuatu Government like other Melanesian Spearhead Group and Pacific countries recognises the importance of maintaining a diplomatic representation in Fiji.We cannot go alone. We need Fiji.”

Solomon Islands PM Danny Philip had to leave early due to political developments in his country overnight that saw the opposition in Honiara to try to dislodge his seven month old government with a no confidence motion. Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare has sent his Foreign Minister Don Polye, as he had to step aside for two weeks on Monday in line with a leadership tribunal ruling.

Radio NZ International, reporting on the MSG meeting from Suva:

 “Melanesian leaders have endorsed a broad vision on the future MSG economic integration. It involves the possible creation of a common market through the expansion of the MSG Trade Agreement into provisions for trade in services as well as a labour mobility scheme. The Closer Economic Relations agenda also includes a strengthening of the Trade agreement by addressing inconsistencies with other regional trade agreements, while the leaders have approved a timeline to conclude the long-running negotiations with the European Union on the Economic Partnership Agreements, or EPAs, by the end of this year.The MSG leaders have also come out strongly in support of the re-inclusion of Fiji in all regional trade discussions, issuing a broad threat of pushing for a change in the location and management of the EPA negotiations if Fiji continues to be excluded.”

Fine. But there was no mention, no mention at all,  of the Melanesian leaders' political support for Fiji. Not even a whisper.

Compare this with Radio Australia reports "Melanesian Leaders Endorse Bainimarama plans".
No comment!

 N0291.
FIJI: McCully leads Rudd in treatment of pariah regime by Alex Perrottet in Pacific Media Watch

McCully's Carrot, Fiji's Response; MSG Meeting Update, Qarase Trial Date

N0275. AUSTRALIA- NZ, WHO'S LEADING WHO?  Hard on the heels of Kevin Rudd's statement that showed there was no change in the Australian government's position on Fiji (that is now even drawing criticism from former supporters such as Jenny Hayward-Jones of the Lowy Institute) comes NZ Foreign Minister McCully's statement that NZ would relax its travel bans against Fiji if the Bainimarama government would give a firm commitment to hold elections in 2014.

It is hard to know whether to take this remark seriously because Fiji has repeatedly said there will be elections in 2014. Their Roadmap, as readers will know because it has been stated often enough on this blog, set 2009-11 aside for physical and institutional infrastructure reforms, followed by constitutional reforms in 2012, electoral reforms in 2013, and elections in 2014, probably in September.

This is the Roadmap that was spelt out to Melanesian leaders at the "Engaging the Pacific" meeting at Natadola last year, and is being updated to Melanesian Spearhead Group officials this week in Suva (see N0277, below).  The Roadmap is based on the eleven pillars of the People's Charter and progress towards achieving the Charter goals is being monitored by the Strategic Framework for Change committee that was the subject of another posting in this blog last week.

There really is no excuse for the Minister not to know that 2014 is a definite date unless he chooses to heed  misleading media reports where Bainimarama has said some villagers are saying his government is so good, they don't want elections. The anti-government blogs and foreign media, bless them all, have put the villagers' words in Bainimarama's mouth and said they are the first signs that the government will renege on the elections. They have also speculated the military will not give up the "cushy" positions they now hold in government. 

The Minister, incredibly, seems to think that being able to attend "the Rugby World Cup would act as a carrot for the Fijian interim government to give a cast-iron assurance in return for lifting the travel ban in time for the Cup." We all know Bainimarama likes his football but it's more than a little condescending and patronising of the Minister to suppose Bainimarama would put a game ahead of what he is trying to do in Fiji.

There does, however, seem to be some change in NZ's position. McCully had previously demanded immediate elections. He now accepts 2014 as the election year. And in accepting this date, he acknowledges that the ban will have to be relaxed soon to allow the Fiji Government to appoint the people it will require to plan for the election. He notes they have "struggled to recruit for senior positions because the ban automatically applied to those people." In doing so, of course, he admits NZ policies have helped to increase the military presence in government, an outcome he presumably did not want.

The Minister said, "There's a point where it's going to be in our (sic!)  interests for them to be able to recruit heads of government departments that are not members of the military; that means at that point you have to look at the sanctions." Note "our" interests. I thought we were acting in Fiji's interests.

As the NZHerald notes "Mr McCully's views on softening sanctions to help Fiji appear at odds with the harder line taken by Australia." The Minister denies his approach is different from Kevin Rudd's. But why not? We are a sovereign nation, capable of our own initiatives. We do not need to follow Australia's lead all the time. And Dr Rudd has been far too preoocupied with Asia to have any firsthand knowledge of what is happening in the Pacific.


For a refreshing Aussie look at Australia and NZ's position, read this link to the Auckland University of Technology's Pacific Media Watch.


N0276. FIJI RESPONDS TO MURRAY McCULLY. Acting Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Ratu Inoke Kubuabola says the Fijian government is  committed to holding General Elections in 2014.

“Prime Minister Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama has time and again emphasized his commitment to elections timeline in 2014. That timeline remains and nothing has changed as far as government is concerned. Government is committed to ensuring that good and fair election is conducted. What more cast-iron assurance can this be for New Zealand or any other country for that matter.”

“New Zealand just doesn’t want to recognize nor understand that Fiji needs to give its people a fair and just election system that makes up the multiracial country of Fiji.” said Ratu Inoke. He said these things cannot be achieved overnight, and the government has set the time to 2014. -- MOI.

Col. Pio Tikoduadua, permanent secretary to the PM's Office,  echoed Ratu Inoke's remarks by saying
Fiji remains committed to holding elections in 2014 as this is  government’s promise to the people.  Note, to the Fijian people, not to NZ or some other foreign power. He said he found Minister McCully's comments "interesting."

The sticking point, once the date is accepted, will be on how open and inclusive the electoral dialogue will be, and which people and which parties will be allowed to stand for election.  I suspect McCully will want the "old politicans" represented.  I doubt this will be allowed.  They created the conditions that led to the coup.


N0277. MSG FOREIGN MINISTERS WERE BRIEFED on the progress of the implementation of the Strategic Framework for Change this morning. The areas covered were: Good governance (progress on the constitutional, electoral, public service and public sector reforms); Infrastructural developments (progress on land reforms, enhancement of international relations, maintaining macroeconomic stability and raising investment levels); and  socio-cultural programmes (reducing poverty, developing a common national identity, improving health service delivery and social justice). The Strategic Framework is based on the pillars of the People’s Charter to which all Government ministries are working to achieve. PNG Foreign Affairs Minister Don Polye expressed his country’s support for the work being carried out to reform Fiji. -- Based on No.0737/MOI.

N0278.TRADE EXPO AT MSG MEET. Some 24 companies and manufacturers of food products, home furnishing, textiles, footwear, financial services and much more are showing what they can offer the region at the expo that will be open at the Vale Ni Bose complex for the duration of the MSG meeting.Visits by the public are welcome. -- Based on No.0735/MTC.

N0279. QARASE TRIAL. The trial of former PM  Laisenia Qarase and former Fijian Holdings Chairman Sitiveni Weleilakeba for abuse of office  has been set for September 12. They have been charged by the Fiji Independent Commission Against Corruption with ten counts of abuse of office, forgery and issuing forged documents. There will be another pre-trial conference on June 10 when the two men will confirm their availability for the trial.

NZ Paints Itself into Corner, Fijian 'Refugees', Taxi Union, Typhoid, Empowering Rural Women

N0145. NZ PAINTS  ITSELF INTO A CORNER.  This note from a reader:

"Why on earth we have allowed ourselves to be painted into a corner on Fiji I have no idea.  It would be naive to assume that when some sort of accommodation is reached and the rhetoric has it that we can return to 'normal' relations that relations will return to normal. 

