pn559NZ Election Result: Is it really a Transformational "Red Tide"?

... or a Red Dawn? 

See also Martyn Bradbury's excellent post.

         

Labour won an incredible 49.1% of the vote  with 98% of the votes counted, enough to govern alone without the support of the Greens who won 7.6% of the vote or the Maori Party that won the Waiariki constituency.  

On the right (or wrong) side of the spectrum ACT won 8% which will give them 10 seats in the new Parliament, up from the single seat they previously held, and National won 26.8% of the vote (well below the Colmar Brunton poll prediction of 31%, see previous post), losing many previously held blue seats, including  rural seats which usually vote National. 

Unless yet to be counted overseas and special votes change the election night results, Labour will have 64 seats of the 120 seats in the new Parliament, the Greens 10, the Maori Party 1, National 35 and ACT 10.

The media is using phrases like  "red tide" and "transformational government", but how red and transformational it is likely to be depends on whether the Greens form part of a coalition government and influence policies on environment and social inequality. With or without the Greens and the Maori Party,  Labour may swing even more to the centre, anxious not to lost the support of former National Party voters at the 2023 elections who voted Labour at this election for the first time.

It is far too early to predict any likelihood of change in the tides — or policy directions.

-- ACW

Disclosure: I gave my constituency vote to Labour and my party vote to the Greens.