pn562. Tuesday, a second day of Mondayitis: Further reflections on the elections

         

The consensus among journalists seems to be that Labour will have difficulty in meeting the expectations of  (a) the former National supporters who voted for it and expect it to "do little" and (b) those Labour stalwarts who want at least some transformational change. 

With Jacinda saying she will govern for all New Zealanders, Labour seems to have signalled it will stay centre to right of centre, and probably won't enter into ANY formal agreement with the Greens. (I thought it instructive that former PM Helen Clarke, possibly as an advisory on the Greens, spoke of politics being about long term relationships. Not to strengthen the Labour-Greens relationship may bode poorly for Labour at future elections.)

pn561. Mondayitis: Doubts and Caution about Labour's "Transformational Changes"

UPDATE. Gordon Campbell   warns the Greens about being part of the government.

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With the 2020 election as good as over and only special votes to be announced in ten days time, many people with be wondering what substantial changes the Labour (or possible Labour-Greens-Maori party) government will make on environment, poverty and other issues.

I'm sorry to dampen your weekend good spirits with the Labour-Greens-Maori Party and Bledisloe Cup wins, but many in the media-ocracy are arguing: not much.

Here's extracts from what six columnists — David Hall, Martyn Bradbury, Danyl Mclauchlan, Chris Trotter, Jennifer Lees-Marshment and Max Rashbrooke —  think:

pn557.. Labour's Full Manifesto -- and the need for "deeper" prison reform

UPDATE. READ THE TURIKI REPORT ON WHICH NO ACTION WAS TAKEN.  Has Labour been afraid to act in case it gives National an opportunity to turn the election into a "crime and punishment"  election? 

 

I have just read the full NZ Labour Party manifesto. It covers almost everything I can think of and provides links to more detail on some issues.   It's essential reading for those of us who want to see where Labour is coming from and where it promises to go if it's  returned to government on Saturday.

National says Labour is a party of unfulfilled promises, repeating ad nauseum:  the plight of Kiwibuild and the Auckland rail link to its airport. Read the manifesto now and file the link to look at later to see whether Labour really does fulfil on its promises.

 The one issue I singled out for closer scrutiny was criminal offending and prison reform.  Few would question the actions proposed but there was, I think, one glaring omission: preparing prisoners for a life after prison; helping them— while they are still in prison—  to reintegrate with the wider community on their release and lead a useful life without reoffending. 

pn555.. The Latest Colmar Brunton Poll 8 October, and some comments on polls

 Have you ever noticed, when percentages are used in the print media in reporting political polls, that they almost never add up. 

I think this is due to three practices: 

1. only some of the results are published, 

2. Don't know/Refused to Answer are seldom published or included in totals, and 

3. the effects of "rounding.  

This would not happen if the media used tables to show percentages, and  if Colmar-Brunton which conduct polls for 1News and Reid for Newshub immediately released the poll. Instead, they wait 48 hours after the media has published the results.  

 So, use tables.  They would show the complete results, and in most cases be easier to understand than the efforts of journalists to report them in text alone. Here's a topical example Note especially note 2.

pn552.. Entertainment not Political Debates

 

Debate etiquette calls for adequate time to present an argument for both sides, limited interjections, no name calling and finger pointing, and appeals to fact not emotion. Both of our debates so far have broken these rules.  

And that's before mentioning the role of the TV organizers who, like the chair persons, should be impartial. But in the first TV1 debate the camera showed Judith Collins face-on speaking to you in the audience and Jacinda side-on in shadow speaking to someone off stage, and in the  TV3 debate Judith Collins had 18% more camera time.  What's that they say about one picture and a thousand words?

In both debates chair persons  John Campbell and Patrick Gower spoke  (after ad time is deducted)  for an incredible  20 and 30% of the time, and the "average uninterrupted speaking time in the TV3 debate was less than  10 seconds." (Mark Boyd, Stuff). The TV1 debate was a little better at 20 seconds, but who can possibly develop an argument in even that time? Sound bites, and one off lines, yes, but not a coherent argument about policy.

Interjections, name calling and finger pointing  were also over the odds. Judith Collins interjected 13 and 26 times in the two debates (I didn't count name calling and finger pointing) and Jacinda Ardern 6 and 14 times. The chair persons did nothing to restrain them, and the media applauded. They made the debates more entertaining —as if that is their purpose.

In the first debate Judith Collins was almost in tears when she spoke of the poverty her husband grew up in, and in the second of her brother-in-law being diagnosed with cancer.  Both comments were spposed to be in response to Labour's only partially successful promise to reduce child poverty, and impaired  medical access during Covid. 

She then  outdid herself yesterday by praying  in church on camera as she went to vote.

I hope the next two debates will be better. More likely, the public will be no better informed when they ended than they were when before they started.

Vote Mickey Mouse. Vote Alice in Wonderland. Vote Tarzan with his apes in the jungle. Vote Kiwi 2020. Our media is so fair and helpful!
 
-- ACW

Willie Jackson and Paula Bennett: Who is Maori?

pn372

I first published about race, ethnicity, Maori and Maori-Pakeha relations in 1970* when Willie Jackson was nine years old and Paula Bennett a toddler.  I noted then 49 years ago that 'race' was biological, 'ethnicity' a combination of race and culture or acquired learning, Maori were people who saw themselves as Maori, and Maori-Pakeha relations were far worse than most New Zealanders knew or cared.