(o+) Why the Rush with PACER? Why Was Fiji Excluded From PACER? Why Was Roman Grynberg's Contract Not Renewed?

PLEASE VOTE IN THE MEDIA POLL TO THE LEFT

It may all seem like the ramblings of several conspiracy theorists -- or a bunch of anti-free trade lobbyists -- but there are too many unanswered questions not to be concerned about Australia's (and New Zealand's) apparent role in the questions raised in the title to this post. The questions raised are at least as much about the the perception of patronising, bullying and very unequal relations between sovereign states as they are about trade. About what even Sir Don McKinnon, New Zealander and former Commonwealth Secretary-General, once called neo-colonialism.

Serious students of the influence of Australia and New Zealand on Pacific Island countries cannot avoid but look closely at the the hows and whys of last month's PACER-Plus (Pacific Agreement on Closer Relations) in Apia, from which Fiji, probably illegally, was excluded on the basis of its suspension from the PI Forum, arguably a different organization. It has also been excluded from the PACER follow-up meeting in Cairns next month.

It must be asked why the rush with PACER when earlier the Pacific Island leaders' "Pacific Plan" wanted a 5-year build-up? Why were Pacific Island officials (with trade expertise) separated from their politicians for an "informal" part of the Apia meeting when important decisions were made, without their advice? Is it true that many officials were furious, and that one flew home almost immediately?

Why was Fiji excluded from the PACER meetings? Knowing its reservations about free trade and outside dominance, did Australia and New Zealand connive its (possibly illegal) exclusion?

Why was Dr Roman Gynberg's Forum contract not renewed? He was the Economic Governance Director. Did some countries not welcome the advice he gave? Was he too much on the Pacific Islands' side? Grynberg is no fly-by-night expatriate adviser. He's been around the Pacific for years and has also been a senior economic adviser to the Commonwealth Secretariat. He worked under McKinnon. Soon after his "dismissal" he wrote "Who Owns the Pacific Islands Forum?" which pointed two fingers south and westward. Is it true he will be replaced with an Australian? It is not forgotten how Australia pressured Pacific Island governments to appoint Australian Greg Urwin as the Forum Secretary-General.

• To read more on these questions, start with this damning overview in the Samoan Observer.
• Follow this up with Adam Wolfenden's persuasive and disturbing article republished in the blog Stuck in Fiji M.U.D.
  
• The blog site includes earlier postings on the same topic, including an earlier NZ Herald report.
• To read why Grynberg's contract was not renewed again visit the Samoan Observer
• Then read what Islands Business had to say

Our (Australia and NZ) policies on the present Fiji political situation are predicated by our perceptions of ourselves and what we perceive to be proper relations between "us" and "them." This is why the PACER issue is especially important at this time. It may help us, as the poet Robbie Burns observed in his poem To a Louse, to see ourselves as others see us.

O would some Power the gift to give us
To see ourselves as others see us!
It would from many a blunder free us,
And foolish notion.....

For the full poem, in Scots dialect, click here.

Photo: PI Forum flags. Acknowledgement: Forum Secretariat, Suva
Disclosure: Roman Grynberg and I were once colleagues at the University of the South Pacific in Suva.

14 Reactions to the PM's 'Road Map' -- Take Your Pick

9 Newspaper or Radio Accounts, 4 "Inside Sources", 1 Comment

(-) Fiji Democracy and Freedom Movement, NGO, Sydney
Waiting until 2012 to debate a new constitution is "a charade to ensure the military regime prolongs its hold on power" said spokesperson Usaia Waqatairewa, who wouldn’t be surprised if the election date was put back further.

(-) Prof. Brij Lal, ANU
"The new roadmap will prolong the suffering of the people unnecessarily ... it is an irony that on the day the Commodore has announced his road map, he has also extended the emergency regulations."

(-) Coupfourpointfive, Auckland
"Bainimarama tried to fool Fiji and the world when he delivered his strategic framework for change national address today ...it is basically to pull wool over people's eyes"[referring back to his failure to hold elections by March 2009, and then in 2010. Delaying work on the new Constitution until September 2012]"confirms that elections are the last thing on the mind's of Bainimarama's, the military council and the coup leader’s closest ally and adviser, interim Attorney-General Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum."

(-) Australia and New Zealand
Both governments have reacted negatively to the address, and called again for immediate elections.

(+) Fiji Police Commissioner Cde Esala Teleni
"The strategic framework ... is the best way for forward for Fiji. “The government’s priority now is the socio-economic life of people and it is important for me as commissioner of police to provide a conducive environment for that in terms of stability and security." [The police force will be strengthened with upgraded communications, transport and forensic tools.]

(+) Fiji Chamber of Commerce
President Swani Maharaj said the FCC was impressed with the new Fiji vision. "Bainimarama has been very committed especially on non-racial politics....I’ve always thought that the 1997 Constitution no matter what people say was a racist constitution.”

(+) Fiji Retailers Association
President Himmat Lodhia urged the business sector to throw their full support behind Government, now that it has indicated the direction it would take. “This is the first time the message from the government is clear in which direction they are moving, that is the most important thing ...As a business community we will support it,” he reiterated.

(+) Suva Chamber of Commerce
President Nur Bano Ali echoed similar sentiments. “Government has indicated the road they have chosen and all I can say is that these are very positive things so the private sector will have to play its part.”

But Perhaps Much Depends on Who is Asking the Question

A small research exercise I conducted at USP in the late 1990s sought to see whether the ethnicity of the interviewer affected answers . It did, and the results were statistically significant. Those interviewed by a person of the same ethnicity were more forthright in their answers; with people of a different ethnicity they more cautious, often I suspect answering in a way to please the interviewer. Thus, on the question "Should the military be more ethnically balanced", Fijians to Fijians said 'no', and to Indo-Fijians 'yes.' while Indo-Fijian to IF said 'yes' and to Fijians said 'no' or 'perhaps.'

