(B+) The Forum "Line Up" on Fiji at Cairns

One wonders how Australia will handle the Fiji issue at the Forum meeting in Cairns. Chairing the meeting gives it some room to manoeuvre discussion away from Fiji if the discussion is not going its way. It could, for example, put a time limit on discussions (or perfunctorily close the discussion as happened in Apia) saying that climate change, the global economy, and the PACER discussions to follow, are more important.

Whatever it does will require a greater understanding of Pacific sensitivities than has been evident so far, when Australia and New Zealand, with support from Samoa and smaller Island countries, clearly pushed the Forum to suspend Fiji.

The present line up seems to be: Solomon Islands and Vanuatu strongly pro-Fiji; PNG and Kiribati only a little less so; with Tonga, Tuvalu, FSM, Palau and Marhall Islands likely also to support Fiji if the issue is not well handled. On the other side of the ball park are Australia, NZ, Samoa, Cook Islands, Niue and possibly Nauru. Associate members New Caledonia and French Polynesia do not have a vote. With Forum decisions requiring consensus agreement (and so many and so many mixed agendas involved) outcomes are anyone's guess.

What Australia and New Zealand should understand, however, is that if they get their way with anything less than the genuine, voluntary agreement of each and every country, they will be adding fuel to the smoldering accusations of bullying and neo-colonialism that, some way down the road, will work against their long-term interests in the Region.

At issue: Fiji's suspension from the Forum and PACER; Australia and NZ's dominance (and aid diplomacy) in what is supposed to be a meeting of equals, however different member countries may be in size, wealth and influence; the lurking role of China ready to step into Aust.NZ shoes; and, ultimately, the Pacific Plan (click here) and future prospects of regional cooperation.

P.S. One hopes the Samoa representative understands the relocation of the Forum Secretariat from Fiji to you-guess-where is a far smaller issue.

-- Based partly on an Islands Business article on the Stuck in Fiji M.U.D. blogsite.