Why the Roadmap? The Politics under the Bridges Part III

                                               By Crosbie Walsh

Government opponents have made much of the fact that the Roadmap has not yet been published and released for pubic scrutiny, and some have doubted its existence. I have no doubt the Roadmap exists in draft form, sufficient for government planning but clearly not sufficient for release.

I suspect Government reasoning, as in all else they have done, is that the Roadmap and the Strategic Framework for Change (that also has not been published) are operational documents based on the well known principles of the People's Charter. Publication for the general public is therefore not a priority at this time. 

If this is the case, it demonstrates government's step-by-step approach to change. First, the infrastructural changes discussed in Part I, followed by the constitutional and electoral changes that require public participation and the publication, if by then if it has any residual relevance, of the Roadmap. We should know the answer by the end of this year.

The purpose of this three-part article is to set the everyday actions and statements of Government within the broad framework of the People's Charter in order to reveal the main elements of the Roadmap and their likely outcomes. Thus, in Part I we discussed the hoped for political outcomes (the “winning of hearts and minds”) of the infrastructural reforms (the politics under the bridges) and  in Part II the sorts of changes that are likely, because of perceived shortcomings in the 1997 Constitution, to be part of the constitutional reforms. 

In this, the concluding section, I itemise and comment on the likely electoral changes and their intended purposes.

Electoral reforms 2013

It is possible the constitutional and electoral reforms will overlap and indeed electoral preparations may precede the conclusion of the constitutional process but, given government's present strategy of tackling one thing at a time, it is more likely sustained dialogue on electoral reform will commence sometime in 2013, no later than September, which will give the new political parties one year to form and prepare for the elections in September 2014.


The changes that will be promoted by Government were spelt out in the 2008 Executive Summary of the People's Charter by the National Committee for Building a Better Fiji (NCBBF). They include two non-negotiable, and one partly negotiable, elements:


1. Each person's vote shall count equally (One man; one vote)


The NCBBF believed that the old communal (racial) voting system hindered the attainment of national identity, and violated the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights by not providing for one vote to have one value and by having electorates of very different population sizes.

The communal seats resulted in the under-representation of ethnic Fijians in urban areas and the larger provinces and their over-representation in rural areas and smaller provinces. General voters, who included Europeans, Chinese and people of mixed descent, were also over-represented.

2. A single common roll will replace the three separate communal (racial) rolls 
 

The NCBBF thought the separate communal rolls perpetuated racial divisions, and allowed the manipulation of votes for narrow ethnic (and not broad national) interests. As such, the separate rolls were an important ingredient in perpetuating Fiji's “coup culture.” Nevertheless, they wanted a system that assured the fair representation of Fiji’s ethnic diversity.

3. A proportional representation system shall replace the Alternative Vote system

The Alternative vote (AV) system established by the 1997 Constitution has been used in Fiji for the last three elections. It asked voters to rank candidates in order of preference or give this right to the party of their choice. The votes of lower order candidates were progressively redistributed until one candidate won 50% of the votes. The system was difficult to understand and resulted in a high proportion of invalid votes, up to 13% in some electorates. 

 

In the UK where different electoral systems were being considered the AV system was described as “obscure, unfair, unequal, unproportional, unpredictable, complex, no one's first choice, and liable to make politicians' promises even more meaningless.”

The NCBBF considered that Fiji would be better served by a proportional/party list system that reduces the importance of race, and increases the importance of other factors would be fairer, simpler and bring people together. 

 

The NCBBF stated a preference for "open" list seats. New Zealand has a "closed" list system. In both cases voters will have two votes, one for their electorate, the other for candidates on a list.

Voters will therefore be able to "split" their votes between a constituency candidate of one party and a party different from the candidate's party. This provision is important because voters will be able to vote for another candidate when they know their preferred candidate has no chance of winning, and vote for their preferred candidate's party —or any other party— with their party list vote. 

