Let's Get Some Reality into Political Polls

pn526

The hoo-ha about the latest Colmer-Brunton and Newshub polls shows either that media commentators need to take a course in STATS101 and brush up on what can —and what cannot— be deduced from a poll, or that they need to be taken to task for deliberately misleading the public to sell copy, please advertisers, and put their spokes into the political process in favour of National.

One might expect such shortcomings from Opposition leader Simon Bridges ("What this shows is a government that isn't doing anything, that doesn't know what it's doing..") and the likes of Mike Hosking ("They  [Labour] are a mess. lots of noise, not a lot of action...NZ decides they are not up to it")  but not from an informed, balanced (and it has to be said privately-owned!) media whose  misleading dramatic headlines read:

Gordon Campbell on the Social Welfare Report : "One might have thought the recommendations were equally compelling for any true centre-left government."

Gordon Campbell cn377
See also earlier post cn376 "A Glut of Reforms..."

"One can sympathise (a little) with the coalition government as it contemplates the legacy of neglect – and the raft of punitive policies that went with it – that it has inherited from the last National government. Still, it is becoming plain that leadership on social justice issues cannot be entrusted to the political micro-managers that dominate the Labour caucus."

The Sad Case of Cameron Slater

pn320

Most things in life eventually catch up on us. 

If you sit at a computer too long, don't exercise and watch your diet and are overweight, you're more likely to have a stroke —and that's what happened to Cameron Slater late last year. 

If you use your blog to unethically malign others, you're likely to be fined by the Human Rights Tribunal —and that's what happened to Cameron Slater this year when he was ordered to pay $70,000 compensation for the "extended assassination of businessman Matthew Blomfield's character.

Cameron, unable to defend himself because of the strokes and purportedly unable pay the $70,000  fine declared himself bankrupt in February. 

This might have led us to think that the days of the blog were over.  But no. The other shareholder in Social Media Consultants Ltd that owns Whaleoil is his wife and fellow blogger Juana Mary Atkins. 

She put the company into voluntary liquidation on Monday and set up a new site Wobh Ltd. The future of Whaleoil is still unclear but it continues to publish.

For the present, Whaleoil  which  was the vehicle for the offending attacks that resulted in the Commission fine, continues unpunished. It still spits out its daily venom about supposed Marxist jihadists, the conscription of jihadists at Christchurch mosques, the Left and big tech companies allegedly stifling free speech, shutting down criticism and debate,  and ridiculing the supposedly ridiculous claim that Jacinda Ardern deserves a Nobel Peace prize. 

To draw a parallel,  if guns as well as gun owners need to be registered, a strong case also exists for a blog as well as its owners to be held responsible for their action. 

Whaleoil should be closed down, and its possible surrogate Wobh put under close scrutiny.

It is too easy to declare bankruptcy and escape responsibility.

--ACW

The Capital Gains Tax and —Guess What— Iraq

pn292

Liam Hehir, B.A,. LLB (VUW), is a lawyer, a partner in the Palmerston North law firm, Fitzgerald Rowe. In his LinkedIn page he writes that he has "expertise and interests in contract drafting, commercial and property law, intellectual property, and transactional and persuasive writing." That's probably where his weekly Stuff-stable newspaper column, the "Firing Line," purportedly on media and culture, comes in. His latest persuasive column on media and politics (sic!) on the Capital Gains Tax is a pearler.

Capitalism's Vote of Confidence in the NZ Labour Coalition

pn261

Standard and Poor’s Just Sabotaged Simon Bridges’ Tax Bribe Announcement 
Extract from Frank Macskasy* in The Daily Blog, February 1, 2019

With indications that the Tax Working Group will shortly be making its final report back to the Coalition, and with expectations that it will recommend a Capital Gains Tax on property (excluding the family home), National has launched a multi-media campaign on taxation. Twitter, Facebook, as well as the msm have all carried National’s announcement to cut taxes (dressed up as “tax adjustments” to deflect criticism that National is once again planning to cut taxes for the rich).