It seems to me that both Fijians and a number of Pacific Islands governments and peoples will have watched the reaction to Fiji with a certain unease.  New Zealand realises that it gets huge support from the 14 Pacific Islands votes in the United Nations.  At the moment Fiji will be absent.  Who knows how PNG would vote and there will be one of two others perhaps who may fall into the 'false friends' camp.  That is, as I see it."



N0146. FIJIAN 'REFUGEES' SHOULD BE ASHAMED. Fijians who have been rejected as refugees to Australia are now appealing against rulings at a rate second only to Chinese citizens, 11% compared with 29%. Some 243 Fijians applied for review last financial year, compared with 59 the previous year.The number has fallen this year. Of course, the number of appeals is related to the number that have been refused refugee status, and it would seem Australia refuses most Fiji applications.

One wonders why we hear nothing about Fijian refugee applications, refusal and appeals in NZ. One wonders also whether the activities in Australia of Tui Savu and the Fiji Democracy and Freedom Movement have scared Australia's ethnic Fijians into really believing their lives would be at risk if they returned to Fiji, or whether the appeals are a last ditch attempt to stay in the land of Oz.

Anti-Government blogs hold the Fiji military responsible for nine deaths, five following the mutiny in 2000 (six years before the Bainimarama coup); the remainder quite unrelated to political activities. Those seeking asylum should note that three former prime ministers, all hostile to the Bainimarama government, walk freely in Fiji. They should pluck up courage and return to Fiji — or at least be honest. Life in Australia is easier. And as one appeal fails, they can appeal again, and again, and their stay is extended for many more months.

N0147. PM ADVISES TAXI UNION. Speaking at the Fiji Taxi Union's AGM, the PM  has urged members to come up with a unified position -—like their counterparts in the Fiji Bus Operators Association— to facilitate solutions.

He said Government measures to assist the industry such as concessions on the import of LPG/CNG vehicles, the reduction in duty of vehicles up to 2500cc and the increased focused and resourcing of the Fiji police force, and longer term, policies to increase wages, to grow the economy by way of tourism and robust economic activity will all directly contribute towards increased business activity for taxi operators. Government recognizes the importance of the taxi sector and looks to the Fiji taxi union to co-operate with all the stakeholders to ensure a new look and viable taxi industry that has modern cars and has operators and drivers who are Fiji and customer focused. Bainimarama assured members that Government will work with the union to find fair and creative solutions to address the industry's problems.

N0148. TYPHOID. To put the record straight, The "outbreak" claimed by one anti-Govt blog is confined to the villages of Nasava, Narokorokoyawa, Korovou and Sawanikula in Wainimala, inland Naitasiri. The villages were placed under curfew after ten villagers were hospitalised. The number  remains at ten. A major vaccination  programme was conducted last year in high risk outbreak areas but villagers still need to practise better hygiene. Health Ministry spokesman Peni Namotu said clinical, environmental and awareness approaches are being used to tackle the problem. Fiji has one of the highest rates of typhoid fever in the region with regular outbreaks occurring mainly in remote areas.

N0149. EMPOWERING RURAL WOMEN. Social Welfare, Women and Poverty Alleviation Minister Dr Jiko Luveni is on the island of Ovalau this week visiting ten villages where she will listen to women's difficulties and the ways Government can help them. She will inform them of Government’s plans and achievements especially those that relate to them as outlined in the Roadmap for Democracy Sustainable Socio-Economic Development (2009 to 2014).

Her trip is part of Government's  outreach programme that is aimed at empowering rural women financially and socially.  -- Based on 2011, No:0449/MWSPA.

Squatters Initiate Eviction of Criminals, Australian and NZ Aid Continues

No139. MORE SQUATTERS EVICTED. The anti-government blogs have been keen to publish stories of urban squatter evictions.  No background or explanation is given other than the evictions are further evidence of  government inhumanity.

The blogs  have not reported government explanations about development, the provision of alternative sites and serious efforts to provide new housing for poor people, and they have disbelieved that particular squatters were evicted to prevent crime. 

Recently some squatters in Wailea settlement off Fletcher Road in Vatuwaqa were evicted who were suspected of trading marijuana. And now, seven household in the  Fiji Muslim League Estate off Ratu Mara Road in Nabua have received eviction and demolition notices, but the initiative has come from the squatters themselves. One resident, Alumita Rabele, said the whole settlement had initially been told to go but now only seven people are involved. She said this was initiated by the community because they felt the settlement would be safer without the people suspected to be involved in illegal activities.

"The people from the Lands Department gave the notice to these people selling marijuana from their homes after we resolved the first issue which was for us to move out," she said.

N0140. AUSTRALIAN AND NZ AID CONTINUES.  Aid to Fiji from both countries continues despite the political standoff.  The amounts involved are smaller than formerly, they are targeted towards specific activities, and they generally bypass government preferring NGOs as intermediaries.

Recently, AusAID donated $100,000 worth of obstetric training models to the Ministry so that pregnant mothers can be assured of quality services while in hospital. And the New Zealand High Commission has donated $15,000 to Leadership Fiji for its 2011 training programme that will focus on developing and enhancing the skills of future Fiji leaders.

Leadership Fiji Chair William Parkinson says they aim to expose participants to leaders from across the society in a structured manner, providing them with the opportunity to deepen their understanding of their country.The programme that starts next month allows members to explore their own values, philosophies, prejudices and beliefs through a variety of issues.

NZ Parliamentary Report on the Pacific by Gerald McGhie

 

Gerald McGhie is a former diplomat with substantial experience in the Pacific. His Blog is External40.Blogspot.com  A slightly revised copy of this article was published by the DominionPost on Friday 18 February.

Roads, Water, Roadmap; Australian Leaks, Forum Threatened; Economy Surviving, NZ 'Spying,' Solomon MOU, Hi Oprah

SCROLL DOWN TO WEEKEND READING. QUOTE FOR THE WEEK

Loyalty to petrified opinion never yet broke a chain or freed a human soul.-- Mark Twain (1835-1910). See right sidebar.

IF I HAD A THOUSAND TONGUES. It may be boring to town dwellers who've never had to walk ten k lugging a 30kg basket of dalo but the opening of the new 10km Lagi Nukusere road that branches off from the main Dogotuki highway to link isolated districts of Udu in Macuata and Tawake in Cakaudrove is a big event for those concerned. It will save them a ten kilometre walk to the nearest bus and a boat trip to the Labasa market and hospital that could cost up to $400. Government is hoping its $850,000 investment will increase productivity and the marketing of farm produce.

Lorosio Qiriyamo, the 84-year old leader of the Yavusa Lagi, said for a long time he’d seen the struggles of his people. “If I have a thousand tongues they will all just thank the investment the Government has made here.” -- Based on 2010, No:2205/MOI

ANOTHER VANUA LEVU DEVELOPMENT. The $10m Navau water project that opened this week has resolved long standing water problems for people living in the high areas of Labasa, the main town in Vanua Levu. An additional five mega litres of water is now being pumped via 23km of piping into the Benau Reservoir, raising the typical water level from 0.34m to its maximum 4.6m capacity. Previously, people living in higher areas received only intermittent water supply. The project was first mooted in 1998 but has been delayed by lack of funding .  -- Based on 2010, No:2206/MOI. The project serves as another example of work on the Government's Roadmap and the use to which funds and loan money are being used.


AUSTRALIA'S LEAKED POLICY.  The Sydney Morning Herald has  an  interesting article by Phillip Dorling, based on Wikileaks, about the opinions of former parliamentary secretary for Pacific Island affairs Duncan Kerr. Kerr was deeply frustrated with the failure of Australia's policy to isolate Fiji and topple the Bainimarama government but could see no policy alternative. Kerr privately encouraged the US to seek re-engagement with Fiji, and so break the impasse.
 