I suspect something of this sort has influenced the 'business' responses cited above. One of my "inside sources", normally a government supporter, wrote:

Source 1. (-) "I was at the speech yesterday, it was very strange indeed in all honesty it lacked substance and was a waste of money. All [the business and other people] I have spoken to have very similar feelings, they have lost support for the government and feel the situation is now hopeless...They have all but walked away from the government, again citing the same reasons, nothing will be done, the wrong people are running the country, etc."

Source 2, who also attended the meeting.
(+) "The thing that amazed me was that the ... Centre was packed - absolutely packed with no seats left. ... I was surprised that it was rather short but, on reflection, I guess he just wanted to paint the big broad strokes for the future. All the comments I heard (mainly from the business people) were positive. There was a feeling that he was addressing the big issues that have not been addressed in the past. If anything the speech gave people a lost of assurance of a certain time frame. Some businessmen said the speech could well encourage investment because the processes were defined."

Source 3, who was not at the meeting but who earlier had some support for Bainimarama:
(-) "I am afraid I am very cynical about FB's promises and claims after what has transpired this far [restrictions on the media, the Emergency Regulations, alleged favouritism and nepotism in the senior public service, arbitrary imposition of the 55 year retirement age. As for...]"democracy will be given to the people in 2014 on a silver platter....Only naive people would believe this nonsense. Participatory democracy cannot emerge out of 8 years of military and 'coercive' rule ... I don't see any reason for the on-going imposition of PER."

"We should and can move more quickly to constitution-making and to the general election - the electoral provisions should be in the form of a separate law outside the constitution. Unfortunately ...FB and his cronies have their own personal agenda."

Source 4, who always opposed the coup but who originally thought Bainimama well intended:
(o-) "It all depends on the good faith and commitment of the regime. Neither is much in evidence ... electoral reform and a new Constitution are low on its priorities ....it is not apparent that the regime is ready to engage as yet." (June 18)

"The situation here continues to drift ... The road map announced today by the Commander is a beginning. Dialogue and engagement need to be commenced as soon as possible as the regime rules by decree. If one has elections by September 2014, and that is not a given, it will have governed for nearly eight years. Meanwhile institutions such as the courts, the public service, police, health services and the like are being weakened as arbitrariness and whim replace process and autonomy. The country will survive but at what cost?" (July 3)

My own comment

This mix of responses is a clear demonstration of the adverse effect of restricting media freedom, and freedom of association. Too few people are saying what they really think. Indeed some, publicly, seem to be saying the opposite. There is no opportunity to debate, consider alternatives, or dispute rumours and false allegations. The so-called Pacific "talanoa" way of decision-making and resolving disputes is inoperable.

Such a state of affairs constitutes a very serious threat to Government.

• It is denied good advice. It is only able to appoint non-critical people to its offices and boards.
  
• It is in danger of irretrievably "losing the middle ground" as more of its former supporters (and those willing to give it the benefit of the doubt) become disillusioned.
  
• With the "wrong people" running the country, the economy could falter, and all the Government's intended infrastructural and social reforms need money.

If Bainimarama has an eye on tomorrow's history books, he should know that unless his reforms succeed -- and are made permanent -- his grandchildren will be reading of his "failed coup" (and the backlash his opponents will exact). Good intentions are not enough. He must engage the middle ground. And the first, and most important step along this path is the full (or at least partial and progressive) relaxation of media controls.

(G) The "Road Map" and Events to 2014

Made your views known. To see Realfijinews poll on the speech, click here.

The PM's Address at the Tradewinds Convention Centre on Fiji’s Strategic Framework for Change, July 1 2009.

Click here to read in full from the official government website.

I know some readers will be disappointed at the lack of detail. It certainly wouldn't do as a military map, and it does seem to take a long time to get from A (now) to B (constitution, elections), but with the destination logged in and set on auto-pilot, the address suffices to show Government is serious about reform and elections in September 2014.

One might hope the international community, having given up on earlier elections, might sometime between now and then respond to Bainimarama's appeal for assistance. “I invite our international partners and relevant development agencies who are interested in facilitating the practicalities of the rule of law, creating transparency, facilitating access to justice and removing systematic corruption, to work with our Chief Justice, the Independent Legal Services Commission, the Legal Aid Commission and the Fiji Independent Commission Against Corruption (FICAC) respectively.”

Bainimarama said the "Government is committed on the need to facilitate the practicalities of the rule of law, creating transparency, facilitating access to justice and removing systematic corruption.”

Government is also concerned with law and order. PER (the public emergency regulations) are extended to the end of this year. "Some people with dirty political motives are awaiting the removal of the emergency regulations to organise a protest march against some government decisions."

My Summary of the Road Map (quotes from Bainimarama)

The first 3 years (2009-2012): a "period of immense change."

1. More efficient government (Government has already cut $190m from government expenditure from January-May this year). "Workers and civil servants of the country that they will be treated fairly" but Bainimarama said that "they have to become more efficient and productive."

• Divestment of Government shares and closure or amalgamation of non-performing department
• More outsourcing to the private sector
• Rewriting of town and country planning laws that impede development

2. Focus on implementing social and infrastructural needs:

• Strengthen "infrastructure and assist in building capacities within the judiciary."($500,000 extra already allocated)
• Continuing work on reducing corruption
• Upgrading police infrastructure: communications, transport, forensic tools
• "Seek to empower the marginalized and address areas of neglect."
• Develop "pro-growth and pro-poor" policies in co-operation with financial institutions and the private sector
• Laws on underage marriage and domestic violence

3. Tourism. Laucala Island Resort and Natadola Bay resorts completed. Ongoing work on Naisoro Island project. Hopeful sale of

2010. Implementation of Land Reforms. This will result in:

• Attractive rental returns to ordinary Fijian landowners (the present system skims off most rental money before it reaches the "grassroots" owners)
• More secure tenure for tenants; increased productive land use.
• The ownership of traditional Fijian land to remain unchanged.

