Poll shows Fiji Election Outcome Foregone Conclusion--but not if Rabuka and Prasad are right

Razor-Fii Sun poll 6 October       pn118

Most changes between the latest Razor-Fiji Sun poll published on 6 October and the previous poll are small and not statistically significant because they could be due to sampling error.  If the poll is even close to accurate, the election results are a foregone conclusion. Fiji First will win.  

But not if SODELPA's Rabuka and NFP's Prasad  aren't daydreaming. (See AUT's Pacific Media Centre journalist interviews at the end of the posting.) 

If you've missed it, scroll down to the Weekend Reading 
(♦ Fiji's New Diplomacy ♦ Why the Roadmap Pt II) and 

check out the new Quote for the Week in the right sidebar.

N0086. A LAUGH TO START THE WEEK. It seem that if Francis Kean becomes the new chairman of the FRU, his brother-in-law the Prime Minister may become the president (again.) I don't see why one position depends on the other but Michael Field says this is so, and we should never question Michael Field even though former FRU Board member Charlie Cousins says there is no other likely candidate so Frank may become president with no thanks to his brother-in-law.

Frank certainly wants to be at the World Cup to be held in NZ, whether or not he's the president, but if both he and his brother-in-law are respectively appointed president and chairman, the IRB will pay both their expenses to New Zealand. There's only one hitch.

Sir Lancelot, the NZ Foreign Minister (and shadow Minister for Border Security) Murray McCully, says not over his dead body. New Zealand is a sovereign nation and there are travel bans against the likes of you two.

The Field scoop seems to be just another example of a journalist making the news, but McCully did miss one thing: Fiji is also a sovereign nation.

N0087. FIJI TIMES. Australian Brian O’Flaherty  has replaced Dallas Swinstead as the  General Manager of the Fiji Times. He is a former News Ltd employee and a former publisher of the Fiji Times. His wife Adrienne was also a journalist. The O'Flaherty's  know Fiji well having lived and worked here during the 1990s in the period leading up to 1997 Constitution under former PM Sitiveni Rabuka.

N0088. LABOUR SLAMS COUP 4.5 MISCHIEF. An article in the Fiji Labour Party website  has slammed as "mischievous lies a report in the Coup 4.5 blog that Mahendra Chaudhry and Felix Anthony are organising a protest march for next month."  The report continued:

"This is yet another example of baseless and malicious reporting by Coup 4.5. The integrity and credibility of this blog has already been seriously undermined by false reporting in the past.

“It is pure fabrication. I want to ask Coup 4.5 and their collaborators who are political detractors of the Fiji Labour Party (and whose identities we are clearly aware of), when are they going to desist from such malicious propaganda against the FLP leadership?” asked FLP’s assistant secretary-general Lekh Ram Vayeshnoi.

N0089. NEW TOURISM RECORD. For the very first time ever annual tourist arrival numbers have exceeded the magical 600,000 mark, nearly 78,000 more than last year's record. Tourism Minister Aiyaz Sayed Khaiyum said Tourism Fiji will have its work cut out to maintain and grow these numbers but he thought it could be done with good marketing strategies and alliances.

The industry also now needs to concentrate on on developing quality tourist shopping and other local ancillary services and, with Government help, establish a data base for better synergies and hotel intelligence. More attention also needs to be given to emerging markets such as India and China. One thing the Minister did not mention was the possible effects of the Queensland floods on the Fiji industry.

N0090. NEW REGIONAL HQ IN SUVA. Last year it was all about moving regional headquarters from Fiji though none were moved. This year starts with the Center for the Development of Enterprise (CDE) that will soon set up its  Pacific headquarters in Suva. This was announced on Friday by Foreign Minister Ratu Inoke Kubuabola and visiting CDE Director Mr Jean-Eric Romagne and the Head for the CDE Pacific office to be based in Suva, Mr Jean-Pierre Mathey. -- Based on 2011, No: 0240 /MOI.

The CDE is an ACP (African, Caribbean and Pacific)/EU joint institution created in the framework of the Cotonou Agreement and its finances mainly come from the European Development Fund (EDF). Its objective is to ensure the development of professional ACP enterprises operating in the private sector. CDE provides non-financial services to ACP companies and to joint initiatives of ACP and EU economic operators in various economic sectors, with the main aim to increase competitiveness of ACP enterprises.