He thought  Australia's hardline policies [were] driving Fiji's economy towards collapse while failing in their objective of bringing an end to the country's military rule." And he was deeply concerned at what he saw as a severe deterioration in Fiji's political, economic, and social conditions, and the potential costs for
Australia in the event of economic collapse. The US embassy reported that Kerr, who had "considerable experience of South Pacific politics," believed "Bainimarama cannot give up power as he would end up at the mercy of his enemies, and suggested that the international community should find a safe way for him to step down. [Bainimarama was] the only military man who believes in a return to civilian rule, as less senior officers are getting the taste of being in power".

Well, here we are a year later. Australia had an opportunity to modify its policies after the election of a new government, but failed to do so.  The US could still be contemplating some new approach. And in Fiji, Bainimarama seems to be steadily improving his position, work on infrastructural and institutional reform continues, and the economy survives with some signs of recovery.

For me, the article was of interest because of  Kerr's  limited understanding of Fiji's internal political dynamics; the assumption that Australia alone holds the key to "make or break" in the Pacific region; and its admission  that Australian policies had adversely affecting the Fiji economy.  Someone should tell Prof Narsey who seems to think it's all Bainimarama's fault.

WIKILEAKS COULD DERAIL PACIFIC FORUM. This is what the NZ Herald had to say.

ECONOMY SURVIVING. Fiji's economic recovery is still some way off but recently released Reserve Bank figures indicate that it is holding its own, with improvements in some areas. Compared with the same period last year:

• New lending for consumption purposes increased by 1.4% to $85.5 million, mainly supported by buoyant tourism activity and higher inward remittances. Imports of consumption goods declined by 1.6%.
• Investment, however, continued to remain weak.Imports of investment goods declined by 4.8% and new investment lending declined by 1.1% from $45.7 million.
• Rather better news was that the merchandise trade deficit narrowed  by around 6.2% to $920.6 million. This was due to higher domestic export earnings, up by 10.1%, led by mineral water, fish, timber, sweet biscuits, gold, garments and flour which more than offset the decline in earnings from sugar, molasses and coconut oil.
• Total export earnings, including re-exports, rose by 15.9%, up from a 18.2% decline in the same period last year.
• Import payments (excluding aircraft) rose by 2.4%, up from a decline of 16.4% mainly due to higher prices for  mineral fuels, chemicals and manufactured miscellaneous articles, but the increases were largely offset by declines in payments for machinery, transport and equipment, and foodstuff. -- Based partly on  Fiji Times.

NZ 'NYET' (NO COMMENT) ON SPYING. Following up on Wikileaks, FijiVillage news sent questions to MFAT asking Foreign Minister McCully whether NZ has been still spying on the Fiji military and government since 2006, and whether it was still listening to Fiji mobile phones. NZ replied that it was a longstanding practice not to comment on intelligence matters.


 FIJI-SOLOMON MOU. The Memorandum of Understanding signed in Honiara last week will see greater co-operation on bilateral trade and investments, education, labour mobility, immigration, commerce, retail and taxation, fisheries cooperation, air and sea transportation, health and pharmaceuticals and climate change, environment, and security and energy. The MOU will enable Solomon Islands students to enjoy tuition fees concessions in most tertiary learning institutions in Fiji. -- Based on 2010, No:2194/MFA.

OPRAH IN FIJI.  "Oprah Winfrey and her partner chose Fiji as a holiday destination because they were told it was safe and a fantastic time out from their hectic schedule as public figures.  When she leaves I wonder what she could tell the world. I wonder if she'll tell those who say Fiji is dangerous that they are wrong."-- Allen Lockington.

Getting Too Close to Bainimarama

Scroll down to today's regular posting.

After Sanctions What?

By

Scott MacWilliam

There is a serious danger in the maintenance of sanctions against the current government of Fiji which needs to be recognised and examined. There are very strong signs that the radical ethnic nationalists have recognised well in advance of the Australian and New Zealand governments that the way to drive future changes and regain power is to get close to PM Bainimarama.

Coup of Many Colours, Kerr Says Australia Needs to Rethink, Kubuabola Responds to Gillard, Lomaiviti Meeting, Budget Day, Invite to NZ Law Society

See new QUOTE FOR THE WEEK in the right sidebar.

COUP OF MANY COLOURS. I was reminded by a comment to Sanjay's weekend article of how the 2006 Bainimarama coup has been relabelled over time. It started in 2007 with Ratu Joni Madraiwiwi saying indigenous Fijians saw it as an Indo-Fijian counter-coup. By 2008 it had become an Fiji Labour Party coup. By 2009 it was an Indo-Fijian Muslim coup,  and now it's apparently an Indo-Fijian business big business cum Muslim coup with possible Al Qaeda links.

The commentator wrote: "The fact is that all political parties lost out because of the coup, except the National Alliance Party of Ratu Epeili Ganilau. Then again, the military has made it clear that no previous political parties or party-affiliated individuals will contest any future general elections. Indigenous Fijian provincial chiefs slowly realised that Ro Temumu Kepa and Mere Samisoni style resistance was futile and as a result, the chiefs that wanted Bainimarama evaluated for mental stability have run up to him with a volley of tabua in a colourful display of matanigasau. Even Ratu Inoke Takeiveikata — the mastermind behind the Speight putsch — has reconciled, and there are similar overtures from the Methodist Church. Former nationalists like Kubuabola are now the international affairs face of the Fiji Government.

"Indo-Fijians generally support any political initiative in Fiji which is free from all forms of racial discrimination. Bavadra tried to bring about change through democratic elections, he was deposed and Chaudhry met a similar fate in 2000 but Bainimarama has started a new political paradigm of re-engineering indigenous institutions so that they are aligned to his reforms. Some academics, union leaders. NGOs do not share Bainimarama’s social engineering but as in any situation, there will be support and resistance to any form of political change and Fiji is no different."

KERR SAYS AUSTRALIA NEEDS NEW STRATEGY. Australia's former Parliamentary Secretary for the Pacific Island Affairs Duncan Kerr says Australia needs a new approach to Fiji, and should "move towards a strategic re-engagement." He said the re-engagement of other countries with Fiji, including the US (that was concerned about China's rising influence in the region) suggests it is time for Australia to follow suit.

"What I want to do," he said, "is distinguish between Australia maintaining its opposition to the form of governance in Fiji. That is, expressing diplomatically that we must continue to press for a democratically-elected regime. But, on the other hand, getting involved in the practical things that will prevent whoever gains governance in Fiji inheriting a wasteland."  Re-engagement could include assistance with  poverty alleviation, the sugar industry, land reform and allowing Fiji back into the PACER-plus regional trade talks.

He said Fiji's economic situation was serious; Australia should not normalise diplomatic relations, but it should support "the prospects that Fiji can move effectively towards democratic elections in 2014 ... We can act without giving sanction to the legitimacy of the regime [and] recognise that the present policies are leading everyone into a place where no-one wins."

Mr Kerr says both countries could take steps to show goodwill towards each other."The government of Fiji might, for example, withdraw the state of emergency. There are steps they could take that would show stronger goodwill towards the outcome of moving back to normalcy and the commitment to democratic elections in 2014," he said.

"But [Australia] could also take steps forward which give a sense of our goodwill... we need not to everything at one time, as we could perhaps make some initiatives." But we may want to also flag some things that would be conditional on steps forward, concrete achieved steps by the government of Fiji that would then in a sense be benchmarks for further re-engagement."

Editor's Note: I think there is now sufficient evidence to say that there has been a shift in international opinion on Fiji, no doubt accelerated by Hillary Clinton's recent visit.  The unrealistic demand for immediate elections has been dropped; it is more widely accepted that the Australian and New Zealand "isolation" policies have failed politically, but there is as yet no acceptance that these same policies have caused immense economic damage to the Fiji economy and its people.

