Last Week in Fiji II: Fact and Opinion

[Flashback: This weekend Fiji (and Serevi) are in Wellington for the Rugby 7's. Remember Trevor Mallard's embarrassing comment that he hoped the Fiji team wouldn't get very far in the competition (because of the 2006 coup)? And then Fiji went on to thrash NZ in the finals. A double embarrassment.]

Does anyone know why the Fiji Human Rights Commission website cannot be contacted?

• Floods First, Forum Later
• Help Sugar Now -- or Else
• Singh and Beddoes Speak Out
• People's Charter
• Samoan and Ni-Vanuatu Commentary
• Litigation: Qarase and the Interim Government
• Wages Up, Fares Down - Helping the Poor
• Minimum Wages
• Mischievous or Just Bad Reporting - Fiji Daily News
• The Good News: 3000 New Jobs?
• And from NZTV 7 Robie, Dreaver and Khan

(G) Attention Floods First, Forum Later
Interim PM Voqere (Frank) Bainimarama has called for sacrifice in the face of suspended EU loans and further sanctions following Fiji's possible suspension from the PI Forum later this year. “Every now and then we need to make sacrifices for the betterment of our future generations,”he said. "“Maybe we lose some now, but in the long run, we are more independent, confident and our children will have a lasting multi racial, cultural and tolerant society they can develop in.” He said discussion on the Forum resolution will take place after the flood victims are taken care of but, according to FijiLive, he was adamant about changing the country’s race-based voting system.

The Floods
The final cost of the Floods is not yet know but costs so far include an estimated $30m for the Sugar industry and at least $8m for Nadi rehabilitation. Meanwhile, according to Fiji Village, over 17,000 people received rations in January, and more than 147,000 people still need them, all in the west and north of Viti Levu, approximately 18,000 in Nadroga, 8,500 in Navosa, 70,000 in Nadi, 13,000 in Lautoka and Yasawa, 9,600 in Ba, 10,000 in Tavua, 5,000 in Nadarivatu and 12,800 in Ra. Overseas donors include PNG $1 milion, India $185,000, N Z about $600,000. The Government is distributing water purification tablets to affected areas.
This is the worst environmental crisis Fiji has endured in recent years. One might have hoped NZ would have put politics aside and been considerably more generous.

(o) Help Sugar Now or Else, Aid Donors Told
FijiLive 6 February 2009
Fiji's main sugarcane farmers' organisation has warned aid donors to front up now with badly needed assistance or face the consequences of salvaging a potentially bankrupt industry.Sugar Cane Growers Council CEO Surendra Sharma said aid donors should take heed as they will all be implicated if the industry fails."Aid donors will all have to spend a lot more to try to salvage the industry as well as deal with the wider implications when poverty levels spin out of control," Sharma said. The SCGC has written to the EU and the NZ and Australian governments for assistance, so far to no avail. NZ is playing a major role in tying up EU aid. Hitting cane farmers and workers will not "restore democracy".

(-) Movement for Democracy in Fiji chairperson Attar Singh appealed to the Interim Government to "return to democracy" so that the EU's $350 million aid to the ailing sugar industry will be paid.

(-) Former General Voters MP, Mick Beddoes, asked how the interim government will amend the Constitution without breaking the law. This followed Interim Attorney General, Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum's statement that the constitution will be amended to allow electoral reforms, the end of racial voting and the introduction of the a one man one vote system. (Fiji Sun).

(G) People's Charter Paper is Out
The Fiji Daily Post reports (5 February 2009) that the 42-page People's Charter for Change, Peace and Progress has now been accepted by the President, Ratu Josefa Iloilovatu Uluivuda, and is being widely distributed. Translations into Fijian and Hindustani will be available soon The Interim Government's Information Department said the Charter process was a national level initiative which was inclusive and participatory, representing Fiji’s own way of addressing its deep-rooted, complex and fundamental problems.

