pn948. New Caledonia on Brink of Civil War

 

Amid heightened global tensions and a local crisis centring on the efforts of the indigenous Kanak people to secure their rights, the restoration of long-lasting peace is necessary in New Caledonia as the threat of civil war looms.

Since 13 May 2024, the nickel-rich islands in the Southwest Pacific have experienced severe unrest, described by French President Emmanuel Macron as an ‘unprecedented insurrection movement’, with the indigenous Kanak population at the forefront of the riots. On 15 May, France declared a state of emergency in its Pacific territory. The riots have targeted vehicles and ambulances bound for hospitals in Noumea, affecting residents’ access to healthcare. Barricades, skirmishes with the police and looting has left nine dead and hundreds injured, inflicting hundreds of millions of euros in damage.

After one month of deadly unrest, Macron announced on 12 June a temporary suspension of the controversial voting reforms to restore order, though this fails to address the long-term issues concerning the future of New Caledonia. The French High Commissioner of Noumea confirmed on 17 June that a curfew will still remain in effect and public gatherings will remain prohibited. The transfer of seven New Caledonian pro-independence activists to prisons in mainland France following the recent unrest has fuelled a new wave of violence in the French Pacific territory since 22 June.

The unrest in New Caledonia stems from a controversial law allowing individuals living in the region for over ten years to vote in local elections, which the Kanak community views as discriminatory. The law contradicted the Noumea Accord, a 1998 agreement granting increased political power to the collegial elected government of New Caledonia, comprising independence and loyalist parties.    Click here to read more

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzQVxbdndnNThgbdGltDwHpkNPDr

pn947. Fiji: a Small Ray of Hope with the appointment of Graeme Leung as Attorney-General

 

With the appointment of former Fiji Law Society President Graeme Leung as Attorney-General an important detail has changed in the Fiji political scene, one that could see a reversal — or at least a review— of some very questionable legal decisions by the outgoing Acting Attorney-General Siromi Turaga, and a clean, fresh start for Fiji.  

Siromi Turaga is the highly biased, politically-motivated AG  in cahouts with Acting Chief Justice Salesi Temo who made two illegal appointments: Alipate Qataki as a judge and John Rabuka as acting Director of Public Proscecutions. Both appointments were in breach of Fiji's Constitution. 

Further, Temo's overruling of Magistrate Seini Puamua who had virtually acquitted former PM and FijiFirst leader Voqere Bainimarama of charges against him was also questionable.  Temo's over-ruling resulted in Bainimarama (and former police chief Sitiveni Qihilo) being jailed which stripped Bainimarama of the FijiFirst leadership and denied him a place in parliament.  Thus, Temo effectively beheaded the largest party in parliament, FijiFirst party, and removed almost all parliamentary opposition to government. With only a two seat majority the government coalition of People's Alliance, National Federatlon Party and SODELPA, PM Sitiveni Rabuka must be very pleased indeed.

Which makes one ask why Graeme Leung's appointment?

It certainly adds much needed credibility and respectability to government which has been plagued with by a number of "salacious" scandals and internal divisions.

Leung's chief duty as AG  is to advise the PM on all legal matters.  Whether or not the PM heeds his advice is another thing.

Leung could (and I believe should) call for:

■ the appointment of a Chief Justice and the dismissal of Acting CJ Temo. (Temo's appointment was criticized by the Fiji Law Society) 

■ the cancellation of  the Alipate Qataki and John Rabuka appointments; 

■ the reinstatement of Director of  Public Prosecutions Chris Pryde who has been waiting for his appeal to be heard of over 14 months; 

■ an earlier hearing of the appeal of Elizabeth Rice, wrongfully stood down as Assistant Director of Public Prosecutions because she is "white";

■  the decision to deregister the Fiji First Party to be put on hold. It could be derigistered unless it changes its constitution by 28th April. The party needs time to recover from its current disarray following 17 of its 26 MPs voting with Government on the pay increase bill contrary to party instructions.

