Three poll results have been released in the past three days, two of which show a Labour coalition could form government if an election were held on the poll date, 1News-Verian because NZ First dropped below the 5% threshold, Talbot Mills on numbers.
But which date? The Talbot Mills poll ran though March, and the Roy Morgan poll for parts of March and April. The only poll conducted over a reasonable short time was 1News-Verian. See table:
Tabot Mills tends to favour Labour and Roy Morgan National.
Australian-based Roy Morgan also published a breakdown by age and sex of those polled. A similar breakdown from the other pollsters would have been useful.
Men, particularly older men, favoured National. Women favoured Labour and younger women Greens. Nearly a quarter (24.5%) of women aged 18-45 would vote Greens! See details below.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | April 2024 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 36.5 | 28 | 14.5 | 42.5 | 45.5 | 41.5 | 49.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 5.5 | 12 | 6.5 | 18 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 8.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 53 | 42.5 | 32 | 54 | 63.5 | 52 | 76 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 24.5 | 28 | 25 | 31 | 21.5 | 25.5 | 16.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 13 | 16.5 | 24.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 16 | 2.5 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 16 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 43 | 54 | 65.5 | 41 | 32.5 | 43.5 | 20 |
| Others | 5.6 | 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | 4 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
The polls show that the National Coalition has lost some support since the elections and that Labour's standing is also not spectacular.
PM Luxon had 23% support as preferred PM, down 2%, while Opposition leader Hipkins had 16%, up a miserable 1%.
In the 1News Verian Poll, voters were also asked: "Which of the [coalition] party leaders do you think has the most influence on Government decisions?"
Around 51% responded with the prime minister, while about 49% did not.
Out of those who didn't believe the National leader was in control, 23% believed New Zealand First's Winston Peters had the most influence, 10% said ACT's David Seymour was in charge, whilst 17% said they didn't know who was behind the wheel.
Could New Zealanders be disallusioned with a jaded political line up on both sides of the political divide?
-- ACW
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