Wednesday, 10 September 2014

The Latest Poll Results

Note: the other political parties have been on less than 5% except for the FLP and PDP that reached this figure in the June 28 poll.

The latest opinion polls give some indication of voter opinions in urban areas. The Razor Poll is smaller but it conducts four polls to every one of the larger Tebbutt Polls, making the grouped samples broadly similar in size. The Tebbutt Poll is more truly random and will reflect a wider spectrum of opinions in the urban and peri-urban areas sampled than the Razor Poll that represents the opinion of people who catch buses within the urban areas and between the urban areas and neighbouring rural areas. 

The latest  polls were taken before Fiji First released its Manifesto. 

 The latest The FijiTimes/Tebbutt Poll  showed Bainimarama the preferred PM for 49% of those interviewed (down from 60%) and Ro Teimumu at 20%, up from 17%, 

FijiFirst was the preferred political party of 45%, SODELPA 21% and 10% were unsure. The Tebbutt poll is based on a random sample of 1,137 households in urban and peri-urban areas. The political polls have been conducted  monthly, and the margin of error is about 3%. 

The Fiji Sun/Razor poll is based on weekly samples of 600 people at urban bus stops in the Western (200), Northern (100) and Central Divisions (300). The margin of error for people using buses in these areas is about 4%. 
The last poll before the Elections showed 
 Bainimarama to be the preferred PM  on 67% (down from 70%), Ro Teimumu was unchanged on 25%, Biman Prasad was on 6% (up from 4%) and  Felix Anthony dropped from 2% to on 0%.  

Of the preferred political parties, FijiFirst stayed on 68% from the previous week,  SODELPA  dropped from 27% to 23%, NFP was on 6% (up from 4%), PDP was on 2% and FLP was unchanged on 1%. 

The results over the past few weeks have shown  the gap  between FF and SODELPA closing slightly , though this final poll was taken before the release of the FF Manifesto which could see FF gaining more support . The debate this coming Sunday between Ro Teimumu and Bainimara could also influence their respective standing.  

While minor fluctuations can be attributed to either a trend, the margin of error, or both, it would seem that of the minor parties only the NFP has a chance of crossing the 5% threshold unless their fortunes greatly improve over the next seven days.

Pollsters asked to take their pick

Last week the Razor poll asked,  "If you had to pick between FijiFirst and SODELPA to run Fiji, which one would you pick?" 68% said FijiFirst, 28% SODELPA and 4% were not sure.  

This week's question "Would Ro Teimumu Kepa make a better prime minister than Voqere Bainimarama?" produced similar results: 69% said Ro Treimumu would not make a better PM, 26% said she would, and 5% were not sure.

These answers were consistent with the general poll results. 


  1. Which just begs the question Croz - what are you so worried about? Your mob are going to romp in.

    1. If the illegal junta win they lose - and if they lose, the lose. Dictatorships and their cowardly supporters never get what they crave for most - respect and credibility.
      The rape of Fiji over the last 8 years will end in tears for Bainimarama and khaiyum. Read the desperation in the racist Fiji Sun. You can smell the fear.
      Now be your usual cowardly self and censor this one Croz?

    2. What drugs are you on? Give me some so I could hallucinate and see what you on about.

  2. FijiFirst 40%, Sodelpa 30%, NFP 15%, Labour or PDP 15% would be the ideal result to keep FijiFirst honest and keep Sodelpa moderate.

    But that would be in an ideal world and Fiji, even though it's the way the world should be, is hardly ideal.

    1. Nah, scratch that. NFP 40%, Sodelpa 30%, FijiFirst 15% and Labour or PDP 15%. FijiFirst's leader has already been proved to be dishonest, so trying to 'keep them honest' is an oxymoron.

      Apparently Labour says it would side with Sodelpa, so that would leave the liars of FF having to approach NFP (who FF says are liars) in order to form an alliance government.

      Oh what a tangled web FF leaves when it lies to deceive...

    2. NFP hahahaha.......they won before and could not form a government, those morons only now how to divide people

  3. croz
    Is your manic obsession causing considerable anguish to your family or is it just another jyoti rumour?

  4. The liumuri factor cannot be overestimated in Fiji. Polls are meaningless in an atmosphere of intimidation and bullying. There is a fair chance that Khaiyum's Fiji First will be as popular in the elections as the man himself.

    1. That's the elephant on the room - just how big a negative is Khaiyum for FijiFirst?

    2. Now the treasonous dictator is threatening to call of the elections. Stop dribbling down your chin Frank and do it. As for Frank's boss khaiyum - has there ever been a greater enemy of the Fijians?

    3. Speak for yourself mate not for all Fijians. Because some of us have bothered to educate ourselves and in the process see the bullcrap that people like you blow in the air. Get your head out of the sand. Sa rauta mada na vesumona.

  5. Calling Mr. Khaiyum an elephant is not only disrespectful, it also incites disaffection with our great leader and is therefore illegal. Mr. Khaiyum is best compared with one of the bravest animals in the kingdom: the hyena. The hyena is a smart and cunning creature that leaves no opportunity to grab a meal unused. It may be a bit unsavoury in its dietary habits, but hey are't we all pigs every now and then. The hyena is also a vicious predator that frequently confronts its adversaries with the objective of total destruction.

  6. Anon...@ 3:03pm....thanks for the cut and paste job from Sir David Attenborough on hyenas in the wild.


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