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| Prof. Wadan Narsey |
Bainimarama and the Pacific Islands Forum:
a Storm in a Calm Ocean
By Prof. Wadan Narsey
Thinking members of the public would have been pleased to see the Chair of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) announce that Fiji was being admitted back into this regional organization.
But immediately, they would have been horrified that Bainimarama is demanding,
as a pre-condition, that either Australia and NZ relinquish being full
members and become only development partners like Japan, China, Korea
and USA OR that these other countries are allowed to become full
members.
This
unnecessary aggression from Bainimarama does not help his other
government ministers in their work, it does not help the Fiji people in
their relations with Australia and NZ, it does not help the other Forum
member countries, it does not help the Forum staff in their work, and it
undermines Bainimarama’s own personal standing in the diplomatic
world..
It
is a pity that the Fiji First Party does not have senior advisers who
could encourage Bainimarama to make the transition from his stormy eight
years of military dictatorship to being an elected prime minister
accountable to his people, and working diplomatically in their
interests.
Both Bainimarama and Fiji stand to gain, if he could.
The expulsion fall-out
Fiji was expelled from the Forum when Bainimarama failed to hold elections in May 2009.
The
argument was that the Forum wanted to give a clear signal to the region
that it seriously disapproved of the illegal removal of a lawfully
elected government.
Whether
the instigator of the expulsion was Australia or not and whether that
decision, in hindsight, was a wise one for the Forum Secretariat to
make, will be debated till the cows come home.
But
the expulsion, along with travel sanctions and the mutual expulsion of
high commissioners, ruined political relations between Fiji and its two
traditional donors and split the Forum. The investment climate was
damaged as potential investors worried about how badly relations could
deteriorate.
To
the relief of many, the tourism industry and many aid projects, as well
as people-to-people relationships and emigration to Australia and NZ,
continued as usual, although investment did not recover.
Fiji
also strengthened extremely beneficial foreign relations with and
sources of funding from countries such as China, India and Malaysia. By
and large, it escaped the diplomatic freeze with Australia and NZ
relatively unscathed.
The continued aggression
It
is natural that the Bainimarama Government is still unhappy with
Australia and NZ given their opposition to his coup over the last eight
years.
But
that opposition was a principled one on the basis that it was
unacceptable for a military coup to depose a lawfully elected
government, and this was not a precedent to be encouraged elsewhere in
the Pacific.
The
Bainimarama Government should acknowledge that it has been a military
dictatorship for eight years, with no accountability to the ordinary
people of Fiji (not having been elected by them). Their hostility
towards Australia and NZ did not need to take into account the people’s
views.
But
since the September 17 elections, with Bainimarama elected as the Prime
Minister of Fiji, he also loses that total freedom he had previously.
An elected accountable government
The
Bainimarama Government is now a democratically elected government,
representing the interests of the majority of the voters of this
country, and accountable to them.
Without
fear of contradiction, one can say that the majority of the people of
Fiji would like the complete normalization of relations with Australia
and NZ, without any unnecessary and unwarranted aggression on the part
of their elected leaders.
With
tens of thousands of Fijian families having emigrated to Australia and
NZ, there are many family ties between Fiji and both countries, and any
chilling of relations would be to their disadvantage, on both sides.
The
majority of Fiji military personnel and their families have welcomed
the normalization of relations: they have no wish to go back to the dark
days between 2009 and 2014 when they were banned from traveling to
Australia and NZ.
The
majority of Fiji citizens who have taken up board memberships despite
the sanctions, and those who are now willing to take on these social
responsibilities in the future, have also welcomed the normalization of
relations and the ending of travel bans on them.
The
large numbers of our students who go to study in Australia, and the
large numbers of labourers for whom temporary guest worker schemes may
soon open up in Australia and NZ, would also not like to see any further
deterioration in relations between Fiji and Australia, in case their
opportunities in Australia and NZ are affected.
The
ordinary people of Fiji wish to see the close, warm relations with the
Australian and NZ governments that existed pre-2006, and which they know
very well cannot be replaced by Fiji’s new relations with China, India,
Malaysia or Russia.
In
the thawing of Fiji’s foreign relations with Australia and NZ, the
elected Bainimarama Government is duty bound to place the people’s
interest first, and not their leaders’ own egos.
The
Bainimarama Government should note that there are many fronts on which
the ordinary people of Fiji can benefit from more favorable foreign
policy treatment by Australia and NZ: temporary work visas, easier
immigration entry for permanent residency or holidays, strengthening of
military ties, greater integration in sports such as rugby, soccer and
netball, and in culture, disaster relief, policing and protection of
national economic zones against illegal fisheries, etc.
