Samoa and the Pros and Cons of Chinese Aid - Stewart Firth

UPDATE.  New Samoa-NZ Partnership Agreement. Click here.

Economics, Politics and Public Policy in East Asia and the Pacific

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China, Samoa and debt-for-equity swaps

1 January 2019

Author: Stewart Firth, ANU

Last year, Australia discovered the debt owed to Chinese banks by Pacific island countries. As the debate over China’s intentions in the region grew, commentators pointed to the possibility that Pacific countries might be compelled to accept debt-for-equity swaps if they could not repay. The port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka, where a Chinese company obtained a 99-year lease to run commercial operations in return for helping to pay the country’s debt, was the commonly raised example.

The Death Ship and a Cannon over Parihaka: two Anniversaries

The death ship SS Tulane pn163

 Yesterday (Tuesday) was the 100th anniversary of the arrival in Samoa of the NZ ship SS Talune that introduced pneumonic influenza, killing 8,600 people, 25% of the population, in eight weeks. In Fiji and Tonga between 5-10% of the population died.

Samoa: New Elections Database

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This is a most incredible research resource — and an eye-opener for the merely curious. An interactive and downloadable  database that records and analyses all 15 Samoan election results from 1964, two years after Independence, to the most recent in 2016. 

Pacific Islands Weekly 24 October: Fiji, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Israel, NZ, China, Japan

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Taxi owner supports FijiFirst. The owner of one of Fiji’s largest fleet of taxis has  vowed to use its vehicles to help the FijiFirst party in its campaign. Tiko Kece base owner Ratu Lomaca Baleilevuka said the reason was that the Government had assisted them with the issuing of taxi permits. Hum!!

Dr Wadan Narsey, in my opinion, rightly,   questions a situation where Board members of Fiji's largest financial entity, the Fiji  National Provident Fund, are all appointed by Government, which is also the largest borrower from the fund (about $2B.) Worker representation was abolished in 2014. (This suggests insufficient safeguards. -Ed.)

Ro Filipe for death penalty. Chiefly SODELPA candidate

Oscar Kightley on the Cultural History of Samoan Tattooiong

Courtesy, JunoTattooDesigns.com  pn141

Tatau is an extraordinary book tracing the painful rite of passage and art form that has endured for 3000 years.

The play began with a group of Samoan men, bare chested and wearing yellow lavalava, walking to the centre of the stage, laying down some mats and sitting down for a ritual that’s been practised continuously for thousands of years – traditional Samoan tatau.  Read more.

Pacific Islands Weekly: News from Tokelau, Tonga, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, PNG and Fiji

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Tokelau. NZ must mend relations in Tokelau

Tonga. Youth Parliament in Tonga

Samoa.  Small debtors should not be jailed: Samoa Law Society Vice-President

Solomon Is. Two former PM's to court for questionable $90m spend

Samoa PM's Speech on Pacific Perspectives

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Snippets/Breaking News is updated most days. Check it out in the right Sidebar
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With the Pacific Islands Forum now underway, how does Samoa's PM  Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi view the Pacific and its challenges? Here is his recent speech to Australia' s Lowy Institute.   Click here to listen or read.

Tuilaepa's Women; Bizarre Asylum Appeal; Xinhua in Fiji; Waste and Solar Energy Projects

N249.GOOD OL' TUILAEPA.  Samoa's PM  thinks he's got the right gender balance in his newly appointed cabinet. “We have two female members and 34 male members [in Parliament, and one woman in the 13-member cabinet]...That’s more than enough,” he said.

Meanwhile in the Fiji he so often criticises, the Minister of Women has confirmed that government departments will now be required to supply gender information in all personnel statistical data in order to better monitor progress towards gender equality.

N250. BIZARRE ASYLUM APPEAL. A Fiji Muslim applied for political asylum in the US in 1989 following the 1987 Rabuka coup. The case was deferred for 14 years when a court ordered his deportation on the grounds that conditions in Fiji had improved. That takes us to 2004.

He appealed, and last Friday, some eight years later, a federal judge said immigration officials hadn't considered evidence of the treatment of minorities since the 2006 coup. They had looked only at general conditions in Fiji, not the situation of someone who had been persecuted under a previous military regime. If they had conducted an up-to-date analysis, said the judge, there is a "reasonable likelihood" they would conclude that Ali would face persecution in Fiji. His case has been referred back to the immigration courts for further review.