“We cannot realise our potential in agriculture, improve the living conditions of the taukei (indigenous Fijians), if land is not made available on a long term, sustainable basis.”

2011. Nadarivatu hydroelectric power project (41.76mW) completed. Road improvements continue.

2012. Consultations with stakeholders on the Constitution.

"The impetus [will]from People's Charter recommendations" [but there will be further inputs] "Consultations shall be extensive and will not just be limited to political parties. It shall include civil society including non- governmental organizations and citizens of our country." Topics to be discussed with include:

• “Common and equal citizenship"
• New (racial-free) voting system
• Proposed new voting age at 18
• Size of parliament and terms of office
• Checks and balances on parliament
• A bi-cameral system (the old Senate)

"The new constitution must include provisions that will entrench common and equal citizenry, it must not have ethnic based voting; the voting age shall be 18; and it must have systems that hold elected governments accountable with more checks and balances."

2013. Constitution completed by September to "allow all Fijians and parliamentary candidates ample time to familiarise themselves with the new constitution."

• Constitution to be translated into the vernacular, and with a concise "pocket-size" version available.

2014. September. Elections.

Bainimrama concluded:

"My fellow citizens, your Excellencies what I am saying is that I and my Government have a vision to make Fiji realize its true potential – a potential that can be realized through building a strong nation state, by empowering all our citizens, by fixing up the decades of neglected infrastructure, by providing actual adherence to the principles of the rule of law, by putting in place sustainable institutions and laws that will create accountability, transparency, justice, fair play and modernity; by improving living standards and alleviating poverty; by putting in place a liberalized and level playing field economy."

(+) No Turning Back, PM Tells the World

Fijilive

I'm waiting for the dust to settle -- and there's quite a bit of it -- before commenting on the PM's "road map," launched yesterday at Tradewinds just out of Suva. I'm hoping I'll be better equipped to comment after I've read what others have to say but this, of course, will depend on the quality of the comments. Later today I'll publish a "chronology of events" leading to the 2014 elections from official Government sources. Meanwhile, read the FijLive account of what Bainimarama had to say by clicking the embedded link above.

(o) Tasteless Blog Posting on Swine 'Flu in Fiji

UPDATE July 1. 7pm. There are now 19 confirmed cases. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Secretariat of the South Pacific (SPC) , with financial help from AUSAid and NZAid and manufacturers Roche, have donated 167,000 capsules of Tamiflu, enough to protect 2% of the population, and surgical masks and other protective apparatus to Fiji. Tamiflu is only used for severe cases. Fiji Sun.

Coupfourpointfive is one of the few rational anti-government blogs. Its particular strength is that it publishes information from "insiders" that is not, and at present cannot, be published by the Fiji media. Its comments (and presumably posts) are vetted by an Auckland-based panel before publishing. I have no problem with its anti-government stance; its insider information (necessarily anonymous and for the most part unverifiable) or its vetting of material submitted for publication. I do, however, think too many racist comments and unreasoned postings pass its censors. Freedom of the press is not compromised by censoring scurrilous and misleading reports.

Monday's post (June 29) that blames the Government for the spread of swine 'flu is a case in point. It seems to have escaped the writer's reasoning that if Government is responsible for swine 'flu (and all the "bad" things that happen in Fiji) it is, by the same logic, also responsible for the rugby wins over Samoa and Tonga! How silly can we be!

Here's the posting:

"Regime's anti-proof plan for swine flu fails. Fiji has now got ten cases of the swine flu virus. Six of them are employees of mobile company Digicel.The workers contracted the virus via a PNG national who can't be traced. Two weeks ago the interim regime said their contingency plans for the virus was foolproof. [There are] concerns over whether people will be able to afford a packet of Tamiflu to treat the virus. A packet of Tamiflu in Fiji costs $90."

Comment Late June 30 there were 11 confirmed cases. Tamiflu is issued free after check-ups at health centres. NZ's "population clock"at 11pm last night (Monday) gives NZ a population of 4,313,604 people, a little over four times Fiji's estimated population. As of today we have 587 confirmed cases of swine flu, up 64 since yesterday. Fiji, on a per capita comparison basis, should therefore have about 120 cases -- not ten! The later arrival of the virus probably accounts for the lower figure but at this stage the figure is neither a failure or a cause for alarm. Fiji should endeavour to contain the number of cases as long as possible, but there could come a point, as it did in NZ two weeks' ago, that health authorities switch from containment to management.

Rather than gloating that the Government's health plans were not "foolproof" (and only a fool would made such a claim. I doubt that "foolproof" was the actual word used) everyone with friends and relations in Fiji should be worried that the 'flu may reach pandemic proportions.

New Zealand has a far better endowed health system than Fiji, but even here authorities predict the numbers affected will run into thousands, with more than a few deaths. The 'flu will also have a major economic impact due to absenteeism, loss of production, fewer travellers, and a slump in demand. The NZ Treasury estimates a worst case scenario will result in a 75% reduction in business for accommodation, restaurants and bars, and 25% drops in retail and transport business. Economists predict our GDP would fall by 1.4% in a "mild" pandemic, and 5 to 18% in a worst case scenario (NZ Listener June 27-July 7). Let us hope and pray this does not happen in NZ - or Fiji. World-wide, laboratories are working in a race against the virus to produce a vaccine to replace Tamiflu.

Footnote (not to alarm but as an historical record). The 1918 Spanish 'flu pandemic is the worse recorded. It killed nearly 9,000 NZers, with Maori dying at seven times the rate of Pakeha. Nearly one-quarter of the population of Tonga and Samoa died. In Nuku'alofa the dead were buried in several mass graves by sailors from a visiting warship. There were too few healthy Tongans to perform this task.

As for Fiji, about 14% of Fiji's population died within the first two weeks (further records were not kept!), and an estimated 85-90% of those living in Suva town and district were thought by authorities to have been infected.

Unless the virus mutates, 2009 should not be another 1918 but it is faulty logic and exceedingly poor taste to exaggerate and put blame where it does not belong. Political capital should not be made out of a serious health situation. Fiji's health services are not perfect now, nor were they before 2006. Photo:Fiji Live.

