This is a long posting but so much can happen in some weeks. You may prefer to read it in more than one sitting.
Don't forget to read, read the comments, and comment (using your real name or a pseudonym) and on the earlier postings numbered 1-5.
International reactions
Internationally, congratulations to the new government flooded in, New Zealand improved on its previous unwarranted travel advisory, Fiji is giving consideration to its re-admittance as a full member to the Commonwealth, it attended a Pacer Plus meeting on its own terms, and the EU looks likely to resume its aid to the country. The PM is in New York where he will speak at the United Nations on Monday. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon congratulated the PM on the conduct of the elections and its result; he hoped Fiji would continue to play a leadership role in regional development, particularly as the world moves toward the challenges of the Post-2015 Development Agenda, and he thanked Fiji for its peacekeeping role in the Middle East.
The Election results
The Multinational Observer Group has left having given a green light on the election results, despite claims of major irregularities and vote rigging by some opposition groups.
The elections office has satisfactorily answered some concerns about electoral irregularities, notably the delay in in the arrival of ballot boxes from Lau, changes between preliminary and final figures, the slow release of final figures, and questions of safe storage. All ballot papers will be retained for six months at a secure facility in Lami.
PDP and NFP have withdrawn their objections but SODEDLPA says it will follow through with its call for a parliamentary enquiry into the election.
My view is that SODELPA would be better advised to let the issue rest. It is beginning to sound like sour grapes. It will not be successful in trying to get the matter discussed in Parliament because it does not have the numbers, and it would be far better to focus on other issues and on analyzing what went wrong in their election campaign, which Ro Teimumu also promises.
With so many chiefs and two paramount chiefs in their parliamentary line up, she might also heed the advice of the Ratu George Cakabou, a likely contender for the Kubuna paramount title, that chiefs should more directly serve their people, and stay out of party politics.
Whatever. If SODELPA is to survive as a possible government, it needs to create a new, less chiefly, more multi-racial image for itself as a party "for the people" before the next election.
The future of the small parties
The future of the small parties is uncertain. It's my opinion that the United Freedom Party will fade away but the One Fiji party could still be around at the next election.
Division still wracks the FLP (how can it be otherwise with Mahendra Chaudhry still leading the party) and former PDP leader Felix Anthony promises to keep Fiji first to its promise to restore human and trade union rights. He looks forward to the tabling of the Auditor-General's report as also promised, and the increase of FNPF employer's contributions to 10 per cent.
It will not have escaped notice that had the FLP not divided, the combined vote given to FLP and PDP would have been sufficient for them to have passed the 5% threshold and win 2-3 seats in Parliament. Division is typically a hallmark of the political left, usually on ideological grounds, but in Fiji it is more the procuct of divisive personalities. If Chaudhry would step down, there's a good chance of reconciliation between the FLP and PDP and the emergence (or re-emergence) of a single, united party. But I wouldn't take bets of MC agreeing.
The new Cabinet (full list at end of article)
The new Cabinet was sworn in, and for the first time Fiji has a woman Speaker, Dr Jiko Luveni. Altogether, there will be eight women in the next parliament, fewer than hoped for from the proportional representative system, but more than previous parliaments.
I think this is one weakness of the open list system. The closed list system, where the parties —and not the public— rank candidates, would have assured parties of a better gender and ethnic balance, and the mix of talents they need in Parliament.
Church-State relations
The ugly face of church-state relations was again seen last week. The PM struck out at the Methodist Church over a letter that had been sent out to its divisions calling on church members to vote for parties that mentioned God in their manifestos. Even a numbskull could see this was saying: Don't vote for Fiji First; vote for SODELPA. The PM irreverently (sic!) called the church leaders a bunch of liars. The church President-Elect Rev. Tevita Banivanua later said he was unaware of the letter but would be looking into it. One might hope so or he's likely to see more members lost to the pentacostals and not be on the best of terms with the new Government.
The blogs
The blogs were a little quieter this week, with a little less name-calling and a little more discussion on the reasons for FijiFirst's political victory. My blog, as indicated by the last postings numbered 1 to 5, will now try to encourage more reader thought, comments and discussion on particular issues facing the nation. Your ideas for topics are most welcome.