 

The difference between the open and closed list systems is that with the open list voters rank list candidates in the order of their choice, whereas with the closed list system used in the New Zealand each party decides its list order. Both systems have their advantages and disadvantages. With the open system voters can demote candidates favoured by their party by giving them a low list placing. With the closed system parties can ensure the election of their most-preferred candidates, and it is this system that ensured better representation for NZ's women and minorities. In Fiji it would also ensure that candidates from the larger parties represented a good mix of ethnicity, gender, skills and experience.

All other proposals will be open for discussion and amendment. These include:


4. The number of electorates and electoral boundaries

The NCBBF recommendation is to have localities, suburbs, towns and even provinces in Fiji that are closely associated with one or the other major ethnic group.

Professor Wadan Narsey thought (and I agree with him) that voters would be confused when faced with so many candidates to choose from, and there would be no locally accountable parliamentarians to serve purely local needs for roads, water, sewerage, health, education, and so on. A small number of electorates would depersonalise the election process, and deprive voters of access to a "local" MP who are aware of, and responsive to, local concerns.

The previous election system had 46 communal and 25 open seats, making a parliament of 71. My view, for what it is worth, is that careful attention to the boundaries of, say, 25-30 electorates would meet the concerns of the NCBBF without compromising local interest. This coupled with 41-46 list-decided seats would it difficult for any party to play a "race card." .

The actual number of electorate and party list seats would, of course, depend on the final size of Parliament. But fewer and therefore geographically larger constituencies would benefit the larger parties, and make it almost impossible for smaller locally-based parties such as PANU, and locally-known Independent candidates, with fewer resources than the large parties, to win a seat.

The last thing Fiji needs is the reappearance of two large parties and the extinction of smaller parties and Independent candidates. Coalition governments, where a large party relies on the support or one or more smaller party, tend to be more receptive to public opinion.

5. The number of Members of Parliament

It is probable that the number of MPs will be reduced.

6. The abolition of compulsory voting while maintaining compulsory registration. 

 

This is favoured by the NCBBF.

7. The voting age 
 

The NCBBF recommended the reduction of the voting age from 21 to 18 years. This provision would mean that people aged 10 in 2006 will be voting in 2014 and that a significant number of new voters (close to 20% of all voters), less influenced by the ways of their parents and perhaps more open to new ideas, will be voting for the first time — if they can be persuaded to vote.

8. Whether citizens resident overseas should be allowed to vote

With so many Fiji citizens and people of dual citizenship now living overseas, with most still in contact with relatives in Fiji and making a major contribution through remittances to the economy, there are good reasons for this provision, but it will require time specifications: a maximum time for overseas residence and a last visit to Fiji within the past so many years. A property qualification could also be considered.

9. The term of Parliament

The previous term was five years as used, for example, in the UK and Singapore. A shorter 3-year term as used by Australia and New Zealand may be considered.

10. The repeal of the mandatory power-sharing arrangement provided for in the 1997 Constitution

The old constitution decreed that Cabinet must reflect the composition of the House and that any party with eight seats must have at least one Cabinet member. This effectively neutralised the main opposition party by giving it seats in Cabinet. This rule never worked satisfactorily and was ignored when it suited them by both former PM's Chaudhry and Qarase. I would expect this provision to be dropped.

11. The size, composition and role of Senate

This was discussed in Part II but an option not mentioned was the replacement of Senate by House of Representative standing Committees. 

 

12. Whether the Constitution should allow referendums

I think this provision would benefit the party in power by providing a sounding board on controversial issues and provide a way by which citizens could take up issues not addressed by government. A decision would be needed on whether all, some or no referendums are binding on government. 

 

13. The registration of political parties

Registration is likely to be limited to parties with constitutions and policies that are consistent with the Peoples' Charter, and possibly also where their officials and candidates come from different ethnic groups. Given these requirements, it is likely that new political parties will emerge. It is unclear whether the SDL party that, despite claims to be multi-racial, is essentially an Itaukei party supported by some powerful chiefs, will be able to adjust to this new regime, or even if Government will allow it to try. And the same is probably true of the FLP party.