Snippets: Micro-Credit, FICAC, Methodist Church Warned, Minimum Wages, Overseas Indo-Fijians Help Poor

Bainimarama to address nation. The PM is expected to address the nation on Wednesday with a new "road map." According to State media, the address at the Trade Winds Convention Centre in Lami on Wednesday morning will focus on Fiji’s “strategic framework for change”.

Micro-Credit. The Reserve Bank is encouraging local banks to provide micro-financingthat would help small business, old and new. Fiji Live. Click here.

Tax evasion? Documents were seized from the supermarket chain RB Patel last week by Fiji Independent Commission Against Corruption, with its widened powers, to check on possible tax evasion. Fiji Times.Click here.

The PM has warned Methodist Church leaders to stop misleading the people by saying its conference will go ahead in August. He also cautioned parents against their children being used in an August march. FijiVillage. Click here.

Minimum wages non-compliance only $100.The new minimum wage awards start today but Government still needs to fix a provision that sets the fine for failing to comply at a mere $100! Fiji Master Builders Association President and owner of Raghwan Construction, Vijay Raghwan said the increases are long overdue. He said most construction companies will not have a problem since they are already paying above the wage rate. Fiji Village. Click here.

Educational help for poor Indo-Fijians. Help for The Auckland-based International Congress of Fiji Indians has collected $F100,000 for distribution to poor children in Fiji to pursue their education.The organisation, comprising Indo-Fijians in Auckland, Brisbane and Sydney, was established in 2000 after the George Speight-led coup to look after the growing generation to achieve educational standards and look after themselves and their families. Daily Post. Click here.

Trade with New Zealand. Pacific Island Trade Commissioner to NZ Chris Cocker, told a Nadi workshop on Pacific Island Agricultural Trade Opportunities with NZ, the Pacific was worth $1.2 billion to NZ, and Fiji represented 90 per cent of the Pacific share in the NZ market. Most exports to NZ were fruit and vegetables targeted at NZ's large Pacific island population. For the record, NZ exports to Fiji are worth four times more than Fiji's exports to NZ. There are no sanctions on trade. Fiji Sun. Click here.

(+) Melanesian Spearhead Group Wants Dialogue with Fiji

FijiLive reports a Vanuatu initiative for the Melanesian bloc to re-open dialogue with Fiji, closed since the Pacific Islands Forum suspended Fiji's membership.Click here.

(o) Minimum Wage Increases: Feedback and Comment

The minimum wage increases, though long overdue, have come at a bad time for a Fiji garment industry that in December 2008 employed an estimated 10,000 workers. Had employers voluntarily increased minimum wages a few years back when their profits soared, Wednesday's increase would have been less than 20%.

Since December there has been a 20% decline in orders, and several factories have reduced their labour force or cut working hours. While further layoffs may not be caused by Wednesday's wage increases, the increases certainly will not help. It's become a damned if you do or damned if you don't situation for employers. Retain today's workforce, with some workers paid more than before (but with many still paid below the poverty line), or cut the workforce leaving those made redundant with no wage income at all. One hopes garment employers (whose relations with their worker has been uneven, to say the least) will do all they can to be fair to their workers, while keeping their factories, if truly sustainable, afloat.

I have received two comments by email on the minimum wage posting. (It's easier for me if comments are added by clicking "comment" at the bottom of posts.)

The first was from 'Bhaiya':

"I hope that Bainimarama doesn’t buckle to employers’ insider lobbying yet again! Fr. Barr has done a lot of work on this and a number of ‘progressive employers’ have accepted that wages in Fiji need to be increased. The background on the [garment] industry is important. Many fly-by-night operators set up factories, made their money and took off, sometimes not paying the workers their wages! There were several cases of workers turning up to work to find the factory gates closed."[My encyclopaedic atlas, see picture side bar, has a section on most industries, including garments and clothing.]

The second comment sent via Wages Council Chairperson Fr Barr was from Mark Halabe of Mark One Apparel Ltd. markoneapparel@hotmail.com

Mark Halabe's Feedback (1-7) and My Replies (in red)
Thank you for the email and the attached article. Please allow me to make some brief comments:

1. Wages Council may have not have been active, but unions have, wages were increased over the last 3 years so it's not true that all workers had no wage increases.
Croz: Did all or any minimum wage garment workers receive increases? The increase (20%) is high compared with most other industries. This is presumably because "high" is needed to compensate for exceptionally "low."

2. There is a 15% withholding tax when repatriating profits, (as for all export income industries).
Croz: Now, but not when the TFF and TFZ's were introduced or for some years afterwards. There are, of course, many ways to send money overseas untaxed, some of them legal. Local dividends were capped at 15%, half of the "normal" rate.

3. Government provided or heavily subsidized infrastructure, is not true! (for the garment industry????)
Croz: Was there really no infrastructure at the Valelevu TFZ when Mark One Apparel moved in? Or no tax concessions against infrastructural costs?

4. Cost of manufacture is still a critical factor when marketing Fiji as a competitor to Asia, even as we fulfill Walsh's wish list!
Croz: Fiji's garment industry, as presently structured, can only compete against Asia in "short runs" and quick delivery to Australian and NZ markets. The "wish list" is mainly Australia/SPARTECA's, not mine. See link on post. Economist Prof. Ron Duncan was made similar comments. He said "Despite a 17.5% price advantage over imports, the industry is still shrinking." See Fiji Times. I recall you agreed with some of his argument. Also see Storey reference* below.

5. Over the last 20 years less than 1% of gross income equated to profit, not a great investment, nor a great incentive to keep investing in Fiji.
Croz: Clearly unprofitable. But this is not due to high wages or unsympathetic governments. The industry has not adapted sufficiently to changing circumstances in terms of upskilling, plant, products, and markets. Again, these are not my thoughts but those of experts.

