Is Fiji's New Voting System Fair?


Emeritus Prof Crosbie Walsh
Opinion by Crosbie Walsh

"Over and over, one hears claims from Bainimarama supporters that Fiji now has the most democratic electoral system ever, in which Indo-Fijians are now finally “equal” to indigenous Fijians, with “1 person = 1 vote = 1 value”-- Dr Wadan Narsey

The Bainimarama government has promoted the slogan "One person=one person=one value" claiming it is a fairer system than the old First Past the Post and Alternative Vote sytems that preceded it.  Dr Wadan Narsey disagrees.

Dr Wadan Narsey
Myth 1, he says,  is that Indo-Fijians were under-represented in the old system, and cites the election victories of  the Bavadra and Chaudhry governments as evidence. My view is that these victories came about because of divisions among Taukei and competition between Taukei parties, not because of the the equal value of the Indo-Fijian vote.

His Myth 2 is that the new system, with its 5% threshold,  is unfair to  independents and smaller parties.

Further, he doubts the new system will promote inter-racial understanding, which he says was better assured with the previous 46 race-based communal  and 25 open electorates (in which all races voted) and  the power-sharing provision, that was supposed to result in any party with ten or more percent of the vote being invited to join government.  

He concedes that  power-sharing was initially unsuccessful with Qarase refusing to allow Chaudhry a place in government but  said that it worked well in the end, even though the parliamentary opposition was effectively reduced to one person, Mick Beddoes.

The supposed myth 1: Indo-Fijian underrepresentation

Wadan is correct is saying Indo-Fijians were not particularly under-represented.  But they were under-represented and they were not alone.

Comparing the value of Ro Teimumu's vote in Rewa in 2006 with Mahrendra Chaudhry's vote in Suva City and Biman Prasad's vote in his old stamping ground Labasa, for example, would show that Ro Teimumu's vote was worth 1.7 times that of Chaudhry's vote and 1.4 times that of Dr Prasad's.

Unequal numbers between types of racially-based electorates

These inequalities are not surprising given the unequal average size of communal electorates.  There were on average 9,437 registered voters in the Fijian communal electorates; 10,775 voters in the Indo-Fijian; 16,065 in the Fijian Urban electorates, 4,606 in the General voters and 5,375 in the single Rotuman electorate.

The most disadvantaged voters were not Indo-Fijian, however; they were Taukei voting in the in Fijian Urban electorates whose votes were worth only one-half the value of the average rural Taukei vote . The most over-represented were Rotuman and General (mixed races) voters.  Mick Beddoes' (General  voter) vote was worth three and a half times that of his ethnic Fijian urban neighbour and over double that of his Indo-Fijian neighbour!

Unequal numbers WITHIN types of electorate

But the inequalities did not stop there. The communal electorates had a very unequal number of voters, ranging from 3,340 (Namosi) to 15,348 (Ba West) and 19,044 for Nadroga/Navosa for Fijian Communal voters;    13 to 19 thousand for Urban Fijians, and 7 to 13 thousand for Indo-Fijians.  This make a Taukei vote in Namosi worth nearly six times more than a Taukei vote in Nadroga/Navosa or or an urban Taukei vote in the North West.

In the 25 Open electorates where everyone voted irrespective of race, the most glaring difference was between Suva City with 15,000 voters and their next door neighbours, Cunningham, with 24,000 voters. In this case, the Suva vote was worth more than one and a half times more than the Cunningham vote.

In summary, the system penalised Indo-Fijians a little and urban Fijians —and many rural Fijians a lot,

A closer look at each electorate would show that, in general,  the more  disadvantaged Fijian voters lived in the urban and more developed provinces where, as a result of better education and exposure to urban influences,  the power of the church and chief pressed less heavily on how they voted.  Whether intentional or not (and I think it was not) more votes were given to those least likely to use them independently.

The Supposed Myth 2: Inequalities due to the 5% threshold

Wadan is again correct in saying that the new system of voting with its 5% threshold will penalise independents and small parties. So also will the reduction of parliamentary seats from  71 to 50 and a single electorate comprising all of Fiji.  But I am not sure this is an undesirable consequence because it should result in a stronger government and less trading of votes in the new parliament.

■ The Old preferential vote system

The new system is  far less undesirable than the preferential and Alternative Vote system that  previously confused many voters. Confronted with so many candidates to rank,  many voters voted "above the line" leaving the party they voted for to decide where their preferences should go.

