pn875. Polls - Much Ado About (almost) Nothing

Those paying for them must think they serve a purpose but the results of most political polls over the past year have told us little we did not know; the results have rarely been statistically significant;  they often have not reported the large number of people who did not know or refused to answer; or the crucial role of the Māori Party in a close election.  

Most  do not mention the "background," what is happening at the time of the poll that could influence  results. Most dramatise their headlines leading readers to draw false conclusions. "Labour just ahead after crash in support" and "National surge ahead", and so on.

 Most speculate on the number of seats each party will hold. Almost always there will be secondary questions such as preferred PM and where the economy is headings, and no attempt is made to check the consistency of these answers with the main question, who those polled would vote for if an election was held now. 

  The methodology may be mentioned but no attempt will be made to explain what it means and does not mean. A  margin of error of  ±3.1%, for example, is only ±3.1% when the results are close to 50%. It narrows as the percentage declines. Thus, ±3.1% is probably okay for most National and Labour results but not for the results of the smaller parties.

The latest poll, conducted by Curia for the Taxpayers Union, and previously for the National Party, showed no "significant" difference in Labour and National support or answers on the preferred PM.   

ACT results have ossilated between 8 and 11% and "seem" to be related to National's—and perhaps the frequency of David Seymour's TV appearances.  The Greens and ACT are often neck and neck with the Greens slighly ahead in this poll.  All this demonstrates is the importance of these parties to Labour and National — as if we didn't know before. 

The future of the Māori Party rests of its co-leader winning his electorate. The drop from 2.3% in the 1NewsKantar poll  to 0.8% support in the Curia poll probably means nothing.

The next poll could be more useful. The "background" then will include the recent cut in the petrol tax, the reopening of borders, fewer mandates, the rising cost of living and whatever action may or may not have been taken on supermarket food prices, housing, welfare and health.

-- ACW