Poll Results and Comments
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| Election results."I see a man. No, a woman, in your life" |
Colmar
Brunton and most New Zealand political polls were remarkably accurate
close to the 2014 election as this table from the National Business
Review shows. The polls differed little from each other and were very
close to the actual election results shown on the bottom line. Pn26
A
month earlier, however, Colmar Brunton was not as accurate. It had
Labour on 37% purportedly due to the “Jacinda Effect”, National
on 44%, NZFirst on 10%, and the Greens on 4%, under the 5% threshold
and out of the elections. A Stuff
heading
read “Green Party out of Parliament, Labour surges in new poll”.
One
wonders whether polls improve as they get closer to elections.
Fiji
polling in 2014
Fiji
polling has not been as accurate. A Tebbutt poll held three
weeks before the Fiji 2014 Election produced the heading “Fiji
Election: Final pre-election poll shows a drop in support for Frank
Bainmarma's Fiji First Party”.
Asked
for preferred prime minister (the preferred political party question
was not asked!) Bainimarama polled 49%, down from 60% a month
earlier, and Ro Temumu polled 20%, up from 17%. The ABC stated
that if the “results were translated into votes on election day …
Bainimarama would have to form a coalition.”
And Fiji academic Professor Brij Lal from the Australian
National University supported this view, saying “the (decline ) in
the the poll results were not unexpected,... so a coalition
government is very much on the cards ...with either SODELPA or with
other minor parties which might win some seats”.
The
actual election result, as shown in the table below, proved them all
wrong.
FijiFirst won 59.2% of the votes; SODELPA 28.2% and NFP 5.%. No other party crossed the 5% threshold.
FijiFirst won 59.2% of the votes; SODELPA 28.2% and NFP 5.%. No other party crossed the 5% threshold.
The main contenders in 2018
(Left-right) Voqere (Frank) Bainimarama FijiFirst, Ro Teimumu Kepu Social Democratic Liberal Pary (SODELPA), Dr Biman Prasad National Federation Party, Sitiveni Rabuka, Chairman SODELPA, and Mahendra Chaudhry, Fiji Labour Party.
FijiSun/Razor
poll results
It
is exceedingly difficult to obtain a chronological view of poll
results over time because the newspapers (and the FijiSun with
its more frequent polls has created most problems) seldom
reports results and comments in a consistent manner. While most
times, reports show the results for the major parties, at other times
the focus has been on preferred prime minister or the number of
parliamentary seats won or lost. My
“best effort” is shown in the table below.
FijiSun/Razor
Poll Results (%)
|
|||||||||
Approximate
polling dates
|
Nov
2017
|
April
2018
|
May
12
|
May
25
|
(a)
|
May
29
|
'July
21
|
July
27
|
Aug
3
|
Fiji
First Party
|
63
|
62
|
53
|
63
|
65
|
60
|
67
|
57
|
|
Social
Democratic Liberal Party SODELPA
|
21
|
16.8
|
16
|
16
|
19
|
15
|
26
|
18
|
26
|
National
Federation Party NFP
|
3
|
5.2
|
5
|
5
|
5.1
|
10
|
6
|
6
|
8.9
|
Fiji
Labour Party FLP
|
3
|
1.2
|
7
|
7
|
3.7
|
5
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
Undecided
(b)
|
10
|
14.8
|
19
|
9
|
5
|
4
|
8
|
4.4
|
|
a. See paragraph below.
b. And minor parties.
I have
been unable to obtain the poll results for some weeks. For example, the May 29 Sun's
Battle for iTaukei Votes in Full Swing reported that SODELPA support “dropped 19 percent to 15 percent” compared
with last week, and the FLP and FLP respectively increasing their
support from 5.1 to 10% and 3.7 to 5%. No mention is made of
FijiFirst support, other parties or the undecided – and the figures
mentioned do not match those of the previous week.(See (a) in table).
My efforts to obtain poll results from the Sun by email have so far not been successful.
The
Sun put the assumed
SODELPA drop by May 29 was put down to “internal divisions on a
number of issues” and the appointment of iTaukei Pio Tikodudua as
the President of the NFP that historically has obtained most of its
votes from Indo-Fijians.
By
July 21, however, SODELPA was seen to have “pulled away from the
opposition pack” and the “National Federation Party … failed to
live up to expectation”.
Weekly
changes in poll proportions, which have been rarely statistically
significant, do not merit these conclusions.
The
Sun's
political leaning was also reflected in another poll question that
week on whether people thought Opposition parties were using race and
religion in their campaigns. Most (60%) said yes, 21% no, and 19%
were unsure. I wonder whether those interviewed were also asked what
FijiFirst was using in its campaign?
By
August 3 the Sun's
Nemani
Delaibatiki had revised his position. He claimed the NFP was
“rebuilding” and could hold “the balance of power” NFP leader
Biman Prasad took this up saying he could become the “Winston Peters of Fiji.”
