Cogito, ergo sum. I think, therefore I am. (René Descartes, mathematician and philosopher,1599-1650)

Thursday 4 February 2010

One Small Step? Australia Lifts Travel Ban


Three Wise Men?
Several readers have expressed the opinion that the lifting of the travel ban by Australia signals a breakthrough in its relations with Fiji. I would like to think so also, because there can be no improvement in relations without dialogue and if the ban remains lifted, more capable people will apply for senior government positions -- and this can only be good for dialogue and democracy.

There are four reasons why I am less optimistic:
  • First, the ban had to be lifted to allow Foreign Minister Ratu Inoke Kubuabola to meet with his Australian and NZ counterparts, Stephen Smith and Murray McCully  in Canberra;
  •  Secondly, it is a qualified "case by case" lift, that can be revoked at any time, but this is probably the best that can be expected in the circumstances.  It is a pity family exemptions were not explicitly mentioned but this may the next call.
  • Thirdly, ABC interviewer Linda Mottram in the report seen by some readers says Ratu Inoke Kubuabola carries little weight with the Bainimarama government. She cites no sources, but given the Government's record of allowing different spokesmen to say different things only to have them "corrected" later by Bainimarama, her comment is at least credible. Kubuabola's mention of Parmesh Chand to McCully at their Nadi meeting  and the subequent nomination of Neumi Leweni is a specific example.
  • Fourthly, and most importantly, Smith signaled the action represented no change in their basic position: 1) Fiji must "return to democracy on a much shorter timetable than the interim government is currently indicating." 2) "There must be full and free and fair participation in the political process in Fiji which, in our view, is not occurring," 3) "We  (Australia and NZ) propose to let our views about the current arrangements in Fiji continue to be known to our neighbours and friends in the Pacific and in the Commonwealth." Link to Joint Press Conference.
Middle Ground

One can only hope this a mix of principle and expediency with a large pinch of face-saving. The South Pacific's "superpowers" can't -- and won't -- give in to Bainimara, and for the same mix of reasons Bainimarama can't -- and won't-- give in to them.

There is, of course (because there must be) a middle ground that would revolve around multi-lateral, one-step-after-the-other, concessions to speed up the process: Speed is at the centre of the issue. Speed fast enough to satisfy AusNZ, and convince Fiji citizens that real progress is being made, but not so fast Bainimarama has insufficient time to at least embed, if not fully achieve,  the changes he desires

What steps can be taken?
Fiji could accept some members of the old political parties into the citizen dialogue process (and later constititional and electoral dialogues) on the understanding that they publically accept the priniciples of the People's Charter and the need for electoral reform, including the abolition of race-based parties.  Once the Media Decree is in place the PERS emergency could be lifted, and some reasonable accommodation sought with the Methodist Chuch in exchange for their oath to permanently refrain from party politicking, and desist from misinforming world-wide Methodism about the causes for their present position.

In return, AustNZ could offer legal, technical and financial help to speed up investigations into corruption, and assist with legal reform, media reform, civil service reform, land reform and land use, and other items of the Roadmap.

Of symbolic but no less important, AustNZ would send out really good vibes to Fiji if it asked the Commonwealth (which acted in the first place on their prompting) to readmit Fiji into the Commonwealth Games because "progress" was being made.  One sanction less will not ease the pressure on Fiji but this one could well be the "test of sincerity" Fiji says it wants.

Further concessions should see AustNZ actively encouraging Fiji's participation in all the regional institutions and processes from which it has restricted access or been totally excluded. At some stage the Commonwealth and the EU could also  be persuaded to resume their aid and othe assistance to Fiji. We could also reduce pressure on the UN on Fiji peacekeepers.

If most or many of these steps could be taken, Fiji should be able to bring elections forward to 2013 or even 2012.


Before then, each positive step taken by Fiji should be taken as "progress" by AustNZ leading to further steps and, with each step taken, Fiji will see we really are their friends in need and deed.  Once a firm election date is set, all sanctions should be lifted with Fiji returned to its rightful place in the community of nations.