“Integral to this process has been the firm commitment of all stakeholders as well as the interim Government towards the restoration and sustenance of true parliamentary democratic governance, stability and peace in Fiji,” the statement said.

The Ministry of National Planning has been tasked to integrate the Charter into the Corporate Plans of various ministries.“The general public is therefore encouraged to make an effort to read the Charter and contribute to the interim Government's endeavour to rebuild Fiji into a non-racial, culturally vibrant and united, well-governed, truly democratic nation that seeks progress and prosperity through merit-based equality of opportunity and peace,” the statement said.

(-) Samoan leader, Tuilaepa Malilelegaoi says unless the armed force in Fiji is removed there will be no peace in the country. Major Neumi Leweni replied that Fiji was a sovereign county and asked that it be left alone to attend to its problems. [Unfortunately, it could well be that it will be left alone.]

(o) Vanuatu Finance Minister, Sela Molisa, chairperson of the Monitoring Group for the People's Charter, speaking of the Forum's ultimatum to Fiji, said "I don't believe that it is the best option for the countries of the Pacific.

(+) Abuse of Office?
The case brought by the Interim Government against Former PM Laisenia Qarase, adjourned until 5th March, has been transferred to the High Court in Suva.

(-) In a counter move, Qarase's SDL party is challenging a ruling by Justice John Bryce which allowed the People's Charter process to continue, over-ruling an earlier injunction by Justice Jitoko that would have stopped the use of civil servants and government funds in promoting the Charter. [Tit-for-tat litigation is about the last thing Fiji needs at the moment.]

(+) Help for the Poor
Whatever its faults, the Interim Government is showing concern for the poor. This week it has increased minimum wages by 20% (see below), ordered a reduction of bus fares by 10%, and taxi flagfall prices by 50c, following the recent drop in fuel prices.

Minimum Wage Increases
Fiji Employers Federation chief executive Ken Roberts said federation representatives at the council's board argued against the wage increase that will give low paid workers increases of between 20 and 50 cents an hour. He said employment creation in the country will be hindered and those business affected by the flood would suffer further. National Wage Council Chairman, Fr Kevin Barr, had earlier said some employers had refused to raise wages despite generating huge profits through increased productivity, and added that when asked many employers refused to show their financial records to the Council. (Fiji Times).

The wage regulation order was gazetted in November last year and came into effect February 1st. Minimum hourly wage rates: Garment industry $1.36 ($61 weekly, assuming a 45 hour week. The urban poverty line in 1991 was $101!); most unskilled workers $1.65 to $2.08; Hotel and Catering workers from $1.84; Mining and Quarrying from $2.57. http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=110204

In 2003 the bottom 30% of urban households had 10% of urban incomes, while the top 20% had 47%,, and the top 10% had 30%.(See Walsh 2006:357-359)

(-/o) Mischievous or Just Bad Reporting
(-) Fiji Daily News: "Democracy Still Elusive in Fiji".

Whoever wrote this article should get their facts right and not infer Prof Brij Lal said things that he did not.

FDN: "The military-man has ... suggested he’d like to keep the top job for another 10 years."
The Facts: Bainimarama actually said “I want to reform electoral laws and change the constitution to remove discrimination against Fiji’s large ethnic-Indian minority. The reforms will come before elections - even if the process takes five to ten years.”

FDN: "...he has replaced many key government figures with military officials"
The Facts: Yes, this is worrying -- but it is at least partly because of the difficulty in filling these position due to Australian and NZ travel bans.

FDN: (He has) "repeatedly broken promises to hold an election to return the country to democracy."
The Facts: Not repeatedly. Two "promises" were made, the first in April 2007 by Chaudhry, Nailatikau and Sayed-Khaiyum to the EU; the second in October 2007 by Bainimarama to the PI Forum in Tonga, and then only made after Tonga said they'd support a later date if this became necessary. Being pressured to say something is not a promise. Opponents say the promise was broken because of the date change (March 2009) but that was only one part of the promise. The other part promised "free and fair elections." [The "six million dollar" question is how this can be achieved. All parties -- the Interim Government, its opposition, the Forum and international community -- need to lift their eyes from dates and focus hard on possible answers to the far bigger question.]