Jannif Ali, the applicant, said the military forces that overthrew Fiji's government in 1987 had dealt harshly with Fijians of Indian descent.  He testified that a soldier had beaten him with a gun, military forces had vandalized and dynamited his home, and that ethnic Fijians had regularly thrown rocks at his family and car and threatened to rape his wife.

The court was told persecution of Indo-Fijians resumed after the 2000 coup but then receded but "the human rights situation deteriorated greatly" after the 2006 coup.

This should tell us something about how little American courts know about Fiji and how some emigrants use the appeal system to indefinitely extend their stay on false grounds. It is unlikely to be any different with most of those who have applied for political asylum in Australia.

N251. XINHUA, CHINA'S official press agency, now has  a press agency in Suva. The bureau will cover Fiji and nearby South Pacific island countries.  [The North is getting closer!]

N252.WASTE AND SOLAR ENERGY EFFICIENCIES. Two new energy developments will soon bring economic, environmental and social benefits.

The first, the waste-to-energy power plant under construction in Sigatoka will employ about 600 people in the construction phase and about 200 permanent positions in the factory and 4,000 indirectly when it is complete in three years time. "We are talking about rubbish pickers all around Fiji, in the outer islands and resorts. The whole of Fiji will feel the impact as we try and rid Fiji of this problem – rubbish,"  said i-Viti Disenergy Renewable Power Plant Company president Ratu Enesi Yavala.

The other is at Tavua where in three months time solar street lights will replace existing lighting. Fiji's first town, Levuka on the island of Ovalau, is likely to be next on the list. -- Based on No:0673/MOI.

Tuilaepa's Joke, Lift Part of PER, No Complaints to Human Rights Commission, Anon

Next N223. JOKE OF THE WEEK.  Radio NZI reports that a Samoan high chief and his family have been banished from their village for not voting for the village candidate endorsed by PM Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi.

PM Tuilaepa is reported the same day, also by Radio NZI, with these words of advice for Bainimarama:“If he goes back to the barracks and leaves the politicians to do what they are good at, then Fiji would be a better place to live.” He says "the Commodore should leave politics alone." We see what he means!

N224.  LIFT PART OF PER.  The Citizens' Constitutional Forum (CCF) has again called for the lifting of the public emergency regulations (PER) to allow the Media Industry Development Decree 2010 to be tested. CEO Rev Akuila Yabaki says PER results in "the muzzling of free speech and expression of opinion which will lead to the emergence of blog sites as the only resort for political opinion and news for the citizens, the state and political opinion makers ... A free, fair and open media without the constraints of censorship will  allow for freedom of expression for all citizens to debate issues reasonably and openly.”

At least one readers agree. She writes: "There is NO NEWS anywhere and my daily F$1.60 spent on purchasing the two newspapers is  almost money down the drain - really, they aren't worth reading; they get worse and worse by the week. NO-ONE knows what on earth is happening in the government (if anything is!)  and the Govt isn't saying. Worse though, is that no-one seems to ASK: so what hope is  there for "informed debate" on a national level before elections? Perhaps on numbers of  acres under dalo, or cost of a new hydro scheme ... but nothing of a 'national, Fiji-in-the-world' level."

I'm surprised Government does not lift that part of PER that applies to the media (and so allow the Media Decree to be tested) while keeping in place that part of PER that places limited on free assembly.  This is not to condone this aspect of PER but to recognize that there are people in Fiji who would resort to any measure to overthrow the government.

N225. FIJI HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION. The Commission says it is aware of recent media  reports and its staff are on the alert for complaints from victims of torture and abuse at the hands of the military but it hasn’t received any recent complaints of alleged abuse, detainment or intimidation. However, the Commission is investigating earlier complaints of brutality and ill-treatment by other members of the disciplined services.

The anti-government blog Fiji Today says the public has no confidence in the Fiji regime’s Human Rights Decree and the Fiji Human Rights Commission. I wouldn't presume to know what the public think.

N226. ANONYMOUS COMMENTS. Readers will see I now allow anonymous comments although I'd still prefer all readers commenting on posts to use their real name or a pseudonym because this makes the exchange of opinions easier.