Other Players, the First Move, a Special Committee?
There are, of course, other important players, in Fiji and overseas.  In Fiji, the most influential include the media, the Methodist Church, the more moderate politicians, chiefs, trade unions, and non-government organizations. If they are seen to be supporting the steps forward, success is assured and the  more extreme elements will become irrelevant to Fiji's future.  The AustNZ media, that for the most part has made the situation worse,  also need  to be better informed and more supportive of positive change.

Who makes the first move?
AustNZ with the Commonwealth Games, Pacer Plus, the regional organizations mentioned by Richard Herr? Or Fiji by lifting PERS, being more inclusive and tolerant of constructive debate and criticism, by retracting its latest restrictions on the Methodist Church, by revoking no further pensions, and improving its PR and speaking with one voice. One stray public remark could seriously set the process back.


A Special Diplomatic Committee?
The ball is probably already rolling behind the scenes, but until more senior diplomats are installed in Suva, Wellington and Canberra, a special diplomatic committee representing the three countries, housed at the Forum headquarters in Suva, with hot lines to their respective ministers, could help push things forward and, just as important, ratchet up each step and stop it sliding back.





Update: That the Ministers have reported some progress and have agreed to meet again may seem an anti-climax but we may be assured discussions will continue at different levels. This "feels" more like the end of the beginning than the beginning of the end.


22 comments:

joe said...

The election date may be brought foward if A/NZ assist in the drafting of a new constitution. They may also help us by sending Andrew hughes back to face the music here. On the contrary, why should we rush into an election when the majority is happy with this govt. Isnt democracy all about "majority rules"? We have one right now. 68% supported the peoples charter 2yrs ago, and indications are that the figure (68%) has increased. All we want is an accountable, transparent and clean govt, and our neighbors have a problem with that?

Cama said...

That 68% was far from transparent or clean.

Red Dragon said...

Red Dragon

We still need an understanding and acceptance from the International Community: all countries which intend to have any future relationship with Fiji.

Acts of terrorism have taken place within Fiji in the past and the residue continues to infect the atmosphere. A Cabal of Corruption has allowed further terrorist acts to be plotted and planned. Capacity must be urgently built to address these matters. The Fiji population must begin to see benefits which are tangible to them and equity in distribution demonstrated throughout the country. Women must receive special consideration along with all children. Their lives have been blighted through fear and constant violence. The new decrees appear to consider this but will the Fiji Police implement and enforce the new laws fully and fairly? This is still a big question.

TheMax said...

Explosive testimony by military intelligence on the plot to kill Bainimarama. Well, well, well.

No wonder ANZ have been trying their very best to isolate Fiji from PIF so that their master plan for Pacific island subjugation continues unabated. Well, we can say that it continues apace.

The problem ANZ now have in their stand against Bainimarama's leadership is that it continues to expose their devious plans that they've been working on since the colonial admin left Fiji back in the 60/70s.

So this democracy that ANZ, US and UK are really promoting is nothing but an illusion. Democracy gives them the opportunity to do whatever they want to ensure their master plans for world domination continues. no wonder the world is always at war.

joe said...

This assassination plot case will surely rake in some big fish. No stone should be left unturned. I think our Asian friends should be asked to provide security because this will be one hell of a case. The picture is now clearer as to why the huge rush to restore democracy. I think Ratu Inoke should be given immunity from prosecution if he turns informer and spills his guts. He knows a lot, I am sure.

Crosbie Walsh said...

The Max and Joe, We may hope for a guilty verdict but the trial has hardly started before you have passed judgement.

I don't think there's any link between the trial and the call for early elections. AustNZ have been asking for that since Day One of the Coup.

Fiji needs improved relations with AusNZ and we should welcome steps in that direction along the lines I've indicated in the posting. Support me in this. Croz

snoopy said...

Croz - Having early elections will be a negative. Many of the changes that the Banimarama Govt is making will have substantial long term benefits. It takes a while for substantive changes to be made to the culture, thinking and Governance of a country.

There are many elites from the previos adminstrations waiting on the sidelines ready to spin their lies and take Fiji back to where it had fallen - corruption, incompetence, racial divide.

It is a big positive that there is dialogue at such a high level. THe fact a Fiji Govt Official was allowed to travel to Canberra is an important signal. Pls don't expect the ANZ Govt to do a 180 degree turn - it would be too embarassing for them. The changes seem to be coming slowly but surely.

joe said...