N0091.ALLEGED MURDERER BACK IN NZ. Devesh Shama, accused of murdering his wife Ranjeeta, was charged with murder in the Hamilton District Court on Saturday. Extradicton from Fiji was unnecessary as he returned voluntarily to NZ following his arrest by Fji Police. His 4-year old son Akesk is being cared for by NZ welfare authorities as Akesh has no close relatives in New Zealand.

Blog Lies and Trash, Fiji Sympathy on Mine Disaster, Citizenship Education, Teachers Trilingual, Vengeance Advice, Bua Chip Mill, First Report on Budget

WEEKEND READING.

I hope to have more on the Budget and the Government's previous notice to delay minimum wage increases for a further six months over the weekend or early next week.

♦ Allen Lockington column 

♦ Why the West Is Losing the Pacific to China, the Arab League, and Just About Everyone Els

♦  Fr Kevin Barr on the Wages Councils

 ♦ Why We Need Good Leaders by Sudarsan Kant

PM NOT ILL, DYING OR DEAD: JUST LIES.  CoupFourPointFive continues with its claims the PM collapsed, was shaking, suffered a stroke, went to China for treatment and not to meet with investors, was hospitalised, looked unwell. 

My information is the PM did NOT collapse at the airport. He did not go to China for heart surgery.  He did not have a stroke. His heart is fine. He  had no stroke. My informant spoke with him several times while he was in China where he did meet investors, and he has arrived back in Fiji this morning, suffering from nothing worse than jet lag.

FIJI LABOUR PARTY ON COUPFOURPOINTFIVE "TRASH". This blog has previously commented on the recent sharp decline in the quality of reporting by CoupFourPointFive. It is now joined by the FLP spokesman Lekh Ram Vayeshnoi who writes:

"It seems Coup Four Point Five is trying to detract attention from its own failings and inaccuracies by reverting to Chaudhry bashing again. The blogsite is becoming quite notorious for its sensational and false reporting and we have had occasion to point this out before.

"Its latest attempt to discredit Labour Leader Mahendra Chaudhry is yet another bit of malicious propaganda which actually fails to live up to its promo to shed sensational new light on the Chaudhry tax case. The matter is now before the courts as Coup Four Point Five should well know and is subjudice. But such legalities don’t seem to matter to the blog when it comes to maligning certain people.

"The writers well know that the issues highlighted on the blog are the very same as those raised in a frenzied media hype some three years ago which had led to the appointment of an independent inquiry by the interim government. The inquiry cleared Mr Chaudhry of all the allegations. The findings of the inquiry were accepted by the interim government as acknowledged in a letter from the Prime Minister to Mr Chaudhry and as stated in a media release issued by the interim Attorney General.

"It is shameful that the attacks on the Coup Four Point Five blog continue to be launched in a most cowardly manner under the protection of anonymity. Nonetheless, we are well aware of the identity of those writing such crap, and what has prompted this sudden switch to Chaudhry bashing.Let me assure our detractors, that they gain nothing by their attempts to malign and discredit the Labour Leader where it really counts. His respect and support remain intact."

FIJI EXPRESSES SYMPATHY TO NZ. The Government and the people of the Republic of Fiji are deeply saddened by the loss of 29 brave miners in the Pike River mine explosion said the Minister for Foreign Affairs Ratu Inoke Kubuabola in his letter to the Minister for Foreign Affairs of New Zealand Mr Murray McCully following the death of 29 mine workers.

 “Our heartfelt condolences goes out to the families and loved ones of the trapped miners and to the nation of New Zealand as you come to terms with the tragic loss,” he said in his letter. "Our prayers and thoughts are with you.”  -- 25/11/10 No.2002/MOI.  [The mining disaster is the worst in New Zealand history.]

CITIZENSHIP EDUCATION PROGRESS. Earlier this month the team from the Ministry of Education's Citizenship Education Project  conducted workshops for Head Teachers and Classes 3-4 teachers throughout the country. The workshops were part of the process involved in developing Citizenship Education teaching resources for primary schools. Classes 3-4 material is now at the National Implementation Phase where teachers are trained on how to integrate the CE programme into the teaching and learning programme and in the school culture as a whole.