The previous requirement has been relaxed because some readers keep changing their pseudonym (making them no different from anons) and because readers can now respond to individual postings by number (e.g., N201). All other previous requirements remain, namely: "Impolite comments, and comments that attack the person and not the argument,or are irrelevant, repetitive or unhelpful to further discussion will be DELETED. All genuine comments, of whatever political persuasion, will be published if they follow these rules."

Telling the PM, Corruption Deep-Rooted, Pacific Backs Fiji ACP Re-entry - Except Samoa, Rumour

WEEKEND READING. ♦ Allen Lockington column ♦ Why the Roadmap? Part III by Crosbie Walsh

N0106. PM TO LISTEN TO VILLAGERS' CONCERNS. The PM's  visited Ba earlier in the week to open the new road from Magodro in Ba to Nanoko Village, Navosa, commission the new solar system at Nubutautau Village, in the interior of Navosa, and listen to villagers. Commissioner Western Col Joeli Cawaki said they were expecting people from all nearby villages and tikina in the two provinces to raise their concerns with the PM, advise him on the constraints holding back increased agricultural production and tell him what they think can be done by the government to assist.

N0107. CORRUPTION IS DEEP-ROOTED. Government's "Clean Up" campaign, given as one reason for the 2006 coup, clearly has some way to go. When corruption and misuse of public office are deeply rooted in a country, it is a far harder task to uproot than Bainimarama first thought.

The  resignation this week of two Government-appointed Fijian Holdings Ltd executives, the Chairman and the CEO. would appear to be related to misuse of office and possible "double dipping."

 Government is carrying out proper assessments on the performance of the people appointed to statutory boards to ensure that they remain focused and address issues relating to corruption, fraud and abuse of office.    

An investigation is  also underway into  dealings by former executives and board members of a major Fijian company. The West-based construction company is alleged to have been awarded tenders to construct a port and sawmill as well as upgrade a supermarket owned and managed by subsidiaries of the major Fijian company. The allegation is that the company also did work on the homes and private businesses of the executives and board members for which they did not pay or had received a discount from the construction company. Investigations are continuing.

N0108. FIJI GETS PACIFIC BACKING. Seven Pacific countries belonging to the African, Caribbean and Pacific group which is supported by the European Union,  have pushed for the restoration of Fiji's full participation in future ACP meetings.

One Pacific delegate said that it was good to see some of the smaller countries speak up with strong and unconditional support for Fiji. Samoa was the sole dissenting voice, citing Fiji’s suspension from the Pacific Islands Forum as the reason it cannot be allowed back to ACP meetings, organised by the Forum’s secretariat.
Fiji’s participation at the ACP trade officials and ministers meeting in Apia this week has been made possible at the invitation of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community, of which Fiji remains a member.

N109. RUMOURS.  This interesting letter published by Fiji Today on rumour

Rakiraki, Land Leases, Fiji's Prisons, US Presence, Samoa Spat, EU and Sugar, Bruce Hill's "Viliame", Pacific Eye Clinic

WEEKEND READING. ♦ The Allen Lockington column ♦ Islands Business October Cover Story: Sugar ♦ Mosmi Bhim on Grassroots Citizenry, the Media and Democracy ♦ Engaging with Fiji by Sanjay Ramesh.

ALL PART OF THE ROADMAP: RAKIRAKI A NEW TOURIST DESTINATION? Recently gazetted a town, Rakiraki in Viti Levu's Northeast, aims at becoming a tourist destination, according to Town Council interim administrator, Ms Seini Vunivutu-Raiko. And it could well be when improvements to Kings Road are completed.  Rakiraki is about half way between Nadi and Suva on Kings Road, and a convenient stopover spot for a round-the-island tour or for visits to the nearby island of Nananu-i-Ra and other homely tourist resorts. The  town is the site of Fiji's smallest sugar mill, Penang.

Ms Vunivutu-Raiko says roads in the town will be improved next year at a cost of $100,000 and a special zone for tourism is being created on the town fringes. Consultations between the town, the Penang Mill and the Ra Chamber of Commerce should see other attractions to the package that resorts and hotels offer. When the town's 5,000 people and the population of its hinterland are taken together, Fiji's two major races are equally represented in the area, and this also has considerable tourism potential. -- Based on 2010 No:1808/MOI.

