pn733. Three question marks hanging over the Pacific

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With one big question mark hanging over Samoa, it's easy to overlook two others. The Pacific has been far from tranquil lately.

The first question mark.

In Samoa, with its mixed constitution of western and traditional elements, the refusal of Tuilaepa to stepdown as PM to allow Fiame Mata'afa to assume power raises the question of what really is at stake.

Does Tuilaepa really think he did not lose the election? True, it was close, 25 to Tuilaepa's party and 26 to Fiame's, when the one independent MP decided to support her, but here one vote was as good as many. Fiame won the election, despite remonstrations from the Head of State and the Attorney-General who supported Tuilaepa. Heads of state are chosen from one of the four high chiefly families. The other three supported Fiame. One wonders how far personal and extended 'aiga family pride and influence are at stake? Or is there a hidden dragon in the woodpile as Chris Trotter maintains? 

Has Tuilaepa been doing deals with China so he had to hold on to power in case others found out? We may never know if Trotter is right when he says the best way to resolve the crisis is for Fiame to whisper in Tuilaepa's ear that she will never tell if he hands her the reigns. Meanwhile, we wait to know whether Samoa has one government, two or none.

The second question mark concerns the Pacific Forum, the Pacific's mini-UN and UN observer, that works "in support of Forum member governments, to enhance the economic and social well-being of the people of the South Pacific by fostering cooperation between governments and between international agencies, and by representing the interests of Forum members in ways agreed by the Forum".

It's 17-country membership seems likely to be reduced to 12 if its five Micronesian countries (Palau, Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Kiribati) exit as they seem likely to do following the election as Secretary-General of Cook Islander Henry Puna. Click here. 

They say there was a gentleman's agreement that Melanesia, Polynesia and Micronesia take turns with the leadership. Their candidate Marshall Islander Gerald Zachios, former Ambassador to the U.S.A.,  lost 8 votes to 9. The votes are confidential but it seems likely that Australian, NZ and possibly France voted for Puna in the belief that they could exercise more influence on a Cook Islander than a Marshall Islander who would likely be more influenced by the U.S.A. 

 Let's hope some way out is found before the end of the year when the Micronesian states will stay in or go out.  My view is that Australia and NZ exercise too much power in the Forum.

The third question mark concerns the ongoing saga of the University of the South Pacific whose Vice-Chancellor was unceremoniously deported from Fiji some months back and is currently living on Nauru. 

The shimozzle started when the new VC, Prof. Ahluwahia, accused the outgoing VC, Prof. Rajesh Chandra, of bypassing USP procedures in the granting of leave and promotions. Chandra's position was supported by the University Council's Chairperson Winston Thompson and the Fiji Government, and opposed by a number of USP staff and students and members of Council.

The issue looks close to some of resolution with this decision agreed to by most members of Council.   Ahluwahia's contract will be renewed for five years and the main campus possibly moved to Samoa.

The question that has not been asked is why Ahluwahia made the accusations in the first place. It seems to have achieved little other than deeply dividing the University. No leave or appointment has been withdrawn, and it is not that Chandra benefitted in any pecuniary way himself. It seems more likely in most cases he was taking shortcuts to avoid bureaucratic delays and infighting.

Perhaps Ahlwahia  should (like Fiame and Tuilaepa in Samoa) have whispered in Chandra's ear — and got on with the job.

It will greatly weaken USP if it moves to Samoa. Fiji is far more connected in every sense of the word — and the one supposed big deterrent, Bainimarama, must improve on his human rights record if he is to win the 2022 election.

-- ACW