The Greens, Blue Greens and National's Political Futures

Kennedy Graham pn254

UPDATE. Perhaps the best commentary on the question by PeterDunn. Click here.
------------------------------------------------
National is unlikely to win the next election on its own. It needs a centrist or extreme right coalition partner.  The ACT party seems to have had its day though David Seymour is an impressive performer,  the New Conservatives undermined themselves but could still return, and the Maori Party, if it can cross the threshold,  is unlikely to rejoin National. It achieved much with National but most Maori voter were not convinced.  

The search is on for a revitalised or new partner capable of taking votes from the three parties that presently make up the Government. The most likely new party will been a centrist or right-leaning Green party. There is as yet no clear indication of what will emerge but something is likely this year. 

These three writers, Martyn Bradbury, Lucy Bennett and Gordon Campbell consider the possibilities. 

Reporting on the Latest Colmar Brunton Poll

pn196

Updated. See penultimate para.__________

Percentage changes in the November Colmar Brunton poll show National up 3 to 46 from October, Labour down 2 to 43, Greens down 2 to 5, NZFirst down 1 to 4,  Act up 1 and the Maori Party unchanged at 1.  In the preferred leader stakes, Jacinda Ardern is down 3 to 39, Simon Bridges is unchanged at 7, Judith Collins is up at 6, Winston Peters is unchanged at 4 — and John Key, who left parliament two years ago, is up 2. 


The NZ Herald and 1News wrote of  a "surge" in support for National,   Stuff more modestly chose the word"overtake" and  Martyn Bradbury writes in the extreme left-wing Daily Blog went into all sort of moralising details on why:

Two Women, One a Fijian, One a New Zealander

pn185

Fijian Lenora Qereqeretabua, the third successful NFP candidate who won a seat in the Fiji election, has come out strongly against the 48-hour Blackout, the period before election day during which there can be no politicizing. She has a point. 48 hours is a long time. However, the leader of the Multinational Observer Group had no problem with 48 hours, but

Labour Party Conference Speeches

2018 Conference

Three of the speeches delivered at the weekend's Labour Party Conference in Dunedin. 
■ Jacinda Ardern  (link) announced 1000 extra places for students with complex needs;  more help for 2900 deaf and hard-of-hearing students, 1500 low-vision students, and around 1900 more children with high needs in early childhood education. Teacher-aide funding received an extra $59.3 million. And she talked about the introduction of universal free dental care. Read Dr Bryce Edwards on this. 
■ Kelvin Davis's speech (link) 

NZ Political Snippets: Charter Schools, Oil exploration, Residency, Synethic Drugs, Bill English upbeat. Pay equity, Trade Hui, Land protest

pn145

Government repeal of Charter Schools welcomed by PPTA.

National criticises oil exploration ban.

NZFirst Bill proposed 20 years residence for Super.

Sri Lankan family wins NZ residency battle.

National and NZFirst work together on synthetic drugs.

Bill English upbeat about NZ economy.

Pay equity bill more "snakes and ladders""snakes and ladders." 

Auckland's trade strategy hui attracts 17,000 viewers.

Maori woman protester fights to preserve special Auckland land.

Child Poverty: We No Longer have a Welfare Net. Government Needs to Get a Move On

pn135

Janet McAllister* let's fly at our collapsed "welfare system" and Government sluggishness in tackling the child poverty problem.                                    
Here is what she has to say. For the full article,  click this link.

Due to inflation and rising rents, we do not currently have a welfare net; it’s more of a platform submerged so deeply in water that people who fall on to it can’t breathe, even standing on tip-toes.

A New Meaning for "Multi-Culturalism?"

At the investiture with Governor-General Patsy Reddy. pn138 Also -- Academic warns about  Chinese influence in our elections. ________ Alex Braae in The Bulletin thinks Jamie-Lee Ross's secretly recorded tapes raise "huge questions for National" not because they broke the law or proved Simon Bridges breached the Electoral Act by not disclosing a large donation —which they didn't— but because of ethical and other issues.  The tapes prove Bridges knew about the donation from multi-millionaire Yikun Zhang, who National had nominated for the Order of Merit.