Point taken Croz. It is likely that a Federal election will be called in Aust late this year followed by NZ election in 2011. I am sure the silent majority (ex Fijians and their sympathisers) in these 2 countries will take a hard look at their respective govt's foreign policies in relation to the situation in Fiji at these elections.

Media red herring said...

The ABC story about the Foreign Minister not having the necessary authority to run foreign policy has an element of truth. Kubuabola can't do anything without the PM's say so and spends a lot of his time second guessing Frank before acting on anything. Nevertheless, it's ridiculous to speculate that the engagement talks with Australia mean little because of that rift. As if the FM would travel to Australia without the visit being part of a strategic move involving the PM. This is the trouble with reporting like this, seizing on a half truth to extrapolate that the entire Fiji foreign affairs effort is emasculated in some way by a non existent conflict of personalities or interests. Frank has so many portfolios that it's only natural that he's occasionally stretched. But he's a dictator, after all, and nothing happens without his consent or, for that matter, the consent of the Military Council. Ratu Inoke has to tread this fine line in his own decision making but then so does every other cabinet minister or major decision maker in Fiji. It doesn't diminish the initiative itself, as the ABC report sets out to imply in a quite inaccurate and mischievous way.

From little things big things grow said...

Croz, I don't know what you expected but from your analysis here, you seem disappointed that world peace and an end to poverty and misery weren't achieved at the tripartite summit. It's only a tentative start and nothing can be read into the flaccid declarations that emerged. There was too much face to be lost by any side making too much of these proceedings. So just rejoice in the news, as Maggie Thatcher once famously said, and look forward to more talks and a gradual thawing of the present ice cap. Nothing good could come of not making any effort to engage. Much good can come in doing an about -face and starting the process of what will be a very long talanoa. It's going to be an agonisingly slow process to get these regional heavyweights to end the constant sparring of the last three years. But at least it's started.

Getting real said...

Croz, there will be no early election so why bother to canvass the possibility? Australia and NZ know this and haven't made it a precondition for "engaging" with the regime in the limited way they have. Demanding an early poll is just an echo of a fading policy totally predicated on the regime buckling under the weight of sanctions and international disapproval. It didn't happen so realpolitik is kicking in. The Aussies and Kiwis can't maintain face by changing their rhetoric overnight. But the about-face of meeting Kubuabola and stressing the need for engagement shows that they're willing to betray the pro-democracy lobby for their wider strategic interests. They've decided that four more years of Fiji going it alone with a foreign policy they can't control and domestic policies they can't influence is worse than four more years of dictatorship. The Americans have also been getting impatient, worried that its ANZUS allies are obsessed with principle while allowing less benign elements to slip into their own backyard. Make no mistake. The main game is regional stability and keeping a wary eye on China. It's clearly ridiculous that the US ambassador in Suva has had regular access to the regime all along while Australia and NZ have no relationship at all.

TheMax said...

@ Croz

Did you know that at the height of the standoff bw Bainimarama and Qarase in 2006, ambassadors from ANZ and US went up to Nabua military camp? It was said at that time that the ambassadors wanted to influence the then Commander Land Force to arrest Bainimarama and takeover leadership of the RFMF.

The plan to arrest Frank did not eventuate as the leaders at RFMF knew all too well what was happening. They knew why these countries wanted Frank removed. They knew who the big fishes are/were who have been scheming to control Fiji using all sorts of reasonings to mask their devious plans. Race and fear were continually used to manipulate the minds of leaders in the Methodist church, GCC, the indigenous Fijians, the general populace, etc.

The one shining light out of all these scheming was Bainimarama's resolve to put an end to all these manipulation and corruption. Yet, what happened was that ANZ orchestrated a campaign to demonize Bainimarama and his leadership. Fortunately for the RFMF and Fiji as a sovereign nation, the younger officers had the heart and the resolve to stand firm with their leader and bust open the web of deceit and corruption that has been poisoning this country since 1987.

