(oB) To-morrow 9th April : Too Many Big Question Marks

Matters seem to be coming to a head  in Fiji, and tomorrow may tell us which way they are heading. 

First, former USP and current ANU academic, Dr Jon Fraenkel, has caste doubts about whether the Interim Government is genuine about holding elections, a view shared by others in and out of Fiji. Events tomorrow may provide an answer to this question.

Second, Bainimarama has put four conditions on the attendance of the SDL, UPP, NFP and the NVTP parties at tomorrow's meeting of political leaders. The Fiji Times says that two of the conditions include "reform of the communal system of voting and not dealing with 'partisan media'." The exclusion of these parties would make the meeting totally unrepresentative.

Third, National Federation Party's Pramod Rae has reminded the Interim Government it has only until May 1 to set the date for an election that must be held by the end of the year, or face "targetted measures" by the PI Forum.  

Fourth, January's PI Forum meeting in Port Moresby* recognized "long-term issues that need to be addressed in Fiji, including ...  independent and inclusive political dialogue; but that such dialogue must be primarily focused on the holding of elections. The dialogue process should not be the cause for further delay in holding elections." 

Fifth, the IG has made it repeatedly clear that it will proceed with the processes leading up to the President's Political Dialogue Forum (which include tomorrow's meeting) and will not be coerced to hold elections before the electoral system has been changed.

So, what do we have?  An IG that insists on political reforms (to abolish race-based electorates) before holding elections; an opposition that stands to lose by those reforms (although some timed compromise may be possible);  a meeting to set the stage for the discussion of these issues (to which the opposition may be excluded); and the PI Forum and several western governments insisting on agreement by all political stakeholders and early elections before reforms -- or else. 

The situation may be further aggravated (the timing could not be worse!) by the decision of the Fiji Court of Appeal on the legitimacy or otherwise of the President's action appointing the Interim Government. The Court's decision, which must anger one or the other party,  is expected tomorrow. If the IG is deemed illegal, and former PM Qarase carries out his promise to advise the President to formally dissolve (the old) Parliament and convene early elections, "all hell could break loose."  Neither party, whatever it may now say, is likely to accept a contrary decision without protest. And this is putting it mildly.

The situation seems headed towards a meeting of the proverbial immovable force with an irresistable object.   We can only (once again) hope, pray and cross our hearts and fingers, that wise heads will prevail and the collision is averted.   -- Crosbie Walsh.

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* Click on "Background Material" in the lefthand column to read the PI Forum Port Moresby communique, and the Biketawa Declaration to which it refers. In part,  the communique  "Called on the Interim Government to take the following actions to demonstrate its commitment to the restoration of parliamentary democracy in Fiji: (i) provide to Forum Leaders a new timetable agreed with all key political stakeholders, specifying in detail the agreed steps to elections and a return to democracy, and the timing for completing them, reflecting a consensus reached through a genuine, open, inclusive dialogue without threats, preconditions, ultimatums or predetermined outcomes; (ii) make a clear commitment that any reforms agreed through political dialogue will be implemented in accordance with the Constitution and laws of Fiji; (iii) undertake and sustain serious and credible election preparations, including allocation of necessary resources to the Office of the Supervisor of Elections, and the prompt preparation of the electoral roll; and (iv) make a renewed commitment that the military will withdraw from civilian politics following such an election, return to barracks, and submit to the authority of the elected civilian government in accordance with the Constitution." 

New Feature
Last Week in Fiji I : Fact and Opinion

• Aftermath Forum Decision
• Aftermath Fiji Times Publisher Expulsion
• Employers concerned about new minimum wages
• Commonwealth Urges Local Government Elections
• The Sunday Ban - Revived
• Announcement on President's Political Dialogue Forum (PPDF)

Meanwhile, estimates on the cost of flood damage increased; more flooding is forecast for Navua; Waisale Serevi was sacked as coach of the Fiji Sevens (and his supporters threatened to burn down Rugby House ... and Fiji slipped off the radar in New Zealand.

