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| pn47 |
The result looks clear enough except for three things: 1) the methodology used (see note at the end of this posting) is questionable. 2) The poll came immediately after people posted photos of a gruesome multi-car crash on their mobile phones. A week earlier or three weeks later the result could have been quite different, and 3) 19% were undecided.
However, the result
will please government which recently passed the Online Safety Act
that will set up a commission to look into "combating abusive,
hateful and illegal behaviour online."
Poll accuracy could
also have been affected by having too many questions: one on tougher
laws, the others on who those polled will be voting for in the forthcoming elections and who is
their preferred prime minister after the elections.
The election answers
The election answers are interesting. Bainimarama's governing party Fiji First were a clear first on 69%, the current main opposition party SODELPA came second on 13% but the National Federation Party, the only other party in the present parliament, obtained only 1%.
The NFP is Fiji's oldest party and the major party once supported by Indo-Fiji. One wonders whether there were fewer of them at the bus stops or whether Razor weighted the results to achieve a demography balance with Fiji's total population? My earlier email to the Sun for an explanation on the methodology used by Razor was not answered.
This part of the poll is also interesting because there were no "undecided" unlike the 19% "undecided" on the tougher laws question.
What we appear to have is a partial collapse of the "old" opposition parties, SODELPA to some extent, the NFP and the Fiji Labour Party almost totally, and the rise of two parties until recently unheard of, Unity Fiji on 11% and Hope on 6%.
In the preferred prime minister poll Bainimarama had 69% of the vote (the same as his Fiji First), SODELPA's Sitiveni Rabuka had 15% and Ro Teimumu 9% (that combined far exceeded their party's 13%) and NFP's Dr Biman Prasad had 2% compared his party's 1%.
Attar Singh scored 1% compared with FLP's 3%, and Tupou Draunidalu scored 6% compared with Hope's 6%. Nothing much to read into these figures.
The real surprise is the Unity party preferred leader. His party polled 11% but Savenaca Narube scored only 1%.
My prediction is that Bainimarama and Fiji First will win the election, but if it's close they may need a coalition with Unity or Hope. If SODELPA could resolve its internal troubles it could win more than its polled 13%, which is down from 26% in an earlier poll.
Its drop from favour, however, is probably as much due to the rise of Unity and Hope -- which may also have taken some support away from FijiFirst.
The same could be said for the NFP. I would expect its election vote to be higher than the polled 1%, but this will depend on how many of its potential voters choose Unity, Hope and FLP.
Watch this space.
ACW.
NOTE
The three polls postings are
#1. Why are polls so inaccurate? Pn24
#2.Comparing three sample polling methods Pn25
#3. Poll results and their commentators. Pn26
Write their Posting note (Pn) number in "Search this blog" near the top of the sidebar to read or make a note of the Pn to read later.
The NFP is Fiji's oldest party and the major party once supported by Indo-Fiji. One wonders whether there were fewer of them at the bus stops or whether Razor weighted the results to achieve a demography balance with Fiji's total population? My earlier email to the Sun for an explanation on the methodology used by Razor was not answered.
This part of the poll is also interesting because there were no "undecided" unlike the 19% "undecided" on the tougher laws question.
What we appear to have is a partial collapse of the "old" opposition parties, SODELPA to some extent, the NFP and the Fiji Labour Party almost totally, and the rise of two parties until recently unheard of, Unity Fiji on 11% and Hope on 6%.
In the preferred prime minister poll Bainimarama had 69% of the vote (the same as his Fiji First), SODELPA's Sitiveni Rabuka had 15% and Ro Teimumu 9% (that combined far exceeded their party's 13%) and NFP's Dr Biman Prasad had 2% compared his party's 1%.
Attar Singh scored 1% compared with FLP's 3%, and Tupou Draunidalu scored 6% compared with Hope's 6%. Nothing much to read into these figures.
The real surprise is the Unity party preferred leader. His party polled 11% but Savenaca Narube scored only 1%.
My prediction is that Bainimarama and Fiji First will win the election, but if it's close they may need a coalition with Unity or Hope. If SODELPA could resolve its internal troubles it could win more than its polled 13%, which is down from 26% in an earlier poll.
Its drop from favour, however, is probably as much due to the rise of Unity and Hope -- which may also have taken some support away from FijiFirst.
The same could be said for the NFP. I would expect its election vote to be higher than the polled 1%, but this will depend on how many of its potential voters choose Unity, Hope and FLP.
Watch this space.
ACW.
NOTE
The three polls postings are
#1. Why are polls so inaccurate? Pn24
#2.Comparing three sample polling methods Pn25
#3. Poll results and their commentators. Pn26
Write their Posting note (Pn) number in "Search this blog" near the top of the sidebar to read or make a note of the Pn to read later.
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