pn637. A poll taken so soon after the election is a waste of time. Here's a suggestion on their better use

The preferred PM results

To hold a poll on preferred party and preferred Prime Minister a bare six weeks  after the 17 October election seems a waste of time and money. What significant changes —or changes that could not be anticipated—  could possibly have happened in that time, and how would the changes matter anyway?

But that is what we had last night.  

The 1News Comar Brunton poll,  taken between 28th November and December 2nd,  showed that Labour was up 3% on its election result (less than the margin of error!), National was down 0.8%, and the Greens and ACT, on 8% were a tweeny bit up on their election 7.9% result). Judith Collins was down 8% as preferred  PM (as was to be expected) but her "approval rating" as leader of National was up 9 from a previous 6. How could this be? The rating is calculated by subtracting "disapprovals" from "approvals" (in this case, 35% and 45% resulting in 9).  But what is not taken into account in the measurement are the number of those polled who refused to comment or had no opinion. In this case it was 21%, a number so high it made the remaining result meaningless.

A poll taken six months or a year after an election could provide useful insights on changes in public opinion; one taken so soon after October's election is merely fodder for the media.

Questions on issues

It would, in my opinions, be far more useful if Colmar Brunton and other pollsters asked questions on issues that could be instructive to policy makers, government and the opposition.

For example:

• Do you think major laws and referenda should be reviewed one year after they have passed parliament so that they may be endorsed, amended or removed?
• Would you be prepared to pay one percent more personal tax so that more money could be allocated to health, education and other essential government expenditure?
• Do you think that our school children should learn a second language, or at least the basics of a second language?
• Do you think the pension retirement age should be kept at 65 for a while, or progressively increased to 70?
• Some of our historic statues and monuments cause offence to Maori.  Do you think they should be removed, or have a plaque added that explains the Maori position?
• The Covid pandemic has resulted in suggestions on its limitation. How often a week, and where, do you wear a mask?

The questions would, of course, need to be moderated by the pollsters, but you should get the general idea.

What do you think?

-- ACW