This view echoed the “coalition” prediction – which proved to be very wide of the mark – made by Brij Lal before the 2014 election. Delaibatiki, however, noted Prasad was calling for an election now because it appears .support s slipping away from their grasp.” I'm left wondering whether the NFP is holding or slipping.
This view echoed the “coalition” prediction – which proved to be very wide of the mark – made by Brij Lal before the 2014 election. Delaibatiki, however, noted Prasad was calling for an election now because it appears .support s slipping away from their grasp.” I'm left wondering whether the NFP is holding or slipping.
Overstatements
and using polls for political end
Political parties everywhere seek to divide their opposition
with talk of internal divisions, leadership rivalry, and possible
coalition arrangements. Fiji is no exception.
Opinions
based on poll results include the Sun's
May
12 ….
Kepa grabs lead from
Rabuka. She scored 12% leaving “Rabuka trailing (sic!)” at 11
percent” – a one percent difference. It
went on to stoke the fires with ”While
there have been unity moves … the gap between the Ro Teimumu camp
and Mr Rabuka's camp is widening.”
If
they are, it will certainly help Fiji First.
The
NFP candidate's support compared with NFP leader Biman Prasad's
2%, Bainimarama's 64% and Rabuka's 23%.Soar away!
Tebbutt
polls
A later Tebbutt poll showed her on 8% of possible women
prime ministers, well behind SODELPA's Ro Teimumu on 49%, Lynda
Tabuya on 14%, and FijiFirst's Rosy Akbar on 13%.
These
statements followed on from a Tebbutt poll in March that showed 70%
of those polled said Fiii is ready for woman prime minister, and
Prof Ratuva thought “Fiji might (have one) after this year's
general election.”
Comments
by both papers often amount to unsupported hypebole. In March Fiji
Sun /Razor
poll, reported a “week of political dynamism” with Rabuka and Ro
Teimumu “neck and neck” on 11%. A week earlier Rabuka had been
on 20% but Ro Teimuma's 5% was due to her candidacy being uncertain.
All that had happened in the week of dynamism was her confirmed
candidacy. Nothing had really changed.
The
poll showed FijiFirst at 32% down from 37% a year earlier, SODELPA
at 22%, NFP at 3%, 1% for FLP and a very large 34% undecided, down
from 40% a year earlier.
Ratuva put aside the undecided and from those who had stated a party preference he concluded FijiFirst would win 56%, SODELPA 38% and NFP 5% which would give FijiFirst only 16 parliamentary seats while the opposition parties would have 13 seats, leaving 21 seats to be filled by the undecided. If a high proportion of the undecided do not vote FijiFirst, Ratuva thinks the election will result in a coalition government. Prof Brij Lal said this about the 2014 election, and he was shown to be very wrong.
The
large undecided vote is worrying and its causes are far from clear.
They have remained between 35-40% for a year. But this kind of
statistical adjustment and speculation does not make things clearer.
Comment
from politicians and the street
Opposition
leader Sitiveni Rabuka commenting on Tebbutt polls that suggest a
decline in the vote for FijiFirst says the polls show a “paradigm
shift” while FLP leader Mahendra Chaudhry says “people are
looking for a more dynamic leader (than Bainimarama) “with a clear
vision for Fiji.” Both claim the polls support their opinions.
Street
opinion
on the polls include these from FirstFirst opponents:
“There's something
wrong with the polls or the people are dumb“
“The polls could be
right. The people are blindfolded.”
“People are
distracted by rugby...”
“The vibe on the
street is that people want change. You can almost feel the tension in
the air”
“I know people who
voted FijiFirst but will change their vote this time”
“Democracy is dead
as shown by the poll results””
- The Fiji population is very diverse making accurate sample polls difficult.
- While the Tebbutt poll methodology is generally better than the Razor polls, it also is far from perfect. And a better methodology does not necessarily produce more accurate results.
- The FijiSun/Razor and FijiTimes/Tebbutt polls often often arrive at very different conclusions, probably due to differing methodology and political leaning.
- The large undecided vote on the Tebbutt polls is a matter of concern but its causes are probably multiple, and discussion on its causes purely speculative.
- Few of the results are statistically significant.
- Few informed conclusions can be made on the results. Opinions are fine, but they are not necessarily facts.
Overseas research has shown that political polls can influence public opinion, especially among the truly undecided or when there has been a new “cataclysmic” event. They have also been shown to lead to tactical voting, going along with the majority, or changing sides to be more acceptable, Minority parties are most likely to be affected.
There has been no research in Fiji on the influence of polls but my work on Fiji political blogs2 concluded that most people read and supported blogs that “confirmed their predispositions.” I think this is also likely for polls.
All political polls ask people what they think of government. Putting the boot on the other foot, it would be pleasing to see government polls which ask the people what they think.
Government's present use of walkabouts, consultations, commissions and standing committees fails all tests on random representative sampling!
NOTES
1. https://asiapacificreport.nz/2018/03/05/undecided-up-for-grabs-and-decisive-for-fiji-election-says-academic/
and http://newcloudfto.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=4366732. http://newcloudfto.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=436673
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