■ an early appeal hearing for Bainimarama (and former police chief Sitiveni Qihilo) against Tempo's ruling;

■ and perhaps a review of the USP case that was used to remove Bainimarama in the first place (see pn936).

-- ACW

pn946. Papua New Guinea landslide disaster: at least 2,000 dead

At least 2,000 people   have been killed in a major landslide in the remote Highlands province of Enga 600 km NW of the capital Port Moresby when the side of a mountain collapsed on Friday.  Aid rushed to the area is impeded by nearby tribal fighting. This article provides a good coverage while this article provides some additional detail.

Meanwhile, in the capital, it is unclear whether the existing government will remain in power.  A  vote of confidence in parliament today could see PM Marape toppled.

pn945. FijiFirst Party in Disarray. What's going to happen now?

 

Fiji Parliament chamber

Precisely when Fiji needs a strong and united Opposition party, more so than perhaps ever before, the FijiFirst Party has shown just how weak and disunited it is with members putting their own selfish monetary interests ahead of the party and the nation.  

Sixteen of its MPs, including the Leader of the Opposition Inia Seruiratu,  went against the party directive to  vote against or abstain from voting on a government motion to substantially increase salaries and benefits of all parliamentary members by up to 138%.

All 16 could be expelled from the party --and from parliament  -- for their actions. There are compelling factors to expel and not to expel them.

Graham Davis in Grubsheet gives all the details. Click here.

See also what others think about the increases:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/517803/fiji-mps-vote-for-salary-increases-as-public-faces-economic-hardships

pn944. Two Historical "Good Reads" on NZ and the Solomon Islands

<br><table><tbody><tr><td>photo 

</td><td> photo </td></tr></tbody></table><br>

Victor Billot writes on his experience of the NewLabour and then Alliance parties. This is the first of two parts, published in Commonweal volume four in October 2023.

His personal story of Jim Anderton's New Labour Party and the Alliance Party. The last attempt to swing the political pendulum to the left. A little long winded; the best part is towards the middle and end. 

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#label/BLOG/FMfcgzGxTPGBwsrBBHKzfgQVdNcQTQbW

What Solomon Islanders thought about the American occupation in World War II. They saw Black soldiers in the same uniform as the White soldiers!

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#label/BLOG/FMfcgzGxTPGBwsrBBHKzfgQVdNcQTQbW

pn943. Not to be missed: No Māori Allowed. NZTV1 7:30 Tonight

 

pn941.Iwi pledges to use only te reo Māori to communicate with Goverment

A south Taranaki iwi will use only te reo Māori when corresponding or speaking with central government officials from now on and hopes other iwi and kaupapa Māori organisations will follow suit.

In a media release, Te Korowai o Ngāruahine Trust said its board and employees would all seek to use te reo when engaging with the Government. “If all our speakers across the motu utilised te reo Māori in their engagement with government, this will demonstrate demand for te reo Māori services in real terms and cause resourcing pressure on the overall government policy agenda,” chair Emma Gardiner said.

Speaking to Newsroom, the trust’s chief executive Te Aorangi Dillon said what started as a response to the Government’s policies on te ao Māori, including te reo, had prompted the iwi to reflect on the value of the campaign for language revitalisation. Read more ... https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/05/17/iwi-pledges-to-use-only-te-reo-maori-to-communicate-with-govt/

pn940. Pacific NGO alliance condemns France for 'betrayal of the Kanaky people'

 

An alliance of over two dozen Pacific non-government organisations have condemned France for what they say is a "betrayal" of New Caledonia's Kanak population.

In a statement, the group have also called for calm and peace as the civil unrest enters its eighth day after Paris adopted controversial constitutional amendment that would open up the local electoral rolls to allow French residents in who have been in New Caledonia for 10 years to vote in provincial elections.

It is a move that pro-independence protesters say would weaken the indigenous Kanak vote and the principle reason for the violent unrest.

The Pacific Regional Non-Government Organisations (PRNGOs) has condemned "the Macron government for its poorly hidden agenda of prolongling colonial control over the territory".