Most
important, it is on the cards that renewed confidence by both foreign
and local investors may drive economic growth well above the 4% or so
currently predicted for the next few years, and nothing should be done
to undermine this burst of confidence and investment.
These
positive developments can only be encouraged if Australia and NZ view
our government as friendly and co-operative, instead of being
unnecessarily aggressive and hostile, the stance currently being
projected by the Bainimarama Government.
Adapting diplomatically
Bainimarama
must surely know that Forum cannot and will not give in to his
“ultimatum” to expel Australia and NZ as full members, given that they
are the ones who provide the funds to keep the Forum going, not the
other countries on whose behalf Fiji claims to be speaking.
China,
Korea, Japan and US must be diplomatically affronted, astonished or
just merely amused, that Fiji is demanding that they be included as full
members of the Forum without them being asked, or without asking for it
themselves.
Other
Forum countries, especially those of the Melanesian Spearhead Group,
who have been torn apart these last eight years because of the
conflicting pulls of being on good terms with Australia and NZ (who are
vital to their economies) and giving fraternal support to Fiji, would
like to see an end to the turbulence in the Forum and a return to their
annual meetings with peaceful wining and dining.
Let
us also not forget that unnecessary diplomatic spats between Forum
member countries must also be extremely demoralizing for the staff of
the Forum Secretariat, who would like to focus on their tasks at hand
and not be thinking perpetually about Fiji’s ‘Damocles Sword’ hanging
over them. Their predicament is made worse with the establishment by
Fiji of a competing Pacific Island Development Forum, funded by China.
Foreign
Minister Inoke Kubuabola, whatever gloss he puts on the Fiji statement,
must be tearing his hair out to see his hard work at rebuilding good
relations with our traditional partners being undone by continuing
diplomatic aggression from his prime minister.
Many
other ministers (and their ministries) who also work closely with
important Australian and NZ aid projects in Fiji will find relationships
made more difficult.
It
is a pity that the Bainimarama/Khaiyum elections strategy and results
give the appearance that Bainimarama is the only popular Fiji First
Party candidate, and that the others in his Cabinet have little
democratic mandate and popular support in their own right.
It
is a pity that the Fiji First Party does not have a depth of secure
leadership that could confidently advise Bainimarama to put his stormy
diplomatic past behind, and trim his sails to the calmer ocean that Fiji
has steered to after the September elections.
Not
only would Bainimarama benefit personally, but so also would Fiji if
such diplomatic storms are not unnecessarily created in our calm Pacific
ocean.
Postscript
A
diplomatic solution may be in the offing. The Bainimarama Government
has agreed to Australia’s proposal to have a meeting in Sydney in 2015
to discuss the architecture of all the regional organizations,
presumably including the Forum Secretariat and Pacific Islands
Development Forum, largely funded by China. What will come of it is
anyone’s guess. Probably there will be a greater role for China and
India in the regional organizations, and no doubt a greater collective
co-ordination and rationalization of aid that countries like Australia
and NZ already attempt.
Wadan
Narsey is Adjunct Professor, The Cairns Institute, James Cook
University and former Professor of Economics, The University of the
South Pacific.
12 comments:
Dr Narsey makes several important points, not least the need for the current Fiji government to work out how to make the transition from an unelected regime to one which has majority electoral support. Being anti-ANZ may of course be popular and assist this transition, even if it is done crudely. The advice the PM and Fji First received in running their electoral campaign was very effective: whether an organisation which has an appalling human rights record internationally is appropriate to provide further advice now the government has been elected seems doubtful.
However I agree with the general thrust of the Fiji government's position on the Forum: ANZ should be treated like other donor countries and take a similar relationship with Japan et al in PIF. That down-grading may even assist ANZ to lift their game in how they treat South Pacific countries where nationalism is an increasingly powerful sentiment.
However Dr Narsey is incorrect in an important aspect of his argument when he states: `It is natural that the Bainimarama Government is still unhappy with Australia and NZ given their opposition to his coup over the last eight years.
But that opposition was a principled one on the basis that it was unacceptable for a military coup to depose a lawfully elected government, and this was not a precedent to be encouraged elsewhere in the Pacific.'