Teaching resources have already been drafted for Classes 5- 8 and Forms 3-7, and are at varying stages of pre-testing, trialing and piloting in selected primary and secondary schools around the country.

During the workshops, there was a rousing response from all the Head teachers and teachers who felt the programme was long overdue and needed the support of everyone. Many felt the programme provided a clearer vision and direction for teaching and learning that was meaningful for teachers and students. -- Based on 4th 2010, No:1835/MOE.

TEACHERS TO BE TRILINGUAL. FNU Vice-Chancellor Dr Ganesh Chand is  interviewed on what ABC called bilingualism. They forgot English. In future all  new teachers will be required to speak Fijian, Hindi and English.

VENGEANCE IS MINE. I am increasingly disturbed by the number of threatening comments on this blog and on the anti-government blogs that advocate violence and warn those supporting the Bainimarama government (and even those sitting on the fence)  of retribution.  I would remind those who make such comments, if they are Christian, to re-read the Holy Bible.  In Romans 12:19 it is written:

"Dearly beloved, avenge not yourselves, but rather give place unto wrath: for it is written, Vengeance is mine; I will repay, saith the Lord." 

Similar advice is given in Deuteronomy 32:35 and Hebrews 10:30. 


WAIRIKI PINE CHIP MILL, BUA. Fiji Pine Ltd reports a five-year contract with NZ's chipping company Pederson Group to manage the Bua mill where a first shipment of pine chips valued between $3m to $5m is expected to be exported by April next year.  Board chairman Ratu Tevita Uluilakeba says thadt when the mill is upgraded and exports commence the “Benefits to the local community [will be] enormous because they will be involved and there will be employment opportunities at the mills.”-- Based on 25/11/10, No. 1993/MOI.

FIRST REPORT ON 2011 NATIONAL BUDGET. Attorney General and Acting Minister for Finance Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum has delivered the 2011 National Budget Address.

The budget has a total revenue of $1745.7 billion against an expenditure of $1961.7 billion, leaving a deficit of $216 million. Capital expenditure has been set at $526m with much of this also going towards the sugar industry.

On the much talked about $150m bond debt that matures next year Sayed-Khaiyum announced that Singapore and Hong Kong-based brokers are acting on government’s behalf to refinance the bond.

"The US $150 m global bond raised in early 2006 is due for payment in September next year. Fund members based in Singapore and Hong Kong have been identified as government t international brokers to manage the refinancing of this global bond. Part of next year’s debt is expected to be financed through this global bond roll over. This strategy will release limited reserves in the domestic financial market for private sector investments and supplies."

On the sugar industry Sayed-Khaiyum reaffirmed government’s commitment saying 200,000 people or almost 20 per cent of Fiji citizens rely on the sector for their livelihood. He announced strict cost cutting measures and reforms for the Fiji Sugar Corporation and says government will work with development partners for technical assistance. The total allocation towards the sugar industry came to $123 m.

“An appropriate provision of a $110m has been allocated in the 2011 budget to support FSC - which will have an impact on the sugar industry as a whole. In addition $6m has been allocated for cane replanting, $1m for cane quality payment, $5m to South Pacific Fertilizers and $1.5m for the Committee for Better Utilization of Land, in total $123m has been allocated for the support of the sugar industry.”

On socio-economic and poverty alleviation issues – government announced a host of policies aimed at supporting the vulnerable in the community. This includes support to 10,000 new recipients of the family assistance scheme.

“In 2011 we have allocated an addition of $3.6m to issue food vouchers of $30 a month to 10,000  new recipients. Within this schemes based on the means test - the elderly over 70 years of age who are currently not receiving any form of government assistance, pregnant mothers who are currently falling outside of the eligibility for receiving family assistance allowance and disadvantaged family and school children will be eligible. The Ministry of Strategic Planning will release final details of this scheme before Christmas.”

Government has also allocated $10m housing assistance for first time home owners – a policy that was introduced last year but could not be implemented due to the effects of Cyclone Tomas and the Operation Kadivuka campaign.

