Another Negative Poll, Another Typical Day

The media heading "New Zealand Workers Lose confidence in the Job Market" is typically sensational. Let us look as the facts.  My emphases are in bold.

The September quarter Westpac McDermott Miller Employee Confidence Index fell 2.9 points but remained in positive territory at 114.5. points, and fewer workers in paid work expected a pay rise any time soon (but still 27.5%), compared with 32.9%, the lowest level in three years. Wage growth has been relatively static in recent years despite growth in the economy. This suggests that some employers are not passing on the improvement to their workers.

Government data show average weekly earnings for a full-timer in the private sector rose 3.5 percent to $1,104.70 in the June quarter from a year earlier, outpacing the 3.3 percent increase in hourly wages to $28.97. Average weekly ordinary hours worked, however,  rose an annual 0.3 percent to 38 hours, the most since records began in 1989. This suggests that some employers are not passing on the improvement to their workers.

The private sector's lack of optimism matched declines shown in previously-reported consumer and business sentiment surveys. The fall of 3.1 points to 116 contrasts with Public sector employee confidence, up 4.5 points to 119.8. following the recent pay equity settlements with public sector staff such as nurses and social workers..

While the Westpac figures trend downwards, they remained in positive territory, nearly one-half of paid workers had a wage increase last year, and 27.5%, as noted above, expect a wage increase "anytime soon." 

Allowing for a margin of error (that Westpac should state in its reports) the trend may not be significant, though with rising petrol prices, rents, insurance and the cost of living a new context emerges that could well have negative results. 

Context

The "context" is influenced by 1. global economic trends over which NZ has no control, 2. by Government increasing taxes on consumers to help pay for long-overdue improvements to infrastructure and regional and social inequalities, and 3. uncertainty about the outcome of reports to Government, for example, on capital gains and taxes on farmers to deduce their environmental footprint. Short and middle-term pain may be needed for long-term gain.  

Meanwhile, IRG's Sharechat reports that recent data showed the NZ economy to have growth higher than expected.  I didn't see this mentioned in the mainstream media. Did you?

** See "Why are Polls so Often Inaccurate" (pn40) for an analysis of 1News Colmar Brunton and two Fiji polls, and "Business Confidence and the Real Economy" (pn60) for an analysis of ANZ polls.

--ACW pn103