Chairman Frank's Pacific Coup

N0274. Two Australian Australian journalists, Graham Davis and Peter Hiscock, comment on their Grubsheet blog about Australia-Fiji-Pacific relations, and how Australia  is missing out in the Pacific.     Click here to the Grubsheet site.

Unchanged Utter Rudd-ish, Free Buses, Subsides for Disabled and Elderly, The EU, Increase Sugar Tonnage Price, USP's Token Disaster Assistance

N0268. RUDD: NO CHANGE IN POSITION OR APPROACHES.  Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd, cited by the Otago Daily Times, said trans-Tasman  diplomacy calling for democracy in Fiji will continue to be vigorous, and that was often a tendency to focus on what  Australian and New Zealand diplomacy should be doing, rather than putting the onus on Commodore Frank Bainimarama's  military regime. Rudd then went on to talk about Bainimarama sacking its entire judiciary, closing down the media, and not holding elections.

"Bainimarama is the one who must change here ... if he is to  adhere to the standards and the norms of the Pacific Islands Forum, the Commonwealth of Nations, [and] the United Nations." He said Australia and New Zealand were "doing a lot" in pushing for freedom of expression in Fiji, and diplomacy would continue to be active. "It will continue to be vigorous in engaging the Fijian regime. We're not in the business of legitimising what has  been a very ugly military coup ... Bainimarama must change, " he said.

 The article went on to report NZ Foreign Minister Mr McCully's comment last month that there had been little progress toward the resumption of democracy in Fiji, and Amnesty International NZ's allegations of "arbitrarily arresting political opponents, and [subjecting] at least 10 people ...to torture and beatings."

[No comment on Rudd's assessment of the situation other than that it has not changed ... and is not working, whatever the rights or wrongs of the situation in Fiji. Skilled diplomats do not repeatedly beat their heads against a brick wall.  They reassess the situation, and try another approach.]  
Cartoon: Shutterstock.
N0269. UP THE CREEK WITHOUT A PADDLE RUDD(ER). Excuse the pun.  To watch the video of yesterday's TVNZ interview with Dr  Rudd, click here, or read the transcript.  The interview starts with the interviewer twice checking Dr Rudd for not answering his question. 

GUYON. I didn't ask you that.
RUDD.  That [the Bainimarama Government] is unacceptable.
GUYON. I didn't ask you that. I asked you whether you had cause to believe that there was a need to change strategy at all.
RUDD. .... We're doing a lot in holding the line ... . will continue to be vigorous in engaging the Fijian regime. We're not in the business of legitimising what has been a very ugly military coup.

 He still hadn't answered the question but the inference is clear: no need for change. Alton Shameem JP, chairman of the Fiji Club of NZ, also had some words to say on Dr Rudd's interview.

N0270. DISABLED GET FREE BUS FARES.  Meanwhile, in Fiji, Government continues with its reforms. Some 3,000 ID cards are being distributed to people over 60, who will get a 50% discount on bus fares, and people with disabilities who will have free fares. Forty year-old Pranay Chand, a frequent traveller, was one of them. “I have been disabled since birth," he said,  "and I feel that government really care about the disabled. At the moment I am  staying in Wainibuku. From there to Suva is $1.60 per trip. Then I pay $2 from Samabula to Saint Giles Hospital for taxis every day. So that is quite a lot."

N0271. COMMENTS ON 'SNIPING FROM THE SIDELINES'.  My posting N0258 in which I said Australian and NZ had influenced others, including the European Union, to put sanctions on Fiji, drew these comments: "Get real Professor! The Europeans can think for themselves."

To which  another reader replied: "If they were thinking for themselves how is it that they have allowed such outrageous compromises in the entire field of women's rights to be permitted throughout the Pacific Region since the Women's Parliamentarians' Conference held in Nadi at the Fiji Mocambo Hotel in March 2000?

"Not a word was said about the almost immediate trampling of women's human rights which took place on 19 May 2000? Women parliamentarians taken hostage and threatened with rape, physical and mental violence for 56 days?

"In lieu of taking stock, the EU apparently went along with Canberra and colluded in corrupted elections in September 2001. Despite our vocal opposition. These elections were subverted, bought by the Agriculture Scam and aided in this subversion by the wiles of Mere Samisoni and colleagues. These colleagues in subversion were remunerated by public money and had set an agenda of racism and plunder.

"And where was the European Union in all this? Hanging  onto the coat-tails of Canberra: they knew best. Well, now we know that they plainly did not. There is much  explaining yet to be done. We are still waiting for this. Sanctions are not an explanation. Sanctions represent further damage to the rights and just aspirations of the population. Impositions of this type are as vile and  undermining as any of the ills they deemed to address. What measure of thought is invested here?"

N0272. INCREASE THE SUGAR TONNAGE PRICE. National Farmers Union national president Surendra Lal said expiring land leases and continuous mill breakdowns have hurt many farmers this year but an increase tonnage price  could "see the ailing sugar industry at least in the Northern Division bounce back to its heydays." Rising costs have also hurt farmers.Blended fertilisers that used to cost  $19.50 have cost close to $40 since 2009. Bearing these and other costs in mind, payments of $80 per tonne of cane meant a loss of $30-$40 per tonne. Lal said farmers wanted to see they got a bigger piece of the pie and that had not been happening. "Farmers are losing confidence in this industry [but] if the pricing can be improved, this industry will bounce back," he said.

N0273. USP WAIVES FEES FOR DISASTER VICTIMS.  Following a candlelight memorial service to remember the victims of the recent disasters in Australia, New Zealand and Japan at USP's Laucala campus in Suva last night, the university announced it will waive 2011 fees and offer scholarships for ten students from these countries who "have lost everything." The service marked the beginning of USP’s campaign, entitled USPHope, to raise funds for the scholarships. Over many years USP, the Pacific's regional university, has received considerable financial assistance from all three countries. The scholarships are tokens of thanks, sympathy and reciprocity.

Rudd Takes His Eye off Pacific Islands

By Jenny Hayward-Jones

Director of The Myer Foundation Melanesia Program at the Lowy Institute. 

In The Australian, 22 March, 2011.The article first appeared on the blog www.lowyinterpreter.org

 N0264.

While Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd has been busy pursuing Australian foreign policy interests in North Africa and managing the consular response to the earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan, he is unlikely to have had time to keep an eye on the neighbourhood.

This is probably not helping to counter perceptions of gradual erosion of Australian diplomatic influence in the Pacific Islands region (despite very generous aid spending and a successful hosting of the Pacific Islands Forum in Cairns in August 2009). Even US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has found time to worry about the Pacific in the past month.

Australian's What Ifs, Christchurch Earthquake, USP's Confucius Institute, Yabaki in NZ, Treason Trail Continues

N0150. AUSTRALIA'S SPINNING JENNY. I suppose it was inevitable that someone would look for parallels between events in Egypt and Fiji and I shouldn't be too surprised that Lowy Institute's Jenny Hayward-Jones has taken the bait.

 She has the good sense to note that the two countries have "little in common" other than the role of the military but then couldn't stop herself from wondering about  the possibility of "a similar popular protest in Fiji." She  went on to wonder why there hasn't been a popular uprising, and then wondered what would have happened if there was.

She doubted the army would "fire on the people" but they could use "intimidatory tactics."  And if the protest persisted, she wondered whether Cde Bainimarama "would attempt to stare the people down and assure them that he, and he alone, can maintain stability in the country and must be allowed time to enact his reforms to build a better Fiji."

This is all wonder-full poppycock and nonsense that displays how little the Lowy Institute's Melanesian expert knows about Fiji but she does provide one interesting insight, and theree's no more wondering:"The Australian Government would find it all but impossible to restrain from encouraging the demands of the Fiji people for democracy." But she offers little light on what Australia might do that it is not already doing. 

How any intelligent, responsible person can possibly think such outpourings are helpful to the Fiji situation at this time defies explanation.  But they will be lapped up anti-government people and splashed all over their blogs.

More importantly, it may also influence those in the Bainimarama government who want to maintain the Public Emergency Regulations (PER) to extend them further.  With an already hypersensitive military-led government reacting too often to any suggestion of opposition, Hayward-Jones's wonderings can only make life more difficult for those seeking to make helpful criticisms and an accelerated agenda leading to constitutional and electoral reforms, and elections no later than 2014. She should wonder on that.  -- Crosbie Walsh.