A 3% increase on alcohol and tobacco products has been imposed.

The Fiji Judiciary received an increase of $5m dollars for next year’s budget. Government says the increase will help facilitate and improve service delivery within the judicial system.

“The judiciary has been increased by $5m from $11m to $16m in the 2011 budget to cover for the full operations of the staffing of the judiciary. This is in view of the new appointments of the magistrates and judges in particular. Increases have also effected into the budget of the AG’s chambers and the DPP’s office to improve service delivery. Grant to the legal Aid Commission has been increased from $.6m to $.8m. This is very important for the access to justice.”

Allocation for the Fiji Independent Commission Against Corruption has also increased.

A notable absence was the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Fiji Sada Reddy. FBC News was informed that Mr. Reddy is on leave.

Prime Minister Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama was on his way from Nadi to Suva when the budget address was delivered. Bainimarama has just returned from a two week trip to China, meeting industry and business leaders there.

The Theft, Wage Cuts, Chaudhry Takes on Government, the PER Regulations

WEEKEND READING. Allen Lockington's column, Michael Field on easing sanctions, Bainimarama on losing opportunity.

"PROUD FIJIAN" has just left this comment on the post about the the $½million theft. "Just saw a picture of the $20 note with the serial number starting with EB. The note was apparently presented by an Australian tourist who had received the note from Currency Exchange in Sydney." If the serial number is between 450,000 and 500,000, that's one of them. Only another 25,999 to go.

WORKERS WAGES TO BE CUT BY 15%? The Fiji Trade Union Congress is calling on the Fiji Sugar Corporation to enter into negotiations over a proposed pay cut for workers in the industry. The Corporation has announced a 15% pay cut across the board but the TUC says no discussions have taken place despite existing agreements with unions to enter into talks prior to any salary reduction.General Secretary  Felix Anthony says the Corporation’s plans are unfair as employees should not be held responsible for its cashflow problems brought on by recent mill upgrades. He has requested an urgent meeting with the FSC.

Chaudhry takes on Government

 Opinion by Croz Walsh

Mahendra Chaudhry's place in Fiji history is assured by the many roles he has played but how he is remembered will depend on which side you are on. It's hard to remain neutral about Mahendra Chaudhry.

Trade Union leader working on behalf of sugarcane farmers, leader of the Fiji Labour Party, Prime Minister of Fiji, brave hostage of George Speight, the real leader of the parliamentary opposition, short-term Minister of Finance in Bainimarama Governnment, protector of the poor, defender of his undisclosed Australian bank account, prominent Bainimarama opponent (phew!) ... the "Man" has now upped the ante by his almost daily anti-government releases on the FLP website and in the mainstream media. So much so that other media outlets have questioned whether Sharon Smith John's Information (and censorship) office is doing its job. One wonders why the cunning old fox has chosen now to intensify the attack. No one should ever under-estimate Mahendra Chaudhry.

He has been a constant critic of Government's efforts to de-politicise and improve the long-suffering sugar industry, although he's understandably shy about his own role in politicising the industry and contributing to its decline.  In a Fiji Times article published yesterday he blames sugar's problems on the  "ineptitude and inefficiency of the Fiji Sugar Corporation management ... We lost $100million last year because of the FSC’s incompetence and this year we will most probably see the worst-ever result in the history of the sugar industry in the country.” Here are extracts from the statement he made to the Fiji Times. Hear him out ...

“Farmers in the sugar industry are incurring unnecessary expenditure and losses because of the continued incompetence of the FSC management.

“While farmers are going through unprecedented difficult times and hardships, the FSC and the Government have resorted to having a series of meetings. Meetings will not resolve issues facing the industry. Close to 200,000 people’s livelihoods depend on the sugar industry and something concrete needs to be done because the sugar industry is going down the tube.”

I cannot speak on the inefficiency or otherwise of the FSC management, and there's no doubt there are major problems in the sugar industry,  but it didn't require much thought to work out how Mahendra's criticism would be received. The anti-government blog Fiji Today was quick off the mark with the  headline "Mahendra Chaudhry Continues the Fight in the Fiji Times" -- and they were not limiting his  "fight" to the sugar industry.

