(o+) Pushing Fiji Regime into a Corner is Not the Way
Opinion. Crosbie Walsh 29 January 2009

The special PI Forum meeting in Port Moresby has come and gone. The Interim Government's case went unheeded. NZ and Australia pressed for firm action. Sir Michael Somare called for further dialogue. Tonga was surprisingly silent given its earlier assurance to Baimarama it would support Fiji if the "promised" deadline for March elections could not be met. John Key reportedly mouthed personal insults at Fiji's Attorney-General. Kiribati and Tuvalu wavered but eventually agreed to support the "unanimous" resolution (Fiji, presumably,opposed it).

Fiji is not to be suspended from Forum membership (the NZ media got it wrong again) but the "ultimatum" to nominate an election date by May 1 and elections no later than December 2009 is going to be hard to meet. Meanwhile, sanctions will remain in place and the Ministerial Contact Group (MCG) will continue to monitor the situation for the PI Forum.

Fiji Live reports that Fiji must:
(i) provide to Forum Leaders a new timetable agreed with all key political stakeholders, specifying in detail the agreed steps to elections and a return to democracy, and the timing for completing them, reflecting a consensus reached through a genuine, open, inclusive dialogue without threats, preconditions, ultimatums or predetermined outcomes;
(ii) make a clear commitment that any reforms agreed through political dialogue will be implemented in accordance with the Constitution and laws of Fiji; and
(iii) undertake and sustain serious and credible election preparations, including allocation of necessary resources to the Office of the Supervisor of Elections, and the prompt preparation of the electoral roll.

On the surface, these demands may appear reasonable. But in reality they will be hard to meet. The IG will not abandon the coup objectives and revert to the status quo ante, and the Qarase grouping will not co-operate (or even meet) with the IG so long as it continues to have such unconditional outside support. Why should it support electoral reform when the present system served it so well?

For the "ultimatum" to be met by the IG, the Forum (and particularly New Zealand and Australia) must put pressure on all parties involved in the Fiji impasse, not just the IG. And it must offer legal and other support to find a way of meeting the conditions which do not force the IG to abandon the coup's objectives. If this cannot be achieved before an election, there must be a firm assurance that the incoming government will reform the electoral system to make it truly free, fair and democratic.

If it does not, the IG will be backed further into the corner. As one seasoned Pacific commentatator put it:

"My worry is that the harder the Pacific countries push the regime in Fiji, there is a danger that it will transform from a relatively benign but authoritarian military-backed administration into a full dictatorship with a full crackdown on the media and total denial of human rights. As the political and economic situation deteriorates, the sort of oppression seen in some other post-coup developing countries, notably in Africa (and the Philippines under Marcos and even now under a "democracy"), could emerge".

Evidence that a seige mentality is already emerging is provided by several coup supporters responding to the Forum ultimatum:

"Let the ban come - we will not be harmed. Our decisions are our own and Fiji does not bow to any other country. If the (Forum) leaders wish to remain thick-headed about their decision, then it is their loss. Fiji will continue to slogger on as we always have. Our people are hardworking and they care enough about this country to help rebuild it and take it forward. Do not fear what you write - only fear what will happen if you do not write the truth or stand up for what you believe in. Our cause is genuine and we will not stop simply because there are a few people crying as a result of the government discovering their corrupt ways and stopping it forever".

"It is really an act of war! Where in the world have other countries put deadlines to a sovereign state!"

"I'm fighting for my country. Count on me, Frank. Don't let them dictate things to us."

Former diplomat Gerald McGhie, well experienced in Pacific affairs (Dominion Post 23.1.09), asks how "links between such longstanding Pacific partners (can) have reached such a low point" and how they may be repaired. He makes several important observations:

• Our far less "restrictive and didactic approaches" to Asian coups."For all his faults, Voqere Bainimarama's rationale for the December 2006 coup was, among other things, to introduce proportional representation and rid Fiji of corruption."
• Our preoccupation with the timing of elections, in the hope they will lead to constitutional change. Since this has not happened before, "perhaps constitutional change should precede an election" (as Bainimarama requires).
• Our failure to apply the lessons learnt in resolving Treaty of Waitangi issues to conflict resolution in the Pacific.

The way forward?

"Why not," he asks, "send a team of experts to Suva to establish the broad outlines of new constitutional requirements?"

Perceptively he adds, " In discussing these issues with the politically acute (sic!) Fijians, tone and style will be vital."

My own advice to our Government? Reflect on the observation: There's only one thing worse than a coup, and that's a failed coup.