Roundup for Friday 15 August



                     By Crosbie Walsh

I've neglected my blog postings for the past 14 days due to a holiday in Malaysia and Singapore. My ipad is not as blog publishing friendly as my notebook.   But I did manage to keep an eye open for Fiji news, as ever looking for something encouraging and useful with the elections now barely a month away.

Unfortunately, too little has changed. The political parties continue to drip feed policies and the names of candidates, alternatively agreeing and disassociating themselves with each other. The same individuals and NGOs continue to made damning statements on the lack of freedom and make dire predictions about the unfairness of an election that has not yet been held. NZ's Amnesty International repeats the old claims of the aforementioned NGO's. 

Bainimarama's New Zealand Visit

In New Zealand, AUT's Pacific Media Watch ran a heading "NZ Protesters Challenge Bainimarama's Election Visit." The Wellington DominionPost called on people to support Sai Lealea and Richard Naidu's call for a march to protest Bainimarama's visit to Auckland.

Some 30 protesters turned up and the media reported their objections and the odd interjection from an otherwise hugely supportive audience of close to 2,000. Little of what Bainimarama said was reported, and he was only interviewed by NZ Indian Radio Tarana and blogger Cameron Slater.

The mainstream media coverage says much about the use of media freedom in my country.

The Crazy Bloggers
On the blogs, Ram Gopal Sharma called me "A failed political hack who curries favour for the highest bidder. Falla has no idea what hes talking about!"

Another comment warned that with Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum (a Sunni Muslim) taking over the country after the election, the Syrian army and navy (mainly Shiite Muslims!) would come to the dictator's assistance. Australia chose this moment to renew its travel advisory. Visitors to Suva were warned about the high crime rate and the possibility of civic disturbances. I will stop there before it gets even crazier.

Ro Teimumu
Speaking to Nabudrau villagers in Rewa Ro Teimumu said "We can only pray for the results of the 2014 elections “This is really about the people of this country, the vanua and God,’’ she said.

She had doubts about the integrity of the elections because" We don’t have the Commonwealth and the European Union observers like we had before. It’s going to be hard but we really can’t dictate anything to this government.’’

With an  Australian-led 14-nation observer team, I can't see how it will be any less vigilant that other observer teams at earlier elections.  Could it be she's looking for an excuse in case SODELPA polls much worse than expected?  

Elections
On the elections, candidate nominations close on Monday (18th August); a machine will randomly allocate candidate numbers; Mahendra Chaudhry lost his court appeal and will not be standing (though he insists he is still the FLP leader); the only Independent candidate, Roshika Deo has registered with 2,790 signatures; unionist Daniel Urai looks likely to be standing for the PDP; and there's some uncertainty whether Jone Dakavula will be a NFP candidate.

The NFP has distanced itself from Ro Reimumu's claim that there cannot be equal citizenry, and  NFP. FLP and PDP have questioned SODELPA's intended resurrection of the divisive Qoliqoli Bill. They had all earlier distanced themselves from Ro Teimumu's call for Fiji to be declared a Christian state.  With such fundamental differences in policy, how can any of them seriously consider any sort of alliance with SODEPLA?

The Fiji Sun has a useful summary of party policies and an article by Cameron Slater on the mechanics of the election

As of 30 June, the Fijian Elections has registered approximately 570,000 voters.

Polls
An informal Fiji Broadcasting  poll indicates that about 19% of eligible voters will not vote, somewhat less than the proportion (24%)  not registered according to Sun-Razor polls.

The latest polls by Tebbutt and Razor show Bainimarama and FijiFirst are still way in front as the preferred PM and political party.  The Tebbutt polls say this support is across all ethnicities, ages and gender, but Taukei support has dropped a little. SODELPA has improved its placing and is favoured by 31% of Taukei, 15% of Other voters, and 1% of Indo-Fijians.  Razor does not provide a comparable demographic breakdown of results.

Some Government opponents claim the Fiji Sun-Razor poll is biased in favour of Bainimarama and FijiFirst. They are happier with the Fiji Times-Tebbutt poll that definitely does not support Bainimarama.  Dr Wadan Narsey says the differences are not necessarily due to unfairness by Razor: there are margins of error in all polls and the margin is likely to be larger when sample size is small.

Razor samples 600 people and Tebbutt over 1,000.  The difference is also likely to be caused by sample location and person selection. Razor interviews 600 people weekly at bus stops in the Western (Central and Northern Division. Tebbutt uses random household sampling in urban and peri-urban areas, and this is their first political poll since May. A third factor that makes comparison even more difficult is the apparently different treatment of "undecided" and "decline to answer" responses.

