(-) Brij Lal says Administration Under Seige

Extracts. For full article see, "Fiji's military rule ‘can’t last 10 years’ ", FijiLive 01/02/2009

Professor Brij Lal, ANU and co-author of the Reeves Commission report which resulted in the 1997 Constitution, says the interim administration is under siege. "Don't be fooled by all (Voreqe) Bainimarama's bluster. He is ruling with guns and fear, not with popular support.

"And while he might be thumbing his nose at the region right now the government won't be able to keep it up."While suspension from the Pacific Islands Forum would embarrass Fiji and exclude it from some regional deals, the economic impact will be minimal."I wouldn't be surprised if the military has already written the forum off as a loss and moved on," he says. "The problem then remains that Fiji is further isolated and Australia and New Zealand are no closer to the democracy that they are trying to bring about."

Stewart Price, a senior researcher on Fiji governance at ANU, says there are two strong but opposing ways of viewing Bainimarama's statement on election delays. "On one hand, what Bainimarama is trying to do, change the voting system, is entirely desirable, something the country desperately needs," Price says. "In that sense, maybe Australia and New Zealand should be standing back and giving him a bit more room, a bit more time, to do it."

But on the flip side, he says, there is no reason to believe Bainimarama is being driven by these worthy principles."We have to remember he is a coup leader and every coup has had it's justification," he says. "This one just happens to be all about good governance and multi-racialism, but we don't have to believe Bainimarama is enormously sincere about these things."

Both Lal and Price believe military rule will continue for at least the next couple of years before a re-structured election is held.

"Being under siege, being harassed by their regional neighbours, and having little local support for what they're doing will get too much over time," Lal said. "Eventually, they'll have no choice."
But Price warns that even an election is unlikely to change much.