Yet ANZ had previously encouraged the overthrow of an elected government, not publicly in advance but in 1999-2001 during the planning for and after the fact when both countries' governments refused to demand or even call for the re-instatement of the People's Coalition government. John Locke's emphasis on tacit consent springs to mind.The Speight takeover and then election of the Qarase government received effective approval from ANZ: principles nil, pragmatic opportunism one. The Australian Coalition government's sanctions imposed against the 2006 takeover was similar pragmatic opportunism, In 2006 the Australian position was dressed up as a matter of principle when it was mainly driven by opposition to what had been deposed in Fiji: commercial buccaneers more in ideological sympathy with what the Coalition represented in Australia. In 2006 the Australian position was dressed up as opposition to military rule rather than in 2000 enthusiasm for indigenous rights and opposition to a Fili Labour Party-led government.
In Australia during both coups the John Howard-led government was conservative, even reactionary. Conservatives as is so often proclaimed, don't do principles, only pragmatism. Alexander Downer, then Foreign Minister in 2006 who imposed sanctions admitted last year on Australian television that his first responsibility as minister was to represent Australian firms when the government of East Timor sought to renegotiate unfavourable leases in the Timor Sea, Never mind that country is impoverished and battling to bring anything like development to some of the poorest people on earth. Peter Reith, the recent front-man on the Multinational Observer Group, was a prominent anti-union, anti-Labor Party hit man. Regarding Reith, best known in Australia as the advocate for training strike breakers in the Middle East and balaclava-disguised goons to break a waterfront strike, as fit to pronounce on Fiji's transition to democracy was just one of the ironies of the recent election. To its shame and ultimate inability to affect events in Fiji, the Labor Party government led by Kevin Rudd picked on the anti-union practices of the military regime to keep following the conservative lead.
Don't expect principle as the basis for government policy, Dr Narsey-follow the money and political practices which support those who accumulate it.
Bravo, Scott MacWilliam.
What will Wadan say now to above comments?
Since when in the last twenty-seven years have the interests of the 'ordinary Fijian' had value more than a brass razoo?
so the solution is for Aus and NZ EU and US to support every coup in the region if the plotters feel they are well intentioned?? I like that standard if ity going to be applied to everyone and is going to apply from now on. I look forward to those governments coming out in support and recognition of the next coup to topple Baimimarama just as he did Qarase. BTW what is the 'first' responsibility of an Australian foreign minister,? to represent the wishes of the military regime in fiji??? FOff . It is breathtaking to see that apologists for the regime and their deess blame everyone else for policies that were brought about by fiji's military. There was no popular uprising of local people, no riots, nothing of the kind. The fact is the military were thratend and they acted for themselves and their own interests and the rest was made up as they went along to sustain their own power to this day. 'Natural that the Bainimarama Government is still unhappy with Australia and NZ', well so what. we will get around to him when we are good and ready. I notice though he already has a stack of things he wants from us as some kind of reward or sense of entitlement. He can FOff too!
Fact is: the Forum needs Fiji, more than Fiji needs to Forum.
In the light of a new and more inclusive regional architecture being promoted by Fiji, the Forum can now be considered .."a wart on the arse of history" (with apologies to Jim Anthony)
Listen to the chin dribblers. The bitter old mongoose fools are out on the loose tonight.
@ Ratu Ghandu
Waden is not a 'chin dribbler' etc. He has articulated his position quite clearly.
If name calling is the best you can do, then please stay away.
A 'small' wart, Bill.
Oh yes, Bill, 'quite clearly'--so clearly in fact that in circles where foreign policy and diplomacy are seriously discussed by the well informed, Wadan Narsey has clearly shown how shallow and simplistic he is. More and more, Wadan sounds like his brother-in-law, Brij Lal--full of sound and fury signifying not very much.
Warden ANZ see themselves as cousins they both think of the other Pacific countries as backwards! All that is played in front of the TV is for the local audience in ANZ. Ratu Mara was also known to have the same line of thoughts as Bainimarama so nothing new. Our relatives in the Pacific are already bought & sold to either Australia or NZ- their Leaders will do what ever the leaders of ANZ demands! The Forum cannot exist in its current form its as simple as that , the days for dealing with Fiji and other South Pacific countries by ANZ has too be re-looked.Look how our people use to get treated waiting to get a visa at the Aussie High Commission in Tamavua yeh thats our neighbours Warden yet their relatives from UK are the largest numbers of overstayers???
Warden just needs to move on like it or lump it Frank is here to stay!
Its a pity that Warden's writing are now just conceded by some to be just that - a reading paper! Give it up Warden its eating you up get on with life -no ones going back -it happens all over the world eg Germany is now back screwing the EU countries that bombed the shit out of her during the Wars no one really cares.
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