pn979. The latest political polls: seesawing major parties, Te Pāti Māōri the key. Is Luxon part of the problem?

Luxon (L) and Hipkins

The latest political poll shows Te Pāti Māori continues to hold the balance of power, the difference between the two major party blocks being too close to call. In the latest Newshub-Reid poll TPM polled 3.5%. If if wins an electorate seat which seems most likely, it would have 5 seats in Parliament, enough to ensure a Labour-Green-TPM victory. 

The oscillating  fortunes of the four major parties over three polls  is shown below:

Perhaps more tellingly in the Newshub poll, is the gap between the populartity of the two major party leaders which remains wide — and even appears to be increasing. 

Labour's Chris Hipkin's personal popularity stands at 23.4% up 3.8  while Chistopher Luxon's is 16.4%, down 2.4.  

Even more telling when asked how in touch the leaders were with the issues of most concern to people,  49.9% of those polled backed Hipkins while Luxton's fortunes were the almost exact opposite. Some 47% of those polled said he was out of touch. 

If Luxon is pulling down National's support, deputy leader Nicola Willis may be the answer  but with so many recent changes in  leadership - Simon Bridges, Todd Muller, Judith Collins and now Luxon - and with only a few months left before the 14th October election a further leadership change may be too risky.

-- ACW