LAND LEASE REFORMS. The Strategic Framework for Change Coordinating Office is now focusing on land reforms to ensure a win-win  situation and equal benefits for both landlord and tenants. Click  here.

NZ AND FIJI PRISONS.  Hamilton Samuels worked in NZ prisons for 24 years. Visiting Fiji for the Marist Old Boys Reunion recently he said he was impressed with the Yellow Ribbon (forgiveness and second chance) programme for ex-offenders, the interaction of prison staff and prisoners (in New Zealand, we were not allowed to talk or shake hands with the prisoners) and the vocational and rehabilitative emphasis in Fiji's prisons. Click here for more information on the Yellow Ribbon Programme.

VIEWS ON US HEIGHTENED PRESENCE IN FIJI.  I said "US involvement may prompt the New Zealand government to change its actions on Fiji, but these changes are likely to be mostly hidden from view and only evident over time. Nothing is going to happen suddenly or dramatically.  New Zealand has dug itself a deep hole with its well meaning but ill-advised policies on Fiji, and it will take quite a time to dig itself out.” Click here.

SAMOA'S TSUNAMI MONEY.Questions  raised by NZTV presenter John Campbell about missing aid money could lead to legal action by Prime Minister Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi. NZ Foreign Minister McCully is satisfied all the money was spent wisely and doesn't want to know any more about it. It cannot escape notice that Tuilaepa is a strong supporter of NZ's position on Fiji and has constantly taken swipes at Bainimarama for his presumed abuse of power.

EU AND SUGAR. The $4.7 million EU fund allocation for the 2007/2008 cane planting program is expected to be fully utilized by the FSC by the end of the year.The balance of $500,000 from this allocation has now been given to the FSC and no further grant is expected from the EU after to the political situation.

The $4.2 million used so far has not been so fruitful as hoped, due to bad weather and the effects of cyclones over the last three years. The allocation of $6 million by Government ($1,000 per hectare) for the cane planting programme has helped growers get through this year.

PM BLAMES DIRTY POLITICS FOR SUGAR PLIGHT. Click here.

ON "By  Bruce Hill For Radio Australia."  Interviewed by Bruce Hill, "Viliame" says he fears for his life but then says if he's sent back to Fiji it's torture and prison, which if true is bad enough but it's not death. So he's become an overstayer dodging Australian authorities — and with the extra  publicity from the ABC programme he's probably improved his chances of being allowed to stay in Australia.

His story started a week or so back when Bruce interviewed him along with two others about ethnic Fijians wanting protection visas.  Viliame says people in Fiji would recognize his voice from this programme, and he's been told military officials had called his Fiji phone number and asked if he was at home. But PS for Information, Sharon Smith Johns, said no-one knows who he is or even cares. "We are simply not concerned with a handful of people in Australia who are seeking asylum or refugee status or whatever it might be," she says."We have bigger things to get on with. There is no persecution."

So we have Viliame stupidly airing his views  on an ABC programme, knowing full well that his voice would be recognized and — if he believes himself — that he would be in serious trouble in Fiji for speaking out against the Government there. And we have a callous Bruce Hill who interviewed him twice despite the fact that the consequences could — if he believes Viliame — be torture, imprisonment or even death. 

Meanwhile, hundreds of the de facto government's opponents, including deposed PM Laisenia Qarase and others far better known than "Viliame", walk free on the streets of Suva. 

Bruce, if you persist in broadcasting this sort of unsubstantiated nonsense, I'll have to conclude you are not as even-handed as you claim. Try balancing this report with something more substantial about Fiji. How about the following item for starters:

FIJI'S PACIFIC EYE CLINIC AWAITS OPENING. The Ministry of Health is optimistic that the new Pacific Eye Centre will open on November 30th as planned. The facility (which cost US$1.5 million was built with support from the Australian and New Zealand Governments and the Fiji School of Medicine) is a first for the South Pacific.  The clinic will have state of the art equipment, and  will be available for over eight million people in the Pacific region, many of whom are struggling with eyesight problems, or battle blindness on a daily basis, often because of diabetes.  Specialists in the field of optometrics will conduct training at the Centre and so start to address the region's chronic shortage of eye specialists. -- Based on 2010, No:1832/MOI.

Wanted Balance, Solutions Not Negatives, Rotuma-Tuvalu Trade, Wages, Sick Comments

AT LONG LAST, RAIN IN THE WEST.

