pn926. Two polls, similar results but so what? Better to ask about specific party policies

1News-Kantar Poll, July-Ausust 2022

The latest 1News-Kantar  and Roy Morgan  polls show broadly similar results which strengthen the reliability of only one poll.   Both show National-ACT with just enough support to form the government —  a 5% point margin over Labour-Greens.   

But therafter it's all swings and roundabouts. National and the Greens are a little down in both polls, ACT is well up (plus 4%) in the Kantar poll and a little down in the Morgan poll, and Labour is down a little in the former and up 2% in the latter.     Over 10% of those polled did not know or refused to say who they would vote for.

Moreover, the preferred PM results seemed to contradict the preferred party results:  both Jacinda Ardern and Christopher Luxon were down 3% but Jacinda led with 30% to his 22%, and while ACT had 11% of party support and David Seymour was up 2% he was the preferred PM for only 5% of those polled.  

 The Kantar poll saw the 5% marginal gap between the party groupings widen slightly compared with its previous poll, but Labour had closed the gap slightly in the Morgan poll when the previous gap was 7%.

As noted several times on this blog, little is learnt from these political poll results, especially when elections are so far away.  Outside election years,  polls would be more useful if they asked the public for their opinions on specific government and party policies— or the odds in the next All Blacks-Springbok game! 

-- ACW