Aftermath Forum Decision
The Interim Government continues to say it will not be pressured; its opposition demands immediate compliance; and some in Fiji and overseas are asking for tougher measures. So, as expected, there's little new to report, onlyto repeat: pressure must be applied, inside and out of Fiji, on all parties, not just on the Interim Government.

Fiji Times Publisher Expulsion
The Pacific Concerns Resource Centre's (PCRC) Peter Emberson is the latest voice condemning the expulsion of Fiji Times publisher Australian Rex Gardner. In a separate post, I called the expulsion unwise but it does bear repeating that the FT defendants admitted guilt and the judge, generously, did not pass sentence on Gardner only because of its visa and work permit implications. Emberson called the expulsion "appalling" but the accusation can only apply to the severity of the judgements, not the judgments themselves.The FT abused its privileged position, and broke the law, not for the first time.

Employers concerned about new minimum wages
Surpise! Surprise!

The Sunday Ban - Revived
Village chief Isei Vosadrau of Cawaro, Udu Point, has banned Sunday travel because villagers are leaving church early to catch boats. Methodist President Awe Tugawe said that while "work" was not allowed on the Sabbath, this did not apply to visiting the sick, travel and helping the poor. Rev Akuila Yabaki, Citizen's Constitutional Forum (CCF), said the right to freedom of travel had been violated and he was appalled at a ban which forced people to attend church. The incident brings to mind the infamous Sunday Bans of the early 1990s when the Rabuka government included Fijian nationalist and religious extremists, not unlike the situation with the Qarase government. It serves as a further warning of the dangers of linking church to state.

Our human prejudices overwhelm the universality of our religious teachings. We use it to denigrate and demean each other. The way of the cross is love, forbearance, forgiveness, compassions and gentleness ... It is a quantum leap to apply these tactics to advocating a Christian State or to demonise other faiths.
Ratu Joni Madraiwiwi, Fiji Times, April 2006

Commonwealth Urges Local Government Elections
The Commonwealth Local Government Forum has urged the Interim Government to hold municipal elections no later than October. This followed the Government's dismissal last week of all municipal council preceding a "clean up campaign." An earlier review report had recommended councillors stay in office until a new election, and that mayors be elected by voters, not councillors. It was hoped this provision would meet Government's concern at the amount of party politics in municipal affairs. ( For more information on Fiji local government, see Walsh: An Encyclopaedic Atlas, pp384-387, and www.unescap.org/huset/lgstudy/country/fiji/fiji.html and www.answers.com/topic/fiji-municipal-elections-2005)

President's Political Dialogue Forum (PPDF)
The Forum, proposed by the President last year, will be facilitated by the Commonwealth and UN, with Forum representatives invited. The Forum is likely to be held soon, following a meeting of all political parties to discuss its terms of reference and an agenda. Electoral reform and the adoption of a new political system will be high on the agenda. The announcment would be good news except that PM Bainimarama has reservations inviting parties strongly critical of the People's Charter and electoral reform, and former PM Qarase and his SDL party insist there should be no pre-conditions. Bainimarama, he said, should come to the meeting with an "open mind." (One might add, and so should Qarase). The PPDF offers a way forward, especially if the international community offers its support, but for the present the signs do not look too promising.

(o+) Pushing Fiji Regime into a Corner is Not the Way
Opinion. Crosbie Walsh 29 January 2009

The special PI Forum meeting in Port Moresby has come and gone. The Interim Government's case went unheeded. NZ and Australia pressed for firm action. Sir Michael Somare called for further dialogue. Tonga was surprisingly silent given its earlier assurance to Baimarama it would support Fiji if the "promised" deadline for March elections could not be met. John Key reportedly mouthed personal insults at Fiji's Attorney-General. Kiribati and Tuvalu wavered but eventually agreed to support the "unanimous" resolution (Fiji, presumably,opposed it).