WANTED: BALANCE, SOLUTIONS.  NOT WANTED: POSTERIORS, NEGATIVES. The Permanent Secretary for Information, Sharon Smith-Johns has refuted media reports made by Professor Warden Narsey on the state of Fiji’s economy and poverty levels.“He has contradicted his own figures, ignoring the positives and only discussing the negative,” Ms Smith-Johns said.

“Let’s look at his figures, Mr Narsey’s own data reveals that poverty in Fiji has indeed been reduced between the period 2002-03 to 2008-09.  However, in a recent interview he states that the future for the Fiji Economy looks extremely bleak and poverty looks set to rise further.” The Permanent Secretary said at the national level, poverty levels had fallen from 35 per cent to 31 per cent. 

Breaking this down into rural and urban, the urban poverty has declined from 28 per cent to 19 per cent a major reduction of 9 per cent, however in the rural areas poverty has raised from 40 per cent to 43 per cent an increase of 3 per cent.

“These people are quick to jump on the media bandwagon, however do they provide solutions or work with the Government. I don’t think so, it’s far too easy to sit behind a desk and look for all the negatives,” Ms Smith-Johns said. “Interesting enough Professor Narsey also acknowledges the lack of data between 2004 – 2007, which begs the question how can he possibly forecast the future of Fiji’s economy.
 
“It is only fair that the government’s achievements be honestly acknowledged by academics and other analysts. I urge us all to examine this with objectivity and balance and contribute to the development of the economy, rather than loiter around the fringe of its fundamentals.” -- 2010 No:1668/MOI.

ROTUMA-TUVALU TRADE UPDATE. The only approved trade at the moment is root crops, and the problem with fruit exports will soon be resolved with the installation of proper quarantine facilities on Rotuma. The only immediate problem is that Tuvalu may not be able to make a ship available due to the recent elections. A high temperature forced air plant to treat both fruits and vegetables awaits installation, and discussions are continuing between biosecurity officers from both countries for additional commodities to be included in the trade list. -- Based on 2010 No:1657/MOI. The trade is important for the food-limited Tuvalu atolls and for Rotuma whose exports until now have been limited by its remoteness from the remainder of Fiji. Rotuma is closer to Tuvalu than to Viti Levu.

BALANCING JUSTICE AND COMMONSENSE.  It's never easy looking at a glass from both ends. The Fuel Retailers Association wants government to remove price control from retail fuel prices, saying that if it does not pumps will switch to self service on the 20th, with a loss of 400 jobs.They say  price control and increasing costs have made it impossible for them to earn a reasonable rate of profit. The Consumer Council has urged the retailers to reconsider their decision and asks them to document their claim of a 10-20% drop in sales revenue.

In another story, the  15% wage increase, proposed by the Wages Council, could have a similar effect in today's economic climate, and perhaps should be introduced 5% at a time, as someone has suggested in a recent blog comment.  But then employers invariably claim they cannot pay better wages, and they are shy about telling the public what they consider a "reasonable rate of profit," a profit made possible by both capital and labour. Perhaps some profit-sharing with labour based on audited productivity may be the way to go?

SICK, DELUDED COMMENTS. Some recent comments on the blog by anti-Government people can't be doing their side any good. To call Prof Richard Herr OAM PhD a "failed academic [who] is is working for the pro regime indo-Fijian focussed university of Fiji" and to call me an anti-Fijian, anti-Samoan racist won't cut any ice with anyone who knows anything at all about either of us. No wonder one of the writers called himself "Desperate Spin."

CAMPBELL LIVE LINK TO SAMOA TSUNAMI AID MONEY LEAKS. Click here.

Australia, Fiji & China? What After the Military? Tuilaepa's Tsunami Dollars?

Australia Driving Fiji into China's Arms 

by Richard Herr*

Canberra should lose no time in repairing relations with Suva.

Fiji celebrated the 40th anniversary of its independence from Britain last week. Sitting under the protection of a pavilion, Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, ministers and the diplomatic corps were untroubled by the teeming rain that soaked the parading troops and schoolchildren who provided the spectacle for the occasion.

But not all the storm clouds were over Suva's Albert Park that day. Australia's high commissioner was missing from the diplomatic reserved seats, a casualty of tit-for-tat expulsions in the course of the troubled relationship between Canberra and Suva since the December 2006 military coup.

