pn754. "Is the Coviid-19 'honeymoon' over for PM Jacinda Ardern?" -- Exaggeration and Racist Misinformation

Part of the misinformation

The latest Roy Morgan poll published on 5 July seems to have mainly missed media attention. 

 Headed "Is the Covid-19 'honeymoon' over for PM Jacinda Ardern?"  Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s long COVID-19 ‘honeymoon’ appears to be ending as Government Confidence is down and support for the Labour-led Government is at its lowest since October 2017." Note this is long before Jacinda, when Andrew Little led the party.  Disaster strikes the government ranks!  

She goes on to cite the 6.6% drop in Labour's support; and the mere 7.9% gap between a Labour-Green coalition and a National, ACT and Māori Party Opposition.  If the Māori party did not join Labour and Greens, it is doubtful it would be a hostile opposition. 

What was hardly mentioned or not mentioned at all, were the possible reasons for the Labour drop, and sharp increase in support for ACT, both of which seem to be statistically significant, which many poll changes are not.

The drop could be due to a decline in Jacinda's personal popularity but May Colmar Brunton/TVNZ preferred PM results showed her popularity increased by 5% to 48%, while the May Newshub Reid poll showed little difference for Jacinda but a massive drop of 12.8% to 5.6% for Judith Collins.  

More likely causes for Labour's drop are the slow rollout of the Covid vaccine, the new 39% tax bracket for incomes over $180,000,  and —the most likely—  the confusion about the He Puapua Report which Judith Collins and others say shows Labour supports Māori separatism and a separate Māori parliament. 

Labour did not handle the release of the draft report well and allowed this misinformation to fester. But the PM has made it quite clear that the report has not yet been discussed by Cabinet and there very definitely is no intention to establish a Māori parliament.  Nonetheless, one race-related 

I think this report from AAP Factsheet provides a balanced assessment of the He Puapua report.   After examining the evidence, it concludes:

There is no evidence to support the claim that New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is in favour of “50 per cent Maori rule” or devaluing Maori votes.

While the He Puapua report mentions the potential creation of a Maori parliament or upper house with 50 per cent Maori representation, experts said it does not propose changes to the House of Representatives – which would be the only way to alter the weighting of votes. Ms Ardern has repeatedly ruled out constitutional changes such as the introduction of a Maori parliament.

False – Content that has no basis in fact.

* AAP FactCheck is an accredited member of the International Fact-Checking Network. To keep up with our latest fact checks, follow us on Facebook and Twitter.

I think the increase in support for ACT is related more to the perceived ineptness of the National Party leadership and lack of policy than any new threats, either real or imagined, from Labour, though polls tend to show more support for both ACT and the Greens than they have achieved in elections.

-- ACW