DN:"The reason for the delay, he claims, is the need to reform the current communal voting system that assigns votes along ethnic lines, giving indigenous Fijians an advantage over the Fiji Indian minority."
The Facts: Yes, but not for the reason stated. The majority Fijian population has long had that advantage. What the Interim Government wants is a system that gives all votes an equal value. [Note: The present system makes (rural) Fijian, General and Rotuman Communal votes far more valuable than those of urban Fijians and Indo-Fijians. A case can be made to allow over-representation of Rotumans and General voters.]

Municipal Councils Dismissed
The Local Government Association will legally challenge the Interim Government's decision dismissing all councils to facilitate municipal reform. Their case will be heard on 13th March.

And the Good News? 3,000 New Jobs for Nasinu?
FijiLive reports that Cayman-based ICT call centre business, Mindpearl Ltd., could create 3,000 fulltime jobs over two and a half years, starting this September, following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with the Fiji Islands Trade and Investment Bureau. Mindpearl provides full contact centre facilities and services to a consortium of 11 airlines, flying globally to over 400 destinations across all time zones. Wages are likely to be between $12,000 to $15,000. Fiji was chosen because of its "neutral" English accent and Southern Cross Cable access. Mindpearl, to be located in the TaxFree Zone at Nasinu in Greater Suva, will enjoy a 13-year-tax holiday.

And from NZ TV7: (o+) Robie, Dreaver and Khan: Fiji Needs Help by its Powerful Neighbours
New Zealand's TV7 (unfortunately only accessible on the internet or with Freeview) offers programmes that rarely pander to the "lowest-common-denominator" audience typical of most progammes on other TV channels. There seems to be an intent to inform and educate, the kind of TV we were promised when we first had TV in the 1960s. Thursday's 9:10pm slot was a disccussion on Fiji between three people with Fiji experience: journalist and educator David Robie of AUT, TV1's Pacific reporter Barbara Dreaver, and Radio Tarana owner Robert Khan (www.tarana.co.nz/fiji-news/fiji-news/index.htm).

I hope, but doubt, that someone in the PM's office or Foreign Affairs was tuned in. The main message: Fiji needs help, not confrontation, from its more powerful neighbours. Things are very wrong that need to be fixed if Fiji is to have a genuine democracy.

You can listen to what they said on http://tvnzondemand.co.nz/content/media7/ondemand_video_skin?tab=&sb=date-descending&e=media7_2009_ep2#ep_media7_2009_ep2

Postscript 17.2.09. The NZ Media7 programme on Fiji is now available on the Pacific Media Centre YouTube site so it can be seen in Fiji http://cafepacific.blogspot.com/2009/02/media7-bares-all-on-fiji.html

The second item, on Waitangi, is also pertinent. My thanks to David Robie's Cafe Pacific for the link. See also my posting "Fiji Needs Lasting Solutions and Compassionate Neighbours" by Auckland-based journalist Thakur Ranjit Singh. Fiji Times 5 February 2009. http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=113597

(G) Bainimarama Appeals to Media for Fair Coverage on People's Charter

Abridged from Pacific Media Centre posting. Comment on this item www.pacificmediacentre.blogspot.com For full Government release, see www.fiji.gov.fj/publish/cat_press.shtml

Iterim PM Voqere Bainimarama has appealed to the media to report the facts on the People's Charter and State of the Nation and Economy (SNE) Report fairly so people could form informed opinions and make decisions based on good and reliable information. The media, he said, had a duty and important role to play in raising awareness about the People’s Charter and the details of the proposed changes.

He noted that their previous active opposition on the work of National Council for Building a Better Fiji appeared to be based on the idea that the Charter was being imposed by a government that had no mandate But reaffirmed that the Charter process had been inclusive and participatory and represented Fiji's own way of addressing its deep rooted, complex and fundamental problems.