Adding an edge to Australia's diplomatic absence, for those who read the commemorative program, was the logo of the embassy of the People's Republic of China. It was the only state listed as an official sponsor.

The entire planet is making some adjustment to China's emergence as a rising global power. But Australia's four-year attempt to isolate and penalise the government of Bainimarama has pushed Fiji more quickly and fully into Beijing's arms. Arms has a double meaning here; Fiji's President Ratu Epeli Nailatikau has just returned from a state visit to China, where he visited a major arms manufacturing plant.The military sanctions imposed on Fiji by its traditional friends (Australia, New Zealand, Britain and the US) have left Fiji's military with few options for resupply or modernisation. Speculation is rife in Suva that Fiji will soon decide to procure Chinese sourced armaments. This would likely be a long-term commitment to the Chinese supply chain.

The Bainimarama government also has a significant military personnel training offer from China. There's every chance that a substantial commitment could soon be made to a five-year cadet officer training program that would at least equal the pre-2006 levels for Australia, New Zealand and Britain combined.

These developments are a direct result of some of the ill-advised sanctions against Fiji, rather than any efforts by China to discredit Fiji's ties with Australia. The affection that built up over the years between Australian officers and Fiji's military has been lost.

Senior Fiji officers regret that the brothers-in-arms status that they once enjoyed with their Australian counterparts isn't available and won't be offered to their junior officers.

Our closest Western allies in the region, the US and France, haven't gone as far down the military sanctions path as has Australia and have maintained routine contact with Fiji's armed forces.

Our leading Asian allies, Japan and South Korea, have undermined travel sanctions by allowing all personnel banned by Australia to travel abroad via their countries. In the process, they have reinforced Fiji's "look north" policy to cultivate new partners to offset the estrangement from its traditional friends.

At a recent meeting at the UN with Fiji's Foreign Minister Ratu Inoke Kubuabola, Hillary Clinton, recognised the 2014 date for elections in Fiji is unlikely to change.The US Secretary of State offered to assist Fiji in returning to parliamentary democracy by that date.

Despite its doubts, Australia shouldn't wait until 2014 to test the sincerity of Fiji's commitment to elections. That would only make Bainimarama's government feel it has succeeded despite Australia, and not because of Fiji's relationship with an old friend.

Last week's national day celebrations in Suva may have heralded a new focus for Fiji's independence, not from Britain but from Australia.If this trend is to be reversed, both sides should talk urgently.

* Richard Herr is the author of 'Time for a Fresh Approach: Australia and Fiji Relations Post-abrogation', Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Anthony Bergin is the research director at ASPI. These are their personal views.

What After the Military?

Scott MacWilliam's comment on the post 

"The Times They Are A Changin'":

The possibility that a military regime may be the precursor to a liberal democratic government is not as exceptional as some may think. Consider the history of England after Cromwell, France after Bonaparte, the USA after the military victory of the north over the south in the civil war, Germany after Bismarck and then again after the Allied Occupation in 1945, Japan after the Allied Occupation also at the end of WWII, South Korea during the Third, Fourth and Fifth Republics-the list goes on including more recently into Africa and Latin America.In many liberal democratic countries, the military's presence is invariably just beneath the surface, used to quell strikes, demonstrations, etc.

Nothing is predetermined in the relationship between military and civilian rule, despite what those who are romantically inclined care to think.  Fiji will be the same, which is why what steps are taken over the next few years to secure a transition to a more substantial democratic civilian government are so important.

TUILAEPA QUESTIONED. The Samoan Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister can call me what they like, they can imply Claudine Maclean and I are cynical and ignorant palagi, but shooting the messenger does not alter the fact that neither the government's own figures, nor what I saw and heard on the coast, go anywhere near towards answering the simple question we came to Samoa to ask: where has the money gone?  -- NZ journalist Campbell Live on the unaccounted for WST$100,000,000 given for tsunami relief. Samoa Observer, Oct. 6, 2010. [Which raises questions about Tuilaepa's  finger-pointing at Fiji.]

WHY THE CRIME RATE IS RISING BUT FALLING.Jone Kalouniviti comments on the changing nature of crime.  and indirectly on how statistics can be misleading if like is not compared with like.

