The Greens, Blue Greens and National's Political Futures

Kennedy Graham pn254

UPDATE. Perhaps the best commentary on the question by PeterDunn. Click here.
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National is unlikely to win the next election on its own. It needs a centrist or extreme right coalition partner.  The ACT party seems to have had its day though David Seymour is an impressive performer,  the New Conservatives undermined themselves but could still return, and the Maori Party, if it can cross the threshold,  is unlikely to rejoin National. It achieved much with National but most Maori voter were not convinced.  

The search is on for a revitalised or new partner capable of taking votes from the three parties that presently make up the Government. The most likely new party will been a centrist or right-leaning Green party. There is as yet no clear indication of what will emerge but something is likely this year. 

These three writers, Martyn Bradbury, Lucy Bennett and Gordon Campbell consider the possibilities. 




 Martyn Bradbury says we already have a centrist-green party. The Greens lost their political left-wing when Sue Bradford left the party.

There's  talk of ex-Green Party MP Kennedy Graham forming a Blue Greens party. He supports the idea of a new party but  says hs political career is over.,

Another possible Blue-Green leader is Vernon Tava who switched from Greens to National when he did not win the co-leadership.  Lucy Bennett of the NZ Herald provides the background, but note she (and Bradbury) talk of centrist, not Blue that the party most definitely would be.  At this stage Tava has discounted leading a new party./

Bradbury thinks such a party "won’t get anywhere near 5% but as a spoiler it could remove just enough Green Party vote for the Greens to slip under 5% and under MMP rules, redistribute that vote to National. That is the real goal here, not to legitimately give voice to a Blue Green electorate." 

 Gordon Campbell examines National's and the Green's options and  concludes it's "only National's inability to change its views of the environment, taxation and socio-economic inequality that stops the Greens from working with 'National."