With candidates requiring 50% of the vote to be elected, the votes of the least preferred candidates were progressively allocated to the candidates remaining, until one passed the 50% threshold.

In the Open electorates this led to fourth preferences being used in two electorates, fifth preferences in five electorates, and seventh and ninth preferences being used in two other electorates.

It is hard to see how the final vote came even close to what those who named candidates by voting "below the line" had intended,. And for those voting "above the line" their chosen party decided where preferences would go, sometimes engaging in temporary alliances to thwart their major opponent.

■ The new Open List system

The new Open List system allows voters to choose any candidate of their choice. In effect, except for votes for independent candidates, voters are voting for a candidate and a party.

Unlike the Closed List system used for example in NZ where parties rank the order of their candidates (and which, incidentally also has a 5% threshold),  voters determine the order by which parties select their candidates.

Waden is correct in saying that the  number of votes for some of those elected could could be less than the threshold votes required of minor parties and independents  but he forgets that votes are passed down the line of list candidates on the basis of the total number of votes cast for all candidates standing for each party. He wrongly compares and confuses individual with party votes.

The 5% threshold may be a little high.  A lower threshold has been suggested in New Zealand. And the number of seats may be too few.  But a decision to modify the electoral system will have to wait until after this election. I doubt the threshold is a Machiavellian device conjured up by the Attorney-General as Wadan and others have inferred.

In the 2006 elections 13% of those registered did not vote and a further 8.8% had their votes declared invalid, mainly for minor technical irregularities.  Polls indicate that a similar proportion may not vote in the coming election but irregularities should be far fewer. Voters can tick, cross or circle their chosen candidate's number.

No electoral system is perfect and some intended outcomes are not as expected.  Fiji's previous voting system was far from perfect, with significant inequalities between races and electorates. And, as Professor Jonathon Fraenkel admits, the alternative vote  (AV), far from helping race relations, multi-racialism and moderation as intended, the system resulted in the emergence of extremism and ethnic polarisation.  Moderates were squeezed out. No truly multi-ethnic party emerged and no government was courageous enough to gradually phase out the Communal  seats and  increase the proportion of Open seats as the Reeves Commission that drafted the 1997 Constitution intended.

A major weakness of the power sharing arrangement of the old system, even when it was working, was that it virtually removed an effective opposition.  It is to be hoped that a virile, responsible opposition will emerge after the September election. There need to be checks on government in any democracy but it is hoped also that the privilege to oppose will not be abused. Assuming that FijiFirst will win the election, I think the NFP and PDP have the makings of an effective and  responsible opposition. Regrettably, I cannot say the same for SODELPA.

The truly multi-ethnic composition of all political parties contesting the election in four weeks time, other than SODELPA which is overwhelmingly Taukei, holds some promise for the future.  The new electoral system has come as close as is humanly possible to make one person=one vote=one value.

The signs are that the new parliament will have more women, more young people, and a wider range of professional talent. But the final outcome, as always with any system,  will depend on the calibre of the individual members of parliament on both sides of the House, and the wisdom and discipline of their leaders.

Comments

Anonymous said…
Croz,

What about FijiFirst/Governments clear moves to effetively reduce the number of opposition candidates ? The election itself will I suspect be fair but the lead up does not seem the same. For almost 7 of the last 8 years no opposition was allowed and political leaders pursued with clear aim to remove them from future elections (Mahen was cleared when part of government but later charged). Most recently we had a lst min changes of rules to exclude good opposition candidates. Noting the 18month rule only effected private individuals not current memeber sof government. Then moves in the last few days to protect a FijiFirst candidate (uwho should not be allowed to stand) and shut out a labour candidate (who clearly should be able to stand). This was done by superviser of elections using a technicality to not accept the electrol commissions findings. Despite the legal outcomes that just does not seem fair or sensible. Effectively the SoE made a mistake and that stands despite the ECs call because the SoE didn't work closely with the EC. This does not feel like a fair lead up.
Anonymous said…
Wadan maeks some good points as you do Croz. Of course yours are more likely to be published in Fiji as media still do not want to offend current government - thats commercial suicide. Times just says nothing, Sun sing the miltaries praise.
Anonymous said…
http://narseyonfiji.wordpress.com/

