Fiji Election Statistics: Rushing in Where Angels Fear to Tread

pn177

When a statistic appears incredible, it is either true (but incredible), false (and probably misleading) — or merely a typo error.


When people see an incredible statistic, they should be especially careful before declaring it a cheat or a fraud.

Cheaters and fraudsters go to incredible lengths (no pun intended) to conceal their trickery. They do not publish where everyone can see. And yet this is what the Fiji Election Office did. Out there in the broad daylight for the Multinational Observer Group, the media, those opposed to FijiFirst, and every Fijian could see. That should have been a warning to those who called "fraud."

Among those to jump in where angels fear to tread was NFP candidate Jone Dakuvula who wrote:

"Friends we need to look at the published election result for the re organised Eastern Division. 25,667 registered voters,17,0443 (sic! Presumably 17,443) votes cast.Published result,34,291 Fiji First,35,601 Sodelpa,5057 NFP, 1152 Unity,392 FLP, 444 Hope, That means 51,093 at least ghost voters or 59,420 if you minus those who actually voted,.

"This Election is a complete fraud perpetrated on the people of Fiji by NADRA of Pakistan in collusion with Fiji First and the Elections office"

And from Joe Gonewai on Facebook much of the same.

"We have ghost voters ... a tampered system by NADRA which has resulted in fabricated results that... have gone to the President."
He cites 69,304 people in Eastern voting for FijiFirst and SODELPA, with only 17,342 voting of the 25,667 registered to vote. That is 51,962 more voting for the two parties than actually voted.  He asks "have these 51,962 people returned after Noah's flood?"  


Had Jone and Joe checked more closely, they would have seen that they were using early figures; not the final figures shown in the table below. They also used the Administrative District figures instead of  those for the Logistics District shown in the table below.

Thus, Joe's 69,304 is less than the 76,750 and only 90.3% of those who voted, and Jone's 76, 937 is a little over 100%. I suspect Jone's party figures are also not the final ones.

So, there was an ark and Joe was part of it.

The animals went in two by two Hoorah! Hoorah! The animals went in two by two Hoorah! Hoorah! The animals went in two by two The elephant and the kangaroo And they all went into the ark For to get out of the rain.

Note that the official total voted figures for both the Administrative and Logistics District are the same, and can be used as a check on each other.

 Registered Voters and Voted by District 2014 and 2018

		2014		2018
		Administrative District		Administrative District		Logistics District
	District	Registered	Voted	Registered	Voted	Registered	Voted
	Central	247393	208189	261404	183948	212550	148131
	% Voted		84.2		70.4		69.7
	Eastern	25121	19370	25376	17181	105600	76750
	% Voted		97.1		67.7		72.6
	Western	223867	189727	242166	176323	211126	152766
	% Voted		84.5		72.8		72.4
	Northern	89212	74317	92625	67755	92295	67560
	% Voted		83.3		73.1		73.2
	Postal	n.a.		9128	9128	9128	9128
	% Voted				100		100
	TOTAL	585593	491603	630699	454335	630699	454335

                                                                                       Source: Fiji Elections Office App.


Joe Gonewai's incorrect conclusions were taken up by others in his Fiji Critical Thinkers Facebook group.

Not surprisingly, the  string of comments by his followers showed no confidence in the election results.  

One asked, "Can you put this in The Fiji Times so the whole of Fiji may know?" Another's "omg" was more brief, and another, "This is why as community agents of SODELPA party are still waiting."
                              
The damage done to the public's perception of a fair election must be considerable.

See also my next posting pn178 "Fiji Elections: Why Opposition Bloggers say the Results are a Fraud." 


-- ACW