Dennis Singh on Facebook's Fiji Economic Forum made several observations that deserve a wider audience. His wrote:
1. Sodelpa got done by the 'limuri' effect [People saying one thing to please, and doing another thing] 2. Majority of itaukei would not want to vote out their right to fair and equal lease money distribution by voting out incumbent. 3. First time since 1987 Fijians of Indian ethnicity have voted overwhelmingly for an Itaukei leader. Dr Bavadra being last.4. #279 did amazingly well in many itaukei village voting centres, even more so in the West, in one village he got around 90% of the votes. 5. Itaukei's are not gullible, they respectively listen to chiefs and high chiefs at pocket meetings, but come election day, they make their own minds. 6. Social media has helped many to be better informed. Vodafone! Power to You! 7. Mick Beddoes and MPC are bad losers. 8. Unions may rest in peace.9. AG was badly underestimated. 10. Frank never swayed away from his focus, a united and multiracial Fiji.
Dr Narsey to the rescue
Dr Waden Narsey blames everyone else for the FijiFirst victory. But in retrospect he now sees how the Bainimarama Government set the stage for a FijiFirst win. And in some ways he is correct.
It remained in government right up to the elections, rejecting the Yash Ghai recommendation it stand down well before the elections, and was thus in a position to use government resources and what he called last minute policy vote buying. The new Constitution called for multi-ethnic parties, a single constitution, a small 50 seat Parliament, and a 5% threshold, all of which favoured FijiFirst.
But a contrary argument is also valid if it is recognized that the old-style political framework was an impediment to a 21st Century Fiji. There was every likelihood, had there been no changes, that Fiji would have reverted to the divisive ethnic politics of the past, re-fuelling hatred and distrust. The last eight years would count for nothing.
It is no secrect that Government's main task has been to establish the foundations for a new Fiji, and it could not do this without removing some of the foundations of the old Fiji, in particular the voting system. Hence, Bainimarama's constant call for a "change in mindset" and the need for "nation-building." It is no accident that all citizens are now "Fijians" or that the name of the PM's party is FijiFirst.
However, while the future is by no means assured, it is tempting to believe that Graham Davis is not too far off the mark when he writes about a "new democracy."
The doomsayers and the economy
Dr Wadan Narsey hasn't been the only doomsayer on the Fiji economy but, as an economist, he was presumably one of the more qualified.
Between them, Wadan and other doomsayers had Fiji on its knees with little hope of recovery. GDP was down, business confidence low, inflation and food prices had gone through the roof, poverty was rampant, the casino development was a write-off, the sugar industry was gutted, FNPF members had been cheated, its money was being used for risky investment, and the Government had been borrowing at a rate that would be a burden for generations yet unborn. And that was only some of it!
The economy as others see it
But Economics is not an exact science and many, if not most, economists would not agree with Wadan or the doomsayers.
ANZ's CEO for Fji and the Pacific, Vishnu Moha, for instance, spoke far more optimistically of the Fiji economy. In discussing trade, he noted:
The bank CEO spoke of signs of "robust"economic health and "strong" investor confidence.
The ADB assessement
The Asia Development Bank also paints a very different picture:
In sum, economic confidence comes from the type of economic policies being pursued by Government, boosted by the stability that should result from the elections.ANZ's CEO for Fji and the Pacific, Vishnu Moha, for instance, spoke far more optimistically of the Fiji economy. In discussing trade, he noted:
Total trade between Fiji and the world increased to about $US3billion ($F5b) in 2013, an increase from $US1b ($F1.8b) five years ago and more than double a decade ago.
Fiji had increasingly tapped Asian supply chains for trade, adding 43.6 per cent of trade last year was with Asia and the Pacific Islands. This ratio, Mr Mohan said, had climbed from 25 per cent a decade ago.
"Total trade flows between the Pacific and Asia have risen from $US1.7b ($F3.2b) in 2000 to almost $US10b ($F18b) in 2013.