If Mahendra  is as concerned about the sugar industry as his own political future, Fijians would like to hear more concrete statements from him than "something concrete needs to be done." They'd want to hear what, and how he's going to help -- other than calling meetings and talking to the press. Some 200,000 people’s livelihoods could also depend on his answer.

The sad thing for Fiji is that too many of its more able people, people like Mahendra possessed of intelligence, ability, experience and support from large sections of the public, for reasons of principle, self-interest or a mix of both, continue to oppose Government in ways that cause it not to re-open the dialogue that is needed to implement the reforms political needed for a fair Fiji.

Such opposition plays into the hands of those in the Military Council who may not be as enthusiastic as the PM to return Fiji to parliamentary rule in 2014. And with every lurch to totalitarianism, Government's internal Opposition takes fresh heart, and the international community, that Fiji so desperately needs to help its economic recovery, trusts Government's stated intentions even less.

If Mahendra and others like him want to help Fiji's recovery, they need to be part of the solution, not part of the problem. It will take a while to restore trust between the Mahendra's and the PM (and, indeed, it may never happen) but positive, less accusatory, criticism would help, and require a measured response.  He  still has a choice to spin, or to break, the existing vicious circle of mistrust. How he chooses could define his ultimate place in history.

MOI CLARIFIES CHAUDHRY SITUATION. In reply to media enquiries as to whether the Fiji Labour Party’s (FL) website, which has been issuing daily press releases, will be subjected to censorship, Permanent Secretary for Information, Sharon Smith Johns said: “All media outlets must comply with the provisions of the Media Industry Decree 2010 as well as the Public Emergency Regulation (PER) provisions relating to the media as captured under Section of 16.”  Ms Smith-Johns added that Government has been working on forging a better partnership with media organizations to move the country forward and has been able to achieve considerable success in this regard. She said, “Most media organizations have responded favorably to the call for responsible and accurate reporting as they acknowledge that the media can play a constructive role in nation building.”-- Based on 2010 No:1416/MOI. See the MOI letter sent to the FLP. Click to enlarge.

MORE DETAIL FROM MOI.  This from the Permanent Secretary of Information: "Currently we are still under the PER (see section 16) below.

Section 16 -(1) – Where the Permanent Secretary for Information has reason to believe that any broadcast or publication may give rise to disorder and may thereby cause undue demands to be made upon the police or the Armed Forces, or may result in a breach of the peace, or promote disaffection or public alarm, or undermine the Government and the State of Fiji,  he or she, by order, prohibit such broadcast or publication.

(2) In order to give effect to subsection (1) above any broadcaster or publisher upon direction by the Permanent Secretary for Information must submit to him or her all material for broadcast or publication material before broadcast or publication.

The Media Decree is also in force which explains to publishers or broadcasters the requirements needed. For instance Part 4 –Content Regulation of the Media Decree states

23. The content of any print media which is in excess of 50 words must include a byline and wherever practical the content of any other media service must include a byline.

The Ministry of Information is working with publishers and broadcasters in assisting them meet the requirement in this transitional period, it is better to advise and work with the media at a time like this, which is what has been done with the FLP web site.  The Ministry met with the FLP today and came to an amicable agreement with regards to the content on the web site."

Ed. note: I think the arguments in favour of lifting PER far outweigh the reasons for keeping them in place  but Mahendra Chaudhry knew what they were and chose to ignore them.

Australian Meddling Part of Agenda to Dominate Fiji

Tom Orsag 

in Solidarity

Radio New Zealand International Stands Accused

On June 9th I published a response to an item in Coupfourpointfive, taken from the Fiji Labour Party website, in which the FLP held the Bainimarama Government responsible for Fiji's economic woes. In my response I agreed political uncertainty was a factor but pointed to other causes including the poor state of the economy prior to the 2006 Coup, the need to borrow to repair a long-neglected infrastructure, the global recession, the effect of sanctions and travel bans, and major floods and a hurricane. 

