pn910. The Political Polls: Swings and Roundabouts

 

Political polls predict which parties would be government "if an election was held today," our preferred Prime Minister and the confidence we have in our economy. Often they are like the proverbial swings and roundabouts: one poll up, one down, with results showing no convincing gain or loss from one month to another. 

Up until January when Labour-Greens polled 49% to National-Act 43% it looked like the results of next year's national election were a foregone conclusion. Labour and Greens would romp home even without the support of Te Pati Māori. Since then, however, the roundabout could have become a swing. 

The March Kantar poll showed National/Act one percent ahead, in April/May the Roy Morgan poll showed them 3.5% ahead and the 21-25 May Kantar poll, when the Budget had just been released, one percent ahead. A National-ACT government seemed on the cards, even though in most polls the undecided voter (don't know/refused to answer) typically exceeded ten percent. (Note, some 11% of those polled were undecided or refused to answer and that a 1-3 percent advantage for either major party is not statistically significant. It could have occurred by chance.) Trends over several  polls may by indicative but individual poll results are often something of a no-no.

The Kantar poll showed the preferred PM was still Jacinda on 33% but this was her lowest score since she became PM. Christopher Luxon had jumped to 25%, up 6% and the highest National leader since Bill English. But with 31% undecided or refusing to answer it is hard to know what these percentages actually mean.

Jacinda put her decline down to the "really tough time New Zealanders are in" and pointed to the positives: Government's $350 payment to low and middle income earners, cheaper public transport and the winter fuel payments. "We've got some really critical issues to address, we need to provide greater economic security... that's what the Budget was all about." Christopher Luxon said it was the spiralling cost of living, government band-aid policies, "more spending, more bureaucracy, worse outcomes."

The latest poll this month, Talbot-Mills released today, shows Labour-Greens once again  in front.   Labour was on 37%, up 1, Greens 8%, no change, National 36%, down 1, and Act 7%, down 2.

Generally, most likely to vote Labour were those with household incomes under $30,000, Wellingtonians, Māori, Pacifika and women, especially those aged 35-50.

Most likely to vote National were those with household incomes over $70,000, Aucklanders and men, especially those 50 years and over. Gender and age details are shown in the table below.

 

In addition to these questions, some polls also ask questions that are indicative of underlying and possibly changing opinions: 1) Government Confidence Ratings measured by whether those polled thought government policies were heading in the right or wrong direction, and  2) whether those polled thought economic conditions would be good or worse in 12 months time.  

The May 3 Roy Morgan poll showed confidence to have improved recently but with pollsters divided and down on previous months. Some 65% thought economic conditions were poor or not so good but this was down 2%  better than a month earlier, while  some 33% though they were excellent or good which was up 2%.   Overall, New Zealander were not overly optimistic about our present or future situation but the two upswings if indicative and sustained could be good for Labour.

-- ACW