I think it reasonable that Australia should expect to see evidence of "concrete steps" towards normalcy, starting with the lifting of PER. But it is equally reasonable to expect Australia and New Zealand to progressively lift their sanctions, starting with the travel bans. They should also take steps to persuade the UN,the EU and the Commonwealth to lift the damaging sanctions they urged them to impose. But what Kerr says is not what Gillard does. It takes two to tango. Read on ...

KUBUABOLA DISAPPOINTED WITH SKEPTICAL GILLARD.  Foreign Minister Ratu Inoke Kubuabola has expressed disappointment about the Australian PM's comments that she is “very skeptical” that the 2014 elections will be held and that the best thing to be done was to “maximise pressure on Fiji.”

Ratu Inoke said elections would be held in 2014 not because of Australian Government pressure  but because it is the firm commitment of the Fiji Government under the nation’s strategic framework for change. Moveover, the elections will be held under universal suffrage without regard to race for the first time in Fiji’s history. 

Minister Kubuabola said there was much positive preparatory work to be done between now and 2014 by Fiji and its international friends, and it would not be deterred by skeptics. Meanwhile, all 14 Provincial Councils have endorsed the Roadmap and the great majority of the international community has expressed their support and understanding.

The Minister said he failed to understand why Canberra was still sowing seeds of doubt with its “very sceptical” message. Nor did he understand how Canberra’s position could be constructive or in any way good for regional stability. He said if Canberra was genuine about wanting dialogue and engagement, Fiji’s door was open.  He said he hoped such dialogue could be conducted in a spirit of positive diplomacy and that Canberra would soon drop its prescriptive and negative policy on Fiji. -- Based on 1851/MOI. Note: Her actual position may have changed following the Clinton visit.

LOMAIVITI MEETING. In reaffirming government’s support for the chiefly status of the ‘vanua’ and its leadership when he opened the Lomaiviti Provincial Council meeting yesterday, the PM urged the chiefs  to have regular dialogue with their people in order to achieve government’s initiative of uplifting their living standards, and cautioned that new submissions to the village bylaws should not contradict national laws and legislation.

The PM said Lomaiviti had used $5.6m for family assistance schemes, 29 self help programmes, road upgrading works on Gau, Koro and Ovalau Islands, farming assistance schemes, Cyclone Tomas rehabilitation programmes and rural electrifications in 2009. He added that four companies had shown an interest in harvesting and treating pine logs in the province. -- Based on 2010, No: 1855/MOI.

BUDGET DAY ANNOUNCED. The PM and Minister of Finance will deliver the 2011 National Budget to the nation on Fiday 26th of this month at the FIRCA complex in Suva. Submissions from various organizations are currently being made to the Finance Ministry as the government works out its expenditure allocations and revenue measures for next year.

INVITE TO NZ LAW SOCIETY. Solicitor-General Christopher Pryde has invited the President of the NZ Law Society Jonathan Temm to attend the 12th annual Fiji Attorney-General’s Conference next month, and while in Fiji to observe how the law is being applied in the country.Christine Gounder reports for RNZI that the conference is "normally attended by members of the Fiji judiciary and legal profession, diplomats and policy-makers. Mr Temm will have the opportunity to exchange views with Fiji’s Attorney-General and members of the legal profession.”

Among topics likely to be discussed is the deregistration of the Fiji Law Society which deprived the FLS of its power to issue lawyers' licences practice and making membership voluntary.

Beyond the Gibberish, Possible Crusher Sabotage

Commonwealth Gibberish
Opinion
Crosbie Walsh

I don't really know why the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group¹ needed to meet in New York to discuss Fiji over the weekend. It said little and achieved nothing. The CMAG expressed its concern about the "lack of progress made toward the restoration of civilian constitutional democracy in Fiji[and hoped Fiji would take]the necessary steps to enable the restoration of its full participation in the Commonwealth as soon as possible."

Photo: See footnote 3, below.

But Fiji has made it abundantly clear -- for over a year now -- that elections would not be held until 2014, and it has given its reasons. The most that can be hoped for is the lifting of the Public Emergency Regulations, increased civilian involvement in government and more dialogue, with political dialogue starting before 2012. Why didn't CMAG push for this approach?

The CMAG "reaffirmed their solidarity with the people of Fiji." They said they were ready "to assist Fiji in appropriate ways on its path back to constitutional democracy, consistent with Commonwealth values and principles.”  And they reaffirmed the Commonwealth's "continued efforts to engage in constructive dialogue with the Fiji government and other stakeholders, particularly through the Secretary-General’s Special Representative [Sir Paul Reeves], and encouraged such engagement in good faith to continue." Sounds reasonable but there was no moderation of positions since the last time they met.

What does this gobbledygook² mean?
The CMAG thinks the situation in Fiji before the 2006 Coup was an unimpaired democracy. They do not recognize any of the worthwhile policies and actions of the Fiji Government. I do not know what they mean by "solidarity with the people of Fiji." It could mean anything, or nothing. They think an early election is the way to resolve Fiji's deep-seated problems. They will only assist when elections loom. They will not relax sanctions or urge others to do so, even though they are hurting ordinary people in Fiji and making economic recovery more difficult. They will continue to follow the lead of Forum countries,led by Australia and New Zealand. There is absolutely nothing new in their statement. But to assume, as some readers have, that this was a statement separate from that of the EU that also continued its sanctions last week, is, I think, a little naive. All such statements are clearly taking their lead from the Pacific Forum that is taking its lead from Australia and New Zealand. Hear one and you have heard them all.  The only country slightly out of step is the US where Hillary Clinton has signalled she wants fresh engagement with Fiji.³

Beyond Gibberish: What could have been said? 
After acknowledging the "positive" legislation passed in recent months and logistical work being done by the Elections Office, CMAG could have defined more precisely what they mean by "progress" with a proposed timetable (and inducements) for each major step. For example, the immediate lifting of PER, a larger and more representative Strategic Framework for Change office, more civilian representation in Government at all levels, the commencement and conclusion of dialogue on the Constitution and electoral reform, more open discussion in the media about these issues, and finally the elections.

And what could Fiji have done? Fiji could have provided the Roadmap timetable and said that with overseas legal, advisory and  financial assistance --and the lifting or progressive easing of sanctions-- Fiji should be able to bring everything forward six months (and electoral dialogue 12 months).  This would result in  major political dialogue starting late next year -- with public informal discussions earlier -- and the elections being held in late 2013 or early 2014. 

The art of diplomacy is compromise but it takes two to tango.

¹The CMAG comprises Australia, Bangladesh, Ghana (chair), Jamaica, Maldives, Namibia, New Zealand, Trinidad and Tobago, Vanuatu.
² Gobbledygook=bureaucratese, a kind of doublespeak. Doublespeak=meaningless speech that consists of nonsense syllables mixed with intelligible words; gibberish.
³ United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has told Fiji's Foreign Affairs Minister Ratu Inoke Kubuabola that the US wants dialogue and partnership with Fiji.

CRUSH SABOTAGE? With mill boilers at Rarawai, Labasa and Lautoka sugar mills all breaking down within the span of only a few weeks, Permanent Secretary for Sugar Manasa Vaniqi is wondering whether sabotage is involved. He thinks the breakdowns are too common to be a consequence of old machinery.

“We are not blaming anyone but based on the reports that we have been receiving there seems to be a consistent breakdown on that particular area of the boiler. And people are not fixing it. And we are going down to the bottom of that one, the investigation is ongoing and we are waiting for the report.” The mill engineering upgrade programmes are achieving nothing.

