pn870. Another Meaningless and Badly Reported Poll

Oh, what a tangled web we weave

When first we practice to deceive.

 -- Walter Scott.

The press ­­­had it that "National overtakes Labour in the latest 1NewsKantar Public Poll" but that is not what the poll showed. 

True, National had 39% (up 7%) and Labour 37% (down 3%) of those polled  but some 10% said they did not know or refused to answer.   And the margin of error was ±3.1% which means the difference was not statistically significant. The lead was meaningless.

The press also showed that a National-Act coalition won 59 seats in parliament and Labour-Greens 58 seats, a narrow National-Act victory.  

But what they did not take into account were those who said they did not know or refused to answer and the Māori Party's three seats, assuming Rawiri Waititi retains Waiariki.  It is, of course, possible that the Māori Party would align itself with National but that seems unlikely. A Labour-Greens-Māori Party government seems the most likely outcome.

The preferred PM poll showed a trend away from Jacinda and growing support for Chris Luxon but Luxon was still far behind.  

While it can safely be said that the gap between Labour and National seems to be widening, what cannot be said is that National has overtaken Labour and seems poised to form the next government —the very claims the press made in their headings.  Why do they continue to misinform and mislead readers and listeners who are not poll-savvy? 

The handling of the Wellington protests 

Just as misleading was the press account of the poll results on the handling of the Wellington protests. A slight majority (46%) supported the way the Government handled the anti-mandate protest at Parliament, 43% said they disapproved and 11% didn't know. 

The question ignored the fact that it was the police and not the government who handled the protests, and that Labour's refusal to meet the protesters had the support of all parties.

 But what does approval and diassproval mean? That government/police should have done more or done less, or acted earlier or later? It is unclear what those polled were approving and disapproving.

Covid

Support of the vaccination of frontline workers (no jab, no job) was down from 74 to 60%, and those against increased from 20 to 32%.

But epidemiologist Dr Rod Jackson told 1News there has "never a more important time for all of the mandates".

He said an unvaccinated person is three times more likely to infect someone with Covid-19 than a vaccinated person.

"We have to get people as vaccinated as possible… it is the most important thing New Zealanders can do today.

"We need to slow down the pandemic, it's potentially out of control."

-- ACW