pn973. The Latest 1NewsKantar Public Poll results

I must confess to have been a little surprised by the poll results.  I'd expected National to have improved its position, given the floods and concerns about the cost of living.  But Labour's back-pedalling on a number of unpopular or not well understood issues and Chris Hipkin's public demeanour seem to have tipped things a little in Labour's favour (or at least, it lost less than National). Tonight's announcement of increases to benefits and pensions will tip them further.   But the difference between the two major parties is slight and is likely to jo-jo in coming months. The most notable change was increased support for the Greens, no doubt helped by increased climate crisis concerns. 

The cost of living was the major concern, mentioned by 48% of those polled. This was followed by climate change 12'%, health care 11%, crime 10%, tax cuts 5% and education 4%.  Eight percent thought of 'something else' and 2% did not know or refused to answer.

Writing earlier on other poll results I usually made some mention of methodology. Here are two further thoughts:

Why do polls not record people who have not enrolled, those who say they will not vote, those who object to state, and the undecided when calculating the party vote? Typically these people total over 17% of those polled.  Ignoring them tends to inflate the share of the vote of major parties and understate that of the smaller parties.

 Why also do polls  not record how people voted at the previous election and compare this with how they intend to vote now?

Finally, a get well message to Christopher Luxon. On top of his poor showing in the poll, he's now confined at home with his second covid infection.

-- ACW