The alliance said Kanak leaders had called repeatedly for the withdrawal of the proposed constitutional changes that would endanger the indigenous peoples' right to self-determination and threaten ongoing peaceful dialogue about future arrangements for the territory for several months.

"The changes, proposed unilaterally by the Macron government, would remove voting eligibility provisions that have been preserved and protected under the 1998 Nouméa Accords as a safeguard for indigenous peoples against demographic changes that could make them a minority in their own land and block the path to freedom," the statement said.

pn939. Riots in New Caledonia

 

Constitutional amendments by the French parliament to allow people who had been resident in New Caledonia to vote have sparked off riots  by pro-independence groups in the capital Noumea. Some 10,000 rioters are involved. four people are dead and the riot leaders have been arrested.  

Last Wednesday, the French National Assembly voted 351 in favour (mostly right-wing parties) and 153 against (mostly left-wing parties) the proposed constitutional amendments that would open the electoral roll and allow those who have been residing in New Caledonia for an uninterrupted ten years to vote in local elections.

Le Monde says "the reform of the territory's electorate has reawakened a near-civil war atmosphere, because major inequalities disadvantaging Kanak people persist, and the government has seemed to be biased in favor of one side."

The rioters claim the French parliamant decision has broken a  20-year accord with the local indigenous Kanaks, and threatened to make the Kanak a minority in their own country.   French troops are being flown into the country, food is in short supply in Noumea, commercial flights are cancelled and the route to the airport is all but closed. Some 300 New Zealanders are currently in the country.

The Pacific Conference of Churches  has called for the UN to lead an impartial and competent dialogue mission to monitor the situation. In a statement on Friday, it said it "stands in deep solidarity with our sisters and brothers of Kanaky", saying the violence is born of frustration and pain. It said after 20 years of consensual management, the breakdown in dialogue between the French government and the independence fighters and the Kanak people is now a reality.

The Pacific Islands Forum and the Melanesian Spearhead Group have always supported the independence of New Caledonia. The Melanesian Spearhead Group and Vanuatu's prime minister Charlot Salwai has called on the French government to withdraw or annul the proposed constitutional amendments that sparked the civil unrest.

French Home Affairs and Overseas minister Gérald Darmanin refuses to accept the Kanak rationale for the riots. He says "This is a Mafia-like body which I do not amalgamate with political pro-independence parties...[it] is a group that claims itself to be pro-independence and commits looting, murders and violence." 

With such an attitude, useful dialogue is unlikely any time soon. Arresting the riot leaders is not the solution.

-- ACW, based mainly on RNZI reports.

pn938. Solomon Islands Post-Election. What, if enything, has changed?

 

Dr Jon Fraenkel provides the details. See hyperlink below. 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/516264/solomon-islands-an-incumbent-s-defeat-and-resurrection

pn937. The Changing Composition of NZ's population due to emigration and immigration

Updated. See link at end.

Net migration loss of NZ citizens exceeds 50,000 a year for the first time

A record 52,500 New Zealand citizens left the country in the year ended March 31, according to Stats NZ.  The latest numbers were much higher than the previous record of 44,400 citizen departures, more than a decade ago.“This is the first time the annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens has exceeded 50,000,” Tehseen Islam of Stats NZ said this morning.

Stats NZ also said the provisional net migration gain of 111,100 in the year comprised a net gain of 163,600 non-New Zealand citizens that more than offset the net migration loss of 52,500 Kiwi citizens. For migrant arrivals in the March 2024 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 49,800 arrivals. About 31,900 Philippines citizens arrived. About 26,800 arrivals were citizens of China and 25,800 were New Zealand citizens.

Read this update https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/05/15/stratospheric-exodus-of-skilled-workers-huge-loss-for-nz-expert/

pn936. Former Fiji PM Voqere Bainimarama sentenced to one year's jail

Bainimarama with cloth covering handcuffs
"so that his grandchildren would not see them."