The FLP responded on the 17th by stating that the "root cause of our fast declining economy is the refusal of the regime to enter into inclusive political dialogue to chalk out an acceptable roadmap back to elections and constitutional rule within an agreed time frame - well before 2014 announced by Commodore Bainimarama."  I reported this response in full. See  "FLP Fiddles" below.

It is interesting to see what happened next because it provides a further insight into the misuse of "media freedom" in New Zealand.

Radio NZ International read the FLP website, and reported, under the heading "Fiji Labour Party paints gloomy picture of economy," on all the negative things mentioned by the Bainimarama government's political opponent  -- "galloping" inflation, the "looming" inability to repay loans, the lack of investment due to "intimidation, raids, threats and harassment  [that] have become the order of the day" -- but they did not report anything on my comments to which the FLP article was a response. The one thing conceded by the FLP and Radio NZI was that the economy was in trouble before the 2006 Coup, but that of course was Chaudhry's dig at his political opponents in the SDL Government.

I have one important question for RadioNZI (whose costs I help to pay as a NZ taxpayer): Why use the website of a political party known to be hostile to the Bainimarama government as the sole source of your information; skip over the fact that the website was responding to my blog, and then expose yourselves to accusations of biased reporting by not reporting the points raised in my blog to which the FLP was responding?

Don't tell me you don't use blogs because they are anonymous and their information cannot be independently verified. My blog does not fit either description.

Public Service Reforms, Monitoring Charter Progress, FLP Fiddles

(G) MAJOR CHANGES TO PUBLIC SERVICE. The PM  admits government plans to progressively outsource many activities presently undertaken by the public sector could see job losses, but he hopes  that many workers made redundant will be absorbed by companies taking up government works.

An Outsourcing Policy is being developed for the whole of the civil service as part of Government's institutional reform agenda. This will help to reduce operating expenditure; make available more resources for essential capital expenditure, and encourage private investment for growth in jobs and income.

The PM  has asked the Public Service Commission to conduct wide ranging consultations across the civil service in the development of the Outsourcing Policy, and identify priority areas for outsourcing and implications on staffing. My understanding is that the Public Service Association is not being consulted about these changes; previous PSC efforts to engage the Association having failed.

(G) CHARTER IMPLEMENTATION ON TRACK. A first quarter audit of 21 Ministries and two Departments by the Strategic Framework for Change Coordinating Office shows that the implementation of the eleven pillars of the People's Charter for Change, Peace and Progress (PCCP) has been well received by Ministries and Department. Ministries behind in their work will be closely monitored in the second and third quarter. The report recommended that Government ministries place more emphasis on implementing policies related to the Pillars of the Charter.

(G) MONITORING PROGRESS ON PEOPLE'S CHARTER. At the fourth meeting of the National People’s Charter Advisory Council, Chairman Josefa Serulagilagi said Permanent Secrataries have been asked to report on progress on the Eleven Pillar, noting areas of concern in order to identify aspects of the Charter Pillars which could have fallen through the cracks or have been neglected.

Serulagilagi raised concern about NPCAC resources. He thought they were stretched "too wide and thin."  The Council needed to more carefully define and refocus deliberations and work activities and confine itself, at this stage of its work, to monitoring the work of government.”

The NPCAC is divided into three sub-groups dealing with: Growing the Economy, Social and Cultural Issues, and Good Governance. Their priority area until 2012 is working with growing the economy and social and cultural issues, after which focus will be on good governance until elections in 2014.

NZ JOURNALISTS HAVE PARLIAMENT PASSES CANCELLLED. Journalists sometimes overstep the mark  as events at the Beehive showed last week. One presumes that in pursuing the MP they were pursuing the "public's right to know," an argument also used by Fiji's media. But here, and there, there are limits that should not be crossed by responsible journalists.
    
FIJI LABOUR PARTY FIDDLES WHILE FIJI BURNS was a thought that came to mind when I read the following on the FLP website.  A little unkind perhaps but the FLP's insistence on what is not going to happen ("inclusive" dialogue, an "acceptable" roadmap, and elections before 2014) seems unrealistic and unhelpful in the present circumstances.  And phrases like "all right thinking people ... the plain truth ...it is foolish talk" infer that those holding contrary opinions are wrong-thinking, untruthful and foolish -- which is hardly a good starting point for the inclusive dialogue they say they want.