Bainimarama reaffirmed that the interim government was firmly committed to true parliamentary democratic governance, stability and peace in Fiji. He pointed out that changes introduced through the People’s Charter would be comprehensive and not a process happening at an objective abstract level in the systems of government, the laws, economy and so on as people assume.He further stated that the People’s Charter was about change of the individual person at the very fundamental level.

Bainimarama highlighted that this was no means an easy challenge adding Fiji as a nation could not change for the better unless people at the personalevel changed their views, attitude, motives and actions and how they worked and acted in various situations. He said the People’s Charter was about promoting shared value of equality and dignity for all citizens, respect for different beliefs, good governance, social justice, economic growth, public service, good governance, social justice, economic growth, rewarding people on merit and consensus building on issues that cause conflicts and so on.

(+) Opinion: Fiji Needs Lasting Solutions and Compassionate Neighbours
Thakur Ranjit Singh, Waitakere City, New Zealand
This article was published in the Fiji Times, 5 February 2009.

If there are any lessons to be learnt from the previous coups, hurriedly-prepared elections and token changes to rules do not usher in real democracy.

As New Zealand Air Force Boeing 757 descended on Port Moresby on the night of 26 January, 2009, carrying New Zealand Prime Minister John Key to attend Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) meeting, we had hoped his first trip to the Pacific since coming to power would make a difference.

However the outcome of the PIF meeting was a big disappointment. We had expected and hoped for some change with a new bloke in control. But it appears that despite his right arm in plaster, John Key was still using the other arm to cling on to Helen Clark’s petticoat when it comes to determining his stance about Fiji. He still appeared to be doing that in Port Moresby as he met the Pacific leaders and gave an undiplomatic and paternalistic grilling to Aiyaz Khaiyum, Fiji’s Interim Attorney General, who represented Bainimarama. Key even went to the extent of suggesting he (Khaiyum) should be tried for his crimes.

For those of you who are unaware, New Zealand Prime Minister John Key suffered multiple arm fractures after a fall at Auckland’s Greenlane ASB Showgrounds to mark Chinese New Year on 17 January, 2009, just over 2 weeks before PIF meeting. He attributed his tripping and falling down the small flight of stairs to “…..momentary lapse in concentration, I was looking out instead of looking down."

While we are sorry to see this happen, at least some thought that there was a brighter side to this unfortunate incident - with one arm already pre-occupied, he would be less tempted to snatch at Labour’s petticoat. There are indications that National Party was still copying and pasting the non-compromising foreign policy of Labour Party and its former leader Helen Clark who is reported to be National’s de facto advisor on Fiji matters.

So much has already been written as to why election alone would not solve Fiji’s problems. New Zealand and Kevin Rudd’s obsession with elections is merely an escape valve to show to the world that these big Anglo Saxon brothers still rule the Pacific. The only problem is that these two countries are bereft of any brotherly love. They have always gained from Fiji both in terms of trade imbalance and the well-trained English speaking professionals, businessmen and qualified blue collar workers who do the jobs that need to dirty the hands. The biggest beneficiaries of the coups and instability in the Pacific have been these two big brothers who saved millions, if not billions in not having to train migrants who were already trained by Fiji government, its taxpayers, its work ethics and its stable family environment. I am one of them.

Fiji has had elections since its independence in 1970, but these elections were a mere shadow of democracy. John Key and Rudd need to understand that even in the past Fiji elections, real democracy had never been achieved. It had merely been a sham of democracy; in many instances autocratic leaders used their traditional powers and influence to manipulate democracy and masquerade as democratic leaders.

In my past writings, I have already enumerated the fundamental problems with Fiji, but today, the biggest problem on election issue is an unfair electoral system and arrangement that hits at the heart of democracy.