I'm sure most of you who have been reading some of my comments would probably think I want ANZ out of Fiji for good. This is really not the case. I'm just frustrated with their scheming all these years to subjugate Fiji politically and economically when they knew bloody well that as we are all victims of British colonial rule, our destinies are more or less one - we will always remain closely related because of that legacy. Why tamper with something that has become traditional and established? Now, this "we are friends of Fiji" being peddled around by ANZ leaders, to me, is just an illusion when their devious plans for geo-political control of Fiji has been busted wide open for everyone to see.

Thank you Frank. You are a man of honour. Your kind comes once in a civilization.

MJ said...

Wait a minute. Now we read that Kubuabola carries no weight with Frank, and this has resulted in a negative reaction. But when Leweni was nominated to New Zealand, and he is definately a heavy hitter in the Fiji government, there are also negative reports. Come on, you can't have it both ways. This is typical example of how the Aust/NZ media have reported on the Fiji situation, by twistiny any situation to put a negative spin on it for the Fiji government.

qanibulu said...

Sanctions and travel bans, as instruments of enforcing political will, have their use-by dates.

As situations evolve, these tools lose their effectiveness. What was once considered the winning option three years ago can easily become can a testament to ones ignorance if not re-evaluated in light of changes that have taken place.

Travel bans and sanction against the IG of Fiji have now gone past their use-by date. They are no longer effective tools in the current climate.

If Oz and NZ are hoping that thie will give them maximun leverage they are kidding themselves. As in economics, the law of diminishing returns applies in this political standoff.

The policy works against you after a certain point.

Westie said...

@ The Max - Spot on!!!

Son of Fiji said...

With China's recent announcement to begin to have their own military installations erected around the globe ala USA, what are the chances that these are part of Australia & NZ's typical knee-jerk reactions to a "what-if we lost control of the Pacific" scenario.

As always, time will tell.

TheMax said...

@ Son of Fiji

ANZ will lose Fiji and the rest of the Pacific if they continue with their current foreign policy. Why do they have to go about with their devious geo-political plan of subjugating Pacific island country sovereignty when most Pacific island countries see them as real friends since we are all victims of British colonial rule? The British left behind their systems and a relationship that most Pacific island countries treasure as a tradition given to their forefathers. So why tamper with tradition?

I feel sorry for ANZ citizens who love the Pacific and come over to set up businesses and residences out of genuine love and interest rather than devious natures like their own government's foreign policy of total control exposed as a result of their stand against Bainimarama and other incidences like the Julian Moti affair.

The Julian Moti affair is a result of Australia’s subversive activity in the Solomon Islands and in the Pacific as a whole. They try to demonize and discredit an educated person whom they cannot control but who is capable of providing the legal advice to the SI government that may be counter-productive to their own interest which is total subjugation. Now ANZ are doing it to Bainimarama and hence Fiji. This is being done to Fiji not because Bainimarama executed a coup but rather because they can’t control him. The ANZ governments may have concluded long ago that Frank’s vision is a threat to their geo-political interest in Fiji.

PACER Plus is proof of ANZ’s economic and political subjugation of PI countries. Sovereignty will be a thing of the past for PI countries once PACER Plus is in full force. If the leader’s of the PI countries doubt what I’m saying, then go ahead and accept and implement PP. The Pacific island people will remain third/fourth class citizens forever. They will never ever have an opportunity to remain an independent sovereign nation. Mark my word. This is a prediction!!!

We're different said...

The Max, ANZ is a bank not a country.

TheMax said...

@ we're different

Whatever.

Jon said...

Mr Crosbie

You note that “..we may hope for a guilty verdict but the trial has hardly started before you have passed judgement…”

In writing ‘we may hope’ your comment clearly shows that you yourself have already passed judgement.

Crosbie Walsh said...

Jon, I used the Royal "we" but, yes, I hope the Court finds some credibility in the story. But I will accept the outcome. Will you?

Jon said...

I will accept the outcome of the Court’s decision since, whatever that outcome may be, it would be foolish not to.

I have no hope that the court will, or will not, find credibility in the story. I merely expect the court to assess the evidence presented and to make a fair judgement.

Whether one is pro- or anti- the defendants, to hold any other position is tantamount to having prejudged them.

I apologise for writing ‘Mr Crosbie’ in my earlier posting - of course, I meant to write ‘Mr Walsh’.