(o) Sugar: NFU Double Take or Censored Report?

 In Wednesday's Short Briefs I provided a link to National Farmers Union president Sanjeet Maharaj saying the Union supported the goverment. "This," he said, "was probably the first time for a prime minister to have an open forum with the people of Rakiraki to freely discuss sugar industry issues." Maharaj said the NFU has been "supporting the government right from the first day [and] have confidence in the government to resolve the issue of land leases and other problems facing the sugar industry."

These opinions are apparently not shared by the NFU leaders, according to an unsigned or attributed NFU posting on the Fiji Labour Party's website. 

Whether this represents a divided leadership, pressure by the FLP (former PM Mahrendra Chaudhry's FLP is a major force within the Union, and a reason Bainimarama has given to "de-politicize" farmer representation. See below), or whether Maharaj chose his words carefully -- and the state censors even more carefully -- we cannot know.  But it is clear the NFU has problems with the RadioFiji's report. Click link for the full statement.

The statement said cane growers had been marginalized, in an industry in which they have a 70 percent stake, due to the dissolution of the Sugar Commission, the Fiji Sugar Marketing Ltd and the Sugar Cane Growers Council, actions over which they had not been consulted. "Growers have thus been left defenceless and completely at the mercy of the State and a failed Fiji Sugar Corporation. None of these moves are likely to promote goodwill and cooperation within the industry."

The statement also questioned policies and actions claimed to have contributed to sugar's worst year ever and intimidation of growers and NFU officials by the army. It concluded with, "As for the interim government’s intention to revive the sugar industry, there has been a lot of rhetoric but little to show for it on the ground."

See also PM on sugar and politics. Link.

Chaudhry's FLP on the Commonwealth Suspension, But Where's the FLP's"Road Map"?

The Fiji Labour Party website reveals something of Mahendra Chaudhry's thinking. He sees Fiji's Commonwealth expulsion as regrettable (but is heartened it will remain engaged in seeking an early return to constitutional rule); largely symbolic (because little technical aid is involved, although Fiji's young people will miss out on the Delhi Games) -- but it does send a "clear message" to Bainimarama to reconvene the President’s Political Dialogue Forum and hold elections by October next year.

In awaiting the arrival of the Commonwealth special representative, Sir Paul Reeves, this week, Chaudhry lists the things the Government needs to do: include the SDL and FLP in discussions; reconvene the PPDF; and re-examine its roadmap.

He has no list of the things his party (and the SDL) need to do. Which is a pity because positive FLP (and SDL) roadmaps just might produce a positive Bainimarama response. The FLP and the SDL need to spell out what they have learnt from the past six years, and what they plan to do to correct the situation that led to Bainimamama's ascendancy and the 2006 Coup.

If they don't, they could find themselves excluded from discussions with Sir Paul, and from the PPDF, and that would not be good for Fiji. Constructive dialogue requires concessions by BOTH sides. Unfortunately, for the moment, Chaudhry's vision of the future seems to be a return to the past. Illustration: FLP logo.

(o+) Would the Real Mahendra Chaudhry Please Stand Up

It's difficult to gauge Mahendra Chaudhry.

Ousted Labour-led Government Prime Minister. Brave and defiant prisoner of the Speight coup.
Opponent then colleague in the Qarase's SDL-led government. Fierce advocate for cane farmers or obstructionist in the sugar industry. Banker for displaced Indo-Fijian refuges, or tax evader and shady banker for himself. Supporter of Bainimarama's People's Charter, briefly minister in the Bainimarama Government, and now -- apparently-- compatriot of Qarase (two people who once were barely civil to each other). Once denied entry to Australia and now mysteriously admitted, with no explanation.

Martyr and people's advocate? Self-serving and two-faced opportunist? Pragmatist, realist, survivor? Who knows? But there's no questioning he's an important wild card in Fiji's deck of cards.