There is a need to remove the race-based politics and election and have an electoral system and process that gives same weight and importance to every vote. The current system in flawed in this respect where some provinces with only 6000 people have a seat while others with three times more people still have one seat. Fewer rural population have greater number of seats while urbanites miss out.

United Nations and internationally recognized principles of democracy dictate that each person's vote is to be of equal importance; hence Fiji’s electoral system is in breach of these. In addition, some twenty percent of voters in 2006 either did not vote because of a rigged and ineffective system with many names not on the roll or had their votes declared invalid because the system is too complicated for many to understand.

Is John Key aware of this major flaw in Fiji’s electoral system? Are other Forum leaders aware of this? Would they tolerate this in their countries?

The adage that age brings maturity was aptly displayed by the host of PIF meeting, Sir Michael Somare. Despite their economic richness and advancement, Key and Rudd were rendered mere dwarfs by the sensitivity, reason, humility, compassion and generosity flowing from this eminent person.

It is hoped Australia and New Zealand bureaucrats in the Beehive (Parliamentary Office) in Wellington can teach this lesson to their leaders that I have been echoing for years now and Sir Michael summed it very aptly: “If there are any lessons to be learnt from the previous coups, hurriedly- prepared elections and token changes to rules do not usher in real democracy.”
In true Pacific way, PNG gave NZ and Australia a lesson in diplomacy, neighbourly love and maturity in pleading that the Forum owed it to the people of Fiji not to commit the same mistakes of the past. He suggested that a roadmap be drawn up with realistic timelines to return Fiji to a durable democracy. Sir Michael promised financial and logistic support, and volunteered to provide all the assistance that Fiji required to carry it towards path to a long-lasting democracy, based on equality and justice. Perhaps the developed-country (read Australia and NZ) leadership in PIF countries need to learn from the supposedly backward Pacific countries which have a heart for their neighbours in trouble. It has become obvious that the two strong and rich Pacific neighbours do not understand and appreciate the true meaning of the Pacific Way.
Sir Michael’s pronouncement should echo for a long time and reverberate in future Forum Meetings: “… Forum leadership is not about imposing our will, but about listening and extending a helping hand in ways that bring about long term solutions.”
New Zealand can continue to ignore the advice of migrants like me and others, but they need to heed the advice of their own former diplomat who suggested that a team of experts should be sent to Suva to establish the broad outlines of new constitutional requirements. He cautioned that tone and style would be important and New Zealand need to stop acting ethnocentrically.

His advice to his own government was to reflect on the observation: There's only one thing worse than a coup, and that's a failed coup.

On that fateful day when John Key stumbled and fell in Auckland, he blamed it on momentary lapse in concentration as he was looking out instead of looking down.

John Key needs to learn from his experience. He once again stumbled and fell in Port Moresby and further fractured the relations that NZ Labour Party had failed to mend. He needs to learn from the elder Sir Michael Somare, and he needs to free his non-plastered hand from previous government’s policy and develop his own foreign policy on Fiji with advice from seasoned leaders with a heart, like Sir Michael.

My advice to John Key is to start looking down and closely at Fiji before looking out at far away countries, to avoid future falls, like his stumble in Auckland followed by the one in Port Moresby.

He may end up being the fall guy of NZ Labour Government’s failed and non-compromising foreign policy on Fiji.

He may, hence end up copping the blame for a failed coup and the resulting dictatorship in Fiji!

(E-mail: thakurji@xtra.co.nz)

(About the Author: Thakur Ranjit Singh is an Auckland-based political commentator.)

New Feature
Last Week in Fiji I : Fact and Opinion

• Aftermath Forum Decision
• Aftermath Fiji Times Publisher Expulsion
• Employers concerned about new minimum wages
• Commonwealth Urges Local Government Elections
• The Sunday Ban - Revived
• Announcement on President's Political Dialogue Forum (PPDF)

Meanwhile, estimates on the cost of flood damage increased; more flooding is forecast for Navua; Waisale Serevi was sacked as coach of the Fiji Sevens (and his supporters threatened to burn down Rugby House ... and Fiji slipped off the radar in New Zealand.

