pn932. Latest NZ Political Polls

 Three poll results have been released in the past three days, two of which show a Labour coalition could form government if an election were held on the poll date, 1News-Verian because NZ First dropped below the 5% threshold, Talbot Mills on numbers. 

But which date? The Talbot Mills poll ran though March, and the Roy Morgan poll for parts of March and April. The only poll conducted over a reasonable short time was 1News-Verian.  See table:

Tabot Mills tends to favour Labour and Roy Morgan National. 

Australian-based Roy Morgan also published a breakdown by age and sex of those polled. A similar breakdown from the other pollsters would have been useful.

Men, particularly older men, favoured National. Women favoured Labour and younger women Greens. Nearly a quarter (24.5%) of women aged 18-45 would vote Greens! See details below.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

	2023 NZ Election	April 2024	Women			Men
			All	18-49	50+	All	18-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
National	38.1	36.5	28	14.5	42.5	45.5	41.5	49.5
ACT	8.6	11	10	14	5.5	12	6.5	18
NZ First	6.1	5.5	4.5	3.5	6	6	4	8.5
National/ ACT/ NZ First	52.8	53	42.5	32	54	63.5	52	76
Labour	26.9	24.5	28	25	31	21.5	25.5	16.5
Greens	11.6	13	16.5	24.5	7.5	9.5	16	2.5
Maori Party	3.1	5.5	9.5	16	2.5	1.5	2	1
Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party	41.6	43	54	65.5	41	32.5	43.5	20
Others	5.6	4	3.5	2.5	5	4	4.5	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

The polls show that the National Coalition has lost some support since the elections and that Labour's standing is also not spectacular. 

PM Luxon had 23% support as preferred PM, down 2%, while Opposition leader Hipkins had 16%, up a miserable 1%.

In the 1News Verian Poll, voters were also asked: "Which of the [coalition] party leaders do you think has the most influence on Government decisions?"

Around 51% responded with the prime minister, while about 49% did not.

Out of those who didn't believe the National leader was in control, 23% believed New Zealand First's Winston Peters had the most influence, 10% said ACT's David Seymour was in charge, whilst 17% said they didn't know who was behind the wheel. 

Could New Zealanders be disallusioned with a jaded political line up on both sides of the political divide?

-- ACW

pn897. Chris Hipkins on effects of a National or a Labour win

 

You might have seen a new poll landed tonight and it shows that the race is getting tighter every week.

This means that if New Zealanders want to see a Government with a positive plan that puts people first, brings down the cost of living, invests properly in health and education, and believes in a fair go for everyone, then they need to Party Vote Labour.

There is so much at risk this election.

A National-ACT-New Zealand First Coalition would mean:

• Thousands of job cuts before Christmas
• Higher inflation and higher interest rates for longer
• Thousands more kids in poverty as National reduces funding for welfare
• Billions of dollars worth of Kiwi homes sold to foreign speculators
• Cuts to vital supports like free prescriptions, free public transport and free early childhood education
• An end to the public house building programme.

By contrast, Labour will:

• Bring inflation down and keep wages growing
• Keep Kiwis in work as we have done for the past six years
• Double the number of new public homes we’ve already built
• Expand free dental care to all under 30s
• Take GST off fruit and vegetables.

Make no mistake: if Christopher Luxon wins this election, New Zealanders will lose. Therefore my message to you is simple. To stop a Coalition of Cuts and Chaos with Winston Peters, David Seymour and Christopher Luxon, Party Vote Labour

pn974. Lobbying, vested interests and the wealthy in NZ politics

 

Follow the money

"Wealthy vested interests have an oversized influence on political decisions in New Zealand. Partly that’s due to their use of corporate lobbyists."  

This is the opening sentence in Bryce Edwards' illuminating article on the dubious role of lobbyists, and what needs to be done to regulate their influence on political decison-making which is of special interest in an election year.

Albert Einstein

He goes on to discuss the role of the media in the lobbying process:

"The media, too, must stop enabling lobbyists by giving them platforms to advance their agendas and reputations. Perhaps the media has a responsibility to stop using lobbyists as commentators or authoritative news sources.

" In recent times, lobbyists have become a central part of political analysis in New Zealand, as if they are the most authoritative voices due to their links with political parties."

I would add political polls as another source or breeding ground for lobbyists. Although the poll itself may be neutral, those commenting on the results are seldom without bias. 

-- ACW

pn969. The Campbell Dismissal: "Death Knell for Māori Health?"

Rob Campbell

Rob Campbell,  chairman of the Environmental Authority and Te Whatu Ora, was dismissed last week for criticising National on the social media for its opposition to co-governance*.  He had apparently breached the political neutrality required from heads of crown entities.

Yet, As Gordon Campbell (Kapi-Mana News, March 7) writes, " If experienced officials are to be denied the ability to comment by the convention of public service neutrality, and journalists are to be similarly constrained by the conventions of objectivity from robustly evaluating public policy, who, exactly, is going to lead to the public debate that we keep on saying we need to have on the major policy issues of the day?

* The two co-governance issues mentioned were the proposed Three Waters legislation and dismal Māori health statistics.

-- ACW

Related

 See Scoop for a full account of Gordon Campbell's article.

