Wednesday, September 10, 2014
The Latest Poll Results
Note: the other political parties have been on less than 5% except for the FLP and PDP that reached this figure in the June 28 poll.
The latest opinion polls give some indication of voter opinions in urban areas. The Razor Poll is smaller but it conducts four polls to every one of the larger Tebbutt Polls, making the grouped samples broadly similar in size. The Tebbutt Poll is more truly random and will reflect a wider spectrum of opinions in the urban and peri-urban areas sampled than the Razor Poll that represents the opinion of people who catch buses within the urban areas and between the urban areas and neighbouring rural areas.
The latest polls were taken before Fiji First released its Manifesto.
The latest The FijiTimes/Tebbutt Poll showed Bainimarama the preferred PM for 49% of those interviewed (down from 60%) and Ro Teimumu at 20%, up from 17%,
FijiFirst was the preferred political party of 45%, SODELPA 21% and 10% were unsure. The Tebbutt poll is based on a random sample of 1,137 households in urban and peri-urban areas. The political polls have been conducted monthly, and the margin of error is about 3%.
The Fiji Sun/Razor poll is based on weekly samples of 600 people at urban bus stops in the Western (200), Northern (100) and Central Divisions (300). The margin of error for people using buses in these areas is about 4%.
The last poll before the Elections showed Bainimarama to be the preferred PM on 67% (down from 70%), Ro Teimumu was unchanged on 25%, Biman Prasad was on 6% (up from 4%) and Felix Anthony dropped from 2% to on 0%.
Of the preferred political parties, FijiFirst stayed on 68% from the previous week, SODELPA dropped from 27% to 23%, NFP was on 6% (up from 4%), PDP was on 2% and FLP was unchanged on 1%.
The results over the past few weeks have shown the gap between FF and SODELPA closing slightly , though this final poll was taken before the release of the FF Manifesto which could see FF gaining more support . The debate this coming Sunday between Ro Teimumu and Bainimara could also influence their respective standing.
While minor fluctuations can be attributed to either a trend, the margin of error, or both, it would seem that of the minor parties only the NFP has a chance of crossing the 5% threshold unless their fortunes greatly improve over the next seven days.
Pollsters asked to take their pick
Last week the Razor poll asked, "If you had to pick between FijiFirst and SODELPA to run Fiji, which one would you pick?" 68% said FijiFirst, 28% SODELPA and 4% were not sure.
This week's question "Would Ro Teimumu Kepa make a better prime minister than Voqere Bainimarama?" produced similar results: 69% said Ro Treimumu would not make a better PM, 26% said she would, and 5% were not sure.
These answers were consistent with the general poll results.