More Rubbish from Tupuola Terry Tavita

Military Numbers per 1000 Population: Selected Countries
	PNG	Singa pore	New Zealand	Aust ralia	UK	France	FIJI	Austria	Tonga	USA	Malta	Seych elles	Nor way	Finland
Active	0.5	1.5	2.3	2.5	3.9	4.0	4.1	4.1	4.3	4.8	5.2	5.4	5.7	6.0
Total*	0.5	99.8	2.8	3.4	7.0	12.0	11.2	12.8	4.3	10.9	5.2	83.0	57.2	97.4

* Total includes Reservists.    Source: Wikipedia.

AUCKLAND, New Zealand (Pacific Scoop, June 23, 2010) - The deteriorating situation in Fiji is of major concern to the region. Particularly Pacific Island countries with military and para-military services. We could imagine that several commanders in the vast military forces of Papua New Guinea – and to a lesser extent Solomon Islands and Vanuatu and even Tonga – are now eyeing developments in Fiji closely. No doubt it is giving leaders like Sir Michael Somare some sleepless nights. If it could happen in Fiji, why not other Pacific countries with armies of their own? Read more.

What's wrong with Samoa? Once it was Fiji's friendly neighbour but for many months now there have been only negative comments from Prime Minister Tuilaepa, Forum Sec.Gen. Tuiloma Slade, and  the Samoa Government's acting newspaper editor Tupuola Terry Tavita.  The paragraph above comprises the opening lines of Tupuola's article Deteriorating Situation in Fiji Alarms region published in Pacific Scoop, the Pacific Island Development Programme in Hawai'i and goodness knows where else.

The article is wildly speculative, harmful to  dialogue and improving relations with Fiji,  and factually incorrect. What is deteriorating? The Fiji situation has not substantially changed  since June last year, and is certainly no worse. Who is sounding alarms that have not already been sounded? And who exactly is the region? Australia and New Zealand perhaps, but Island nations other than Samoa seem quite unfazed.

The article is factually incorrect.  Check out PNG's "vast  military forces" in the table above. PNG tops the table for having the smallest military relative to population.  With a population a little larger than New Zealand, their military is under one-third the New Zealand size.

Solomon Islands and Vanuatu do not have a military, not one, and Tonga's 450 soldiers perform mainly ceremonial functions.  It would be unseemly to have a king without an army.

I'm not prone to conspiracy theories but one cannot dismiss the possibility that Samoa has a hidden agenda in its recent pronouncements.  Do they think they will finally persuade the  Forum and other regional agencies to shift their headquarters from Suva to Apia?  Are they wrestling with Fiji for regional leadership? Do they think that any loss for Fiji is a win for Samoa? Have they been asked to be, or do they see themselves as, the Pacific Islands mouthpiece for Australia and New Zealand, perhaps in the hope of more  aid?   Or did they all just get out on the wrong side of the bed?

(+) Clinton Told Australia NZ Misleading Over Fiji

Suva (RF Online/Pacific Media Watch): Appearing at a congressional hearing in Washington, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is again urging Fiji to restore democracy as soon as possible. But yesterday when the subject of democracy came up again. American Samoan Congressman Faleomavaega Eni Hunkin came to the defence of the Fiji government. In a question to Clinton, he said regional heavyweights Australia and New Zealand had been painting an inaccurate picture of Fiji’s political scene. Returning from talks in Suva, he said the democratic system in the country had been unfair for years, and Fiji was not ready for proper elections. He told Clinton the situation in Fiji was complex, and for too long Canberra and Wellington had been allowed to take the lead. He said:

"It makes no sense, Madame Secretary, for the leaders of Australia and New Zealand to demand early elections for the sake of having elections in Fiji, when there are fundamental deficiencies in Fiji's electoral process."

Update: For a much fuller account, with comments from David Robie, click here.

(+) Un-Pacific Neighbours

Auckland-based journalist and political commentator Thakur Ranjit Singh (TRS) has a weekly column in the Fiji Times. Last week, in "Un-Pacific Neighbours", he reflected -- fairly but a little sharply -- on recent comments by Samoan PM Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegao that he thought aggrevated the situation and could make Bainimarama more resistant to calls from the PI Forum.

Here are some extracts.