N0151. CHRISTCHURCH EARTHQUAKE. Fiji has joined other countries in expressing support for NZ in the wake of Christchuch's second devastating earthquake. In letter the NZ Prime Minister John Key, Cde Bainimarama  said he was "shocked and saddened at the loss of precious lives and damage to property caused by the disastrous earthquake that struck Christchurch again. Our hearts go out to the affected people. We share with the Government and the people of New Zealand, the distress and sorrow, in these challenging times.”

“On behalf of the people and the Government of Fiji and on my own behalf, I would like to convey our heartfelt condolence to the bereaved families and all those who have been affected by the terrible natural calamity.”   He has offered Fiji's help in any way NZ thinks appropriate. -- Based on No:0463/MOI.

N0152. ANOTHER CHINA LINK. USP has signed an MOU to establish a Confucius Institute that will teach Mandarin and Chinese culture.  It is expected to be operational by the end of the year.

N0153. CITIZENS' CONSTUTIONAL FORUM CEO Rev Akuila Yabaki was in Wellington and Auckland during the week, when he held talks with interested groups. I hope to publish his paper "Fiji 2011: Critical Engagement and Future Scenarios" soon.

N0154. TREASON TRIAL CONTINUES. This is the link to Wednesday's and Thursday's proceedings. And Friday's. Mutiny leader can't remember.

Australia Only Helping Criminals, March Ban Reviewed, Community Self-Help, Bangladesh & Sigatoka,

AUSTRALIA TOLD ISOLATING FIJI ONLY HELPS CRIMINALS.  Solicitor-General Christopher Pryde told Pacific Islands legal officers meeting in Brisbane last week that  Fiji has rejected Australia’s Framework for Law and Justice Engagement in the Pacific because its policy of isolating Fiji and withholding assistance and co-operation meant that proper attention  could not be given to transnational crimes including money laundering and human trafficking.

He said, “NZ, Australia, and the Forum and Commonwealth Secretariats, in particular, need to review their policies of isolation and non-co-operation with Fiji and work for the common good for the whole of the Pacific region and leave aside their political differences." The isolation policy played into the hands of criminal elements in the Pacific.”

The Solicitor-General was also critical that the three day meeting was chaired exclusively by the Australian Attorney-General’s Department. Other member states were consulted to see whether this was acceptable but Fiji was ignored. The S-G said "This type of behaviour which is typical of Australia is not only childish but unprofessional and disrespectful to Fiji as a Pacific island country.

Other countries in the region may have their differences of opinion with Fiji but they still treat Fiji with common courtesy and respect. Australia needs to take a lesson from other Pacific island countries and act in a way that is appropriate for the region.

Unfortunately, episodes such as these serve to highlight Australia’s difference with countries in the region.” He said “Fiji expects more from a country that sees itself as a leader in the region" adding that "Australia’s attitude is singly unhelpful in dealing with issues such as transnational crime in the Pacific region."

The PILON meeting was attended by 12 Pacific Island states, including Fiji, and a number of observer delegations including the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat and the Commonwealth Secretariat.


THREE REVEALING COMMENTS FROM READERS  ON THE MARCH THAT WASN'T.
Comment One. "As a Fijian, I'd much rather believe in Sai Lealea and Pita Waqatairewa than you. They are true Fijians speaking on behalf of those unable to do so in Fiji as a result of the dictatorial and undemocratic rule of those you're only too happy to be singing their praise..." [Well spoken by a truly "true democrat"!]

Comment Two. "... There's not a single business owner in the Suva CBD who wanted this demonstration to proceed. Because we all know what happens when large numbers of i'taukei hit town with the expressed intention of venting their frustration. Whether they're manipulated or not, the memories of the burning and looting of 2000 are still too raw a decade later to countenance anything like this. It just isn't worth the risk ... The SDL was telegraphing that this was a mass revolt in the making. So it's cancelled, end of story, and only those who wanted to cause trouble will be upset." [It's not the "demonstration" I was concerned about; it was the women's march.]

Comment Three: "Government had no alternative than to cancel the march. It could have turned nasty with women and children around. The last thing needed was a legitimate march railroaded by anti- government supporters who could hide in the crowd and cause trouble. It's better to be cautious. No one wins but at least citizens were safe."

BANGLADESH AT NAKASI. In the mid 1970s the Bangladesh settlement at Nakasi, between Suva and Nausori, was one of the squatter settlements I researched for my doctoral thesis. The name was given because of its extreme poverty and squalid conditions. An upgrading project started in 2002 and recently completed now sees a settlement with on-site sewerage, water, electricity, telephones, a sealed road and fire hydrants. And the squatters are no long squatters but tenants with 99-years of tenancy who will pay ground rent to the Ministry of Lands and rates to the Nausori Town Council. The project is a joint effort of Ministry of Lands and Mineral resources, Nausori Town Council, Bangladesh community and the Ministry of Local Government, Urban Development, Housing and Environment.  Lack of coordination between relevant authorities, the non-involvement of the squatters themselves, and unrealistic standards and conditions, have long impeded site-and-service developments with secure tenure like this. One hopes Bangladesh becomes a model to help solve urban Fiji's burgeoning squatter problem. It represents a win-win situation for all parties. -- Based on 2010, No:2167/MOI.

COST SHARING AT SIGATOKA. Two settlements at Similaya and Tuvamaro community in Sigatoka are also benefiting from state-community cost sharing and self-help.  Once dependent on creek and well water they now have safe drinking water. The communities provided labour and $5,500 and the Department of Multi-Ethnic Affairs contributed $20,000 towards the construction of the two boreholes and water tanks. So far in 2010, Multi-Ethnic Affairs has completed six projects in Sigatoka District costing $51,000. -- Based on 2166/MOI.

Trees, Wadan and the Blogs, Two New PMs, Teachers, Multi-Ethnic Devolution, AusAID, Debts, FNPF, Fiji Water

NEW QUOTE FOR THE WEEK. See right sidebar. Scroll down for Weekend Reading.

TREES, GIFTS FOR THE FUTURE. More than half a million trees have been planted around the country in response to government's “Plant a Million Trees – A Gift for the Future" initiative, and another half a million trees is expected to be planted to ensure the full implementation of the campaign. --  FBCL News.

'NADAN' BLOGGERS THE IMAGINATION. The Blogs FDFM copied by Coup4.5 wrote:

"  Quoting the work of Nadan (sic!) Warsey (sic!) ... the military will have busted its annual budget by $700,000,000 if it's allowed to continue until 2014."

What Wadan actually wrote was: "Roughly, between 2000 and 2010, the military has illegally overspent by $225 million ...If the present trend continues ... the military will have taken  ... some $700 millions over and above their normal pre-2000 allocations between 2000 and 2014."

There are four elements: 1) Wadan's "normal" pre-2000 allocation of $50m a year; 2) the increase in the military budget that started under Qarase, 3) the over-spending that has continued after Qarase, and 4) the expenditure guestimate from now until 2014.

The anti- blogs attributed all the increase and overspending to the Bainimarama government, choosing to ignore the Qarase period from 2000-2006. Their $700m does not mention the pre-2000 "normal" expenditure.  And a less than careful reader could assume the $700m is annual.

Wadan was also a less than honest. He made no allowance for inflation, the 20% devaluation, and the troubled times since 2000, blaming the military, and no one else, for the 2000 and 2006 coups. Of course military expenditure will increase in a country where race is used to create civil unrest that could — and did — threaten other citizens.

He also made no allowance at all for the extended work of the military since 2006  in the administration of the country from district to national level, or the civic work now being done for example by Army engineers. The engineers have always performed civic tasks but the magnitude of the tasks has increased in recent years.  In the last three years, for instance, they have worked on hurricane evacuation centres, school buildings, church repairs, the Fiji School of Nursing,  bridges, river embankments, the Nukulau and Naboro prisons, the Quarantine Station in Rotuma and the Sigatoka Hospital.

In planting his flag so firmly in their camp, Wadan should look very carefully at his new comrades. They only partly understand what he is saying (and misuse what they think they understand); they are likely to want a very different Fiji from the one he wants — and they don't even know his name!