Australian trade with Fiji, nearly $US450million ($F854m) in 2013, however, appears to have "been a steady state level as over the past 15 years total trade has averaged $US458m ($F870m) between the two countries."
The bank CEO spoke of signs of "robust"economic health and "strong" investor confidence.
The ADB assessement
The Asia Development Bank also paints a very different picture:
Fiji continues to grow solidly, and the economy remains on track for a fifth consecutive year of expansion.
The gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for 2014 has been revised up by half a percentage point to 3.3%, based on strong growth in the first half in visitor arrivals and export earnings - particularly from sugar and mineral water. Growth is expected to remain robust, but is seen to ease slightly as sharp increases in consumption and investment expenditures in 2013 are likely to moderate.
The 2015 growth projection is maintained at 3.0%, but this is subject to significant upside and downside risks. Reduced uncertainty following the September elections is seen to boost investment and tourism, and the overall economy is expected to strengthen with reintegration and renewed engagement with development partners.
However, factors seen to temper growth in 2015 include: ongoing dry weather conditions that are expected to persist into next year and lower output of agricultural goods besides sugar; and possible fiscal tightening after recent expansions in public expenditure.
Analysis, and more coming
Finally, for a surprisingly accomplished report for a young journalist as she covered the elections, listen to what AUT journalism student Alistar Kata has to say about what she saw and heard. I think she assembled its many conflicting parts into a most convincing whole — and she did not even need to look at notes!
Soon, in the new year, we can expect to see more detailed analyses of the Bainimaram Government legacy and the election results. Dr Steve Ratuva is editing one book and ANU is likely to produce another.
As some of you know, I'm writing a review for Steve's book on the influence of the media, especially the social media, on the elections, and for this I need lots of people of different political beliefs, to complete this short survey. If you already completed it, my many thanks, and if you will now complete it, my many thanks in anticipation.
Would all readers please bring the survey to the attention of family, friends and colleagues, in Fiji and overseas, who support the different parties, especially SODELPA, NFP and the minor parties.
Vinaka vakalevu.
Croz
The New Cabinet
Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama will lead a 20-member cabinet in the newly-elected Fijian government.
Former Attorney General, Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum is now the Minister for Finance, Public Enterprise, Trade and Tourism while lawyer,
Faiyaz Koya is the Attorney General and Minister for Justice.
Former Permanent Secretary for Justice Mereseini Vuniwaqa has been appointed Minister for Lands and Mineral Resources.
The former CEO for Fiji Pine Trust, Osea Naiqamu is the new Minister for Fisheries and Forests.
Former Special Administrator of Ba and Lautoka, Praveen Kumar is the new Minister for Local Government, Housing and Environment.
The former PS in the Prime Minister’s Office, Col. Pio Tikoduadua is the Minister for Infrastructure and Transport.
Former Labour Minister, Jone Usamate has been appointed Minister for Health and Medical Services.
Ratu Inoke Kubuabola has retained the portfolio of Minister for Foreign Affairs.
Inia Seruiratu has also retained the position of Minister for Agriculture, Rural Development and National Disaster Management.
Former Transport Minister, Timoci Natuva is the new Minister for Immigration, National Security and Defence.
Former Commerce Commission chairman, Dr Mahendra Reddy is the new Minister for Education, Heritage and Arts.
And retired senior army officer, Jioji Konrote has been appointed Minister for Employment, productivity and Industrial Relations.
The new Minister for Youth and Sports is Laisenia Tuitubou.
Rosy Akbar is the new Minister for Women, Children and Poverty Alleviation.
Assistant Ministers
Paralympics gold medalist, Iliesa Delana is one of five Assistant Minister appointed.
Iliesa Delana is the new Assistant Minister for Youth and Sports.
Veena Bhatnagar is the Assistant Minister for Health and
Joeli Cawaki has been appointed Assistant Minister for Agriculture, Rural development and disaster management.
Hotelier Lorna Eden is the Assistant Minister for Minister for Finance, Public Enterprise, Trade and Tourism and
Vijay Nath is the Assistant Minister for Education, Heritage and Arts.