pn932. Latest NZ Political Polls

 Three poll results have been released in the past three days, two of which show a Labour coalition could form government if an election were held on the poll date, 1News-Verian because NZ First dropped below the 5% threshold, Talbot Mills on numbers. 

But which date? The Talbot Mills poll ran though March, and the Roy Morgan poll for parts of March and April. The only poll conducted over a reasonable short time was 1News-Verian.  See table:

Tabot Mills tends to favour Labour and Roy Morgan National. 

Australian-based Roy Morgan also published a breakdown by age and sex of those polled. A similar breakdown from the other pollsters would have been useful.

Men, particularly older men, favoured National. Women favoured Labour and younger women Greens. Nearly a quarter (24.5%) of women aged 18-45 would vote Greens! See details below.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

	2023 NZ Election	April 2024	Women			Men
			All	18-49	50+	All	18-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
National	38.1	36.5	28	14.5	42.5	45.5	41.5	49.5
ACT	8.6	11	10	14	5.5	12	6.5	18
NZ First	6.1	5.5	4.5	3.5	6	6	4	8.5
National/ ACT/ NZ First	52.8	53	42.5	32	54	63.5	52	76
Labour	26.9	24.5	28	25	31	21.5	25.5	16.5
Greens	11.6	13	16.5	24.5	7.5	9.5	16	2.5
Maori Party	3.1	5.5	9.5	16	2.5	1.5	2	1
Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party	41.6	43	54	65.5	41	32.5	43.5	20
Others	5.6	4	3.5	2.5	5	4	4.5	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

The polls show that the National Coalition has lost some support since the elections and that Labour's standing is also not spectacular. 

PM Luxon had 23% support as preferred PM, down 2%, while Opposition leader Hipkins had 16%, up a miserable 1%.

In the 1News Verian Poll, voters were also asked: "Which of the [coalition] party leaders do you think has the most influence on Government decisions?"

Around 51% responded with the prime minister, while about 49% did not.

Out of those who didn't believe the National leader was in control, 23% believed New Zealand First's Winston Peters had the most influence, 10% said ACT's David Seymour was in charge, whilst 17% said they didn't know who was behind the wheel. 

Could New Zealanders be disallusioned with a jaded political line up on both sides of the political divide?

-- ACW

pn812. Covid and the lastest One TV News Colmar Brunton Poll

Colmar Brunton

The latest Colman Brunton Poll largely confirms the results of the two earlier polls by Curia and Talbot Mills reported in my previous post (pn809). Its results, however, are more detailed and the methodology is spelt out, and therefore possibly more reliable. For example:

"Between 6-10th November 2021 1001 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region and ethnic identification. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel."

I'm confident the results are reasonably accurate, at least for the four larger parties, but I have three small reservations: 

1) Those polled by mobile phone were randomly selected, but the online results were chosen from a previously selected panel. More information is needed on how the panel was selected; 

2) "Percentages do not add to 100 due to rounding."  They certainly don't. Party Support totalled 108, possibly close to 10% of those polled.