6. Since we last met all of my predictions have unfortunately come true, we are now down to less than 300 staff from (700 in 2007).
7. This year has been the worst in 20 years for Mark One and the industry, with little or no signs of improvement.
We reap what we sew (pun intended). This wage increase will only bring less and will not stimulate the economy as you [Fr Barr] have predicted. Time will tell and I hope for the sake of the Fiji economy that I am wrong."
Croz: I sympathize, I truly do because your reputation is as an honest and fair employer (certainly compared with many others as 'Bhaiya' observed, above), but as noted in the post, it is the nature of capitalism that non-competitive businesses collapse. If low wages only produced 1% gross income equating to profit, far more than low wages are needed to make the industry profitable.

Finally, Some Arithmetic
You were reported in the Fiji Times (10 Dec.) as saying the 20% increase would mean an extra cost of $300,000 a year to Mark One Apparel. I have some difficulty with this figure. There will, of course, be a "carry through effect" to some workers who are paid above the minimum wage, but if we take the $1.48 to $1.78 minimum wage increase as typical , we have an increase of 30 cents an hour (and those on $1.25 will receive only 25 cents), or $13.20 for a 44-hour week, and $673.20 for a 51-week year.

This multiplied by your 300 (and falling) staff results in $201,960, nearly $100,000 less than your figure. Excuse the pun, but that's a lot of bula shirts!

* For a very readable history of the garment industry's ups, downs and futures, read Dr Donovan Storey. Click here.

(o) What Do Fiji Citizens Really Think?

FijiLive runs readers polls that can be answered on line. Looking at 20 political polls since October last year allows some broad conclusions, with these reservations. Unfortunately, the polls are far from scientific. They are not random samples of opinion. We know nothing of the numbers polled, and nothing about the pollsters themselves other than that they ticked yes or no to certain questions. Some of the questions could have been better worded. We can be reasonably sure, however, that the results reflect the honest opinions of those polled. Here are some of the results:

On Chiefs and Church
Late last year in two polls pollsters were asked whether Bainimarama should apologize to the chiefs. 76 and 63% ticked No. This question has no value unless we at least know the ethnicity of the pollsters. A March poll asked whether the Methodist Church conference should be allowed also had little validity unless Methodists were fairly represented. 57% ticked no.

On Early Elections
Several polls asked about holding early elections as demanded by the international community. To secure $350m aid to help the sugar industry, 57% ticked yes. To comply with the PI Forum ultimatum, 58% ticked no (although 52% thought Fiji's suspension justified) but 64% thought the international community should not "relax pressure to hold early elections."

On UN Peacekeepers
On new hiring new Fiji peacekeepers, 66% ticked yes.

On Sanctions and Travel Bans
Four polls were on sanctions and travel bans. In December, 72% thought that Australia and NZ should "soften" their stance. This month 68% thought there was "too much unnecessary pressure" and earlier, in February, 62% thought Fiji's Pacific neighbours should not impose bans.

On the Internal Situation
There were four polls on the internal situation. In October last year 63% thought the NCBFF and People's Charter processes were "a waste of taxpayers' money." This was not a good question because we do no know the effect of costs on process. A more carefully worded question would not have linked the two. In April, 56% thought the President had done the right thing in abrogating the 1997 Constitution, but only 38% thought Fiji would return to democracy by 2011. Earlier this month, 81% thought the political parties should support the Government's initiatives to take the country forward. The first and third polls (NCBFF and 2011) seem at odds with the other two.

Conclusions?
What can be concluded from this hotchpotch? If the polls are at all indicative of public opinion, the overriding conclusion is that the country is deeply divided. Only on one issue was the poll clear-cut: 81% wanted an independent body to investigate complaints against lawyers!

Economic considerations seem to moderate political positions (EU aid and UN peacekeepers) . Most pollsters did not approve external sanctions, threats and ultimatums (the Australian, NZ and PI Forum), but most people (64%) wanted some external pressure on the Government to hold early elections.

A high proportion wanted the political parties to support Government initiatives (presumably on the assumption this would mean a quicker return to democracy) which is a positive sign; but that only 38% of pollsters in April thought Fiji would return to "democratic rule by 2011" is less encouraging.

There was considerable support for "early" elections but an equally strong indication that many people did not welcome others telling them what to do.(56% approved the abrogation, and the response to perceived outside interference) But who they were, and why they thought so, we have no way of knowing.

A regular, properly constructed poll on key political issues could be an important tool for government. It would also give foreign government and agencies a more "independent" measure of Fiji public opinion than they have at present.

POSTSCRIPT. Our own poll on whether Australian and NZ policies are too inflexible resulted in 73% ticking Yes and 27% ticking no. While only 46 people answered, it is good to see that people of different persuasions are visiting the site.

(+B) Minimum Wages and the Garment Industry: Government Keeps Promise But Could Make New Powerful Enemies

UPDATE June 27, 2009.
NARSEY: SMALL EMPLOYERS CAN SEEK RELIEF; LARGER EMPLOYERS CAN PAY

Economist Dr Wadan Narsey says “there will be no doubt that small employers will feel the pinch of dishing out extra wages" and those who think they cannot cope can show their audited accounts to the Wages Council. However, "larger employers have been making big profits for too long without raising wages [and] can comply with the minimum wage rate." A 20 percent wage increment would mean a dent of thousands of dollars in their profit margins, but the average worker has been denied increments for more than ten years and has been living under the poverty line for a long time. “It will make a difference to people who earn $70 a week. What can one buy nowadays with that much money?” Based on FijiLive.

The news that the Government will go ahead with the minimum wage award, deferred from February,at employers' request, on July 1st has, understandably, received a mixed reception. Retail Association President Himmat Lodhia says the increase is unsustainable in the present economic climate and will result in layoffs and shorter working hours. Others called the increase "suicidal" and counter to last week's Reserve Bank pleas to keep inflation in check. Spokesmen for most industries think the increases will most affect small operators.

