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This won't be easy given her work as a mother, a wife and the demands on the country's leader. Think Christchurch, China. She's been looking quite gaunt on TV lately.
The election prediction is based on several factors:
■ National's Simon Bridges inability to make any traction and Judith Collins not yet ready to challenge his leadership;
■ ACT just holding on thanks to the bequeathed Epsom electorate, but unlikely to grow;
■ NZ First staggering on but unlikely to change sides even if Shane Jones takes over the leadership;
■ Greens is also not growing but it will support Labour, and a centre-right Greens party, if ever is a long way down the line;
■ if Labour retains Maori support, the Maori Party is dead,
■ and with Gareth Morgan's resignation TOPS seems a long way from making the 5% threshold.
■ But the biggest factor by far is Jacinda Ardern whose popularity continues to grow.
She's responded with compassion and strength to the Christchurch massacre; compromised and stood firm in holding the Coalition together; consulted and listened on all major issues of contention, and shown a degree of independence in international affairs, maintaining New Zealand's reputation for play overweight for a country of its size. Even Australians want her as their Prime Minister!
My fear is that she may burn out. To avoid this she needs more leisure time, more time with Gayford, more time with Neve and more help from nannies, more help from colleagues and the Labour Party and its partners. She needs to be pampered, cuddled, loved. Many good nights' sleep, time daydreaming in the sauna, and her feet up with a good book.
In Christchurch, a schoolgirl asked her "How are you?" Jacinda replied she was okay and then typically went on to talk about how New Zealand was. I think the schoolgirl meant how are you personally. It was a good question. One of the most important she's been asked for a long time.
Labour can win without Jacinda in 2020 but it will be no walkover. Look after yourself Jacinda. We need you
--ACW
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