olitics RNZ-Reid Research Poll
RNZ-Reid Research poll: Where the public stands on capital gains tax
Photo: RNZ
More of the public want a capital gains tax than oppose the idea - assuming the family home is exempt - but it's not by a huge margin.
The support almost entirely vanishes if the family home's included, and party supporters' views on it are much less firm - on both sides of politics - than their leaders seem to be.
The RNZ-Reid Research poll asked: Do you support or oppose the introduction of a capital gains tax on properties, excluding the family home?
More than 42 percent said they did, but more than a third opposed it - with less than 7 percentage points in it, the electorate's clearly got mixed feelings.
There is some room for persuasion too - both for and against - with about 20 percent unsure about the policy.
The results are more stark when the family home is included, with just 11 percent support and more than 70 percent opposed.
Labour has been contemplating its tax policy since losing the 2023 election.
The party pitched a CGT in 2011 under Phil Goff and again in 2014 under David Cunliffe - but lost both elections against the incumbent Prime Minister John Key, whose "show me the money" quip in a debate against Goff was broadly regarded as a death knell for the policy at the time.
Goff now said the policy was not the main reason for those losses.
"Oppositions are always at risk of when they make an undertaking to spend money to show where that money is coming from," he told RNZ.
"I think there are a multitude of reasons why Labour lost in 2011 and 2014 and I wouldn't put the capital gains tax at the top of the list ... generally, after you've been in government for nine years and you're in opposition it's going to be very hard to win back government, and that was one of the key challenges that we had in in 2011; 2014 there were other reasons as well."
He argued the OECD has long called for a CGT on property, as did Treasury's outgoing chief executive Caralee McLiesh last year, and said other academics and economists also support it.
"I think that regardless of the politics of it, sometimes you've got to step back and say 'why has New Zealand not done as well as other countries?' ... the answer is therefore it's time to change and do the right thing for New Zealand, regardless of what you think the political impact might also be."
But when you break the poll numbers down by party, Labour's supporters are far from sold: less than half are keen when the family home's exempt, more than a quarter are not.
Labour's leader Chris Hipkins is promising to release a tax policy by end of year, widely rumoured to include a capital gains tax. If so, the mixed poll results put them in a somewhat difficult position.
Phil Goff. Photo:
Goff argued it's not a lost cause.
"It's quite remarkable when you think of it, because generally if you say do you support any tax measure or any rating measure, the natural inclination of people is to say no.
"Those figures that you've got there are in the absence of a positive campaign out there at the moment around the benefits of a capital gains tax to New Zealand and New Zealanders. If you get a good campaign that explains and persuades people as to the real benefits that come from having a capital gains tax, then that gap could well widen."
National has long opposed a CGT, and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon last year ruled out a capital gains tax under his leadership.
His position hasn't changed.
"I think that's the last thing, the worst thing that New Zealand needs, is more tax, more borrowing, more spending - that's what's got us into the mess, that's what caused a huge amount of pain and suffering for low and middle income working New Zealanders dealing with high interest rates and a recession," he said on Wednesday.
"We know what the Labour prescription will be - but a capital gains tax, a wealth tax, an inheritance tax, a death tax, all we know is it's going to be more tax, more borrowing, and when you look at a coalition of Labour, Te Pāti Māori and the Greens that's pretty economically dysfunctional."
But the poll results also show National's supporters are even more conflicted with the party line than Labour's, with about half against a CGT, and about a third in favour.
The numbers for ACT are not too different to those of National: slightly more opposition at 55 percent, but still a third of supporters in favour.
Leader David Seymour said he completely opposes a CGT, arguing landlords already pay tax on rent.
ACT Leader David Seymour. Photo: RNZ / Mark Papalii
"I don't believe in double taxation, more generally New Zealand needs to generate more wealth, not find new and magical ways to divide that wealth up.
"I wouldn't be surprised if there were people who wanted a capital gains tax, one of the things about the ACT Party is that we ask ourselves 'what is the right policy' and then 'how do we sell it' - we don't put our finger in the wind and then try and design policies to be popular in the short term.
"We want New Zealand to grow wealthy in the long term, capital gains tax does not make housing more affordable, that's been shown around the world where it's been tried, it does not make you wealthier, it actually is all about dragging people down and taxing them more rather than how do we push everyone up."
The Greens' supporters were the most on board with 70 percent want a CGT on investment property, just 12 percent don't.
Co-leader Marama Davidson said the government had been "taxing people who earn and not people who own - a capital gains tax is one of those solutions we are in favour of but we could probably go a lot further, in fact we do in our own policy".
New Zealand First's Winston Peters is on record firmly opposing a CGT, and was instrumental in seeing the policy defeated in the 2017-2020 term under Jacinda Ardern - who then ruled it out under her leadership.
"We're the ones that stopped it last time because they couldn't tell us what they would do about capital losses," he said.
But more than half his supporters want a CGT, compared to just over 30 percent opposing one. Peters insists the party membership backs his position.
"When they have it explained by me, they back it substantially. When they have it explained by you, quite possibly they're confused."
New Zealand First's Winston Peters. Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
Te Pāti Māori's supporters also clash directly with the party's position, with nearly half opposing a capital gains tax and just over a quarter supporting one - despite the party having campaigned on one for years.
Having tried for a CGT in 2011 and suffering election defeat in 2011, Goff clearly has not given up on the idea.
"Political opponents of the tax say this is a new and radical thing, that just increases the tax burden on people. It's neither new nor radical, because most countries in the developed world have a capital gains tax, and it works effectively.
"The National coalition representing the wealthier people in the country are plainly going to stand up for the interests of the wealthier people not to pay tax on their capital gains - but there are more ordinary folk out there who do an honest week's work, pay the tax on every dollar they earn, for whom it's unfair that others in the community pay no tax because they make their income out of a capital gain."
Separate polling by Talbot Mills and reported by The Post suggests 55 percent of Kiwis expect a CGT will be a reality by 2050.
Parties both for and against have some persuading to do - and the opportunity to change some votes by doing so - if they want their stance to win out come after next year's election.
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