Fiji's most popular leader in recent times and former PM 69-year old  Frank Bainimarama has been sentenced to one year's jail for "perverting the course of justice" by Acting Chief Jusice Selesi Temo.  Former Police Chief  Sitiveni Qiliho who acted on Bainimarama's instruction was sentenced to two years. 

The maximum penalty possible was 5 years for Bainimarama and 10 years for  Qiliho. 

Both had previously had the charges dismissed in the Magistrate's court by Magistrate Seini Puamau but her ruling was overruled by Acting Chief Justice Temo (see pn923).

The charges stem from an instruction in 2019 by Bainimarama to stop an investigation into claims by the then new  University of South Pacific's Vice-Chancellor Professor Pal Ahluwahia of alleged financial mismanagement by the administraton under the previous USP VC the late Professor Rajesh Chandra*, pertaining to questionable appointments, contract renewals, leave payments and back pay.

It is interesting to note that similar charges have been made against the VC's of Fiji's other two universities, the University of Fiji and the Fiji National University.   University of Fiji VC Professor Shaista Shameem says "complaints were likely to be put together by several 'identifiable disgruntled former management and academic staff.'"(see pn 825). And so could the complaints at USP. In my post of 5 February 2021 I noted there were 33 cases of alleged mismanagement against Professor Ahluwahia. Such is Fiji. What goes around comes around. 

I have previously commented that it is unusual for an incoming VC to criticize a previous administration, which seemed pointless anyway since there was no way of reversing appointments and renewals or recovering the alleged money lost in leave- and back pay.  I thought the new VC should "get on with the job" of administering the university and healing the divisions among his staff.

While the USP charge is questionable, the Rabuka government has made it clear that that they would "get" Bainimarama one way of another. With the slim majority in parliament and serious charges against some of its coalition partners government needed to find a way to distract attention from government and discredit the largest party in parliament Bainimarama's Fiji First Party. In the 55-seat parliament FF has 26 seats, Rabuka's People's Alliance has 21, the National Federation Party 5 and SODELPA 3.

If this charge had failed, it is rumoured they had another 30 charges they thought they could use against Bainimarama.

Imprisonment means that Bainimarama cannot stand in another election for several years unless he can get the judgment overturned  by appeal. This stands a good change of succeeding if the judges are independent, which Acting Chief Justice Temo most certainly is not.

 * Disclosure. Rajesh Chandra was a former student of mine in the 1960 and a senior colleague and friend in the 1990s.

-- ACW

pn935. Soon, could we be listening to only National Party , Act and NZP news and views?

As the nation's  public TV news and opinion channels start to close down to save government money, we wonder where it will stop.

 Could we, in a  year's time, be listening to only Government news, and the role of the fourth estate as a check on government have ceased until a more enlighted government is returned to power?

Read https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/05/03/thank-you-for-watching-midday-signs-off-for-the-final-time/

pn934. NZ MPs are in the top one percent of earners. Read how it happened.

 

Once, MPs were regarded as public servants and backbench MPs received salaries similar to secondary school teachers.

Now, MPs are in the top one percent of earners with backbench MPs being  paid $163,000, or $231,000 with perks added. The PM is paid $472,000 plus perks.

Bryce Edwards of the Democracy Project traces how it all happened in  "Accepting a significant pay rise shows how much MPs are out of touch."

He opens with: 

"How entitled are New Zealand’s politicians? Right now, MPs across the political spectrum look entirely out of touch in their unified stance of accepting the hefty pay increases recommended by the Remuneration Authority.

MPs should simply reject the pay increases – which they can easily do – rather than risk a legitimate public backlash from constituents who feel betrayed by an already well-paid political class that insists on austerity for others but not themselves."

 Read on by clicking here.

pn933. Solomon Islands Elections: a return of the incumbent government

Jeremiah Manele has been elected the new PM of Solomon Islands, with 31 votes over rival Matthew Wale's 18. 