Worth checking out his site - one sided yes but no more so than the proganda from Government. While not always practical i don't doubt his sense of purpose or belief and commend him for continuing to expose the hypocricy in 8 years of military government
Anonymous said…
What a load of hogwash. How can anyone claim that Fiji will have free and fair elections? Opposition candidates are picked out one after the other, Bainimarama is out on a vote buying spree, police brutality signals to everyone what happens if and best of all we have a "democratic" PM out there who repeats that he wants all seats in parliament.
Anonymous said…
And we all know if frank doesn't win he isn't going to retire to barracks - there will be some condtructed emergency and he will be back in power
Crosbie Walsh said…
Anonymous... I previously commented on the amendment to the Electoral Decree that resulted in the exclusion of Makareta Waqavonovono and have just posted a critical artlcle on the recent Electoral Commission - Supervisor of Elections fiasco. I see wrong in both situations, and have noted them, but I try to be positive and it is imnportant we move on. The freeist and fairest possible election should now be our goal.
Crosbie Walsh said…
True about the media. The Times is, I think, unnecessarily timie, and the Sun, thought pro-government, does publish most on the elections, with all parties having a say.
Crosbie Walsh said…
Wadan and I were once colleagues and I have a lot of respect for many of his opinions. In the case at issue, I think he ignored very unfair features of the old voting system and placed too much importance on the role of the 5% threshhold.
Crosbie Walsh said…
You may note that the Tui Macuata has denounced the statements by Coup4.5 and FijiLeaks that he has switched sides. He still supports FijiFirst, and is pleased the GCC was abolished.
Crosbie Walsh said…
Understandable speculation but what may happen if he wins? Will elements in SODELPA accept the result? Will you?
Anonymous said…
NFP gave SDL preference and helped SDL win and got themselves a racist government.
Anonymous said…
Preference and communal voting is outdated. How is this a true democracy?
Anonymous said…
Croz and Whaleoil - the happy freeloaders on Fiji
Anonymous said…
Geez mate give us a break , still singing the same song. Get a tissue box and move on.
Anonymous said…
Thanks for your reply, much appreciated. But perhaps I should repeat my post as it has absolutely nothing to do with Macuata:
What a load of hogwash. How can anyone claim that Fiji will have free and fair elections? Opposition candidates are picked out one after the other, Bainimarama is out on a vote buying spree, police brutality signals to everyone what happens if and best of all we have a "democratic" PM out there who repeats that he wants all seats in parliament.
Anonymous said…
SODELPA/SDL has staged several coups before. They will do it again in case they lose!
Anonymous said…
"Opposition candidates are picked out one after the other,..."
I think you are pushing the extreme button here considering there have been a few debatable cases, and 3 springs to mind. In terms of "a load of hogwash", your blatant statement about the election not being free and fair is a laugh. Considering the effort put in place and contribution of other countries from the transparent ballot boxes to the high number of expert observers (even with the recent inclusion of 3 EU election experts), I think you are "clutching on thin straws" here. Yes, the regime came into power through the muzzle of the gun and were not elected democratically, this election is probably going to be one of the most free and fair one. Give credit where its due. The 2006 election under the tenure of a democratically elected government was not free and fair considering the well documented incidences. To give you an example, how can you explain the extra number of ballot papers in boxes that was suppose to have a certain number; some boxes had extra 500 ballot papers in them.
"Bainimarama is out on a vote buying spree"? Have a look around the world mate. That is a nature of so called democratic "gig" dude. Qarase did that with the Agriculture scam and previous PMs did the same. The only difference is Bainimarama stated development especially in the rural areas from the word go. Whilst people like yourself could debate that he started vote buying from 8 years ago, the fact that he targeted rural areas, poor people and those in the outer islands should be applauded. For a change, the rich elite fijians were overlooked. Yes, he came to power through a military coup and I certainly don't condone such illegal actions but crickey maybe that was the only option left. Democracy is great but when its used as a vehicle for a select few to "line up their pockets" then I it makes me re-think whether it's good for my beloved Fiji.
Sa dri yani!
Anonymous said…
Qarase used $23 million to buy votes prior to 2006 coup.
Anonymous said…
@ Anon 4:39 am.The NFP President (Tupou D) says she wants nothing to do with coup-makers. Yet she is prepared to sit in a coalition with SODELPA who, as you say, staged several coups before.! Strewth! Hypocrisy at its best.
Anonymous said…
I always thought its the RFMF that stages coups in Fiji?
Anonymous said…
Not on this blog. Like the Fiji Sun and MINFO - facts are irrelevant.

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