Māori leaders say they have lost an ally  RNZ

What Campbell's sacking means for Maōri health NZ Herald

Te Ara Pounamu: "Mr Rob Campbell, CNZM CFInstD, is an experienced professional director with extensive union, public and private sector governance experience spanning over 40 years in a range of different settings, both domestically and internationally." 

pn965. The Water Problem and Issues for Democracy

Is the choice really that strightforward?

This week's local Kapi-Mana News has a most informative article by Nicholas Boyack on one aspect of our "three waters" problem whose receipt by political parties and the general public raises wider—and much deeper— issues. First the problem; then the issues.

The Problem

Wellingtonians, which includes those living in the city, Upper and Lower Hutt and Porirua-Kapiti, are being urged to reduce water consumption or face severe restrictions. The recent dry weather has left water levels at an all time low.

The region's drinking water comes from the Wainuiomata catchment, Te AwaKairanga/Hutt rivers, and an aquifer under Lower Hutt. Years of underfunding and neglect by Councils has resulted in Wellington Water currently having to fix 2,758 pipe leakages. Last month it managed to at least temporarily fix 525. Chief Water adviser Laurence Edwards says that "The region is losing the equivalent of 27 Olympic swimming pools a day." And, given present funding allocations, the situation can only get worse even if global warming and the "mingling" of storm, waste and drinking water (see previous post pn963) are not included.

Issues

Our new Prime Minister's backtrack on Three Waters legislation, applauded by Bryce Edwards as a necessary political move to win voter support (see pn 964) highlights the deeper issue. Labour is to be less concerned with "ideological pet projects" (such as fixing our water problems) and more about "delivering the things that matter to the public" such as the cost of living - because this is what the public want.

Yet the reality is that the waters problem needs to be fixed and new legislation is needed to fix it. Water is neither ideological nor a pet project. It has only been made to seem so politicians can use the issue for their own objectives and seeking re-election. This is a central dilemma of democracy.

A choice has to be made between alternatives: press ahead with needed reforms and risk losing the next election, or abandon the reforms and hope to win the next election. 

One should, of course, seek to educate the public so that they can see the benefit of your proposals and support them but often time, circumstance, the media and the opposition, with their own agendas, do not permit.

What can be done about it? I have absolutely no idea but a close look at the role of the media could be a place to start. This again implies controls. But how can you ensure balanced and informed news items and discussion (which at present is sdaly lacking) without them? It seem that true, or truer, democracy, can only exist with restrictions.

Labour has put the "ideological" Three Waters legislation, the so-called "hate" Bill, the TV/broadcasting media Bill and co-goverance —all of which concern democracy —on hold and is to ask the Law Commission for its recommendations.

I wonder how many more leaks there will be before they start to fix them.

-- ACW

Today's 1News. People have been vomiting due to water pollution in Murupara in the Bay of Plenty.

pn961. Chris Hipkins off to a good start. But how will he tackle the deep issues?

 With a cabinet reshuffle just a day after two polls showing Labour ahead again – in which he promoted more Māori MPs to the front bench, created a new Minister for Auckland portfolio and drew a line under the previous administration by demoting several of Jacinda Ardern’s senior ministers – it’s fair to say new prime minister Chris “Chippy” Hipkins is off to a good start.  (Click to see cabinet changes.)

Most of all, it seems this year’s general election is back in play. For now at least, the sense of entropy that surrounded Labour during the final part of Jacinda Ardern’s reign has gone.

However, October 14 is still a long way off. The sense of momentum Hikpins and his new team have generated could drop away as quickly as it emerged. With the election campaign being framed as a “mano-a-mano” contest with National’s Christopher Luxon, the battle of the two Christophers will go a long way to determining the outcome.

But let’s put the personality politics aside for now, because there are other things rumbling away beneath the surface of New Zealand politics that we should be paying much closer attention to.

pn910. The Political Polls: Swings and Roundabouts

 

Political polls predict which parties would be government "if an election was held today," our preferred Prime Minister and the confidence we have in our economy. Often they are like the proverbial swings and roundabouts: one poll up, one down, with results showing no convincing gain or loss from one month to another. 

Up until January when Labour-Greens polled 49% to National-Act 43% it looked like the results of next year's national election were a foregone conclusion. Labour and Greens would romp home even without the support of Te Pati Māori. Since then, however, the roundabout could have become a swing. 

pn899. ACT's proposed alternative budget incredibly selfish —damn your neighbours; damn the planet

The high moral ground

This article is based on an excellent article by Russell Palmer. Read the full article here and/or read on for my synopisis...

The ACT Party's "alternative budget" announced today brings no surprises. It is predictably right-wing with most benefits going to the wealthy and most of the burden to poor and average New Zealanders. Consider, for instance, the number of job loses with itsproposed cuts and  restructuring.

ACT's  main aim is to cut taxation for  the rich paid for though a wide range of cuts on government expenditure, and an increase to the superannuation age, to return the government to surplus within a year. The age of superannuation eligibility would be increased at a rate of two months per year until it reaches age 67, at which point it would be indexed to life expectancy with no allowances made for different ethnic life expectancies.

The only increase in spending would be on defence to 2 % of GDP, an increase of about $61.3 million over four years., and a new $250 million-a-year fund called the Teaching Excellence Reward Fund,fund which will allow school principals to garnish their best teachers' wages, the assumption being that present awards reward the unworthy.

Overall, the rich will benefit most and the rest of us will pay for it.