pn843. Returning to the Flock: Latest Poll Results: Updated

Christopher Luxon

A new leader for National has seen the shift from National to Act reverse and National's best polling for some time.  The latest 1News Kantar * Political Poll has also seen a consequent small drop in support for Labour. The results of the poll of 1,000 —50% by random cellphone calls and 50% by an "online panel"— are shown in the tables below.  The poll was  taken between 22nd and 26th of this month. Results  were weighted for age, gender, region, education level and ethnicity to reflect national proportions.  The figures are rounded and do not equal 100 percent.

The party results are not surprising. Declining popularity over time is common for most governments. The pandemic has not helped for while most people think it has been well handled by Labour, it has created uncertainty and adversely affected many livelihoods. The insiduous, constant barrage of negative anti-Labour media comment is also clearly having its effect.  The trend is downwards from around  50% a year ago, but the recent 1% drop is hardly significant.  National is where it was a year ago, and Act and the Greens are better placed.  See Kantar table below: 

I'm always sceptical about the preferred PM results, and my view seems to be shared by a third of those questioned who either said they didn't know or refused to answer this question.  What does surprise, though, is the wide difference between Luxon's 17% and National's 32% compared with the much narrower Ardern (36%) and Labour's  40%. Where did so many of National's preferred PM's go? The question is often something of a no-no.

People's views on the state of the economy in 12 months time were bad, but not as bad as I would have thought given the effects of the pandemic and media negativity.  Many of those who said "better" in the November poll seem to have changed to  "same" in this poll.  The country seems to be equally divided between those who thought "worse" and those who thought "better" or "same," a division not too disimilar to the party vote.

Christopher Luxon would have us believe Government "dumb stuff" policies were largely responsible, citing  cameras on fishing boats to monitor catches and the kefuffle about the Auckland Bridge cycleway.  The Greens' explanation highlighted the "loose monetary policies" of the Reserve Bank. Labour's Grant Robertson said rising inflation was a global issue caused by disrupted supply chains and rising oil prices.  Luxton's called for the Auckland fuel tax to be poleaxed and the faster release of rapid antigen testing. Act's David Seymour called for tax cuts and the reopening of our borders.  

Explanations and solutions galore. How we  manage to talk past each other.

*  Colmar Brunton's new name. For the full Kantar report, click here.

-- ACW