Australian Meddling Part of Agenda to Dominate Fiji

Tom Orsag 

in Solidarity

Bringing Fiji Back from the Cold

By Vidya S Sharma 

in Business-Standard

India must impress on New Zealand and Australia the need to engage with Fiji and persuade them to help Fiji implement a racially neutral polity.

Bainimarama's Northern Tour, China Unsettles Oz, Aid, Tourism Dollar

BAINIMARAMA'S NORTHERN TOUR. It's interesting what the PM's provincial tours reveal other than necessary but huge rural infrastructure spending. For the North, this included roads, small loans access, phone coverage and bauxite mining in Bua as reported on Friday. And in Cakaudrove new and upgraded roads, rural electrification and upgraded Savusavu and Taveuni hospitals.

But from Macuata we also again learn of concerns about illegal logging that seems to be linked to bribes and corruption. Nothing seems to have been done to rout it out since the PM's last visit. And from Cakaudrove we learn about rumblings and animosity among the vanua, though what exactly the media did not report. Commissioner Northern LtCol Inia Seruiratu did, however, tell the people to sort out their own problems, saying that Government will only step in only when needed.

“Government respects chiefly decisions that holds the people together,” he said. Government interference could add to animosity. “We don’t want to spoil the relationship that exists between the people and their vanua. Development should bring about improved living standards and not animosity." So the Government is not against chiefs per se, afterall Bainimarama is also a chief, just chiefs who  abuse their people's trust.


CHINA TIES WILL UNSETTLE AUSTRALIA. ANU's Prof.John Warhurst says China's efforts to be more influential in the South Pacific will unsettle Australia.He says, "What has happened in Fiji over the last 10 or 15 years now with the number of coups probably leads Australian policy-makers and the general community to throw their hands up and say 'look, this is beyond our doing anything about it'. The question of a superpower like China injecting itself into the Pacific I think would have long-term worries for Australia," Warhurst said. He thinks China could undermine a region that is already destabilized, while a greater role for Beijing in the South Pacific might overshadow Australia's role as the biggest power in the neighborhood.

The remarks were made in light of Bainimarama's comment while visiting China last week that he is prepared to abandon his country's traditional political ties in the region in favor of China. He stressed, however, that Fiji will continue to trade with New Zealand and Australia.

OZ AID. Australia has donated a $40,000 fibreglass boat, the “Vuniwai ni Beqa,” and three vehicles to the Health Department. The boat will be used for medical purposes serving the islands of Beqa and Yanuca, of the Navua-Pacific Harbour coast, and the vehicles for use by the typhoid campaign in the Northern, Western and Eastern Divisions.  The handing over ceremony last week at the Health Headquarters included the donation of three vehicles to help in the Ministry of Health typhoid campaign.--  Based on 2010 No:1285/MOI.

ADB/GOVERNMENT HELP WATER AUTHORITY.The Fiji government and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have assisted the Water Authority of Fiji with a $23 million loan to revamp the Waila water treatment plant.

HOTEL OCCUPANCY RATES have returned to the normal 60%, up from 40% over the past two years, and Reserve Bank Governor, Sada Reddy is calling on the hotel industry to invest now to ensure a good mix of rooms as tourism increases further over the next two to three years.

LESS THAN A HALF OF A TOURIST DOLLAR. Sada Reddy  also expressed dissatisfaction that Fiji retains only about 44 cents of tourism dollar compared with developing countries, 50-60 cents, and advanced countries, between 80-90 cents. Fiji's low rate is largely due to leakages through loss of VAT from packaged tours, borrowings from foreign banks and foreign ownership of the large hotels.

"Almost all service provided to packaged tours are of a domestic nature, excluding Air Pacific. Therefore VAT should be payable on all domestic services. Unfortunately, Fiji has been losing out on the VAT revenue for packaged tours. Government should study this issue and see how they can plug this leakage."

After Natadola

Scroll down for weekend postings. Look right to see Quote for the Week.

Opinion 

Crosbie Walsh

It's far too early to even guess at the medium to long-term influence of  last week's Engaging with Fiji meeting at Natadola, but with very contrary statements coming from participants and non-participants, some assessment it necessary.

The three statements about Fiji in the Natadola Communique (see below) which had the unanimous endorsement of participants were certainly supportive of the Bainimarama Government's Strategic Framework for Change,  elections in 2014, and continuing dialogue with Fiji, but as John Key pointed out, this does not necessarily mean that the Pacific leaders will call for Fiji's readmittance at the Forum when it meets in Vila next month.

It could, however, mean that Australia and New Zealand will be urged to relax their sanctions and re-engage with Fiji in a more meaningful manner.  They will have certainly lost some traction after Natadola, and they could lose more if they do not heed the Pacific undercurrents. So, some fine-tuning of their position may be expected, if only they can find ways to make changes without losing face.  An imminent major policy change seems unlikely.

Those seeking to detract from the importance of Natadola went to some lengths to downplay attendance.   Samoan PM Tailaepa said it was an "awkward invitation" which Pacific cultural protocol made it difficult to refuse. This sort of explained the attendance of other leaders -- but not  his own refusal.  Another commentator said Sir Michael Somare only went for the golf and Dr Derek Sikua for the opening of the Solomon Islands Chancery in Suva. And Australian broadcaster Philippa Macdonald said there were only three prime ministers among the 15 countries represented.  She did not say that this was an unexpected large  attendance considering the strenuous Australian efforts to discourage any attendance at all.  Australia wanted the meeting boycotted.

In fact, few Pacific countries were absent.  Of the larger Melanesian nations, only Vanuatu's PM (who, without due consultation, had cancelled the Melanesian Spearhead Group meeting that was replaced by the Natadola meeting) was missing, and even he sent his Foreign Minister.  From the  smaller nations originally invited to the MSG Plus meeting, Tuvalu's PM was present as was the Kiribati President. Representation from the northern Pacific did not include presidents or heads of government  because of a prior sub-regional commitment, but Marshall Islands, FSM and Nauru were represented, as were Timor Leste, Tonga, Niue, and the small territories of Tokelau and French Wallis and Futuna.  Cook Islands apologized saying it was preoccupied with its budget. Only Australia, New Zealand and Samoa were absent without explanation or apology.   It is difficult to palm off a meeting where 15 countries were officially represented as a gathering of nobodies, nincompoops  or toadies.

Australia's and New Zealand's absence did not unduly concern Sir Michael who said they did not really think of themselves as Pacific nations.

Recently, Australia's Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith said that it is "difficult to have a dialogue with a military dictator who doesn't want to engage."  One consequence of Natadola is that Pacific Island leaders will now be even more aware that this is demonstrably untrue. In fact, the boot is on the other foot. It is Smith who does not want to talk with Bainimarama.  He has been twice invited to Fiji in recent months. The first time he and Murray McCully fouled up the invitation, and he turned down the invitation to come to Natadola. This was a deliberate  snub to Bainimarama, which  many  Pacific Islanders would see as discourteous and  not the Pacific Way.  The snub  also left the field totally open to Bainimarama, as his predecessor, Alex Downer, who thinks Smith should have gone to Natadola, rightly pointed out.

Australia's absence at Natadola and the probable absence of Julia Gillard and even Stephen Smith at the Pacific Forum meeting in Vila in two week's time, has led another commentator to say, "We are losing ground to a dictator  ...  That sends a regrettably clear message to the region as to our government's priorities."

This messsage would  have been read loud and clear at Natadola where leaders heard presentations urging a break from aid dependency, widening intra-regional trade and co-operation, and trade with Asia.

Addressing the meeting ,  UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) representative in the Pacific, Samoan Iosefa Maiava,  told leaders there were many opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region, which the Pacific Islands can tap into, and that the Pacific needs to grow partnerships with Asian countries.  He said import percentage ratings show the Pacific was now importing more from the Asian region than that combined together of both Australia and New Zealand."