 Foreign media has made much of the demise of former PM Manasseh Sogavere whose switch from recognition of Taiwan to the People's Republic of China has been seen as a major election issue. If this was so, it must have been a very minor issue. Manele was Foreign Minister under Sogavere when the switch was made and he has promised to maintain present relationships.

Moreover, Manele's victory signals a return of the incumbent government formerly headed by Manasseh Sogavare in the 50-seat parliament.

Manele's administration, which calls itself the Government for National Unity and Transformation (GNUT), is made up of three parties; his own Our Party with 15 seats, Manasseh Maelanga's People's First Party with 3 seats and Jamie Vokia's Kandere Party with one seat, a total of 19, together with the SI Party for Rural Advancement (1 seat) and support from among the 11 independents MPs.

Matthew Wale's opposition —that mainly opposed the switch from Taiwan— comprises his own Democratic Party with 11 seats, the United Party with 6 seats, and one seat from the Democratic Alliance party.

The fragmentation of both government and opposition groups is only too obvious, and with most loyalties linked to individuals, clans and island groups the next few years promise to be very volatile.

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/05/02/solomon-islands-lawmakers-elect-jeremiah-manale-as-new-pm/

See also pn931.

-- ACW

pn932. Latest NZ Political Polls

 Three poll results have been released in the past three days, two of which show a Labour coalition could form government if an election were held on the poll date, 1News-Verian because NZ First dropped below the 5% threshold, Talbot Mills on numbers. 

But which date? The Talbot Mills poll ran though March, and the Roy Morgan poll for parts of March and April. The only poll conducted over a reasonable short time was 1News-Verian.  See table:

Tabot Mills tends to favour Labour and Roy Morgan National. 

Australian-based Roy Morgan also published a breakdown by age and sex of those polled. A similar breakdown from the other pollsters would have been useful.

Men, particularly older men, favoured National. Women favoured Labour and younger women Greens. Nearly a quarter (24.5%) of women aged 18-45 would vote Greens! See details below.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

	2023 NZ Election	April 2024	Women			Men
			All	18-49	50+	All	18-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
National	38.1	36.5	28	14.5	42.5	45.5	41.5	49.5
ACT	8.6	11	10	14	5.5	12	6.5	18
NZ First	6.1	5.5	4.5	3.5	6	6	4	8.5
National/ ACT/ NZ First	52.8	53	42.5	32	54	63.5	52	76
Labour	26.9	24.5	28	25	31	21.5	25.5	16.5
Greens	11.6	13	16.5	24.5	7.5	9.5	16	2.5
Maori Party	3.1	5.5	9.5	16	2.5	1.5	2	1
Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party	41.6	43	54	65.5	41	32.5	43.5	20
Others	5.6	4	3.5	2.5	5	4	4.5	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

The polls show that the National Coalition has lost some support since the elections and that Labour's standing is also not spectacular. 

PM Luxon had 23% support as preferred PM, down 2%, while Opposition leader Hipkins had 16%, up a miserable 1%.

In the 1News Verian Poll, voters were also asked: "Which of the [coalition] party leaders do you think has the most influence on Government decisions?"

Around 51% responded with the prime minister, while about 49% did not.

Out of those who didn't believe the National leader was in control, 23% believed New Zealand First's Winston Peters had the most influence, 10% said ACT's David Seymour was in charge, whilst 17% said they didn't know who was behind the wheel. 

Could New Zealanders be disallusioned with a jaded political line up on both sides of the political divide?

-- ACW

pn931. Democracy in the Solomon Islands

Sogave switched from regognizing
Taiwan to recognizing China

 Democracy can be limited when there are too few parties contesting an election. It is limited also when there are too many, and too many independent candidates, as is the case with the Solomon Islands which has just had an election, and is now on tenterhooks as parties woo support from other parties and independents to elect  a government and appoint a prime minister.  

 Former PM Mannaseh Sogavare 's One party did best with 15 successful candidates but it needs another 11 if it is to form the government in the 50-seat parliment. Matthew Wale's Democratic party came next with 11 seats.  In all,  eight parties won one seat or more and there are 11 independents. 