With these thoughts in mind, I read the FLP website release, initiated no doubt by the great enigma himself. The proposals are sound, except possibly for their timing and the insistence that all initiatives should come from Government; it's just that you're left unsure about their motivation. The old saying "I cannot believe a word you say, for what you are is speaking louder still" comes to mind -- but what is he? The word "restoration" in the "restoration of democracy" line also raises suspicions. Restoration to the race-based communal electorates that ensured him earlier election successes, or "restoration" used loosely to encompass elections but only after electoral reforms?


To read the Fiji Labour Party release, entitled Lift Emergency Rule and Talk, click here.

My sincere apologies to Prof. Wadan Narsey....

.... for publishing incorrect comments on his Niukula lecture (post 28 April, The Horrifying Consequences of the Coup.) He is not, as I reported, "a long-standing NFP supporter or an opponent of FLP." Quite the contrary. He was a founding member of the FLP but left the party prior to the 1987 election, due to policy differences. He was a NFP MP from 1996-99, having stood unopposed on the NFP ticket, but as a joint candidate with the FLP. Since 1999 he has had no political affiliation. My reference to his brother-in-law Brij Lal might have suggested to readers that he supports the 1997 Constitution because of this relationship. This is not the case. He thought, and still thinks, the Alternative Vote electoral system advocated by the Reeves Commission, and later included in the 1997 Constitution, to be "disastrous for Fiji." Readers may read more of Wadan's views on electoral systems, coups and the economy on the USP website.

(o) Elections Impossible this Year

Fiji Labour Party leader Mahendra Chaudhry says there is no way the general elections can be held this year.He said given the time needed to prepare and addressing issues in the electoral reform, elections were impossible. Chaudhry said this had been made known to the international community.

He said it was therefore vital to proceed quickly to the President’s Political Dialogue Forum (PPDF) which would consider issues revolving around holding elections and the return of an elected parliament. He said the UN and Commonwealth had talked with political parties, a mediator for the PPDF had been named. This showed Fiji was working progressively towards democracy. Asked if the FLP would support changes in the Constitution, Chaudhry said this was where the PPDF was necessary as all parties concerned needed to reach an amicable agreement on what changes, if any, were to be made to the Constitution.

With regards to fears of suspension from the Pacific Islands Forum, Chaudhry said all parties, locally and abroad, needed to hold more dialogue and be more understanding of each other's position. He said suspension could be avoided with more understanding on both sides. This was why it was important that the PPDF convened as soon as possible. Condensed from FijiLive. [Later in the week I shall post extracts from the Office of the Supervisor of Elections' White Paper that show it is indeed technically impossible to hold an election by December.]

(o) Chaudhry, the FLP, Sugar, the Economy, and the Interim Government.

Rumours circulating during the week, heightened by a meeting with Bainimarama, had Mahendra Chaudhry returning to the Interim Government as Minister of Finance and Sugar, possibly accompanied by other FLP members. This prospect, however, may be judged premature if discussion at the FLP national committee meeting at Nadi are any indication.

The meeting was critical of Government's "commercial" decision to dissolve the Sugar Commission, Sugar Marketing Ltd and the Sugar Research Institute, transferring their responsibilities to the Fiji Sugar Corporation (FSC). Chaudhry thought FSC dominance could marginalise the growers to whom 70% of sugar proceeds belonged, stating that the Sugar Cane Growers Council (SCGC) should play the lead role in marketing sugar. He called on Government to hasten the completion of the sugar industry reform and restructure programme, and to invest heavily in the natural resources sector to boost exports and create much needed employment.

The Party also cautioned Government against letting "vested interests" dictate its economic policies, following comments by Reserve Bank governor Savenaca Narube about rapidly declining foreign reserve levels, falling exports, tight liquidity and escalating interest rates.

Chaudhry compared this situation (brought on, in part, by the RBF's relaxed monetary controls and the consequent outflow of local funds), with "six months ago when foreign reserves stood at $910 million, liquidity was flush, interest rates low, investment levels rising, exports upped 33% compared to 2006 and debt level brought down to 45% of GDP from a high of 53% under the Laisenia Qarase-led government."

Astute politician that he is, Chaudhry may decide to keep his distance from the Interim Government until he is clearer on which way the political cookie will crumble after next month's President's Political Dialogue Forum. But then, being Chaudhry, he may not. Condensed, with added comments, from the Fiji Times.