The  most recent Razor results on preferred PM has Bainimarama at 86% (the 10% increase from the previous week is as likely to be due to small sample size as to increased popularity), Ro Teimumu at 9%, Biman Prasad 3%, and Felix Anthony and Mahendra Chaudhry on 1% each, making a total of 100%.

Razor  apparently had no undecided and decline to state responses in this latest poll, though they included these responses in earlier surveys.

By comparison, Tebbutt has Bainimarama at 60%, Ro Teimumu at 17% (double her support in May), Biman Prasad at 3%, FLP's Lavinia Padarath and Felix Anthony at 1% each, and two others at under 1% each, making a total of 82%

A further 11% were undecided (down from 20% at the earlier poll in May) and 7% declined to state. If these people are added, the total comes to 100%.

Both poll results must  be considered with caution. All that can be safely concluded is that with four weeks to go before the elections Bainimarama and FijiFirst appear to have the support of well over half of the voters polled.  Their advantage may well be slightly eroded by SODELPA in the weeks to come, but the future of other parties, other than NFP, looks grim indeed. They have a long way to go to cross the 5% threshold needed to elect one MP.

The DominionPost editorial referred to above  urging  opposition to Bainimarama's Auckland visit could not see the illogic of its argument: resist the undemocratic Bainimarama who they admitted "unfortunately" seemed to have the support of most people in Fiji.

Finally
Another response to a Razor poll question does not bode well for the Opposition that continues to criticize Government's management of the economy: Asked "Is the economy better today than before the 2006 Takeover?" 76% said yes, 21% no, and 3% were unsure.

Taking all of this information into account, it is easy to see why Ro Teimumu is praying.


                                                     -----

FIJI LEAKS provides some useful background papers on a number of election-related issues.

Comments

Patriot said…
All the old crap will be assigned a nice tag of goodbye and a small footnote of history. My vote to anyone/any party that looks after its people. I sleep better at night, economy is upbeat, education is available and accessible(lets not compare what is free or not), medical facilities has improved, roads are improving, overall everything has improved. The votes will indicate just how strongly things have improved. The older parties will be soundly defeated. Some oldies will still be clinging onto their faint hope that they will be back. I give SOLDELPA a small chance of maybe 20% vote, PDP, NFP, FLP will be less than 1% but this will be the last time they will around. The PM's party will demolish all the other parties. Looking forward to the elections. The old politiks will be assigned to history in a months time. As for PIF and Commonwealth, I think we need to chart our own future, Develop a new generation capable of leading this country and make it strong. Independence from AID is very important. We need to stand on our own feet. Aus and NZ can still be friends but on an equal footing. Think of the coup in Thailand - they are still doing well and building relationship with this region. As for AI and the other bragging NGO's they need to help those that really need help (middle east and Ukraine). A small nation like Fiji is doing well - thank you. If you want to talk go and scream where there are real problems..maybe you would like to do a union protest for the world's muzzled media. Anyway, thank you for spending your aid contribution to educate the community. Our votes will indicate who we want to lead. God bless this country. By the way, i am a nationalist and believe in my country becoming independent and strong. This will not happen with the oldies. We need a new outlook!
Anonymous said…
Perhaps we should stop talking about these polls and come out in support of our great leaders instead. The PM has made it abundantly clear when he spoke in New Zealand: He will win all seats in parliament in order to avoid a dysfunctional parliament where the opposition would snipe at him and obstruct progress through unproductive debate. Tune into the broadcast of NZ and Australia parliament sessions and you will understand what I mean. If only a single non Fiji First candidate makes to the parliament our uniquely Fijian style of democracy will be in jeopardy. So, Croz, please stop discussing these irrelevant polls and focus on how to make sure that all seats are won by our great leaders. This is the only way to ensure rapid progress in a truly democratic environment.
Crosbie Walsh said…
@Anonymous 7:23. Both polls certainly seem to indicate that the minor parties, excepting NFP, will have no seats in Parliament. Like you, I'm fearful of an opposition that simply aims at negative snipping. NFP would behave more reasonably than SODELPA.
Anonymous said…
I'm with you croz. There is no place for any opposition in a gloating dictatorship. Best to let the gloating dictators run their own criminal show. As history has shown us recently they end up much faster this way being topped in drainage ditches or dragged out of their holes and strung up.
Anonymous said…
What are you taking about? Our great leader is neither gloating, nor is he a dictator. He enjoys the highest support any leader has ever had in Fiji. For the first time Fiji is a true democracy where the voice of the people, the need of the disadvantaged and the blight of the powerless are considered. Western style democracy is the most overrated concept in the world. Look at the race riots in the USA where blacks are slaughtered by white police. Is this what you want in Fiji?

Popular posts from this blog

Lessons from Africa

Fijian Holdings Scandal: Betrayal by their trusted sons

The Ratu Tevita Saga, Coup4.5, Michael Field, the ANU Duo, and Tonga