Tuilaepa advised Bainimarama to seek advice from his Church leaders.
TRS: "He fails to realise that the Methodist Church has become a political wing of the SDL Party and has been so heavily embroiled in politics that it has overlooked its manifest functions of promoting spiritual enhancement, love for neighbours and moral values."

Tuilaepa advised Bainimarama to return to the barracks.
TRS: "I shudder to think of the outcome of Tuilaepa's advice to Bainimarama: allow for elections within this year to fulfill the Forum's demand, return to the barracks and make the military firmly answerable to the elected government. Was not Bainimarama doing exactly that to the elected government of Qarase when the fundamentalist Church and militant Taukei leaders manipulated his racist SDL for their blinkered and jaundiced agenda?"

Tuilaepa advised Bainimarama to hold early elections.
TRS: "What will [such] an election achieve? SDL will come up with bigger numbers, there would be vote rigging as in the past and the unfair and uneven representation from a flawed electoral system will create similar coup situations. After so-called democratic election, the Forum and international community will go back to sleep and Indo-Fijians will be destined to slavery and girmit (indenture) under a morally bankrupt and racist regime. Is that what TISI*, NFP, Fiji Law Society, elements of some trade unions and NGOs wish for Indo-Fijians? If that is also the level of understanding Samoa and its supporters in the Pacific Forum have of Fiji, then we need to question the usefulness of this august body."

*Then India Sanmarge Ikya Sangam Fiji (TISI) is a South Indian religious and cultural organization based in Nadi. Dor Sami Naidu is TISI's National President, President of the Fiji Law Society, and a strong Interim Government critic.

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Two Interim Govt Critics with More than One Hat
Readers should be aware that opinions can double (or even treble) their apparent importance when the media asks one person belonging to several organizations to speak on issues. Attar Singh is the best example. He speaks as a trade unionist, an NGO activist, and as a member of a political party. Pramod Rae is another example.

Attar Singh. GenSec Fiji Islands Council of Trade Unions; Chairperson, Movement for Democracy In Fiji; Executive member of National Federation Party; unsuccessful candidate in several elections. In the 2006 election he polled 6% of votes in the Suva City Open electorate.

Parmod Rae. GenSec National Federation Party; formerly GenSec Bank and Financial Sector Employees Union - removed by the Court after an appeal that the election was rigged; unsuccessful candidate in several elections. In the 2006 election he polled 5% of votes in the Samabula Tamavua Open electorate.

Samoan PM's Comments Inflammatory and Unhelpful

In what FijiLive called "an extraordinary verbal attack on a neighbour", Samoa's PM Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi claimed the Fiji military is planning to stay in power for another decade; PM Bainimarama is "stealing public money", and that Fiji has no need for the military. He called on Fijians (sic!) to "Wake up now. Stand up and reclaim your government. It is your God-given right." He called Bainimarama's appointment of Police Chief Esala Teleni, the appointment of one "madman" by another, an action "reminiscent of Stalin, Mussolini and Hitler." He also accused Bainimarama of lying to the Pacific Islands Forum that Samoa, or any other country, coerced smaller Pacific states into supporting a harder line against Fiji.

Tuilaepa is an economist, born in 1945, who was elected by other matai (chiefs) to parliament in 1980. He was instrumental in the major financial reforms of the early 1990s and for closer economic ties with China.

He has been criticized in Samoa for introduced legislation aimed at eroding customary forms of land tenure, allegedly in breach of the Constitution; forcing the resignation of the attorney general, reportedly over a case involving election fraud; and for legislation, protested against by 15,000 people, which switched Samoan road use from left to right-hand drive. This episode had many saying he was "out of touch or arrogant or ... simply tired." [Or all three?] Source: Wikipedia.

Postscript. Last week the media and the Interim Govenment's opponents squeezed all they could out of the "Teleni Affair." This week it promises to be the "Tuilaepa Affair" with the SDL and two anti-Government NGOs leading the charge. Be against the Interim Government by all means, but say what -- realistically -- you think should be done in the present situation. Perhaps like holding the IG to its commitment to an early meeting of the President's Political Dialogue Forum? Fortunately more helpful views are to be found in Chaudhry's comments, and in those of the Tongan PM Dr Feleti Sevele.

Surely there are more important things to attend to this week in Fiji than what the Samoan PM thinks of Bainimarama! Or vice versa!