BAINIMARAMA WELCOMES TWO NEW PM's. In his congratulatory letter to the new Vanuatu PM Sato Kilman, the Fiji PM said, 'I am confident that your appointment will provide a new momentum and marks a new impetus in the ever growing close bilateral relations between Fiji and Vanuatu.”   And to new Cook Island PM Henry Puna he said, “With your leadership I believe that the existing warm and friendly relations between our two countries will be further strengthened in the years to come.” A third Pacific nation Tonga is expected to announce its new PM in the next few days.

BOLE THANKS TEACHERS.  School ended for the year on Friday, with Education Minister Filipe Bole extending his "sincere gratitude and heartfelt appreciation to all 9,826 of the country's teachers for their immense contribution to education in Fiji."  The Minister hoped they will enjoy their Christmas break and be refreshed when schools reopen on January 24th. -- Based on 2010, No: 2073 /MOE.

DEPT OF MULTI-ETHNIC AFFAIRS. As announced in the 2011 Budget Address, the functions, staff and assets of the Department are to be "devolved" to relevant line ministries. Public Service Commission permanent secretary, Parmesh Chand, said the proposed devolution "is in line with provisions of Peoples Charter for Change, Peace and Progress to remove ethnic bias in government programmes and [is] also commensurate with reforms in the Public Service to remove duplication, maximise use of resources through rationalisation and bring about improvements in service delivery." -- Based on 2010, No: 2065/MOI. [The general aim is a worthy one but in some matters each of Fiji's ethnic groups needs special attention. It is to be hoped that they will not be lost in the devolution.]

AUSAID IN FIJI. Australia has allocated $F37.2 million to its its volunteer aid programme in Fiji for 2010-2011. There are currently 35 volunteers working in areas such as education, health, disabilities, poverty reduction, protection, climate change/environment and humanitarian emergencies.

DEBT REPAYMENTS. Representatives of overseas funding agencies are in the country to work out a plan with government on extending the time frame of paying back debts left by past governments. government is also negotiating with India to extend the time frame of the repayment of the $86m loan for the upgrade of the sugar mills.

FNPF RETURN $198 MILLION.The Fiji National Provident Fund's fixed income portfolio FYE June 30 was recorded at $198.3m. Earnings from the portfolio make up 87.9% of the Fund's investment portfolio and 90% of the total investment income. Fund CEO Aisake Taito said total investments in government bonds for the financial year were $317.30m, compared with $268.82m in the 2009 year

FIJI WATER: ONE OUT, FIVE IN. I didn't know that Fiji Water had "paid less than $F1 million in total corporate tax since its inception, and received up to $F5 million UNDERLINE a year in value-added tax refunds for its export sales." Hamish Macdonald  tells all in this article in the Sydney Morning Herald. http://www.smh.com.au/world/bainimarama-shows-hes-the-full-bottle-but-challenges-await-20101203-18jvg.html

The Weakness of Australian Foreign Policy

Missing the Messerschmitts:

The Weakness of Australian Foreign Policy

by Dr Scott MacWilliam

Crawford School of Economics and Government

Australian National University

Whenever the current Australian policy toward Fiji’s military regime is questioned, one standard response is along the following lines: unless there is to be permanent military rule, it is necessary to ‘keep up the pressure’ for change. That pressure supposedly is maintaining various forms of sanctions, isolating Fiji from regional forums and always repeating ‘military bad, democracy good’ as the guiding foreign policy principle.

It is time to subject the idea of pressure to serious examination, and what better way to start than with a sporting story.

During the northern summer of 1945, a series of cricket games were held between England and Australia, dubbed the Victory Tests to celebrate the end of WWII in Europe and the Allied triumph. A young Australian who was especially successful in the Test matches was Keith ‘Nugget’ Miller, who still ranks among the best batsmen-bowlers-fielders (all-rounders) to have played the game. Before one of the Tests, Miller, who had been an RAAF fighter pilot during the war, was asked about the pressures of playing cricket. To quote biographer Roland Perry, Miller’s response was: ‘I’ll tell you what pressure is. Pressure is a Messerschmitt [a very advanced German fighter-plane] up your arse. Cricket is not.’

Current Australian government policies and practices toward Fiji bear the same relationship to pressure on the military regime as did cricket on Miller.

Exerting popular pressure is in important respects ruled out by the very nature of a military regime: the members of the RFMF are not elected nor in any parliamentary sense representative. The senior officers are not members of political parties affiliated either formally or informally with Australian or New Zealand parties. Now that all three major newspapers in Fiji are owned locally, the outlets for Australian propaganda which could bolster popular opposition to the regime must come from sources overseas and thus have limited local reach. There is little pressure for change from this direction.

As has been demonstrated over the past four years, economic sanctions have limited effect too. Officers are by and large not dependent upon commercial success for their livelihoods, as might be senior soldiers in some other countries. Squeezing local commerce by punitive measures could be expected to have few direct consequences for soldiers’ incomes. While travel bans are irksome for some existing officers with connections to Australia and New Zealand, the next generation will be more familiar with Malaysia, India and China, countries where they have been trained and where Australia’s capacity to influence government policies regarding the military regime in Fiji is limited.

Where measures to affect the wider economy are concerned, the regime is also proving especially adroit in gaining support from some important local business people, while taking punitive action against others who oppose their policies. The transfer of ownership of News Ltd assets is a brilliant example of rewarding supporters while punishing opponents. Even to ask if Australian pressure assisted News Limited’s survival in Fiji is to emphasise the insignificance of any support which may have been rendered to Rupert Murdoch, the former Dirty Digger, now Wall Street Wallah.

The regime’s nationalist instincts also are starting to have some attraction for businesses aiming at areas where import substitution can take place, even if the more ideologically rigid economists continue to oppose policies favouring this direction. The growing proliferation of countries with whom Fiji is dealing commercially and for aid is illustrated by the most recent news that Turkey is considering providing assistance with a long-awaited hydro-electricity project in Buca, Cakaudrove. Today, October 21 an important Chinese delegation from the International Poverty Reduction Centre in China (IPRCC) arrives in Fiji. The Fiji Muslim League has announced that they will use their traditional connections with other Muslim countries, including Indonesia and Malaysia, to help secure aid for Fiji. Nothing more needs to be said about the failure of Australian policy to discourage tourists who are invariably more concerned with prices and personal safety than electoral democracy.

Although there is some wisdom in maintaining a range of aid projects, their existence does not constitute pressure against the military regime either. Indeed these can as easily be read as hypocrisy, even a further instance of neo-colonialism. Australia trying to pick and choose the form of contacts on a wink-wink, nudge-nudge basis with government officials hardly indicates consistency, especially when it is the military regime with which Australian aid officials are dealing, either directly or through proxies. Is there anyone, apart from Australian politicians and diplomats, who thinks that the continuation of aid doesn’t represent a formal recognition of the military regime’s authority? When military officers hold senior posts in so many government departments the recognition becomes personalised as well.

Last but not least given the military comparison employed by Keith Miller, the regime is not under threat of foreign invasion, particularly after former Australian defence minister Kim ‘Bomber’ Beazley Jnr’s departure for Washington and the unforgettable helicopter crash off Fiji. While some academic and other opponents of the regime have hoped for a domestic revolt supported by Australia (and New Zealand) against the current military regime, this is unlikely and could even be counter-productive for democratisation. Advocates of the ‘keep up the pressure’ direction now freely admit that they can not see any likely challenger to PM Frank Bainimarama. A revolt in the army leading to civil war is recognised by serious analysts as unlikely to advance the cause of democratic reform either.

An official explanation of and justification for the ‘keep up the pressure’ basis for Australia’s foreign policy toward the regime in Fiji is warranted. A parliamentary statement by the Minister for Foreign Affairs along these lines is overdue. In the absence of any detailed and convincing defence of this policy direction, including an outline of its achievements so far, the obvious conclusion seems to be that Australia has no Messerschmitts in its foreign policy armoury. Perhaps it is time to explicitly acknowledge the inability to exert any meaningful pressure and try other ways of changing outcomes over the next few years in Fiji.

Australia, Fiji & China? What After the Military? Tuilaepa's Tsunami Dollars?

Australia Driving Fiji into China's Arms 

by Richard Herr*

Canberra should lose no time in repairing relations with Suva.