Wage Council Chairperson Fr Kevin Barr acknowledges the employers' difficulties, but thought the small increases would help stimulate the economy with workers having a little more to spend. Referring to the garment industry, he said the industry "should not expect to survive on the basis of poverty wages." Even after the increases an experienced garment worker on $1.78 an hour working for a 40-hour week will only earn $71, less than one-half of the $164 poverty line. They have received no wage increase, or allowances for increases in the cost of living, for over three years. No journalist apparently thought to ask the opinions of the workers concerned.

Background on the Garment Industry

The industry flourished after the 1987 Coup when the Government cut tariffs and import taxes, established tax-free factories (TFF) and tax-free zones (TFZ), and offered tax-free packages to attract foreign investors and entice local manufacturers to increase production. Overseas and local manufacturers were allowed to repatriate profits in full. Government provided or heavily subsidized infrastructure. Protected by preferential tariffs on exports to Australia, NZ and the USA, the industry flourished. At its peak in 2000-2001 the industry was responsible for 12% of Fiji's GDP, 33% of its exports by value (it's now about 14%), and employed 20,000 workers, or 29% of Fiji's wage workers, most of them women, and two-thirds of them Indo-Fijians.

From then it has been all downhill. The preferential tariff to the USA expired, SPARTECA* was extended(from 2004 to 2011) but to little effect (for the volume and value of exports decreased); factories closed or merged; most foreign firms left; Government withdrew its TFF and TFZ concessions. Owners complained of low productivity and competition, for low as their wages were, Fiji workers were paid four times more than their Chinese counterparts. Even before the 2006 Coup things looked bleak for the industry. The reality then, and now, is that the industry cannot compete with China. The new wage awards are a minute part of the problem. To survive, the industry has to upgrade skills and equipment, develop new products, find niche markets and improve productivity by better employer-employee relations, and decrease its dependence on Australia and New Zealand (Walsh 2006).

It is the nature of capitalism that inefficient firms collapse, and smaller firms are swallowed by bigger ones. Reseacher Wadan Narsey found no evidence of firms collapsing simply because of higher wages. The remaining firms should use this opportunity to upgrade their act. Their exports will be helped by the 20% devaluation of the Fiji dollar; Government has indicated it will help all it can, and Australia and NZ could assist with markets and skill upgrading. And once they are confident they will survive, the garment factory owners can bring back some of the untaxed profits they sent overseas in the "good years" and reinvest it, at a much improved exchange rate, in their more efficient factories.

Bainimarama has kept his promise (we will know definitely by next Wednesday) but the decision to proceed with the minimum wage award is a courageous one. Employers constitute a powerful political lobby, far stronger than un-unionized female garment workers, most of whom would have supported Bainimarama anyway.

The New Minimum Wage Rates
The July minimum wage increase will see current garment worker wages for beginners increase from F$1.25 to $1.50 an hour, and for those employed for over five months from $1.48 to $1.78. Over the nine industries affected, the increases are: garment, wholesale and retail 20%; road transport 5%; manufacturing, beginner printers 50 cents; building, saw milling, civil and electrical engineering 40-50 cents, hotel and catering 35 cents, security 30 cents. The Fiji dollar is worth 80 cents NZ, and 60 cents Australian.

* See SPARTECA report for Australia's highly critical view of the industry, and February Fiji Times article and comments when the increases were thought imminent. I now see why the question was asked: What does it profit a man if he should gain the whole world and lose his own soul? Matthew 6: 19-21

Photo: Fiji Live.

(+) We Want One Nation, PM Tells Recruits

Click here for FijiLive report.

(o+) Think Pacific, not European

I am once again reminded about how little outsiders, and I am one of them, understand of Pacific Islanders. Pippa Brown's report on last night's public discussion in Auckland organized by the Pacific Media Centre on what it means to be a Tongan, led by the region's foremost activist on media freedom, 'Eakalafi (Kalafi) Moala is a case in point. Publisher, broadcaster, former pro-democracy MP, imprisoned, banned, multiple winner of the Media Freedom Award, author of In Search of the Friendly Islands (Pasifika Foundation), one might have thought he would have used the opportunity to denounce the Fiji regime and its curtailment of media freedom. That he chose not to do so does not mean he agrees with the regime. I think he saw no point in further denunciation. He sought a solution, a Pacific solution.

I quoted from Pippa's report:

Moala questions why the Pacific region is trying to solve the current Fiji political problem in an confrontational way.“Why not solve it in a Pacific way and let the Pacific sovereignty leaders meet Fiji and see how we can open up the dialogue,” he asks.

Moala thinks New Zealand is a country that is standing in confrontation with Fiji so Maori may offer a solution. Going in as an outsider hasn’t worked but to look at the issue as Pacific brothers may work. “It hasn’t been solved within the current framework so we need to find another one,” he says. He thinks the Forum had the right to suspend Fiji “but we don’t need to keep beating them up.” Moala says the heads of government in the Pacific Island Forum may have some conflict with the duality of the Pacific and Western frameworks.

A Personal Aside

I taught 'Eakalafi at Tonga High School in the mid-1960s. On my recommendation he became Dux and Head Prefect. Years later, in 1997, in the school's golden jubilee magazine he wrote Walsh was "the man most responsible for motivating me in leadership in those days" and went on to say "I have never met Walsh again since I left school, and he probably does not realise the impact he made on my life." Malo 'aupito, 'Eakalafi. You make me a lucky man. Most teachers are left wondering if any of their work has "made a difference."

That's another thing to learn about the Pacific: its physical distances are huge, but nearly everyone is connected in one way or another, and time has no meaning when old friends meet.

Photo: Te Ara.

(-) FNPF and DPP Dismissals: What's Going On?

On June 11 PM Bainimarama congratulated the FNPF Board; on June 24, following a "review of the functions, objectives and board membership of various statutory organizations and other State-related entities" he thanked them again as he dismisses all but one of them. What's going on?

