pn815. Māori Covid rates a matter of concern: Poor Te Tiriti-centred policies. Now typically over half of daily new cases

Dr Rawiri Taonui

Sunday's article in Te Ao Māori News provides information on Māori Covid rates and disparities between Māori and Pākehā. Dr Rawiti Taoniu predicts 6,000 Māori cases by Christmas.  Here are some of the facts:

Māori are the highest daily cases for 42 consecutive days. There was a new record of 121 Māori cases today. Māori cases are rising both in number as a percentage of all cases.

The three highest number of daily Māori cases have come in the last three days. Friday - 108 Māori cases or 53.7% of 201 new cases; Saturday - 103 or 58.9% of 175 new cases; and Sunday - 121 or 58.5% of 207 new cases.

This is the first-time new Māori cases have been over 50% of all new cases for three days in a row.

At the current 7-day rate of 91.9 new Māori cases per day, there will be 6,000 Māori cases by Christmas.

Māori are 45.6% of all active cases.

There is a high probability that Māori will become more than 50% of all active cases by the end of November.

100 Māori have been hospitalised.

There is a very high probability that Māori will have the highest hospitalisations by the end of this month.

Total Covid-19 Cases

Māori are 2,438 or 28% of all cases since Covid-19 first arrived in New Zealand.

Pākehā have the most cases on 2,914 (33.5%).

There is a high probability that Māori will become the highest impacted ethnicity by the end of November.

Poor Te Tiriti-centred policies

This will be the result of poor Te Tiriti-centred policies, including:

• Not drafting a Māori Pandemic plan in 2017 when the National Influenza Pandemic Plan was completed, poor testing during April last year.
• The development of a Māori Plan in April last year without consulting Māori.
• A failure to continue surveillance testing in July last year led to the Auckland August OutBreak.
• Locating Managed Isolation and Quarantine facilities in high-Māori demographic areas.
• A failure to include Māori on the Ministry of Health vaccination governance and operational committees.

And consequently, a poor structurally racist vaccine rollout earlier this year.

The Home Isolation Risk for Māori

New Zealand is experiencing higher infections among the partially vaccinated.

This is because the Pfizer vaccine is less effective on one dose, double vaccination takes two to three weeks to reach full protection, and because protection from the vaccine is lowered when vaccinated persons are isolating at home with positive cases.

This is a real risk for Māori. One British study shows that the protection for fully vaccinated isolating at home with infected cases can drop as low as 35% because  of continuous exposure to the virus.

About 1,885 positive cases are isolating at home with 2,365 whānau/family members in around 1,250 homes across the country. A considerable number are Māori.

Given the close proximity of whānau members, this represents a considerable risk of transmission, including to those who are vaccinated.

Kia noho haumaru,

Dr Rawiri Taonui

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