Fiji celebrated the 40th anniversary of its independence from Britain last week. Sitting under the protection of a pavilion, Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, ministers and the diplomatic corps were untroubled by the teeming rain that soaked the parading troops and schoolchildren who provided the spectacle for the occasion.

But not all the storm clouds were over Suva's Albert Park that day. Australia's high commissioner was missing from the diplomatic reserved seats, a casualty of tit-for-tat expulsions in the course of the troubled relationship between Canberra and Suva since the December 2006 military coup.

Adding an edge to Australia's diplomatic absence, for those who read the commemorative program, was the logo of the embassy of the People's Republic of China. It was the only state listed as an official sponsor.

The entire planet is making some adjustment to China's emergence as a rising global power. But Australia's four-year attempt to isolate and penalise the government of Bainimarama has pushed Fiji more quickly and fully into Beijing's arms. Arms has a double meaning here; Fiji's President Ratu Epeli Nailatikau has just returned from a state visit to China, where he visited a major arms manufacturing plant.The military sanctions imposed on Fiji by its traditional friends (Australia, New Zealand, Britain and the US) have left Fiji's military with few options for resupply or modernisation. Speculation is rife in Suva that Fiji will soon decide to procure Chinese sourced armaments. This would likely be a long-term commitment to the Chinese supply chain.

The Bainimarama government also has a significant military personnel training offer from China. There's every chance that a substantial commitment could soon be made to a five-year cadet officer training program that would at least equal the pre-2006 levels for Australia, New Zealand and Britain combined.

These developments are a direct result of some of the ill-advised sanctions against Fiji, rather than any efforts by China to discredit Fiji's ties with Australia. The affection that built up over the years between Australian officers and Fiji's military has been lost.

Senior Fiji officers regret that the brothers-in-arms status that they once enjoyed with their Australian counterparts isn't available and won't be offered to their junior officers.

Our closest Western allies in the region, the US and France, haven't gone as far down the military sanctions path as has Australia and have maintained routine contact with Fiji's armed forces.

Our leading Asian allies, Japan and South Korea, have undermined travel sanctions by allowing all personnel banned by Australia to travel abroad via their countries. In the process, they have reinforced Fiji's "look north" policy to cultivate new partners to offset the estrangement from its traditional friends.

At a recent meeting at the UN with Fiji's Foreign Minister Ratu Inoke Kubuabola, Hillary Clinton, recognised the 2014 date for elections in Fiji is unlikely to change.The US Secretary of State offered to assist Fiji in returning to parliamentary democracy by that date.

Despite its doubts, Australia shouldn't wait until 2014 to test the sincerity of Fiji's commitment to elections. That would only make Bainimarama's government feel it has succeeded despite Australia, and not because of Fiji's relationship with an old friend.

Last week's national day celebrations in Suva may have heralded a new focus for Fiji's independence, not from Britain but from Australia.If this trend is to be reversed, both sides should talk urgently.

* Richard Herr is the author of 'Time for a Fresh Approach: Australia and Fiji Relations Post-abrogation', Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Anthony Bergin is the research director at ASPI. These are their personal views.

What After the Military?

Scott MacWilliam's comment on the post 

"The Times They Are A Changin'":

The possibility that a military regime may be the precursor to a liberal democratic government is not as exceptional as some may think. Consider the history of England after Cromwell, France after Bonaparte, the USA after the military victory of the north over the south in the civil war, Germany after Bismarck and then again after the Allied Occupation in 1945, Japan after the Allied Occupation also at the end of WWII, South Korea during the Third, Fourth and Fifth Republics-the list goes on including more recently into Africa and Latin America.In many liberal democratic countries, the military's presence is invariably just beneath the surface, used to quell strikes, demonstrations, etc.

Nothing is predetermined in the relationship between military and civilian rule, despite what those who are romantically inclined care to think.  Fiji will be the same, which is why what steps are taken over the next few years to secure a transition to a more substantial democratic civilian government are so important.

TUILAEPA QUESTIONED. The Samoan Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister can call me what they like, they can imply Claudine Maclean and I are cynical and ignorant palagi, but shooting the messenger does not alter the fact that neither the government's own figures, nor what I saw and heard on the coast, go anywhere near towards answering the simple question we came to Samoa to ask: where has the money gone?  -- NZ journalist Campbell Live on the unaccounted for WST$100,000,000 given for tsunami relief. Samoa Observer, Oct. 6, 2010. [Which raises questions about Tuilaepa's  finger-pointing at Fiji.]

WHY THE CRIME RATE IS RISING BUT FALLING.Jone Kalouniviti comments on the changing nature of crime.  and indirectly on how statistics can be misleading if like is not compared with like.

Sydney Fiji Democracy and Freedom Movement Rally

FDFM RALLY SATURDAY 2 OCT. SYDNEY. Posted by Sevu Waqa on the The Fiji Democracy and Freedom Movement website:

Police & All Senior Appointments, Rudd Again, Mill.Dev.Goals, Suva's Electric Cars

TO COMMENTATORS. In addition to using your real name or a pseudonym, you also need to say something.  Sarcastic, snarky and other comments along the lines of 'I love Bainimarama' or 'I hate Bainimarama' merely convey a position; nothing new is said and the comment is not worth publishing.  They are like an argument between eight year olds: 'Tis', says one; 'Tisn't,' says the other.

NAIVALURUA's GOOD BUT ... A reader writes on the recent Police Commissioner appointment: "Iowane Naivalurua is certainly a very competent chap who has done admirable work at the prisons. However, from past experience with Savua and more recently with Teleni, the one significant way to demoralise and undermine police morale and to politicize the police is to bring in non-professionally qualified and experienced individuals from outside the police force. The sooner the police are able to attract better quality officers and the sooner a couple of them are identified as potential commissioners and trained for leadership at the highest level the better. There are experienced men and women in the police force who are not tainted by politicization, nepotism, racism and bigotry who are worthy of the senior-most positions in this critical agency.

"It might be that Iowane was being nice to Teleni but I can’t see any ‘good foundation’ set by his predecessor [with his] Christian crusades ... declaring towns and cities ‘crime free’[when] crime was alive and well in all such localities. In the agricultural hinterlands, thefts of crops, poultry and livestock have been a major disincentive for farmers.

"It is vital that Naivalarua attends to police morale and professionalism immediately. These have been severely eroded under Teleni. Attention needs to be primarily focused on police work, knowing the law and rights of citizens,law enforcement, investigation and evidence gathering (including forensic work), report writing, and effective prosecution. Training in these areas is vital. Police work generally and community policing requires good people skills and PR. It should also be noted that the police can now recruit much better educated personnel than ever before. Such recruitment has to be merit-based with some awareness of proportionality in terms of representing Fiji’s multi-ethnic citizenry."

Ed.Note. These comments follow the general line advocated in this blog: Government -- from Cabinet to departmental heads, personal secretaries and other comparable positions --  needs to include a much higher proportion of trained, experienced civilians from different ethnic backgrounds. The military, for the moment, still has an important role to play in civic affairs but the mix in advisory and decision-making positions is not yet right.

FIJI IN FOR A RUDDY TIME. In a review of Australia's likely Pacific policies since the election and Kevin Rudd's appointment as Foreign Minister, Jenny Hayward-Jones* writes:  "The bad news for those hoping for a fresh approach is that there is unlikely to be any shift in policy towards Fiji.

"As Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd was responsible for driving Australia's highly principled stand against the unelected government of Frank Bainimarama. As Foreign Minister, he is unlikely to want to oversee any softening of that policy, lest it cause him to appear weak. Perhaps the best approach at the outset would be for Rudd to establish a short review of Australian policy towards Fiji, which would enable him to re-assess and give him some space to move. Just a thought." 
* Director of The Myer Foundation Melanesia Program at the Lowy Institute.

THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS. Ten years ago officials from 189 countries took part in a meeting at the United Nations in New York and made a promise to achieve eight goals to make the world a better place by 2015.

The MDGs include freedom from extreme poverty and hunger, quality education, decent employment, good health and shelter, the right of women to give birth without risking their lives, environmental sustainability and gender equality.

This month's Review Summit shows Fiji to have made considerable progress on MDG 2, universal education. Actions taken by Government include providing free bus fares to low income families, free tuition and free textbooks. Children in 490 of the country's 600 primary schools have already received this
assistance, and its $7.4m family assistance allowance, and $30 food voucher programme for poor families, will benefit around 200,000 people.