Aftermath Forum Decision
The Interim Government continues to say it will not be pressured; its opposition demands immediate compliance; and some in Fiji and overseas are asking for tougher measures. So, as expected, there's little new to report, onlyto repeat: pressure must be applied, inside and out of Fiji, on all parties, not just on the Interim Government.

Fiji Times Publisher Expulsion
The Pacific Concerns Resource Centre's (PCRC) Peter Emberson is the latest voice condemning the expulsion of Fiji Times publisher Australian Rex Gardner. In a separate post, I called the expulsion unwise but it does bear repeating that the FT defendants admitted guilt and the judge, generously, did not pass sentence on Gardner only because of its visa and work permit implications. Emberson called the expulsion "appalling" but the accusation can only apply to the severity of the judgements, not the judgments themselves.The FT abused its privileged position, and broke the law, not for the first time.

Employers concerned about new minimum wages
Surpise! Surprise!

The Sunday Ban - Revived
Village chief Isei Vosadrau of Cawaro, Udu Point, has banned Sunday travel because villagers are leaving church early to catch boats. Methodist President Awe Tugawe said that while "work" was not allowed on the Sabbath, this did not apply to visiting the sick, travel and helping the poor. Rev Akuila Yabaki, Citizen's Constitutional Forum (CCF), said the right to freedom of travel had been violated and he was appalled at a ban which forced people to attend church. The incident brings to mind the infamous Sunday Bans of the early 1990s when the Rabuka government included Fijian nationalist and religious extremists, not unlike the situation with the Qarase government. It serves as a further warning of the dangers of linking church to state.

Our human prejudices overwhelm the universality of our religious teachings. We use it to denigrate and demean each other. The way of the cross is love, forbearance, forgiveness, compassions and gentleness ... It is a quantum leap to apply these tactics to advocating a Christian State or to demonise other faiths.
Ratu Joni Madraiwiwi, Fiji Times, April 2006

Commonwealth Urges Local Government Elections
The Commonwealth Local Government Forum has urged the Interim Government to hold municipal elections no later than October. This followed the Government's dismissal last week of all municipal council preceding a "clean up campaign." An earlier review report had recommended councillors stay in office until a new election, and that mayors be elected by voters, not councillors. It was hoped this provision would meet Government's concern at the amount of party politics in municipal affairs. ( For more information on Fiji local government, see Walsh: An Encyclopaedic Atlas, pp384-387, and www.unescap.org/huset/lgstudy/country/fiji/fiji.html and www.answers.com/topic/fiji-municipal-elections-2005)

President's Political Dialogue Forum (PPDF)
The Forum, proposed by the President last year, will be facilitated by the Commonwealth and UN, with Forum representatives invited. The Forum is likely to be held soon, following a meeting of all political parties to discuss its terms of reference and an agenda. Electoral reform and the adoption of a new political system will be high on the agenda. The announcment would be good news except that PM Bainimarama has reservations inviting parties strongly critical of the People's Charter and electoral reform, and former PM Qarase and his SDL party insist there should be no pre-conditions. Bainimarama, he said, should come to the meeting with an "open mind." (One might add, and so should Qarase). The PPDF offers a way forward, especially if the international community offers its support, but for the present the signs do not look too promising.

(-) Opinion:Interim Government's Broken Promises

Scrambled snippets [with my comments (+) in parenthesis] from Jennifer Blake's article in the Jakarta Globe.(www.thejakartaglobe.com/opinion/article/7939.html) To comment on this item, go to my source, www.pacificmediacentre.blogspot.com

Bainimarama promised change and led a bloodless coup with much popular support. But his initial popularity has faded because he has failed to deliver on his promises. The embattled interim government is now making dangerous moves to maintain order. The diplomatic snub (of Forum meetings) foolishly reinforces Fiji’s isolationist position ... [It is difficult to estimate his support when the media, some NGOs, and those who stand to lose from electoral reform are so vocal. Both sides, of course, will claim majority support.]