14. Requirements needed to register as an election candidate


These are likely to be made more stringent and could well stipulate a record of “good behaviour” and include acceptance of a code of ethics. People who have been convicted of crimes or served a prison sentence — and this would affect a number of former politicians— are likely to be excluded.

15. International Observers

Nelson Mandela once said “If the United States of America or Britain is having elections, they don't ask for observers from Africa or from Asia. But observers from Africa or from Asia. But when we have elections, they want observers.” This is likely to be the case for Fiji in 2014 despite the fact that the observers to the 2006 election did less than a good job. The important question is not whether there will or should be observers, but rather who those observers will be. If I were in Bainimarama's boots, I would opt for people from the Melanesian Spearhead Group, the Non-Aligned Nations, the Commonwealth and perhaps the UN. I would welcome legal advice and logistical assistance from Australia and New Zealand (and perhaps give some role to Sir Paul Reeves) but I certainly would not accept anyone else from either country as observers unless they had shown they did not agree with their country's isolationist policies on Fiji.

One thing that should make the malpractice that was evident during the 2006 elections far more difficult in 2014 will be the introduction of electronic voting and, with it, an election that can be conducted in one day.

Many people have wondered whether Bainimarama will stand in the 2014 election. I don't think it matters one way or another but I'm reasonably sure he intends to be around somewhere to ensure the incoming government upholds the principles of the People's Charter. The important thing is that the elections take place within a fair and equal system, that the process itself is fair and above board, and that the incoming government gets on with the task of making Fiji the place it “Can Be.”

Conclusion

What we have seen since 2006 is a set of evolving policies — based on the People's Charter and the Roadmap — that are designed to break the so-called “coup culture” where powerful sections of the Itaukei ruling class used popular ignorance to maintain their power and privileges, or to regain this power when they thought it threatened by “unsympathetic” elected governments. Fiji's "coup culture" may not end in 2014 but the government measures outlined in this article should  make coups less appealing and far more difficult to execute. 

 

The incoming government will be predominantly Itaukei for the simple reason that its population is now far more numerous but it will also be more representative of the population as a whole. Fiji will still have a capitalist economy but its disadvantaged social and geographic peripheries will be less neglected. The military will still be in the background but as times goes by, one hopes its political role will be diminished and its composition will become more multi-racial.

For the 2006 coup, and this Pacific example of social engineering, to be deemed successful by later generations, there are several priorities. Sharing equal first place, are the economy and the military because without the recovery of the former and the firm and undivided support of the latter all could be lost. The forces of reaction are sleeping; they are not dead. For this reason alone, every effort must be made to neutralise the hardcore opposition, win grassroots Itaukei support, and the support of the uncommitted “middle Fiji.” 


The Charter ideals won over many to support the Bainimarama Government, but much of this support was lost  even before the Abrogation of the Constitution as dialogue became less frequent and less inclusive. The Charter sought change and a more democratic Fiji through dialogue, consensus building and reconciliation. The Abrogation of the Constitution saw the government abandon this approach, and proceed along the three-step process of the second Roadmap described in this article. First, infrastructural and institutional reforms, then constitutional reform, and then the electoral reforms.  


It remains to be seen how far government has got ahead of public opinion since 2009 and whether there is sufficient time for the people to catch up.  But without the wholehearted support of a large and representative section of the public, all that has been done could unravel. This, in the longer term,  is the greater threat to government plans than the schemings of its known opponents.
 
The recommencement of the serious civilian-government dialogue that is likely to occur towards the end of this year is therefore absolutely essential if the ideals embedded in the People's Charter (and all the work that has gone into the Roadmap) are to ripen by 2014,  and continue to bear fruit in the years ahead.

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