3. What New Zealand Can Do to Help Resolve the Fiji Political Situation

Since writing the previous article in this three part series, Bainimarama's remark about the "people" wanting  him to stay on after 2014 has been taken up by his opponents as the first sign he's not serious about elections. His remark was not read in its context. He was illustrating the support he had during his provincial tours to debunk Smith and McCully's remarks that the situation in Fiji had deteriorated. There never was any suggestion that  elections would not be held in September 2014. See this FijiLive clarification.  

Photo: NZ PM John Key --- looking for an answer?

"They still cannot and do not want to understand the situation in Fiji and in doing that Australia and New Zealand have failed to understand and recognize my Government’s efforts in creating a country that is non-racial, culturally vibrant and united, well governed, fully democratic nation that seeks progress and prosperity through merit based equality, opportunity and peace. That is what we been telling these people for the last four years.” --- Bainimarama. http://www.radiofiji.com.fj/fullstory.php?id=28260

Opinion: Crosbie Walsh

There are four essentials.

• One, Bainimarama and the Fiji Government must be treated with the respect due to a sovereign nation. It is a studded insult to refer to Bainimarama as the interim PM and Ratu Inoke Kubuabola as the interim Foreign Minister.  Bainimarama is the de facto PM and there's nothing interim about it. Nothing is achieved by insulting the man you wish to influence. 
• Two, the first move, aimed at triggering positive responses from Fiji, must come from New Zealand or Australia.Why? Because Fiji already made its move in inviting the Ministers to Fiji. The invitation was withdrawn after the Ministers' comments.  It's our move.
•  Three, each positive step taken by Fiji should be publicly acknowledged and welcomed, and followed by a further quid pro quo "concession" from New Zealand.  One-off negative steps by Fiji should not be exaggerated or dramatised. They are better overlooked or discussed behind the scenes. An open exchange of angry or disparaging words should be avoided. 
• Four,  no further attempts should be made to bring the elections forward from 2014; concentrate instead on the suggested actions listed below.

Our government and Australia's should also cease their covert support for the ousted Qarase government and urge Fiji government opponents to reassess their position. No SAS paratroopers are coming to their rescue and no helicopter will swoop down on the military barracks to abduct Bainimarama.

While, ultimately, it is what governments do that decide national outcomes, our media should be encouraged to play a better informed positive role -- or at least stop playing a negative role. Its Fiji coverage  has been so partisan that it's often an embarrassment to the fair-minded. And TV could start by showing Bainimarama wearing something other than a military uniform.

Governments and politicians do not pluck foreign policies, strategies and tactics out of the air. Our Government turns for advice  and information to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and NZAid.  Government should instruct these advisers to prioritise work on how to break the impasse and improve our relations with Fiji. The longer the present situation is allowed to deteriorate, the harder it will be to remedy.The Ministry needs to re-think its sources, information and advice on Fiji and start again from square one.

These are the things I think NZ (and Australia) can do to restore relations with Fiji and  help resolve the political situation. My suggestions are listed in roughly easier-to-harder order of difficulty, with a comment added where necessary.

• Try immediately to restore the lost ground, by behind the scenes approaches
• Amend travel advisories, indicating that visitors need only take the normal precautions
• Make the NZ High Commission in Suva more pro-active in meeting government and trade officials
• Restore the previous normal access to the NZ High Commission floors in the Reserve Bank Building.  I understand even applications for visas now have to come by courier post!
• Do not discourage, and in some areas encourage, NZ trade and investment activities in Fiji
• Ease up on the Travel bans, starting with the families of non-military officials
• Restore full working relations with Fiji in all regional agencies other than the Forum
• Progressively encourage more Fiji participation in Pacer and Forum affairs
• Sustain pressure for human rights improvements by all means but give, where it is due, credit for social justice and other improvements.
• Inform the Commonwealth, the EU and other international agencies that some social justice issues are improving, and generally give credit where credit is due.
• Offer technical assistance on anti-corruption measures, legal draftsmanship, constitutional law, electoral reforms, and other areas where Fiji lacks, and we have, the necessary expertise
• Progressively restore full diplomatic relations

Finally, there should be no sense of shame or back pedalling in modifying our dealings with Fiji. In the real world, policies often have to fit situations because ever-changing situations rarely fit policies. 

We will not be adopting a new approach because we approve of coups or the Bainimarama government. Our new approach will simply reflect our improved understanding of how best to deal with the realities of a de facto government. We will be making the most of a difficult situation, ever intent on the need to achieve the best outcomes for our near neighbour -- and for ourselves.

The last thing either country needs, and this is not the first time I've said it,  is a failed coup.  Some permanent traction needs to come from the roller coaster events of the last three and one-half years.