Work is also progressing on the MDG 5 of improving maternal health by 2015. Actions take so far by Government and the White Ribbon Safe Motherhood Initiative, that aim to cut maternal deaths by 75%, includes family planning and safe sex, and pregnancy advice.

Government actions in other MDG areas - poverty reduction, employment, shelter, gender equality and environmental sustainability - have been widely covered by this blog. Readers will have observed the similarity between the UN's MDG's and those of the People's Charter and the Government's Roadmap goals.


GOOD FOR A LAUGH. I had to read it twice to believe it.  A keynote speaker at USP last week, a Kiwi with "Hawai'ian blood ties" presumably in Fiji for the first time, chose to give advice on fast food, electric cars, and the export potential of villagers' produce at the Suva market. Europe, apparently, is a potential export market for such produce, said organic food advocate Dr Cathie Koa Dunsford, before going to say that Fiji could be a food basket of the world through the production of sustainable organic food.

Dr Dunsford said she'd travelled the world extensively but had never met polluted air as bad as what she had inhaled in Fiji’s capital city of Suva. “I couldn’t breathe. I have never been to a place where the air is so polluted like Suva  ... A long-term solution would be the use of electric cars in Fiji."

Scroll down to today's earlier post.

OzNZ Hamper Progress, Oz Election, China Cement, Lau Targets, Mismanagement, Corruption, Levuka Bid, Sugar & Inflation Down,

CHIEF JUSTICE CRITICISES OZ, NZ.  Fiji has made some ground in restoring their sacked judiciary, but Australia and New Zealand have slowed the process down, Fiji's Chief Justice Anthony Gates says.

Gates said there had been "satisfactory restoration" in Fiji since self-appointed Prime Minster Commodore Frank Bainimarama sacked the judiciary in 2009, the FijiVillage website reported. "There are no magic wands available for this process however," Gates said in Suva on Monday."Australia and New Zealand have hampered our progress in restoring the judiciary at all levels.In the world, this assault on, and interference with, a neighbouring states judiciary is unprecedented." --Sydney Morning Herald/AAP/Pacific Media Watch.


I WOULDN'T PUT MY MONEY ON IT. Commenting on Australia's election outcome, the PS of Information Sharon Smith Johns said, “One clear signal that came out from the voters was that they were frustrated by the Labor Party’s policies and it is obvious that Labor will now have to change its stance on Fiji with regards to its foreign policy which has been a total failure. However, an Abbott-led Government shows promising signs of re-engaging in serious dialogue with Fiji. Fiji is hopeful of working with an Abbott led Government that understands the situation in Fiji." I wouldn't put my money on it.

TWO CEMENT FACTORIES, one in Labasa, the other in Suva, will be established next year when two Chinese cement companies to set up operations.

LAU RACING AGAINST TIME.Provincial Council Adminsitrator Meleki Bainimarama  said government is racing against time to achieve the Lau annual corporate plan target and reminded government officials to improve service delivery so that the target is achieved by 2012, as required in the Road Map. He called on the people of Lau to work with the government and try to achieve the target on economical development by 2012 before we focus on politics and election in 2014.

ANOTHER AUDIT SHOWS MISMANAGEMENT. Following complaints from pine landowners, an
independent audit on Fiji Pine Trust was called by Fiji Pine Ltd Chairman Ratu Tevita Uluilakeba Mara.  The just released report reveals serious cases of misuse, unethical business practices and mismanagement of Trust funds and property by senior executives. The report has been forwarded to the Permanent Secretary of Ministry of Fisheries and Forests and a decision on the management of the trust is expected lagter this week.

SUSPICIOUS BUSINESS DEALINGS.The Fiji Financial Intelligence Unit  recorded 750 suspicious transactions and reports in 2009. The FIU disseminated 190 intelligence reports to law enforcement agencies for further investigation of possible money laundering and other serious offences. Further cases have been reported since along with over 140 cases of possible tax evasion and tax fraud. FIU maintains over 500,000 financial transactions in its database.

LEVUKA BID. Levuka's bid to be classified as a World Heritage site is well covered in this  EastWestCenter report.

THE RESERVE BANK GOVERNOR  says sugar production will "decline significantly this year" due largely to very low rainfall and continuing mill problems, but better news shows that there's been a  "significant slowdown in inflation with the rate falling to 5.4% in July after peaking at 10.5% in April."

PLEASE USE & CONTRIBUTE, SUPPORT & SHARE. (1) USE by Commenting (below), and visiting Na Sala Cava (right side bar); (2) SUPPORT, anonymously or openly, with "Subscribe" or by joining  "Followers" (left side bar); and (3) SHARE this posting with others. Just hover your mouse on the share buttons, click Email, Blog this!, Twitter, Facebook or Google Buzz.  Vinaka. 

Charter Points the Way, Aussies on Fiji, Chinese Investment, Tuvalu Studies PSC, Unemployed Training

CHARTER POINTS THE WAY. National People's Charter Advisory Council Chairman Josefa Serulagilagi stressed that, while there is progress, the eleven pillars of the charter need to been seen incorporated in the running of government and the lives of the people. He was speaking this morning at the  fifth meeting of the Charter Advisory Council. He also expressed concerns that some government ministries and departments are acting like politicians and looking after their own agenda and interest and not focusing on the task at hand.


PINE HARVESTS SHOULD REDUCE BUILDING COSTS. Fiji Pine Board member Ratu Jolame Lewanavanua said that harvesting of the pine plantations in Gau, Kadavu, Lau as well as other areas commences in two weeks' time should mean cheaper timber prices for the local market.This is in line with Government's plan to provide current and new home owners affordable options.

AUSSIE OPPOSITION WOULD   open negotiations with Fiji's military ruler Frank Bainimarama for electoral reform as a way of breaking the current diplomatic standoff between Suva. If this means they will respond to Fiji's requests for legal, technical and financial assistance, great;  but if they are still talking about dates, what's new?

Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith said there are three priorities when it comes to Fiji.

(1) "To continue to keep pressure on Fiji both bilaterally and through international institutions like the Commonwealth;"(2)"We don't want to do things to hurt the people of Fiji, which is why we don't have trade sanctions and bans.(3) "Thirdly, and most importantly, we do need to continue in conjunction with the international and regional community to find some way of opening up an effective dialogue with the Commodore to return Fiji to democracy." In other world they will continue to pursue the policy that has proved so successful over the past four years.

Meanwhile, Lowy Institute's Jenny Hayward-Jones thinks Australian-Fiji relations have deteriorated. “Other Pacific countries want to talk to Fiji, and Australia and New Zealand are the only ones maintaining this 'don't talk' policy,” she said.

CHINESE COMPANY CONFIRMED.Speaking from China, the  the PM said Tengy Group is ready to start cement manufacturing operations in Fiji immediately. The company has also been invited to set up wind farms to generate power for the country and at the same time register a company in Fiji. The PM returns to Fiji tomorrow Friday.
     
TUVALU STUDIES FIJI REFORMS. A three member delegation from Tuvalu’s PSC is in Fiji to obtain information on the operations and workings of Fiji PSC, and identify ways on how the two governments can work together in improving efficiencies and work practices in their respective public services.The team returns to Tuvalu next week.

UNEMPLOYED START TRAINING. More than six hundred unemployed  have started a programME the government  is calling "life long skills training". It is part of the National Employment Centre's Decree Initiative which forces unemployed people over 15 years of age to undergo this training or face a fine of up to $500.

Tonga Talks Sense, Downer Talks. Bainimarama on Forum; Rarawai Mill

Dr Feleti Sevele

LISTEN TO RADIO NZ NATIONAL AT 7:20 TONIGHT. PANEL DISCUSSION ON FIJI. http://www.radionz.co.nz/ 

VOICE OF REASON: TONGA WANTS DIALOGUE. In an interview with ABC's Bruce Hill acting as devil's advocate, Tongan PM Dr Feleti Sevele made these important comments:

• Engaging in dialogue was the best way of genuine progress to democracy in Fiji; 
• The Forum wants dialogue; 
• Dialogue does not legitimise the Fiji regime; 
• " The future of Fiji in terms of its government, in terms of its development, of its democracy, is something for the people of Fiji to resolve, not for us from outside of Fiji to determine how we would assist; 
• We would certainly like Fiji to come back and be part of the international community or the Forum according to the governor's rules and policies of the forum.
• "The forum wants to keep the lines of dialogue open and this is also said by Australia and New Zealand. We all believe that. If they need assistance, we should be willing to consider that.
• The alternative is to have no communication with Fiji and I don't think that is a wise course of action in the long run."