His Alleged "Broken Promises"

• Commitments to media freedom broken. [Hastened perhaps by irresponsible reporting]
  
• He promised to reinvigorate the economy, yet under his leadership, the national GDP has contracted by 3.1 percent. [Many factors at work. Most world economies contracting.]
• 
  He pledged to unify the people, but his methods have created nothing but division. His perceived pro-Indian policies have done nothing to heal the bitter rifts that span its history. [At least, he's trying. Jennifer, I note your comment that --
  

"Fiji stumbled on the road to democracy — a fall brought on
partly by his former prime minister’s unabashed distaste for the “foreign
flower” and its flawed ideology. Qarase’s government was riddled with
corruption, blatantly racist and fatally short-sighted."

[Is it not possible that the "pro-Indian" tag is being promoted by the pro-Qarase faction?]

• Perhaps unintentionally, he has sidelined the powerful Fijian nationalist voice, a gamble that could cost him his leadership, provide grounds for a future coup or justify a violent backlash. [You could well be right but the "sidelining" of extreme nationalists and the chiefly elite was a reason for the coup. I hope for Fiji's sake that your prediction is wrong.]
  
• Bainimarama is being backed into a corner, facing attacks from the national press, the regional and international community, and a potential massive and humiliating loss at the polls should he call elections this year. The likelihood is he will soon face a challenge from the Fijian nationalists, perhaps presenting itself in the form of a coup — Fiji’s fifth in 22 years. [Unfortunately, being backed into a corner makes your prediction more likely.]

• Bainimarama needs to act quickly in order to prevent another violent grasp for power, which would devastate the Fijian economy and decimate any hopes for democracy in the near future. [Yes, but how, without checking the media and acting against opponents, for which you, among others, criticize him.]

• This brief "leftist" venture might soon see an enormous pendulum swing to the "right". [The Fiji situation does not fit neatly into "left" and "right", but a counter-coup would certainly undo the good that the Interim Government has achieved and give new strength to the anti-democratic forces of intolerant ethno-nationalism and religious fundamentalism.]

(-) Brij Lal says Administration Under Seige

Extracts. For full article see, "Fiji's military rule ‘can’t last 10 years’ ", FijiLive 01/02/2009

Professor Brij Lal, ANU and co-author of the Reeves Commission report which resulted in the 1997 Constitution, says the interim administration is under siege. "Don't be fooled by all (Voreqe) Bainimarama's bluster. He is ruling with guns and fear, not with popular support.

"And while he might be thumbing his nose at the region right now the government won't be able to keep it up."While suspension from the Pacific Islands Forum would embarrass Fiji and exclude it from some regional deals, the economic impact will be minimal."I wouldn't be surprised if the military has already written the forum off as a loss and moved on," he says. "The problem then remains that Fiji is further isolated and Australia and New Zealand are no closer to the democracy that they are trying to bring about."

Stewart Price, a senior researcher on Fiji governance at ANU, says there are two strong but opposing ways of viewing Bainimarama's statement on election delays. "On one hand, what Bainimarama is trying to do, change the voting system, is entirely desirable, something the country desperately needs," Price says. "In that sense, maybe Australia and New Zealand should be standing back and giving him a bit more room, a bit more time, to do it."

But on the flip side, he says, there is no reason to believe Bainimarama is being driven by these worthy principles."We have to remember he is a coup leader and every coup has had it's justification," he says. "This one just happens to be all about good governance and multi-racialism, but we don't have to believe Bainimarama is enormously sincere about these things."

Both Lal and Price believe military rule will continue for at least the next couple of years before a re-structured election is held.

"Being under siege, being harassed by their regional neighbours, and having little local support for what they're doing will get too much over time," Lal said. "Eventually, they'll have no choice."
But Price warns that even an election is unlikely to change much.