So with Australia otherwise preoccupied, what has Fiji gained?

Fiji broadcaster Stanley Simpson thinks Natadola shows "recognition for Fiji's continuous engagement in the region and full participation in regional development, institutions and aspirations."   This view gains support from Kiribati President Anote Tong , "Fiji will always be an important partner for all Pacific Island states;" from Solomon Islands PM Dr Derek Sikua who said his main aim in attending was to "show support for Fiji," and in Sir Michael's  comment that "Fiji should determine its own destiny  ...Fiji is out of the Forum but as Pacific nations we need to look out for each other, that is why I'm here."

Somare  said Bainimarama "is the leader of his people. It is his responsibility. If we have to report back to the main Forum, we will tell them  'this is what's going on in Fiji' ... He has given a timeline for democratic elections. He's the leader and has been recognised now for almost four years and we have to allow him to determine the future of his own people ... this is what Fiji wants, we have to allow them to do what they want."

Three paragraphs of the Communique clearly show an understanding and, I think, an acceptance of the Fiji situation that is not shared with Australia and New Zealand.  They read:

5.    Agreed that Fiji’s Strategic Framework for Change (SFC) is a credible home-grown process for positioning Fiji as a modern nation and to hold true democratic elections;

6.    Agreed that important lessons could be learnt and shared within the region, from Fiji’s experience and Fiji’s implementation of the Strategic Framework for Change;

7.    Recognised the need for Fiji’s continuous engagement with the region and its full participation in regional development, initiatives and aspirations.

Discussion at Natadola was not limited to the Fiji situation. Hold your breath -- Joint ventures in fish processing, coral and marine resource protection, bilateral arrangements on mining exploration, education, investment opportunities, economic opportunities in Asia, climate change and sea level rise, the high cost of consultancy fees, the integration of tourism and knowledge-based economies, a possible regional police academy, modernising laws, co-operation  in trade, regional tourism, education, shipping, aviation, labour mobility, private sector co-operation, the efforts of he Pacific Conference of Churches on a sustainable Pacific development model, and the possibility of Fiji acting as a regional hub for a range of activities -- were also discussed.  A mini trade fair was also held during the meeting.

The two messages  I took from the meeting were, first, the willingness to foster Pacific Islands regional co-operation and solidarity, and the special attention given to the concerns of the Small Islands Development States; and, secondly,  the obvious support for the Fiji predicament.

In many ways, of course, Pacific leaders are between the proverbial rock and a hard place. Their solidarity will come under pressure when they return home and as Australian and New Zealand pressures resume.  But they have sounded a warning.  They are not happy with the way Fiji is being treated. They detect a whiff of bullying and neo-colonialism. They clearly want Australia and New Zealand to recognize Fiji's Roadmap and accept that elections will not be held until 2014.  Not all are heavily aid dependent.  They are receptive to suggestions of a closer Asian connection.  And, although they may not move for Fiji's readmittance to the Forum in Vila next month, they will be calling for more dialogue and less rigid exclusion of Fiji from regional fora.

How permanent their position is cannot be known. Somare and Sikua (and Vanuatu's Natapei) may no longer be prime ministers in a few month's time and their successors may march to a different tune.  But there will be another meeting at Natadola in a year's time.  Fiji's geographic position and regional importance will be unchanged .  And -- unless they play it right over the next few months --  Australia and New Zealand may well have drifted  just that much further away.

Indeed, there's evidence, even more telling than our present sub-antarctic weather, that New Zealand may have already drifted away.  There's  been little to no mention of the Natadola meeting and its important communique by our media, that is usually so quick to pick up even the smallest morsels of negative news from Fiji.  But I may been reading too much into this omission: Michael Field could just have taken the weekend off.

Postscript Monday.   I spoke too quickly.  He was pounding away on his personal blog. For readers who do not already know Michael Field's ideas on what constitutes informed, reasoned and balanced comment, and a journalist's code of professional ethics, access this link to his account of Natadola. His "sanatised" version could well be published by the mainstream media today. 

Public Sector Reforms: 6. Effects of the Travel Bans

Edited extracts from my Interview with Parmesh Chand, Permanent Secretary Public Service Commission. Vinaka, Tui, for this transcript.

Croz: How are travel bans affecting you?

Parmesh Chand: All the Permanent Secretaries are on the travel ban. Any official who accepts a senior appointment in government which is a gazette appointment. They pick up the Gazette notice and put you on travel ban. 


I was a permanent secretary long before the coup. The permanent secretary in the Prime Minister’s office got pushed out so did a number of others. I was one of the two top performing permanent secretaries. The other lady who was my counterpart, she got appointed by the Ministry of Education and I got selected to go to PrimeMinister’s Office and then came the travel ban on me and my family.

I’m still on the travel ban and New Zealand and Australian Officials will not come to this
office to discuss anything. I think they should relax the travel ban on government officials at least. I mean the civil servants are contracted by the Public Service Commission to provide a service.

I can understand why the ban is on the key people but I can’t see why it comes down to the
civil service, nor I can’t see why it goes to the lower ranks or the rugby? 


Australia runs a leadership programme called PACE and permanent secretaries are in positions of leadership. They lead ministries. But they don’t invite permanent secretaries. They will send you the invites and if you register your name, they will say no it was not meant for you .

I attended a Pacific Island Commissioners' Conference of Public Service held in the
Solomon Islands that was funded by the Commonwealth, Australia and New Zealand. But they refused to fund us so we decided to fund ourselves and went. It became obvious that we were being sidelined, so the Tongan guy stood up and said, 'Look, Fiji has got the largest
public service out of the Pacific Island countries and they have paid their way to be here. Why are we excluding them?' So the Australians and Kiwi’s chickened out after that, although they didn’t reimburse us anything. We didn’t want anything but we wanted to be
treated properly.

Thoughts on Fiji: The Wrong End of the Stick

 John de Bueger,  a New Plymouth writer and engineer,  reckons we might all have got the wrong end of the stick about Fijian hard man Frank Bainimarama.


After a less than perfect in-transit-stop-off-holiday in Tahiti about 30 years ago, I declared that nothing short of a team of wild horses would drag me to sample afresh the tropical delights of silver sands, balmy breezes and coconut trees - anywhere. Consequently I have never been to Fiji.

The place has seldom been far from the headlines since the last coup, and the recent crop of stiff penalties against journalists and media organisations who portray the present regime in less-than-glowing terms, suggests Helen Clark had grounds for waging a vendetta against the good commodore and his merry men. But is Commodore Bainimarama in fact a better interim deal than the bunch of racially riven gentlemen he turfed out?

It is all very well harping on about how terrible losing democracy is - as if that is the sole criterion by which to judge a country. Try telling the Chinese that and see how far you get. They will curtly remind you that after 5000 years of civilised turmoil, they are not about to risk hare-brained ideas like democracy.

The old adage that democracy cannot be imported was demonstrated again when it delivered the Gaza Strip into the hands of Hamas; and its record in tribal whirlpools such as Iraq or Africa shows it's not for everyone. Unless a country has a dominant law-abiding middle class who will not countenance corruption, you can forget about democratic universal suffrage. Where this essential element is missing, democracy just won't work. As far as Fiji is concerned, Helen Clark and Murray McCully both signally failed to understand this fundamental truth, and barked up the wrong tree.

A few months ago we had a brunch with my daughter's boyfriend's parents - who had recently returned home after lecturing at the University of the South Pacific in Suva for several years. They confirmed what I had long suspected: we aren't being fed the whole truth about Fiji.