SMITH TO ATTEND VILA FORUM. This is good news if it means Australia is taking the Pacific seriously. Panelists at a recent  Lowry Institute meeting chaired by Sean Dorney thought it was not. It is good news if Australia's Foreign Minister heeds Sevele's advice, but it is not good news if Smith does not accept the urgent need for re engagement and new approaches to resolve the Fiji impasse.

And it is very bad news if he adopts the strident policies now advocated by his predecessor Alex Downey who seems obsessed with Australia's  "sphere of influence" and the obligations it brings. "If anything goes wrong in the region, there is an expectation from the outside world that Australia will fix it."

DOWNER's DELUSIONS  OF GRANDEUR: "...this is a test of strength for Australia. To be a really effective country, we have to be able to exercise control over the security environment in our own backyard. If we can't, then the world will mark us down and our status will be diminished. Our influence will decline and our credibility as a leading proponent of good governance and stable and orderly societies will be severely damaged. At the moment, we are looking decidedly weak over the question of Fiji." 

What then follows is a jumbled history of this troublesome nation: Australia's efforts to rebuild democracy; the eccentric commander of its military force; the coups due to ethnic tensions;  the 2006 coup that "was very personal" and had nothing to do with ending corruption. Bainimarama's "real motive ...was being investigated by the police for his alleged role in the murder of two Fijian soldiers at the time of the coup in 2000."   Where have we heard that before?

SO WHAT DOES DOWNER ADVOCATE?  "Find policies which will encourage Fijians to force their dictator out of office; ... use its relationships with other South Pacific governments to ramp up the pressure...announce "retaliatory measures (for Sarah Robert's expulsion); lobby other South Pacific countries to take steps to put substantial pressure on the Fiji government; enlist other countries in the region to join Australia's sanctions against Fiji, deny any members of the regime any access to countries in the South Pacific.

"The message the Australian Government is sending out to the international community is a simple one: Australia does not have the diplomatic power to do anything about the situation in Fiji.

"That is a disaster. It is not only bad news for the ordinary people of Fiji who are suffering because of the illegal dictatorship which rules them, but it demonstrates Australia is not able to control the environment within its own sphere of influence. That makes Australia look weak and irrelevant."

If this how a nation defines itself, and I were an Australian, I would be ashamed.

FIJI DEFINITELY NOT TRYING TO UNDERMINE FORUM. Bainimarama said accusations by Australia and New Zealand that Fiji was undermining the Forum with the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) Plus and then the Engaging Pacific Leaders meeting, was wrong. He said Fiji was more concerned about discussing its future and path back to democracy with regional leaders.

"There was no intention to undermine the Forum. If that is the way Australia saw it, then they are wrong, like they've been wrong from the start about what we doing in Fiji. What we are trying to do is get a Forum together so that we can tell Pacific island leaders what's happening in Fiji and how we intend to deal with it, leading up to elections in 2014."

SUGAR DADDY NEEDED. The  possible closure of the Rarawai Sugar Mill in Ba, which stopped crushing three weeks ago due to its 31 year-old boiler being unable to generate enough steam, provides yet another example of how close to terminal the industry could be.

If Fiji's international friends really care about the long-term economy and daily livelihoods of ordinary people in Fiji, and not just the restricted freedoms of some members of its middle class, they would be helping to marshal international technical and financial assistance from the Commonwealth and EU.

Leaving this until Fiji bows to their unrealistic demands for an immediate "return" to democracy may be more than a whisker too late. Sugar used to be Fiji's major industry, directly employing thousands of people,with downstream effects on  local urban economies in the West and North. If  NZ politicians won't show more understanding of Fiji's situation, they should emigrate to Australia and, as we half-jokingly claim about our emigration losses, help raise the intelligence of both countries.

Aussie Modesty, Pacific Understanding, Ethnic Fijian Generosity, Public Service Outreach

PACIFIC AN AUSTRALIAN LAKE?  At the height of the Cold War some American referred to the Pacific as an American lake.  Now Australians seem to be doing the same.

In an otherwise informative background article on the Forum meeting to be held in Vila this week, a meeting at which both the Australian PM and Foreign Minister will be absent due to the forthcoming election, The Australian reveals as much or more about how Australia sees itself as it does about how Australia sees the Pacific. The image is certainly not suggestive of an equal relationship. Here are some examples:

Australia's bigger friends and allies, especially the US, take Canberra's lead to manage troublesome issues in the islands and to help guide them to prosperity. [Carving up the world may make for good geopolitics, but "management" and "guidance" is what parents provide to children.  Powerful as Australia may be, they are dealing with sovereign nations, not children.]

Former foreign minister Alexander Downer stressed last week that it is our natural sphere of influence. Or it could be, if we paid it more attention. [The article urged greater involvement, and knowledge of the Pacific.]

...no other industrialised country has the Third World on its doorstep in the way the Pacific is on ours. Europe's former colonies are remote by comparison. [Actually, Paris to Algeria is only a little further than Darwin to Port Moresby and London to Lagos not much further than Sydney to Apia. And that's not to mention US proximity to Mexico, the Caribbean and Latin America.]

For Australia's policy aims to prevail, it will now need to rely on leadership at the forum summit to come from leaders broadly aligned with Canberra's regional perspective, chiefly New Zealand's Prime Minister John Key and Samoan Prime Minister Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi, who is angling for forum institutions to be shifted to Samoa from suspended Fiji. [It is hoped they do not let big brother down.]

NATADOLA AGAIN. Fiji Live reports nothing new on what Pacific Island Leaders thought and said at last week's Natadola meeting but it provided a useful summary.  They supported the Strategic Framework for Change and Roadmap to Democracy and elections in 2014. They were apparently impressed with progress on reforms and initiatives, especially on corruption, rural development, poverty alleviation, education and governance) and noted that nation-building is not a simple process but one that requires a concerted amount of commitment and will to obtain the desired changes that will benefit all communities. They also expressed support for continued engagement, noting that they share similar problems.

INCREDIBLE BUT TRUE. Adi Elisapeci Samununu Waqanivalu of the Wellington Council of Fiji Communities  says Fiji's ethnic policy is robbing its indigenous people of their rights. She was not referring to being dispossessed of land, language, beliefs or cultural heritage but to having to share the name 'Fijian' with other citizens from different racial and ethnic backgrounds.  The one-name-for-all is an attempt by Government to give all citizens a sense of belonging and equality before the law. Indigenous Fijians, usually, but not in this case, well known for their generosity of spirit, will henceforth be officially known as i-taukei, an indigenous name (which Fijian is not)  they have often used for themselves.

The Council intends to canvas the views on ethnic identity of all Fiji people living in New Zealand before it takes a human rights action over the issue. “It’s almost like, I now live in New Zealand, can I call myself a Maori?" said Adi Elisapeci,  "And see how much I can insult a Maori by doing that? You know all of a sudden we’ve been sort of shafted and say ’Move over, I’m also called this’, without consultation.”

The Council, formed in April this year, comprises ethnic Fijians, and  is closely linked to two Wellington-based anti-government blogsites.

My guess is that Maori would be quite happy to give up or share their name for the bounties that ethnic Fijians in Fiji still possess. In fact, like Fijians, Maori had no common name before the advent of Europeans. The story goes that when asked who they were, they answered, "Maori,"  ordinary people, implying that it was the strangers who were not ordinary. Sharing a name is surely not too high a price to pay for removing the alienation felt by many Fiji citizens who are not ethnic Fijians. 

MINISTRY OF ITAUKEI. The Ministry of Fijian Affairs is now officially known as the Ministry of Itaukei.The Ministry of Itaukei will continue to ensure that the Government will develop, maintain and promote policies that will provide for the continued good governance and welfare of the iTaukei now and into the future.

The legal framework within which the Ministry operates remains the same in terms of covering the Itaukei Affairs Act and Regulations, the Native Lands & Fisheries Commission Act, and the Native Lands Act. -- based on 2010 No:1137/MOI.