The Board, usually appointed by the PM in consultation with the Minister of Finance (Bainimarama holds both positions) consists of six members, two each nominated by employers, the trade unions represent employees, and two members represent government. With assets totalling over $3 billion and control over 8% of Fiji's wages and salaries (and another 8% from employers), more than government wisdom is needed to run the Board.

A business involving members' savings, retirement pensions, member house purchases and improvements, discretionary assistance with medical and educational expenses, and investments that include 100% ownership of the new Intercontinental Fiji Golf Resort and Spa at Natadola* and the $80 million (sic!) it seeks to recover from the jinxed Momi Bay tourism development (NZ investors in Bridgecorp lost $107 million in this fiasco), such a business needs experienced business heads, free to express their opinions.

"We had a meeting at the weekend and reviewed the function and objective of the FNPF board,” said Bainimarama. “We have to operate cost effectively and reduce the Fund’s exposure, and ensure we make wise investments to maximize benefits to the members.” Just like that! It is unclear how replacing one pro-Government majority Tweedle-Dee Board with another of Tweedle-Dums will achieve these results. One might have thought that Government's best moves at present is to keep things as they are, and avoid alienating anyone further.

According to the Coupfourpointfive blog neither employers nor unionists were consulted on the dismissal of their representatives, but since most of the old board were Bainimarama supporters it hardly seems likely the move was made to remove opponents of whatever plans Government may have for the FNPF. One early outcome is that the FTUC whose nominees were dismissed has said it will not allow its members to accept FNPF appointments. Its rival union. the FICTU, has always assumed an anti-government position and is unlikely to be invited to the Board. With this union stand-off Coupfourpointfive predicts Government "will change the criteria of membership to the Board [drop employee and possibly employer representation and pick all six members] from personalities who sympathize with them." For details on the people involved, see the Coupfourpointfive blogsite.

* 216 rooms, 35 acres. Vijay Singh-designed 18-hole golf course.

Assistant Director of Public Prosecutions Dismissed

In an equally disturbing move, Coupfourpointfive and three Fiji daily newspapers, report that the Assistant Director of Public Prosecutions, Andie Driu, has been dismissed after being accused of being "disloyal to the government of the day." She had apparently said she would remain neutral and follow the law. She was sacking by the recently appointed Acting DPP, John Rabuku. Driu was one of three Assistant DPP's. Her dismissal leaves only one Assistant DPP, the other resigned late last year and has not been replaced.

Wages
The only good news is that it seems Bainimarama is keeping his promise to enact the minimum wage legislation on July 1st.

(o-) Inclusive Dialogue Only Way Forward: Beddoes

In an phone interview with RNZI today, General Voters' UPP leader and former Leader of the Opposition Mike Beddoes (photo, centre) said the only way to resolve the political situation was the way we've always done it, by dialogue. He predicted Cde Bainimarama's "road map" will come to nothing unless the dialogue is inclusive, involving all parties. Without this, the changes sought by the Government will be reversed by the Government eventually elected. Speaking of PER, the Public Emergency Regulations, he said that it stifled pro-democracy voices and prevented moves towards dialogue. Even his comments on this interview put him at risk. "All it takes is one individual to [mis] interpret what I'm saying, and I'll end up in jail."

(+) Race Used to Divide the Nation

There is no room for racial discrimination is this government, says interim PM Cde Voreqe Bainimarama. Speaking at Dawasamu, Tailevu yesterday Cdre Bainimarama said the interim government was committed to eradicating discrimination at all levels. "I will not tolerate racial discrimination as a way of dividing people of this nation."

This may mean having to write a new constitution "so that racial discrimination, a tool previously used by many politicians to win votes, is eradicated."

Cdre Bainimarama said Government did not want a repetition of the 2000 [Speight coup] event where little trust was shared by Fijians and other races and drove many people to parliament to support rebel leader George Speight for no reason. FijiSun.

(+) 2006 Coup Different from 1987 and 2000 Coups

Prime Minister and Army Commander Cde Frank Bainimarama said the 2006 military takeover led by him was different from the 1987 military coups and George Speight's civilian coup in May 2000.

Speaking to 400 soldiers on Infantry Day at QEB this morning, Commodore Bainimarama reiterated that the 2006 takeover is to wipe out corrupt politicians and eradicate racial politics in Fiji.

He said some politicians and chiefs thought that they would benefit from the 2006 takeover as they did in 1987 and 2000 but he said they failed.Bainimarama also called on the soldiers not to forget the events of 2000 when soldiers lost their lives during the mutiny.
FijiVillage. June 23 2009

(+) Snippets: Irregular if not Corrupt: Shady Deals by "NZ Businessman" Ballu Khan and Provincial Chiefs; PER Extended; New Constitution; Police Crusade

Corruption?
One of the reasons given for the 2006 Coup was the need to mount a "clean up" campaign to control corruption. To date no major incidence of corruption has been proved in the Courts, although several cases are pending.

Now FijiVillage reports on two new cases, the first involving "New Zealand Businessman" Ballu Khan; the other involving four provincial chiefs.

The Fiji Development Bank has demanded the Native Land Trust Board repay $3 million to the FDB that was loaned by businessman Ballu Khan and the company Vanua Development Corporation.

PM Frank Bainimarama (photo, in collar and tie!) wants to know how the NLTB, that is supposed to be the trustee of native land, could act as guarantor for a loan to only one individual who does not even own any native land. The current NLTB administration has declined to repay the loan saying they were not the ones who guaranteed the loan in the first place.

Bainimarama has also revealed that a known provincial council building currently rented by the government only belongs to four chiefs from that province and the land belongs to a few Indo-Fijian businessmen.This only came to light after the government made the decision to move out of the building and the chiefs said the decision to vacate the building will lead to losses for the provincial council. It was then discovered the chiefs, and not the Provincial Council or the people from the province, owned the building on land owned by some Indo-Fijian businessmen.

