The recent NZ Taxpayers' Union Curia poll (2-9 February) showed both major parties on 34.3% (Labour up +2.7%; National down -2.8%) with Greens on 7.8%, down -2.8%, and ACT on 11.7, up +0.9. The Greens seem to be losing support to Labour and ACT gaining support from National. With these results National-ACT would win just enough seats to form the next government.
Chris Hipkins to become Labour leader, replace Ardern as PM
Education and police minister Chris Hipkins is set to become the new leader of the Labour Party and New Zealand’s next Prime Minister.
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| Uffindell (L) nd Luxon |
Now he supposedly was "completely unaware" about recently-elected Sam Uffindell's school bullying, again because his staff failed to inform him.
After previously saying he was not told of Uffindell’s bullying at King’s College, Luxon revealed staff in his office were told – they just didn’t tell him. He said that was a “mistake”despite which he said he maintains he trusts in his staff. ”I think it was a genuine mistake. And I really trust my staff.”
This was no mistake. Either Luxon is not telling the whole truth or his staff are incompetent.
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| 1News-Kantar Poll, July-Ausust 2022 |
But therafter it's all swings and roundabouts. National and the Greens are a little down in both polls, ACT is well up (plus 4%) in the Kantar poll and a little down in the Morgan poll, and Labour is down a little in the former and up 2% in the latter. Over 10% of those polled did not know or refused to say who they would vote for.
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| The tools of indepth journalism |
Among the reasons given for the decline in Labour's popularity are concerns about the ever rising cost of living and law and order, in particular gangs and violent crimes (see links below). Labour has, and is, doing a lot about both but the public seems uninformed.
There is also, apparently —and Chris Luxon agrees. Indeed, this might have been his argument repeated in the media— a feeling that Labour's good at talking but not at doing.
What the media has not said is that the drop in Labour's fortunes is also due the obvious bias in much reporting (witness Mike Hosking Newstalk ZB and the NZ Herald), and perhaps, even more important, the lack of any indepth news without which the public has difficulty forming any real opinions based in fact.
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| Sir David Galahad Seymour |
The most significant happening was the election of Luxon as National's leader. New Covid arrangements could also have had an influence.
But. Air NZ was a profitable and well-run company when he took over as CEO and "then rode one of the greatest travel booms in history... He arrived at the very start of a boom and left right before it came crashing down."
While the overall opinion on MMP is that it is a big improvement on the old First Past the Post elections we once had, major MMP shortcomings include the ongoing dominance of the two major parties and their centralist positions, with Labour going to the right and National to the left to capture the 'middle' votes. The result? Governments have been afraid to seriously tackle major issues such as housing, poverty and climate change for fear of losing 'middle' voters."
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"The most important critique of MMP raised in Cooke’s article is that the current electoral system has led to timid governments that don’t deal with intractable and difficult problems. Our governments are now centrist and disinclined towards any boldness or radicalism."
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With the present Government committed to review the parliamentary system, Cooke's fourth article on where we go from here is especially important.
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| Judith and David |
But there's criticism that is directed and helpful, and criticism that sounds more like moaning.
Two examples of fair criticism were provided today by Maori Party co-leader Debbie Ngarewa Packer and ACT leader David Seymour. The "moaning" predictably —because it seems to be her style or even her temperament— came from National leader Judith Collins.
Debbie Ngarewa Packer accused the government of withholding/delaying key information to Māori such as locations of interest.
David Seymour questioned the slow turn out of vaccines wondering if we had a sufficient supply to last more than five days, and uncertainty about essential services, wondering why butchers were closed down.
Judith Collins also spoke of the relatively slow rate of vaccinations (over 70% have now have received or booked their first jab) but she couldn't resist a jab (pun intended) at government. She said it's not enough for the PM to speak from the podium at 1pm daily. "New Zealanders don't need sermons. We need vaccines in arms right now."
I like Seymour positive criticism —though I'll never vote ACT —and dislike Collins' constant personal remarks and negativity. I won't be voting National either.