The opportunities —and need? —for graft and other forms of corruption in lobbying for support are immense. One wonders whether franchise, at this stage of Solomon Islands development, might be better in the hands of a geographically representative and educated council of electors.

This RNZ article sums up the sums up the voting situation.

pn930. A Funny one, for a change

 

Fred was about to tee off on the first hole when a second golfer (George) approached and asked if he could join him. Fred said that he usually played alone, but agreed to the twosome. They were even after the first two holes. 

George said, "We're about evenly matched, how about playing for five bucks a hole?" Fred said that he wasn't much for betting, but agreed. 

George easily won the remaining 16 holes. They walked off number eighteen while George counted his $80.00. He then confessed that he was the pro at a neighboring course and “liked to pick on suckers.” 

Fred, shocked, revealed that he was the Parish Priest. The pro was flustered and apologetic and offered to return the money. 

The Priest said, "You won fair and square I was foolish to bet with you. Keep your winnings." The embarrassed pro asked, "Please, is there anything I can do to make it up to you?" 

The Priest said, "Well, you could come to Mass on Sunday and make a donation. And, if you want to bring your Mother and Father along, I'll marry them.”

--

Thanks, Verghese, for this one.

pn929 An Unbiblical Exodus. Some 70,000 - 80,000 people have left Fiji in the last 18 months

Read this pertinent but rather emotional criticism of NFP leader and Deputy PM Professor Biman Prasad by Graham Davis in Grubsheet, and then read the professor's comments on the situation. First, read about the Professor as a major cause, because he did nothing; then read some of the effects he describes.

See also pn924.

pn928. Solomon Islands goes to the polls: here's what to expect by Anouk Ride

Dr Anouk Ride*  presents a picture of a very fragile democracy where most people' s allegiance is to their clan, island and church. The concept of a Solomon Island nation takes a second or lower place.

Solomon Islanders are set to vote on 17 April in an election that has significance within and beyond the country’s borders. It is the first chance for them to vote on policy directions that the coalition led by Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has taken and may change or consolidate his power.

Since Sogavare was elected by his parliamentary peers in April 2019, Solomon Islanders have lived through several shocks. First there were riots in April 2019, precursors to a much larger riot in November 2021. Both incidents related to grievances about the ruling political coalition and perceived foreign control of government decisions and the economy.

There was a switch in bilateral relations from Taiwan to China in September 2019, a decision announced before a parliamentary inquiry concluded or provincial governments had their say. The omission contributed to tensions between the prime minister’s office and the Malaitan provincial government, especially its former premier, Daniel Suidani. Those tensions resulted in Suidani’s removal from office in a vote of confidence in February, allegedly after money was offered to members of the provincial assembly to take him down.

Then there was Covid-19, which prompted a 28-month state of emergency. Sogavare’s emergency powers included rights to decide who could enter the country. He could also ban events, restrict inter-island travel and suspend access to media outlets. A decision to ban Facebook was ultimately not implemented but pointed to an anti-democratic trend. With even much-needed doctors and nurses sacked over strike plans or a critical social media post, rising centralisation of power and restrictions on free speech became clear. Criticism of the coalition has become more muted or is kept private.

Governance has become less transparent. No auditor general’s annual report on the state of government finances has been published in the past five years. The Royal Solomon Islands Police Force has released no annual report since 2018. Allegations of corruption, including alleged bribery of High Court officials, are unresolved.

Foreign money, meanwhile, has helped consolidate the ruling coalition’s power. Constituency development funds—discretionary money given to members of parliament— have a long history in Solomon Islands, but in 2021 the money, now coming from China, was for the first time allocated not to all MPs but only to members of the coalition. Aid funds from other countries tended to be directed into preparations for the South Pacific Games of late 2023.  Click here to read in full.

* Anouk Ride is a research fellow at the Australian National University and an adjunct research fellow at Solomon Islands National University.