DOING THE ROUNDS.The routine monthly meetings of permanent secretaries are now being held at different "front line" venues to assist the public service "reach out and learn about work activities and issues of important State Institutions." PS of the PSA Parmesh Chand said “It helps us to understand individually and collectively what the issues are and how best we can work together to effectively address them as a Team.” The PS's heard presentations on Fiji’s Productivity Report and the Impact of the 2010 Revised Budget on operating expenditure of Government.  The July meeting was held at St. Giles Mental Health Hospital and previous ones at the Prison and Correctional Facilities at Naboro and at a Ministry of Fisheries and Forests Tree Planting exercise. -- based on 2010 No:1139/PSC.

Fiji, the Pacific Islands and Australia

AUSTRALIA OUTPLAYS SUPREMO. I thought I'd misread this heading, but no, this is how the blog Coupfourpointfive  reports a "Media in the Pacific"  article by Graeme Dobell.*  Dobell seems to think that because Vanuatu PM Natapei deferred the MSG meeting,  and I quote, "Australia can point to mounting evidence that it is closer to the rest of the South Pacific than Fiji." Dream on!

The leaders of ten PI nations, the Director of PiPP, FTUC leader Daniel Urai and even Major-General Rabuka do not think so. That leaves Dobell, Usaia Waqatairewa (see below)  and presumably the publishers of Coupfourpointfive.

*Dobell is Radio Australia's Associate Editor for Asia Pacific, and a regular contributor to the Lowry Institute's The Interpreter. Radio Australia is owned by the Australian Government. The Lowry Institute calls itself an "independent international policy think tank." Its directors comprise four members of the wealthy Lowry family (Westfield shopping centres), former ambassadors, bankers and businessmen.

TEN PACIFIC COUNTRIES CONFIRMED. The President of  Kiribati  and the Prime Ministers of Papua New Guinea, Solomon, and Tuvalu will attend as well as seven other Island states. Vanuatu has confirmed they will be attending and will be  represented by  either the Deputy Prime Minister or the Foreign Affairs Minister.

The attendance of PMs Sir Michael Somare and Derek Sikua deserves special mention. Sir Michael is facing a no confidence motion and Dr Sikua is in the middle of an election campaign. Ratu Inoke said this demonstrates the support that Fiji has throughout the Pacific, through our strong history of working together in our own Pacific style, like ‘Talanoa sessions”. 

“This shows real strength of the Pacific Islands which is our solidarity  and unity for the security, peace, progress of our Pacific People” Ratu Inoke stressed.

During the meeting the Prime Minister, Commodore Bainimarama will brief the Island Leaders on the progress of Fiji’s Roadmap for Democracy and Strategic Framework for Change. The meeting is for two days, next Thursday and Friday.

USAIA WANTS MURDOCH HELP. Usaia Waqatairewa, the Sydney-based president of the Fiji Democracy and Freedom Movement is openly appealing to Pacific Islands Forum leaders not to attend the meeting "because it is the desperate action of an out of touch pariah dictatorship" and has called on Rupert Murdoch's News Ltd to help him set up an anti-government pirate station within Fiji. His appeal is reported in Rupert Murdoch's News Ltd The Australian.[More on this tomorrow.]


FTUC CALLS FOR CHANGED AUSSIE ATTITUDE. The Fiji Trades Union Congress is calling on Australia to change their political attitude against Fiji - if they are interested in seeing Fiji go back to full democracy and hold elections by 2014. FTUC national president Daniel Urai says Fiji will certainly need assistance from Australia to hold general elections, as it has in the past.

He says it is unfortunate that members of the Melanesian Spearhead Group are finding it difficult to attend the meeting in Fiji due to continued pressure by Australia and New Zealand who are using bully tactics against the smaller island nations.  Urai says they don’t want Australia and New Zealand using cheque book and bullying tactics to try and push Pacific island countries to do what they want.

RABUKA SAYS RELATIONS NEVER BEEN THIS BAD. Former Fijian prime minister Major-General Sitiveni Rabuka has criticised Australia's ongoing travel bans on Fiji's military. Last month, two key Fijian rugby players were banned from entering Australia to play the Wallabies in Canberra. Rabuka said the bans are making Fijians feel as if they are under siege."We see it as a sanction against the people of Fiji and the Fiji national team and it's pushing us into a consolidated position against Australia or against those are bringing up these kind of sanctions against us," he said.

PiPP CALLS HEADS AND TAILS. Derek Brien, Exec. Director of Vanuatu-based Pacific Institute of Public Policy plays it both ways. On the one hand he says, "Ultimately Fiji's suspension from the Forum may not have helped regional efforts to engage with Fiji's regime on returning to democracy." On the other hand, he says,  "But Fiji has done itself no favours by its own actions, for example by trying to arrange this MSG-PLUS, effectively an attempt to undermine the Forum or to side-step the Forum." Right.

But the suspension did come before the reaction. And if he is also right in predicting the Engaging Fiji meeting "is threatening to overshadow next month's Forum leaders summit in Vanuatu" who should we blame for this? Why doesn't he just say, "We (Australia and NZ) got it wrong. A "Public Policy" change is needed here, fellers."

A Response to Dr Michael O'Keefe

Dr Michael 0'Keefe of La Trobe University has come out of the woodwork rather too late for anything commendable to be said of him. Stating the obvious is not necessarily smart. He fails to gauge with accuracy the situation on the ground in Fiji. People have died in Fiji and out of Fiji due to Australia's misguided policy towards Fijians. No one who has a health condition in Fiji will thank Australia or New Zealand for their dilemma or their imposed choice. Instead, a number of people known personally to me have died for a lack of prompt assistance and no obvious alternative. Hot footing it to India is hardly a helpful choice if one is dying of Cancer of the Colon? The experience of the past ten years in Fiji under the tutelage (is that what it is???) of Australia's Foreign Policy is so revealing that we do not require Australian-based academics to add to our understanding of what has signally failed: Australian politicians and their Think Tanks of whatever political persuasion.

There is absolutely no point in trying to pick up the pieces now of your ridiculous and compromised foreign policy. The inadequately trained diplomats sent to the Islands of the South Pacific over too many years have made you more than a laughing stock: Pariah of the Pacific might be more appropriate. You think that is extreme? Then look at the consequences of your actions on the ground. No amount of sugared pills in Aid will ever erase those or bring back all those who died unnecessarily and are dying in Fiji and adjacent islands now.   --- Daucina Dina.   [For other responses, see 'Comments'. -- Ed.]

Switch off the Autopilot in the Pacific

Canberra's stance on the Fiji crisis requires an urgent rethink

Michael O'Keefe in the Sydney Morning Herald 

July 16, 2010

The easy option is to ramp up the rhetoric without much changing sanctions against the regime of Frank Bainimarama, the naval officer who seized power four years ago in a bloodless coup. This would be predictable and lazy. To escalate the sanctions is an option, but one that both John Howard and Kevin Rudd eschewed when faced by similar belligerent actions from Suva. The unstated option is to end or dramatically modify sanctions - and this should not be taken away from the table.

MSG in Trouble, the Sarah Roberts Expulsion, and Diplomats' DOs and DON'Ts

THE END OF THE MSG? Fiji  has urged Vanuatu PM and MSG chairman Edward Natapei to urgently consider Prime Minister Bainimarama’s suggestion on 8 July to convene as early as next week a “Special Meeting of MSG Leaders” to resolve the Chairmanship issue. The government statement says this is an important issue for the MSG region and it is important that Natapei does not delay its discussion unnecessarily. Without this it seems highly unlike there will be a MSG meeting until 2014, and by then it may be redundant.

PM Bainimarama says without Fiji’s participation, the MSG will not be able to convene as a group. "Everyone should give Vanuatu Prime Minister Edward Natapei a pat in the back for destroying the MSG and bowing to Australia’s wishes. " He said Natapei’s decision to defer at the 11th hour was disappointing as preparations were at their advanced stage.Bainimarama says Fiji does not want to be part of a compromised MSG. There are, however, rumours that some sort of "MSG" may go ahead next week.