Fiji is not to be suspended from Forum membership (the NZ media got it wrong again) but the "ultimatum" to nominate an election date by May 1 and elections no later than December 2009 is going to be hard to meet. Meanwhile, sanctions will remain in place and the Ministerial Contact Group (MCG) will continue to monitor the situation for the PI Forum.

Fiji Live reports that Fiji must:
(i) provide to Forum Leaders a new timetable agreed with all key political stakeholders, specifying in detail the agreed steps to elections and a return to democracy, and the timing for completing them, reflecting a consensus reached through a genuine, open, inclusive dialogue without threats, preconditions, ultimatums or predetermined outcomes;
(ii) make a clear commitment that any reforms agreed through political dialogue will be implemented in accordance with the Constitution and laws of Fiji; and
(iii) undertake and sustain serious and credible election preparations, including allocation of necessary resources to the Office of the Supervisor of Elections, and the prompt preparation of the electoral roll.

On the surface, these demands may appear reasonable. But in reality they will be hard to meet. The IG will not abandon the coup objectives and revert to the status quo ante, and the Qarase grouping will not co-operate (or even meet) with the IG so long as it continues to have such unconditional outside support. Why should it support electoral reform when the present system served it so well?

For the "ultimatum" to be met by the IG, the Forum (and particularly New Zealand and Australia) must put pressure on all parties involved in the Fiji impasse, not just the IG. And it must offer legal and other support to find a way of meeting the conditions which do not force the IG to abandon the coup's objectives. If this cannot be achieved before an election, there must be a firm assurance that the incoming government will reform the electoral system to make it truly free, fair and democratic.

If it does not, the IG will be backed further into the corner. As one seasoned Pacific commentatator put it:

"My worry is that the harder the Pacific countries push the regime in Fiji, there is a danger that it will transform from a relatively benign but authoritarian military-backed administration into a full dictatorship with a full crackdown on the media and total denial of human rights. As the political and economic situation deteriorates, the sort of oppression seen in some other post-coup developing countries, notably in Africa (and the Philippines under Marcos and even now under a "democracy"), could emerge".

Evidence that a seige mentality is already emerging is provided by several coup supporters responding to the Forum ultimatum:

"Let the ban come - we will not be harmed. Our decisions are our own and Fiji does not bow to any other country. If the (Forum) leaders wish to remain thick-headed about their decision, then it is their loss. Fiji will continue to slogger on as we always have. Our people are hardworking and they care enough about this country to help rebuild it and take it forward. Do not fear what you write - only fear what will happen if you do not write the truth or stand up for what you believe in. Our cause is genuine and we will not stop simply because there are a few people crying as a result of the government discovering their corrupt ways and stopping it forever".

"It is really an act of war! Where in the world have other countries put deadlines to a sovereign state!"

"I'm fighting for my country. Count on me, Frank. Don't let them dictate things to us."

Former diplomat Gerald McGhie, well experienced in Pacific affairs (Dominion Post 23.1.09), asks how "links between such longstanding Pacific partners (can) have reached such a low point" and how they may be repaired. He makes several important observations:

• Our far less "restrictive and didactic approaches" to Asian coups."For all his faults, Voqere Bainimarama's rationale for the December 2006 coup was, among other things, to introduce proportional representation and rid Fiji of corruption."
• Our preoccupation with the timing of elections, in the hope they will lead to constitutional change. Since this has not happened before, "perhaps constitutional change should precede an election" (as Bainimarama requires).
• Our failure to apply the lessons learnt in resolving Treaty of Waitangi issues to conflict resolution in the Pacific.

The way forward?

"Why not," he asks, "send a team of experts to Suva to establish the broad outlines of new constitutional requirements?"

Perceptively he adds, " In discussing these issues with the politically acute (sic!) Fijians, tone and style will be vital."

My own advice to our Government? Reflect on the observation: There's only one thing worse than a coup, and that's a failed coup.