Last Week in Fiji: First Week of March

SCROLL TO THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE FOR THIS WEEK'S NOTICES

Punch Drunk and the 3R's

It's been a bad week for the Interim Government. First they were hit by the US Human Rights Report; then the International Bar Association Report ; then the Commonwealth CMAG Report (each with opportunites for umpteen opponents to make umpteen comments) and, if that was not enough, this weekend produced some bad economic signals from Moody's and the tourism industry, on which brief comments below. I will comment on the "human rights" reports later in the week.

Postings this week included:
* Commerce Commissioner dismissal
* Two important "historic" comments by Steve Ratuva
* Ratu Isoa on the role of the military [Major post]
* Walsh on Bainimarama's need for a public relations
officer --- the Commonwealth announcement [Major post]

(o) The Commonwealth Ministers' Action Group.
I thought their decision very reasonable. They didn't ask for elections by September; only that the process started. If all goes well with the PPDF, it should be possible to announce an election date before then, and indeed before May 1st. But there's no way elections can be held in less than 12 months. See 26 February post: Why Elections Cannot be Held by December.

(o+) The Slightly Lengthened Arm of the Law

The Fiji Law Society, the US Human Rights Report and High Court Judge Nazhat Shameem are all agreed: it takes too long for civil and criminal cases to be heard before the courts. The Law Society says this is due to the shortage of "suitably qualified" judges. Let's hope the appointment of Suva Magistrate Ajmal Khan as Chief Magistrate and Justice Sosefo Inoke as a Puisne (pronounced 'puny') Judge meet American and Law Society approval.
[Note: The Constitution recognized three courts: the Supreme Court (headed by Chief Justice Anthony Gates and the Justices of Appeal); the High Court (CJ and at least ten puisne judges); and the Court of Appeal comprising puisne judges. The latter hears cases referred to it by the Magistrate's Court, the first level of the court system, headed by the Chief Magistrate.] FijiLive 3 March 2009.

(+) The Years of the Red Fire Dog (2006) and the Ox (2009)

Cdre Bainimarama really didn't pick the best year for a coup. He should have left it three years so that Qarase had to face the bad economic news now hitting the country. Oxes are more propitious than dogs. Coups and revolutions are best conducted in bad economic times. With Qarase's high borrowing levels and economic management up to 2006, and likely increased debt to fund racially-skewed affirmative action schemes, Fiji could have been close to bankruptcy today. He wouldn't have a coup to blame, and since he now disbelieves Bainimarama, he couldn't blame it entirely on the world depression. Even the excessively vocal present critics of the Interim Government could be against him.

But the reality is different. Fiji's international economy rating (an indicator to potential investors and lenders) seems likely to suffer a downgrade from New York-based Moody's Investor Confidence, according to their V-P Stephen Hess who was in Fiji last week. "The level of reserves was now low compared to the country’s need for foreign exchange not only to pay its debt, which was not that large, but also to pay for imports." Investment levels have been "falling quite substantially over the last few years as a proportion of GDP.” The ability to borrow offshore was "uncertain ... due particularly to the political situation." And the budget deficit will be higher "due to the floods and slowing economy." [Economic statements from Fiji Live.]

(+) Lying by Omission: Qarase

Former PM Laisenia Qarase is considering legal action against the Interim PM for saying he "lied to the court in applying for permission to travel to Australia." [Qarase applied to visit his grandchildren.] He said he did not tell the court of other places he would be visiting because it was "irrelevant". Qarase "irrelevantly" attended fund-raising dinners for the SDL party in four Australian cities. The money "will be used for our legal challenges. We have at least two major cases before the courts and we have more in the coming month.” [Which should keep the courts and the Government busy! Qarase is charged with three counts of abuse of office and related charges brought by the FICAC, the Fiji Independent Commission Against Corruption.] Condensed from FijiLive. 5 March 2009.

Opinion. One can't help thinking that the main purpose of these --- and several other legal --- challenges is to embarrass the Interim Government, disrupt its everyday functioning, and sidetrack it from major issues facing the country. If so, Qarase's short-term advantage will be at some cost to the Fiji economy and normal government business. In Fiji's present circumstances (for which some would say he is equally accountable) petty litigation is not the way to go.