Not everyone in Fiji is unhappy at the turn of events - particularly those who had been on the wrong end of tribal dictates, corruption or racial discrimination. There is an implicit general understanding that the place needs cleaning up, and that this can only happen under a strongman who won't tolerate the mates-rates, sweetheart deals that had proliferated under democracy.

Recently, I had a most interesting chat with a Taranaki businessman who travels to Fiji regularly, and who has many contacts throughout that country. He told me most people in Fiji aren't in a state of sullen acceptance, but, on balance, consider the commodore to be a welcome change, and a great improvement on his predecessor, Laisenia Qarase. The latter was installed as prime minister after being rescued by Frank Bainimarama from the thug George Speight, who is at present incarcerated. Also, the essential changes are being made, slowly but surely.

Under the commodore, street gangs who had terrorised neighbourhoods have been well and truly sorted, schoolchildren get free transport to school, and native landowners have been ordered either to use their arable land or lease it (thereby putting it back into production). For the first time, dual citizenship is allowed, giving the expatriate community some certainty about their futures, efforts and investments.

It is not widely appreciated that the reason for the coup was to stop three Bills being passed by the Qarase Government: "The Qoli Qoli Bill", which would have handed ownership of the foreshore and seabed (and the huge tourist industry) to local villagers, and given them a windfall at the expense of those in the interior; the "The Forgive and Forget Bill", which would have freed George Speight; and the "This is Mine Bill", a load of crazy nonsense whereby if you think that something belongs to you, then others have to disprove it.

Fiji is a strategic neighbour which needs help to develop its huge resources for the benefit of its people. At last, it has a genuinely non-racist leader who, while being a rough disciplinarian, is not corrupt.

Bainimarama is a resolute, honourable man, who won't be bullied and who is probably about right when he says it will take until 2014 to sort the place out. His main worry is potential assassination.

It would make rather more sense if we calmed down and asked, "Neighbour, how can we help?"

How Aussies, Pommies, Brij Lal, Usaia Waqatairewa & Paul Holmes See Fiji

(-+) HOW AUSSIES SEE FIJI. If the saying "one picture is worth a thousand words" is correct, the Australian media need not write a single word on the situation in Fiji. This one picture, shown as it is over and over again, could persuade Australians that Bainimarama never changes his clothes.  But it's more likely they'll conclude: That's how it is in Fiji, a country ruled by a sour-faced military dictator, with soldiers in the streets terrorising the populace.

I've been criticised for calling this sort of media coverage propaganda but what else can it be called?

However, to their credit the photo was accompanied by a reasonable report that had Bainimarama saying Fiji's stability was his top priority; he was focusing on building a better Fiji not on contesting elections; he had not considered standing in the future elections, but wanted to hand a stable country over to a new government in 2014. He says that process will include ensuring the country's citizens are socially, economically and politically stable, and ready to go to the polls under a new voting system.

Actually the article was almost a direct lift from an earlier FijiVillage report that went on to add the PM's remarks on his return from a tour of the Northern Division (Fiji's second largest island Vanua Levu).  The PM said he wanted to provide immediate relief to the farmers who are facing major difficulties due to some policies of the Native Land Trust Board and the Fiji Sugar Corporation.

(o) HELPFUL COMMENTS FROM UK. High Commissioner Mac McLachlan, speaking at a Queens' Birthday cocktail party on Thursday,  said several important things:

• Britain stands ready to help "any credible process" that aims to resolve Fiji’s economic and political challenges; 
• "there is synergy between Fiji’s economic and political challenges – and that it is difficult to resolve one without the other;" 
•  Britain recognises the challenges Fiji is going through; 
• There is a need to identify and tackle blockages for progress to be made; 
• It is important to find sustainable solutions and an enabling atmosphere within which to pursue them.

He concluded by saying his government is aware of the governance challenges confronting many Pacific island nations today. Constitutions and electoral systems that might have looked right when nations gained their independence 30 years ago need to be modernised and amended to meet today’s need.

Such comments, which reflect the diplomatic maturity of Fiji's former ruler, should make the governments of two other former colonies -- Australia and New Zealand -- hang their heads in shame. No wonder Fiji stills holds Britain and the Queen in such high regard.

(-+) FIJI PLANS TO HIGHJACK MELANESIAN SPEARHEAD GROUP. That's what Prof. Brij Lal says.  Read it for yourself by clicking on this link.  What Brij did not say was that this was long after Australia and New Zealand had pushed for Fiji's suspension from the PI Forum and Pacer Plus discussions, despite the obvious reluctance of other Melanesian countries.

Both move and counter-move are likely to undermine the Forum, and possibly change the whole geopolitics in the Pacific as Fiji is forced to look North for new friends.  It could be argued that the first highjackers were Australia and New Zealand.  Like so many issues, the conclusion reached depends on where the mental journey started.

(-+) BLOG ATTACKS BAINIMARAMA'S LIFESTYLE. Usaia Waqatairewa of the Sydney-based Fiji Democracy and Freedom  says Bainimarama's annual salary and allowances amount to US$60,000 while "half of the people are living in poverty."  He said  "New Zealand and Australia need to help bring fairness to ordinary people in Fiji. They should do something more to try and push this guy out because he’s not going to go willingly. He’s living there, he’s enjoying the luxury life that he’s never seen before, that he never believed that he could afford before. This guy was entrusted with the responsibility of security and he’s turned it against the very people that’s he’s supposed to be looking after.”

Usaia, Bainimarama's salary and lifestyle is similar to that of former PMs (did you ever criticize them?); his former lifestyle as Military Commander was pretty good; and how precisely do you think Australia and New Zealand should "push this guy out"? RadioNZInternational, what makes Usaia's views newsworthy? His only accurate statement was on the extremes of wealth in Fiji.  It's probably worse than five or so years ago but it's not new to Fiji, and the rich-poor gap has increased in many other countries, including the two countries he calls upon to come to Fiji's rescue.

(+) THE AUCKLAND HERALD REPORTS PAUL HOLMES FROM QAMEA, FIJI. In an entertainingly light article, broadcaster and TV personality extraordinaire, loved and hated in equal measure by New Zealanders, Paul writes of his holiday at a Qamea Island resort owned by Kiwis. His comments on the villages devastated by Hurricane Tomas and worker-boss relations at the resort are well worth a read, as is his account of fishing, but most interesting is this extract: "As for Commodore Frank Bainimarama? Well, on the odd occasion when his name has come up, and it hasn't very often, I hear nothing but good. People seem to feel that he is doing well, rooting out corruption in the army and the police.

"There is consternation at the attitude of Australia and New Zealand. Bainimarama has made transport to schools free. This is particularly good for people on outer islands such as this one, where going to school involved a boat ride and then a bus, twice a day. And with us turning up our noses at Bainimarama, the Chinese money is pouring in, wouldn't you know."  Well, I never. This is what they think on Qamea, a small island to the east of Taveuni, and a long way from Suva.

A reader writes:  "High profile NZ broadcaster Paul Holmes (ex NewstalkZB radio host) is an award-winning Herald on Sunday columnist (N Z Herald) and also presents a political programme on TVNZ called Q&A. He has just been to Fiji staying on an island at a resort called Qamea. Today he wrote his usual Sunday column about his present holiday in Fiji. His anecdotal comment on Frank Bainimarama was interesting because he has not been positive in the past – more neutral to negative. No doubt he learnt first hand about the changes that have been going on in Fiji – from the grass roots people. When we were over in Fiji in May we heard exactly the same comments from “mainland” Fijians, Suva to Nadi.

Perhaps Pacific Forum Secretary-General, Samoan Tuiloma Neroni Slade [who Bainimarama accuses of giving false information about Fiji to Forum members] should go and visit this island resort too! I wonder if Murray McCully read the Herald today."

