pn966. The Parties' Standings, National, Labour, ACT, Greens

Christopher Luxon must step up or step down  as National Party leader if National is to win the next election.  This seems to be the opinion of of both left- and right-leaning commentators reported by Bryce Edwards in today's Political Roundup. Opinion is that he should be replaced  by his high performing deputy Nicola Willis. But the problem could be more than Luxton. National needs to flesh out its policies. It is not sufficient to say what it thinks Labour is doing wrong.  It needs to spell out what it would do instead.

The recent NZ Taxpayers' Union Curia poll (2-9 February) showed both major parties on 34.3% (Labour up  +2.7%; National down -2.8%) with Greens on 7.8%, down -2.8%, and ACT on 11.7, up +0.9.  The Greens seem to be losing support to Labour and ACT gaining support from National.  With these results National-ACT would win just enough seats to form the next government.  

For preferred PM 30% wanted Hipkins and 26% Luxton, but the net result was far worse for Luxon. His net favourability rating (those with a favourable opinion minus those with an unfavourable opinion) was minus -5, down from minus -1, compared with Hipkins's plus  +27%. Their  perceived reponses to Cyclone Gabrielle sould give us the next indication of how they —and their parties—fare. 

The Cyclone, which is yet another sign of global warming, should give the Greens a chance to make up more support but the media has reported no response from them! 

Perhaps, dream on, they should sponsor a tour by Greta Thunberg, the 20-year old Swedish climate change activist, and appoint a pro-active campaign manager. ACT's David Seymour is always on the media. When was the last time you saw either of the Greens' co-leaders?

--ACW

James Shaw on Twitter

@jamespeshaw

For only the third time in our history a National State of Emergency has been declared. Please follow official advice and stay safe. This is climate change. The impacts will get worse unless we act NOW to cut emissions quickly and adapt communities for the effects already here.