Public Emergency Regulations
PER, due to expire on July 10 and renewable on a monthly basis, has been extended for a further month, supposedly due to the number of meetings to be held over the few weeks. An announcement that at least some of the present restrictions on the media and public meetings would be lifted would have been better received, and could have marked the beginning of a new dialogue.

New Constitution?
Bainimarama has announced that discussions on a new constitution will commence shortly. As previously stated in this blog, the endeavour will have little support, internally or internationally, unless it is accompanied by inclusive dialogue.

Police Crusade Ends Today

The five day controversial Police Crusade Ruggers for Christ ended today with a march from the Flea market to Sukuna Park. The public was invited to join former National rugby representatives share the changes through Divine Intervention.

(+) Former NZ PM Mike Moore Labels Aust. NZ "Tarzan Act" Policies "Failure"

Former NZ PM and former WTO Secretary-General Mike Moore (photo) has criticized Australia's and NZ's policies towards Fiji, calling them a failure. He says a "game changer" is needed to break the present impasse. Click here for a short Fiji Times Report, and here for the full interview of Mike Moore and former ACT MP Ron Mark by TV interviewer Paul Holmes.

Extracts:

Mark. I think New Zealand and Australia quite clearly recognize that the last thing they want to be doing is severely impacting upon the ordinary people of Fiji and it's a very difficult line to be walking when you're trying to get the regime to accept change and to adjust, but at the same time not wishing to severely harm the livelihoods of the ordinary Fijians.
Holmes. Yeah, but at the same time when you bring economic pressure, try and bring economic pressure to bring a regime to its senses, you are in fact trying to put economic pressure on the ordinary people aren't you so they bring the pressure on the regime?
Moore. Is that possible though? It'll be the World Bank not the IMF. This represents a huge diplomatic failure by New Zealand and by Australia over several decades.
Holmes. What does?
Moore. What's happened in Fiji. What is foreign policy about? Foreign policy is projecting and protecting your interests and promoting your values, and building up over many years those values and those interests. We have failed. Now having said that this is not going to be solved by beating our chest doing the Tarzan act, and pretend, you know, we criticize the Americans or the Aussies for being belligerent, and then we beat our chest and lecture and poke our fingers in the face of [Fiji] military people who don't particularly like that. This has to be worked through, you need a game changer, I know some people who are working on a game changer now, and this will not be resolved by hairy chested pp.

They went on to discuss the UN engagement of Fiji peacekeepers, both Moore and Mark applauding the good job they do and the difficulty the UN has in obtaining peacekeepers. Both thought the Aust. NZ request to the UN to cut Fiji peacekeepers was unrealistic.

Asked by Holmes about his "game changer" remark, Moore replied: "Yeah, there has to be a game changer there to allow people to move, keep their dignity and keep their faith ... but here's New Zealand, we beat our chest about this coup but we're very silent about coups in Thailand and elsewhere ..." Moore was vague about who the game changer could be.

(o) Media Free-run: Typical TVNZ News Coverage of Fiji

NZTV1 News has just finished. It included a two minute feature on Fiji with Australian Foreign Minister Stephen Smith predicting the imminent collapse of the Fiji economy, due to the world crisis and mismanagement, with a fleeting camera shot of you-know-who still in military uniform, the odd soldier or two, and a series of shots of a squatter settlement, replete with raggedly dressed children and a "grocery" store containing one lonely tin of food, included, presumably, as visual proof of Fiji's economic collapse. Tomorrow I expect my neighbour -- who watches TV to keep up with the news -- to tell me that's what happens in dictatorships, all that poverty and tin shacks. I'm tempted to reply, "You can always have proper gander if you've got the proper geese!" but I won't. He's a typical well meaning Kiwi bloke.

Obituary. Ron Crocombe MA (Victoria), PhD (ANU), Professor Emeritus (USP), Pacific Scholar

Copies of emails received, the obituary by USP Vice-Chancellor Rajesh Chandra, a general report and her account of the Auckland church service, at which sons Tata and Kevin spoke, by AUT journalist Pippa Brown, have been stored on the web by MediaFire. Click here to download. For further links, see below. See also PacificMediaWatch blog
NEW. And Pacific Media Centre blog.

For over 50 years Ron's name has been known and respected throughout the Pacific Islands. He first influenced me when, as a masterate student in 1960, I read his critique of NZ policies in the Cook Islands, where he had been a district officer. This writing and his book on land use in Rarotonga, that unravelled traditional and colonial influences, were ground-breaking for their time. We had not long started to question the munificence of colonial rule.

From the Cooks Ron went to PNG where he was director of the New Guinea Research Unit (1962-69) and then to the University of the South Pacific. There he founded the Institute of Pacific Studies to encourage Pacific writers. He wrote The New South Pacific, based on extension lectures: a mix of history, anthropology and Ron, that caused many to rethink their notions on the Pacific. There is much, much more, but I have no doubt that his most important contribution was in helping young Pacific Islanders, who up until then had been fed a diet of European education and values, gain confidence in themselves and their cultural heritage. Today his former students number among the Pacific's leaders and foremost academics. His later writings were among the first to draw attention to the increasing importance of Asia in the Pacific.

Ron never retired. For close to 20 years he commuted between the home he shared with wife Marjorie Tuainekore* in Rarotonga and his ongoing Pacific commitments in various parts of the world. Only a month ago he emailed me expressing dismay on what he took to be my pro-Fiji government stance. It was not the first time we had differed but I'm sorry that our last exchange was not more convivial. He was a man with whom you would occasionally differ, but never stop respecting. His knowledge of the Pacific was encyclopaedic, and his dedication to good Pacific outcomes unmatched. Ron died of a heart attack in a bus to Auckland airport, on the way home from Nuku'alofa, Tonga, where he'd been inducted as a Fellow in Futa Helu's 'Atenisi University. He was 79.

Kua hinga te totara, Haere te kaiako nui, Haere, Haere, Haere

* Marjorie was until recently Director of the Centre for Pacific Studies at Auckland University.

See also David Robie's and Bij Lal's obituaries in Cafe Pacific.