3. What New Zealand Can Do to Help Resolve the Fiji Political Situation

Since writing the previous article in this three part series, Bainimarama's remark about the "people" wanting  him to stay on after 2014 has been taken up by his opponents as the first sign he's not serious about elections. His remark was not read in its context. He was illustrating the support he had during his provincial tours to debunk Smith and McCully's remarks that the situation in Fiji had deteriorated. There never was any suggestion that  elections would not be held in September 2014. See this FijiLive clarification.  

Photo: NZ PM John Key --- looking for an answer?

"They still cannot and do not want to understand the situation in Fiji and in doing that Australia and New Zealand have failed to understand and recognize my Government’s efforts in creating a country that is non-racial, culturally vibrant and united, well governed, fully democratic nation that seeks progress and prosperity through merit based equality, opportunity and peace. That is what we been telling these people for the last four years.” --- Bainimarama. http://www.radiofiji.com.fj/fullstory.php?id=28260

Opinion: Crosbie Walsh

There are four essentials.

• One, Bainimarama and the Fiji Government must be treated with the respect due to a sovereign nation. It is a studded insult to refer to Bainimarama as the interim PM and Ratu Inoke Kubuabola as the interim Foreign Minister.  Bainimarama is the de facto PM and there's nothing interim about it. Nothing is achieved by insulting the man you wish to influence. 
• Two, the first move, aimed at triggering positive responses from Fiji, must come from New Zealand or Australia.Why? Because Fiji already made its move in inviting the Ministers to Fiji. The invitation was withdrawn after the Ministers' comments.  It's our move.
•  Three, each positive step taken by Fiji should be publicly acknowledged and welcomed, and followed by a further quid pro quo "concession" from New Zealand.  One-off negative steps by Fiji should not be exaggerated or dramatised. They are better overlooked or discussed behind the scenes. An open exchange of angry or disparaging words should be avoided. 
• Four,  no further attempts should be made to bring the elections forward from 2014; concentrate instead on the suggested actions listed below.

Our government and Australia's should also cease their covert support for the ousted Qarase government and urge Fiji government opponents to reassess their position. No SAS paratroopers are coming to their rescue and no helicopter will swoop down on the military barracks to abduct Bainimarama.

While, ultimately, it is what governments do that decide national outcomes, our media should be encouraged to play a better informed positive role -- or at least stop playing a negative role. Its Fiji coverage  has been so partisan that it's often an embarrassment to the fair-minded. And TV could start by showing Bainimarama wearing something other than a military uniform.

Governments and politicians do not pluck foreign policies, strategies and tactics out of the air. Our Government turns for advice  and information to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and NZAid.  Government should instruct these advisers to prioritise work on how to break the impasse and improve our relations with Fiji. The longer the present situation is allowed to deteriorate, the harder it will be to remedy.The Ministry needs to re-think its sources, information and advice on Fiji and start again from square one.

These are the things I think NZ (and Australia) can do to restore relations with Fiji and  help resolve the political situation. My suggestions are listed in roughly easier-to-harder order of difficulty, with a comment added where necessary.

• Try immediately to restore the lost ground, by behind the scenes approaches
• Amend travel advisories, indicating that visitors need only take the normal precautions
• Make the NZ High Commission in Suva more pro-active in meeting government and trade officials
• Restore the previous normal access to the NZ High Commission floors in the Reserve Bank Building.  I understand even applications for visas now have to come by courier post!
• Do not discourage, and in some areas encourage, NZ trade and investment activities in Fiji
• Ease up on the Travel bans, starting with the families of non-military officials
• Restore full working relations with Fiji in all regional agencies other than the Forum
• Progressively encourage more Fiji participation in Pacer and Forum affairs
• Sustain pressure for human rights improvements by all means but give, where it is due, credit for social justice and other improvements.
• Inform the Commonwealth, the EU and other international agencies that some social justice issues are improving, and generally give credit where credit is due.
• Offer technical assistance on anti-corruption measures, legal draftsmanship, constitutional law, electoral reforms, and other areas where Fiji lacks, and we have, the necessary expertise
• Progressively restore full diplomatic relations

Finally, there should be no sense of shame or back pedalling in modifying our dealings with Fiji. In the real world, policies often have to fit situations because ever-changing situations rarely fit policies. 

We will not be adopting a new approach because we approve of coups or the Bainimarama government. Our new approach will simply reflect our improved understanding of how best to deal with the realities of a de facto government. We will be making the most of a difficult situation, ever intent on the need to achieve the best outcomes for our near neighbour -- and for ourselves.

The last thing either country needs, and this is not the first time I've said it,  is a failed coup.  Some permanent traction needs to come from the roller coaster events of the last three and one-half years.

Rotuma Day, Hurricane Tomas Costs, AusNZ Aid, Flashback: Qarase on Bainimarama

NA SALA CAVA?  Readers are urged to scroll down to the three "Way Forward" questions, read what others think, and add their own comments. I will summarize these on Wednesay and post a further question for your consideration.

ROTUMA DAY, marking the anniversary of the island's cessation to Britain in 1881, is usually  celebrated on May 13 or the following Saturday. Fiji Rotuman Association chairman Roy Fiu used the occasion to highlight awareness about culture and language that many born outside Rotuma know little about.

Speaking on the second day of the celebrations in Suva, PM Bainimarama said one of Government's visions is to make Rotuma a well developed Island. Work has alreadsy been done to make Rotuma a port of entry and the first direct exports to Tuvalu had gone ahead as planned, but the $15 million airport concfrete runway upgrade planned for this year had been delayed. The PM saidCabinet has already approved additional funding and they are on the verge of seeking funds from the Ministry of Finance.  Infrastructure and outer island development are part of the Roadmap.

HURRICANE TOMAS COST ONE BILLION. Speaking at the 18th session of the UN Commission on Sustainable Development, PS PM' office Col. Pio Tikoduadua said:The evidence of negative impacts of climate change on the Pacific region are many and two of Fiji’s close neighbouring countries, Tuvalu and Kiribati, are starkexamples of that.In the case of my own country, Fiji, the effects of changing weather patterns have been felt heavily by our people. The rate at which natural disasters, such as floods and hurricanes, have hit Fiji and their severity have increased markedly in the recent years. For the first time in 35 years, we experienced the devastation of a Category 4 cyclone in February this year, costing our economy more than F$100 million." (extract)

AUSNZ HURRICANE AID will increase by A$1m and NZ$600k to rebuild homes, schools and health centres affected by the hurricane. The money will be given to Habitat for Humanity Fiji which has a track record of successful delivery of house reconstruction and cyclone proofing following the January 2009 floods. The two countries previously gifted A$1m and NZ$1m.

FLASHBACK DEC. 1, 2006. QARASE SAYS BAINIMARAMA "DERANGED, UNSTABLE."In an interview on Radio Tarana as reported by Michael Field, PM Qarase branded Bainimarama "deranged" and "unstable"."We are dealing with somebody who is completely deranged and unstable so that's part of the problem," he said. When asked if he thought Bainimarama was mentally stable, he replied: "I think that should be obvious to anybody."

As the midday deadline for Bainimarama's threatened military coup passed with no obvious signs of a military take-over today. The capital was quiet and Bainimarama was at the Suva sports stadium watching a soccer match between the army and police.  

Meanwhile, PM Qarase said he was counting on divine intervention to prevent the country's fourth coup in 20 years. "There is always such a thing as divine intervention and I'm counting on that this morning," he told ABC radio. "God works in mysterious ways, and he might be working on it now...I rely a lot on how God works in people and it could well be today is the day for him that God may work through him and pull (him) back from his position." PM Qarase also thought Commodore Bainimarama's deadline could be a bluff. The army was divided by a "very big split" – a factor which could work in the Government's favour and prevent a coup.