WHAT DIPLOMATS CAN AND CANNOT DO (without being sent home).Acting Australian High Commissioner Sarah Roberts was expelled today under Article 9.1 of the 1961 Vienna Convention that regulates diplomatic relations between states.  While this is a most disappointing consequence of recent MSG events (in my view an unwise reaction to these events) we need reminding what diplomatic staff can and cannot do in a foreign country. Article 3.1 of spells out the functions of a diplomatic mission. In addition to representing and protecting the interests of, and reporting (by all legal means) information to the sending state, the mission should also negotiate with the Government of the receiving state, and promote friendly relations.

Article 41.1 says it is the duty of the mission to respect the laws and regulations of the receiving State, noting in particular that "They also have a duty not to interfere in the internal affairs of that State."

Sarah Roberts seems to have breached Article 41.1 of the Convention by seeking to  influence MSG representatives in Suva to get their countries to cancel next week's meeting, but  if  "diplomacy is the art of letting other people achieve your ends," she (and other Australian diplomats throughout the Region) have let other people, Natapei and the MSG leaders,  achieve Australia's ends.

THEY WERE WARNED.  Over a week ago, Bainimarama called on Australia to stop interfering in its internal affairs. His remarks following a comment by an unnamed Australian Foreign Affairs official in Murdock-owned The Australian newspaper, that "the people may have no choice but to stand up to Bainimarama and his thugs." Bainimarama said, "The article was inciting the people of Fiji to rise against his government and promoting further unrest. 

SMITH RESPONDS TO EXPULSION. Australia's Foreign Minister Stephen Smith says the reasons for the expulsion of their Acting Head of Mission in Suva are linked to Vanuatu's postponement of the coming meeting of the Melanesian Spearhead Group due to concerns about Fiji's role as chair. He also suspects it relates to his criticism of Fiji's interim government. But he says he will not respond by removing Fiji's only official in Canberra. "If I responded in kind that would see Fiji unrepresented in Australia and would effectively see the end of our formal diplomatic contact," he said.

Why Did the MSG Leaders Change Their Minds?

Opinion
Crosbie Walsh
13 July 2010

Background
Exactly one year ago today the Melanesian Spearhead Group resolved to ask the Pacific Islands Forum to lift the ban on Fiji at the meeting in Cairns in August. The MSG believed they were legally bound to allow Fiji to take part in regional trade and economic agreements such as PACER Plus and PICTA.

Radio Australia's Sean Dorney saw their decision as "quite a victory for Commodore Bainimarama. "Some of us," he said,  "were expecting there to be some suggestion or some urging of him to go to elections earlier than his proclaimed time of September 2014. But when the leaders finally had their news conference on Friday night, it was pretty clear that they were just saying right Commodore, we think you're on the right track. You've convinced us that you've got the plans that are going to suit Fiji into the future and we'll go along with what you say."

Here's what the newly appointed MSG Chairman Vanuatu's Prime Minister, Edward Natapei (photo), had to say:

"MSG Leaders noted the Government of Fiji's "Strategic Framework for Change" which was announced on 1st July 2009. The Framework sets out key milestones and timelines on major political and structural reforms which are necessary for sustainable democracy. A major component of this reform, reform agenda is the formulation of a new Constitution that will ensure equal suffrage for all people of Fiji including electoral reform.

Leaders noted that the Framework reflected a clear vision and strategic direction for far reaching changes that the people of Fiji would need in order to achieve sustainable democracy.

Now on Fiji and the Pacific Islands Forum: Leaders acknowledged the central role Fiji plays in the Pacific region, particularly within the Pacific Islands Forum - PIF - and its associated agencies, and called on members of the Pacific Islands Forum and development partners to engage in open and constructive dialogue with Fiji.

Leaders noted the importance of Fiji being continuously engaged in the PIF and the MSG. Leaders further recognise the importance of collective and inclusive group engagement in pursuing their common interests in the region, including economic cooperation arrangements.

Leaders recognised Fiji's right to participate in regional trade and economic cooperation agreements such as PICTA, PACER Plus and the interim EPA. The exclusion of Fiji from discussions of these agreements would be invalid and therefore the decisions pertaining to those agreements would be null and void."

But Fiji never went to Cairns. It was never allowed its "right to participate" in anything.  Somehow the MSG leaders had changed their minds.

Natapei's Further Mind Change
So what  caused Natapei and, apparently, the MSG leaders to change their minds about attending the MSG meeting in Fiji next week, and why was their decision so long delayed?

Was it because having Bainimarama chair the meeting was a "threat to the organization's values," as Natapei claims?   Or because all the MSG leaders thought, contrary to the evidence, that the situation had deteriorated in Fiji since they endorsed Bainimarama's "Strategic Framework for Change" 12 month's ago? Natapei's reference to an "impasse" on the chairmanship could be the explanation except that  only one week ago PNG assured us that Natapei had agreed to Bainimarama chairing the meeting.  And why was this turn-around decision left so late?  Natapei says he's invited Bainimarama to visit Vanuatu to resolve the matter but, as he must have known, this invitation came too late to "resolve the matter" and  hold the Fiji meeting.

Natapei's invitation is a little cheeky. He supported Fiji's inclusion in the Cairns meeting and then backtracked. He supported the Strategic Framework for Change and backtracked again. He agreed to Bainimarama chairing the Fiji meeting and backtracked yet again. He accepted the invitation to attend the meeting and then scrapped the meeting, causing unnecessary costs, insult and humiliation to Fiji and Bainimarama personally. And then, to add to the insult, he invites Bainimarama to Vanuatu so he can "resolve the matter." Why didn't he  go to Fiji and sort it out there? And who gave him the authority to resolve the situation, anyway? He said all the MSG leaders were involved. [P.S. One report says there are.]

Something Doesn't Quite Tick
Something about all these comings and goings doesn't quite tick.  There are just too many coincidences.

In addition to the latest about-face by Natapei and the MSG, we have the Australian-PNG meeting in Alotau last week when PNG agreed to two Fiji clauses in their joint communique. Then there's the reports that the Australia's Acting High Commissioner in Suva has been urging MSG countries to boycott the Fiji meeting (and presumably similar actions in Australia and other MSG countries). And Vanuatu's hosting of the Forum meeting next month. It would be most surprising if there were not a link between these happenings.

It is also conceivable that the likely forthcoming "no confidence" motion against the Somare government may be connected. Somare, a long-time friend of Fiji, was in no position to exercise his usual influence just when it was most needed.

Several observers said a successful MSG Plus meeting in Fiji would put "Australia's nose out of joint." There was even talk of a reinvigorated MSG and a threat to the integrity of the Forum. Australia, which is not a member of the MSG, could not allow this to happen. It must remain the dominant player in the Region and in the Forum. Coincidences or not, the outcome is a happy one for Australia.

Unhappy Day for Fiji
What it has done to assist Fiji is another question.  Natapei says the MSG has a "more critical role to play in assisting Fiji to restore parliamentary democracy through increased dialogue and interaction ... across all levels of Fiji society.." These are the "choice" words of those opposed to what Bainimarama is trying to do.

Bainimarama wants to move forward to parliamentary democracy, not back. He does not want dialogue and interaction with "all levels" if this means with the parliamentarians he ousted in 2006. And he certainly won't be impressed, as his Government picks up the expense tabs, with Natapei's version of  "Melanesian values and traditional practices."

There is one slight possibility that  some good might eventuate as a result of this unhappy day for Fiji if it results in an acceleration of the dialogue process and  more inclusive involvement leading to elections in 2014. But this would have been more likely to happen as a result of discussion among friends at the MSG Plus meeting. I suspect Bainimarama will now be less likely to listen to those he can no longer trust. Unfortunately, his first act will probably be to expel the Acting Australian High Commissioner, and progress on dialogue within the country will suffer a further serious setback.

If these predictions are correct, Natapei and the MSG leaders' action, and Australia's almost certain role in at least some of the "coincidences," will have produced the exact opposite effect to that they presumable intended.  My prediction is that it will not be long before they regret what they have done, but much longer before they admit it.

Who on earth is providing this policy advice? Three and a half years down the road from 2006, Australian (and New Zealand) attempts to isolate Fiji and cause internal collapse have demonstrably failed. Their policies  have damaged the economy, brought hardship to ordinary Fijians, increased military involvement in government,  and hardened Government's resistance against inclusive dialogue.  Despite this, all the evidence points to Bainimarama's growing popularity.  Who knows, the  latest episode could make him even more popular if he is seen  as a David standing up to a Goliath.