-- ACW
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| Salute: Unity, Communist or Black Power? |
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Remember the time when kindergarten teacher and later National Party leader Jenny Shipley was appointed to the board of a number of NZ companies?
Now, the National Party’s shadow treasurer alleges a union leader appointed to Air New Zealand’s board was "planted" by the Government and has labelled the director “ill qualified”. He says Government had shown “poor judgement” with the appointment. My opinion is that the union leader appears highly qualified and should be a valuable addition to the team.
Farmers note: the flooding you saw on tonight's news is a result of climate change. Do you want the government to do nothing about it?
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| Oh, the grand old Duke of York, He had ten thousand men; he marched them up to the top of the hill, And he marched them down again. And when they were up they were up, And when they were down, they were down. And when they were only half way up, they were neither up nor down. |
1. The freshwater policy.
The decades-long decline in the quality of our rivers and lakes resulted in September 2020 in new rules affecting stock exclusion, fencing waterways, reporting nitrogen use, and changes around intensive winter grazing. Groundswell wants the policy scrapped saying the setting and attaining of freshwater guidelines should fall under catchment groups, in association with regional councils.
■ Comment. Forest and Bird (click here), and many others, disagree. It is evident already that many farmers and local authorities cannot be entrusted with the care of our rivers and lakes. Profits and votes are too important.
"A budget inspired by Labour’s original economic and social principles.
"The legacy Robertson and his colleagues have accepted from the past is not the legacy of Helen Clark and Michael Cullen, but of Norman Kirk and Bill Rowling. The torch which the Baby Boom Generation refused to accept, has been grasped by their children."-- Chris Trotter.
Party votes in The Newhub Reid Reseach Poll results of 7-13 May, with a margin of error of ±3.1%, were:
Labour 52.7 +3.7% |
National 27.0 +1.4% |
Greens 7.1 –0.8% |
Act 6.9 -0.7% |
Māori 1.2 % – No change |
Four other parties totally 4.4% between them, and they were all down on the previous poll. |
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| Latent racism:biding its time under the bed |
Such is Graham Adams’ article “Ardern in the gun over He Puapua” which comments on Judith Collins’ “separatism” speech delivered to a National Party meeting over the weekend. It opens with this sentence: "A covert 20-year plan to establish Māori sovereignty..."
Wow! Another conspiracy theorist!
I won’t for the moment comment on Collins’ retake of Brash’s (in)famous Orewa speech which saw the party’s popularity among Pākehā soar after what many Māori saw as an attack on their Treaty stance —or anything further onwhat Adams’ wrote about her speech— but I do think Bryce and his team need to be more careful/forthright/transparent about who writes under their banner.
Both Collins’s speech and Adams’ article appeal to the latent racism that for the moment lies relatively undisturbed (“there but not there”) for many New Zealanders.
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| Pania Newton talking to tamariki |
Government has taken a shortcut in purchasing the land from Fletchers at Ihumātao and returning it to its mana whenua. When the Auditor-General called the deal 'unlawful' until validated by Parliament (RNZ) , National and ACT plunged in. But as MartynBradbury in The Daily Blog points out, National’s own past deals leave much to be desired — and they had nothing to do with putting a past wrong right. Ihumātao was wrongfully confiscated from Ngāti Whatua in 1863 and then sold to a Pākehā farmer whose family kept it before selling to Fletchers. Click here to read what Wikipedia wrote about the site.
Speculation about the National Party’s leadership has died down, after a fortnight of rumours and overt positioning by supposed challengers to Judith Collins. She lives on as leader for a bit longer, and Christopher Luxon and Simon Bridges have been put in their place. National now desperately needs to focus on the more substantial issues in rebuilding their party as an alternative to Labour.
The PM did not ask to be interviewed. She was invited by the Newtalk ZB producers, but employee Hosking said if she isn't willing to do his regular slot, he doesn't want her at all.
She "doesn't add anything" to the progamme. Putting words into his listeners' mouths (and assuming they agree), he asks:
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