The Hullabaloo over the Leak of Simon Bridges' Email

pn136

UPDATE. Jami-Lee Ross unanimously expelled from National caucus. $1m by-election in Botany.
________________________

I really don't see why the hullabaloo over Jami-Lee Ross and Simon Bridges. Yes, there's been a leak and, yes, we now have the probable culprit. Thank goodness. The media has been speculating — and casting doubt on Bridges' leadership— for weeks. Or is it months? In my opinion, this is an internal matter for National and should only be of passing interest to the media and the public. Bridges handled it in the best possible way, and no doubt the National caucus will do the same. 

Let them get on with the job, and start reporting on more important things that really matter. Taking cheap shots at the political parties and their leaders in "opinion" pieces based on rumour and speculation is not keeping the public informed: it's gossip. The media's focus should be on policies and what the political parties are doing about them. The media's political job is to inform, report and analyse news; not to make —and make up— the news as if they were the main actors.

This is what Chelsea Manning Leaked

pn62

Government has granted Chelsea Manning permission to apply for a visa to enter NZ for a talking tour.

This extract from Gordon Campbell's flagship website Werewolf* lists the offences for which she was jailed. 

It is a pity most journalists who reported National's objection to her entry failed to mention the nature of those secrets, for without this knowledge it is difficult to judge whether she was a traitor or a hero, and to whom.

"Manning leaked 700,000 documents that exposed the means via which the US government secretly practiced violence against vulnerable minorities around the world. For doing so, she was sentenced to 35 years in jail and served nearly seven of them, before having the rest of her sentence commuted by US President Barack Obama.

"The lengthy sentence [had] long been criticized by her advocates and supporters who have said that Manning’s leak was a public service that exposed human rights abuses. On Wednesday, during his last press conference as president, Obama said Manning’s sentence was “very disproportionate relative to what other leakers have received”.

"Here’s a list of ten things that Manning’s leaked cables revealed. The revelations included chapter and verse on these sort of activities:

• During the Iraq War, U.S. authorities failed to investigate hundreds of reports of abuse, torture, rape, and murder by Iraqi police and soldiers, according to thousands of field reports.

• There were 109,032 “violent deaths” recorded in Iraq between 2004 and 2009, including 66,081 civilians. Leaked records from the Afghan War separately revealed coalition troops’ alleged role in killing at least 195 civilians in unreported incidents, one reportedly involving U.S. service members machine-gunning a bus, wounding or killing 15 passengers.

• The U.S. Embassy in Paris advised Washington to start a military-style trade war against any European Union country that opposed genetically modified crops, with U.S. diplomats effectively working directly for GM companies such as Monsanto.

• British and American officials colluded in a plan to mislead the British Parliament over a proposed ban on cluster bombs.

• In Baghdad in 2007, a U.S. Army helicopter gunned down a group of civilians, including two Reuters news staff."

Personally, I think our government should be thanking Manning for these and other revelations, and for the sacrifices she made as a consequence of bringing them to light".  -- Gordon Campbell.

And from across the ditch:

"In 2010, as a US soldier stationed in Iraq, she decided to blow the whistle on her own army. She smuggled classified files off her base on a CD labelled ‘Lady Gaga’ and passed them on to Wikileaks. The video files showed horrifying and morally questionable airstrikes. 

"A journalist she thought she could trust squealed on her and she was arrested for treason. This could have earned her the death penalty but she got away with 35 years jail, later commuted to seven.

"She’s been out of jail for over a year but still walking into trouble everywhere she goes. 

"Harvard University honored her with a fellowship, motivating a former CIA man to resign from his post at the university. A traitor shouldn’t be honored, he said."
 -- www.thinkinc.org.au

Opinions are divided. Write what you think in  Comments below. 
____________________________

* I highly recommend Gordon's Werewolf for its often contrarian articles on politics, art and culture. Here's one journalist who does not dissemble. http://werewolf.co.nz